Battleground 2014: Regional parties flex muscles

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

With the announcement of candidates by Samajwadi Party for the Lok Sabha elections of 2014, the ball has been set rolling, triggering speculations that the polls could be advanced. Given the fact that the ruling Congress is on a weak footing and is still battling several charges hurled against it at regular intervals throughout its second innings at the Centre, it is extremely unlikely that the party would go for a snap poll.

But what has come as a surprise, 18 months before the polls, is the positioning of various regional parties in several states and their attempt to reinvent themselves in the run up to the elections. Regional parties have realised that they could perhaps be the kingmakers and are making appropriate strategy anticipating a fluid political situation after the general elections. For some of these regional parties, neither UPA is untouchable nor the NDA. In fact, a few have gone for a flexible ideological stand which could make them fit either in the NDA, UPA or the so called Third Front, a conglomeration of regional parties, if it indeed comes into existence before the polls.

Take for instance the ruling Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. It is practically in the UPA, extending outside support to the ruling coalition. The party is now aspiring to lead the Third Front with its chief Mulayam Singh Yadav looking at the chair presently occupied by Manmohan Singh. That perhaps explains the eagerness of the regional outfit to come out with its list of candidates so early. It wants to encash the victory in UP and wants to keep the winning momentum going.

Besides SP, the Bahujan Samaj Party too is extending support to the UPA but can easily absorb itself in Third Front, if at all it comes into existence. For the BSP, even Bharatiya Janata Party is not a pariah as it has shared power with it in UP in the past. So practically, BSP could sail in three boats – UPA, NDA and Third Front.

In neighbouring Bihar, Nitish Kumar led JD(U) is firmly in saddle. For the last almost eight years, it has consistently scotched speculations that it could switch to the UPA from NDA. Given the kind of caste arithmetic the JD(U)-BJP alliance has stitched in Bihar, it could be extremely difficult for Nitish to ditch the BJP and go for Congress and still enjoy the vote base which he has at this point of time. Being an expert in “social engineering”, Nitish realises this well. But for his arch rival, Lalu Prasad Yadav switching sides would be a breeze. The UPA had shunned him in the last polls and would still do so. Trying to remain relevant in state politics after losing two consecutive assembly polls, Yadav has embarked on a state-wide tour and knows that 2014 would be a make or break for him. If he gets the numbers, he could be welcomed back in UPA if he doesn’t, his political obituary can be written safely.

From Bihar, cross over to West Bengal and you find Mamata Banerjee who is presently neither with the UPA nor the NDA. She can never be with the Third Front as it will invariably have the Left which she hates from the core of her heart. I am surprised why the NDA has not tried to win her over after she left the UPA. Her Trinamool Congress could easily put its legs on two boats of UPA and NDA if the situation warrants after the 2014 results. Banerjee wants to keep up the suspense and is playing her cards deftly. The Left Front in the state has three options – either stay neutral the way it is right now, go with the confederation of the regional parties which could perhaps be led by Mulayam Singh or extend outside support to UPA on the plea of “keeping the communal forces away” if the BJP comes at a sniffing distance of the magic figure, essential to form the government.

Odisha is next in line where Naveen Patnaik has kept both the Congress and the BJP at arms length. In successive elections, Congress was completely decimated in the state but remains the only opposition party worth the name as BJP has little presence in most parts. Patnaik could switch between NDA and Third Front post 2014 if indeed he gets the numbers and they are vital for government formation.

Taking the Coromandel Coast, we now reach Andhra Pradesh where an interesting political battle is likely to take place. Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress is fledging its muscles even as TDP has become irrelevant over a period of time. The Telengana issue too is on the boil. Jagan’s party has the potential to cause severe damage to Congress as the bye-election results have shown. But I suspect that if the Congress and CBI decide to go soft on him (like they did to Mayawati and Mulayam Singh in UP) he would hardly have much grouse in extending outside support to UPA. For that matter, he could also support NDA or the Third Front in lieu of their help in a series of cases registered against him ever since he left Congress.

In Tamil Nadu, there is little to speculate. While one regional party goes with the UPA, the other goes with the NDA. There would be little surprise if AIADMK goes with NDA while the DMK remains with the UPA. But my suspicion is that both the parties would compete with each other to support whoever comes to power post May 2014.

Kerala, Maharashtra and Punjab have a well settled alliance system and it has been going on a similar pattern for the last almost two decades. It is unlikely to change. NCP-Congress alliance versus the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance in Maharashtra and the LDF versus UDF in Kerala are well established. In Punjab, the Akali Dal and BJP have been together for a long time now and after being voted for the second time in a row, would be looking to consolidate.

But the battleground of Haryana could be interesting. While BJP has allied with the Kuldeep Bishnoi led Haryana Janhit Congress to form a non-Jat alliance, a section of the BJP wants that the alliance with Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal be revived. In the 2009 assembly polls, had BJP fought the elections with INLD, Congress could have been wiped out from the state. Striving for political relevance before elections, Chautala is looking to either become the fulcrum of the so called Third Front or get into the NDA fold. It would be interesting to see if both Bishnoi and Chautala can be adjusted in NDA ahead of 2014. It would be a political masterstroke of the BJP if it indeed manages to do that. (November 19, 2012)

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/109584-battleground-2014-regional-parties-flex-muscles.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/109709-battleground-2014-regional-parties-flex-muscles-.html

Congress’ bogey of economic reforms

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

After a Cabinet reshuffle and a brainstorming session called samvad baithak, Congress believes it is battle ready for 2014 even though the next agenda on card is the Assembly election of Gujarat, barely a month from now.

If Congress wins Gujarat then barring any serious political accident, no party can prevent UPA from coming to power at the Centre for the third consecutive term in 2014. The grand old party would be on a roll. On the other hand, even if the ruling BJP is returned to power in the Narendra Modi led State, it cannot be assured of leading a coalition Government of the NDA in New Delhi. BJP, in any case, takes the support of the voters in the State for granted.

The results of Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat would be announced at the same time, in the third week of December. Leave Gujarat, even in Himachal Pradesh, BJP has an edge given the fact that no one is ready to accept the logic of so called economic reforms —hike in the prices of diesel, putting a cap on subsidised LPG cylinders FDI in retail or whatever is there in store for the people. Even die-hard Congress supporters won’t support the Government on LPG cylinders as the entire move looks so illogical from the outset. It cannot bury the charges of corruption simply because it is too big an issue to be brushed under the carpet.

So it appears that the Congress wants the two elections of Himachal and Gujarat to become a referendum on the economic policies of the Centre, sort of laboratory experiment for the party for the future course of action. It wants the voters to forget scams of Commonwealth Games, 2G spectrum, Robert Vadra’s questionable land deals and diverting party funds for National Herald newspaper.  If Congress loses both the States, it can safely abandon the economic reforms, which primarily means removal of subsidies. Politically, both the states don’t matter to the Congress as of now for the simple reason that it hardly has any ambitions in Gujarat which is in the stranglehold of Modi and in Himachal, it can always camouflage its loss by inventing a series of reasons.

I am surprised the way Congress is pushing for the so called economic agenda which in electoral terms are potential disasters. On November 4, it organised a rally in New Delhi not to counter the serial allegations of corruption, wrong doing and irregularities but to support FDI. I don’t think any person would understand the logic of reforms if he is asked to pay around `980 for a LPG cylinder, two and half times the existing rate. What were you doing in the last 8 and half years, people would ask. You could have increased the prices of LPG by `50 every year and this wouldn’t have pinched the pockets of the people the way it would now. But simply, you did not have the guts to do so. Similarly, you turned a blind eye to diesel all these years. You could have increased the prices by `2-3 every year if indeed the oil companies are not passing on their inefficiency to the consumers of LPG and petroleum products.

At the end of the day, all economic policies are aimed to benefit the people and the voters would ask how a particular decision would benefit them. No one would understand the jargons of fiscal deficit, growth rate, subsidies etc unless they see something concrete in front of them helping them get more employment, access to resources and bringing down the rate of inflation. Can you tell a hungry person that he should bear with his hunger as he will get cake and sweets to eat after five years?

Lackluster performance notwithstanding in the last over 8 years, Manmohan Singh is clearly dominating the policy making decision and is influencing the party as well as the Congress president. My suspicion is that the so-called economic reforms would have the same impact as the Indo-US nuclear deal in 2008. Singh staked his government for that deal, the Left withdrew support and we were told that once the deal gets through, there would be power all around for every village, every person. Four years down the line, no one even talks about the deal any more. It has ceased to become an issue at all. No Government or Congress spokesperson ever mentions the thousands of megawatt of power we were supposed to get through nuclear energy. I find both the Indo-US nuclear deal and the economic reforms in the same league — far removed from the issues at the grassroots level politics which helps the party consolidate its base.

Then what could be the reason of the nuclear deal in 2008 and the economic reforms in 2012. The answer perhaps could be diversionary politics, an art which the ruling party has mastered. In 2008, the nuclear deal was not important but getting rid of the Left was. Getting the support of Samajwadi Party and the BSP too was important then as the country was heading for the 2009 elections. The Congress Government at Centre was not bothered about the so-called benefits of the nuclear deal but was certainly interested in realignment of the political forces ahead of the general elections.

A similar situation prevails in 2012 when elections are a year and half away and the government is facing a crisis of credibility, rocked as it has been by a series of allegations, some of which were directed right at the doors of 10 Janpath. You need something to divert the attention of the people. And it was in such a situation that the bogey of economic reforms came handy for the Government and the Congress. The UPA will abandon it the moment the voters forget the mega scams. This is what history suggests. (November 12, 2012)

 http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/108365-congress-bogey-of-economic-reforms.html

http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/108284-congress-bogey-of-economic-reforms.html

Congress finds itself in a quagmire

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

It’s a season of controversies and scams in which those on the top of the pyramid of politics have found themselves in unsavory situation, ruining their immediate political plans. While the Congress was at the receiving end in most of the scandals, BJP too did not get away as the party President himself had to bear the ignominy of a raging controversy involving the finances of his companies.

What has come as a surprise is that for the first time those involved in the scandals are not small time politicians and regional satraps against whom Disproportionate Assets case are registered at random to settle political scores and bully them to submission but those considered the “creamy layer” of Indian politics. Now the so called sacrosanct, who could never have been targeted in the old school of politics, are facing the brunt of the assault given the ease with which information is available in public domain.

The latest to face the music is none other than Congress President Sonia Gandhi and her son and AICC General Secretary Rahul Gandhi who have been accused of getting the finances of the Congress Party  for their company Young Indian. While Subramanian Swamy has for long been considered a loose cannon who could explode anywhere and was known to train guns at the Gandhi family at the slightest pretext without any proof, this time he has done his homework well and brought evidence which the party found difficult to refute.

The knee-jerk reaction – first by the office of Rahul Gandhi and later a battery of  Congress spokespersons, compounded the worst fears of even the Congress supporters. While the office of Rahul threatened to take all action possible under law and denied the allegations of Swamy, the party had a different take on it. It accepted that  money as alleged by Swamy had indeed been given to the company in which Rahul and Sonia have a majority stake and tried to defend the blatant violation of the existing laws governing the political parties of the country. Clearly, the charges of financial irregularities and evasion of taxes had reached the courtyard of 10 Janpath, the residence of the Congress President and 12 Tughlaq Lane, the residence of party General Secretary Rahul Gandhi.

I fail to understand the goof ups made by the oldest party of the country.  If indeed the loan to Young Indian was proper and as per the laws of the land, why didn’t the Congress itself inform about the decision through its mouthpiece “Congress Sandesh” or through one of its spokespersons in the regular party briefing. Why did the party, which claims to be the champion of Right to Information, doing it discreetly when finances of as much as Rs 90 crore was involved. It was not Rs nine or Rs ninety which you give to a beggar on a traffic junction. Don’t the people who trust the party and vote for it in elections, deserve to know what it is doing with the money entrusted to it through donations. 

Had Congress itself disclosed that it is going to revive the newspaper National Herald by giving interest free loans to Young Indian and wants to perpetuate the legacy of Jawahar Lal Nehru, no one would have objected to it. In fact, it would have been the first page news of most newspapers and the lead item in the news channels. The party would have got widespread appreciation for helping out the families of the erstwhile employees of National Herald as Janardan Dwivedi claims now.

But clearly, the party had something to hide. It knew for sure that what it was doing was not allowed as per the existing laws. It chose to be discreet and evasive and is now deliberately going on an overdrive. People expect much more transparency from a party which was founded 127 years ago. Why does the party still believe that in an era of IT revolution when every document can be scanned and brought out in public domain, such a gesture of loaning Rs 90 crore would remain a secret? This is not the 1950s.

Earlier, Robert Vadra, son-in-law of the Congress President found himself in the middle of questionable land deal and unsecured loans indicating quid pro quo. This was the beginning when the credentials of a family member and financial dealings came under scanner. Now when more and more information is reaching public domain, no one knows how much more muck, most of which is going to stick, will flow at the directions of the top bosses.

Assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh were held just at a time when Swamy was through with his allegations and the Congress found itself in a tight spot defending the charges. Many voters, the young ones in particular, would now be wondering when even the conduct of the top leaders is not beyond suspicion, why should they vote for them. Remember, BJP President Nitin Gadkari is also in the eye of storm for financial irregularities. So both the Presidents of the two main parties – Gandhi and Gadkari – face charges the answers of which are hardly convincing.

So whom do you vote for if you go the polling booth and make corruption as the yardstick? Well, the question is difficult to answer. May be the one who is less corrupt and this is extremely subjective.

There is one big difference between Congress and BJP here where the ruling party finds itself in a much weaker position. Gadkari may not be the face of the BJP and can easily be dumped to take care of his business empire if the heat continues and it finds itself at the receiving end. It won’t really affect the core vote bank of the party. But what about the Congress? The entire party owes its existence to the Gandhis and they symbolize the Congress and vice versa. The party cannot do without them. That is an existential dilemma. In the last 65 years since independence, the family members have been the trump cards for the party and continue to be so.

Then, there is another problem in store for the Congress and Rahul Gandhi in particular. He has been looking to play a bigger role in the party for long and refused to join the Manmohan Singh Cabinet. At a time, when he along with the Congress President, was trying to figure out what this bigger role could be, Swamy came out with the expose. Now, it seems that the bigger role of Gandhi would have to wait as the party would like the dust to settle down and bank on the memory of the people that “it is short”. (November 5, 2012) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/106704-congress-finds-itself-in-a-quagmire.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/106719-congress-finds-itself-in-a-quagmire.html

LPG ceiling, not graft, main issue in HP poll

Amitabh Shukla / Shimla

As campaigning comes to an end on Friday, it is clear that elections in the hill State of Himachal Pradesh could test poll issues like big ticket corruption, rise in prices, FDI in retail and withdrawal of subsidies on LPG cylinders.

 Apart from the national issues, the polls would determine whether people of the State believe in the series of allegations against Congress’ Chief Ministerial aspirant Virbhadra Singh or the assertions of CM Prem Kumar Dhumal that the disastrous performance of the UPA at the Centre vis- a-vis the development in the last five years has led to a pro-incumbency wave in the State.

Macro issues apart, there are a series of micro issues which will determine the outcome in every constituency making it a close contest. Congress changed its chief weeks before the polls and brought in the disgraced Singh, the five-time Chief Minister, who was forced to resign from the Union Cabinet due to charges of corruption. Change of guard at the last moment and factionalism in the ticket distribution exercise triggered serious dissent within the Congress with around two dozen rebels contesting in 68 constituencies of the State.

BJP, on the other hand, sunk its internal differences ahead of ticket distribution and the two top leaders of the State — Dhumal and Shanta Kumar — joined hands to achieve “Mission Repeat”. This helped check rebellion and only around half a dozen rebels are in the fray, and most of them due to claims and counterclaims following delimitation.

Singh sought to play down the corruption charges against him, including a court case in Shimla saying that it would not have any impact on the polls. These moves were politically motivated, he claimed.

He has threatened the media organisations of defamation once the polls are over. “I have left my fate to the people of the state. They have full sympathy with me. These weird allegations against me are only building public sympathy for me,” the 78-year old leader, who wants to be the CM for the sixth time, says nonchalantly.

Dhumal, the lecturer-turned politician, who had a rather non-controversial tenure of five years, has realised that corruption charges against Singh and the Centre are potent poll issues. Wherever he campaigns, he strongly raises these issues and also blames the Centre for hampering the  developmental agenda of the state.

With restriction on the number of subsidized LPG  cylinders becoming a major issue, the soft-spoken Dhumal reminds the people that the withdrawal of subsidy on the cylinders would lead to environmental degradation as people would be forced to cut trees for fuel. He has already promised to provide induction heater to the people after victory in the power surplus state, an issue which has found wider acceptability.

 “There is no anti-incumbency in the state. Congress leaders have exposed themselves thoroughly. Even the Prime Minister and the Congress President misled the people here. The Centre is yet to give the dues of the state in the hydro-power projects. Special industrial status to the state was withdrawn. People will teach Congress a lesson,” says Dhumal, looking for a third term as chief minister. State BJP chief Satpal Singh Satti added that Singh’s conduct as Union Steel Minister has made every citizen of Himachal called ‘devbhoomi’ bow his head in shame.

The result of neighbouring Punjab where the SAD-BJP government got repeated early this year, a rare phenomenon ever since the division of the state in 1966, has come as a shot in arm for Dhumal as Himachal too has not returned an incumbent government in the last two decades. “Good governance pays”, added Dhumal.

Himachal Lokhit Party, a breakaway faction of the BJP, is contesting all the 68 seats in alliance with the Left parties - CPI(M) and CPI. But political observers in the state say that this formation could get the anti-incumbency votes which would have otherwise gone to the Congress and help the BJP. Bahujan Samaj Party and the Trinamool Congress too have fielded candidates in most of the constituencies but have so far failed to make an impact leaving the main fight between arch rivals Congress and the BJP.

A pre-poll survey of CNN-IBN has put the BJP slightly ahead of the Congress suggesting that a close contest is on the cards. BJP tried to build up a positive campaign convincing the floating voters that their interest lies in continuity. Congress campaign was largely negative as it was forced to continuously deny corruption charges in the month long electioneering and did not bring any developmental agenda to the forefront.

Voters would have the last laugh on November 4 in the battle between royalty (Raja Virbhadra Singh from the princely state of Bushahr) and the common man (Prem Kumar Dhumal, LIC official turned lecturer turned politician). (November 2, 2012)

http://www.dailypioneer.com/home/online-channel/360-todays-newspaper/105961-lpg-ceiling-not-graft-main-issue-in-hp-poll.html

Vadra off the hook, Haryana shows the way

VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA

As expected, Haryana government has given a clean chit to Robert Vadra and his companies and absolved the son-in-law of Congress President Sonia Gandhi of any wrongdoing in the land deals in the NCR region of the state where real estate agents are making a killing due to booming prices.

What else was the state Congress government and its Deputy Commissioners in Haryana expected to do? Find Vadra guilty of acts of omission and commission? No one would have expected the state government and its officials to behave differently. DCs are relatively junior officers in the hierarchy of IAS and those of the four districts of Gurgaon, Faridabad, Mewat and Palwal, who gave a clean chit to Vadra, know this well. The example of whistle-blower and their senior colleague in the IAS, Ashok Khemka who was transferred the moment he ordered a probe into the deals of Vadra, was too recent for any official to forget. 

Common sense says that a state Congress government can never go against the top boss of the party and her family, come what may. This has never happened in the past. You do not find faults with your benefactor or his immediate family unless you have gone astray and want to commit a political suicide.

Bhupinder Singh Hooda was made the chief minister of the state eight years ago overlooking the claims of Bhajan Lal. He has been in the good books of the Gandhi family ever since and despite a poor performance of the party in the 2009 assembly polls where the Congress failed to get a simple majority, he was entrusted with the top job as he was the only leader who could have won the independents and effected a split in the Haryana Janhit Congress, the party of Bhajan Lal.

Being a smart business man, Vadra simply bought land in the NCR region of Haryana at throwaway prices, sold them and made a killing after 2005 when Hooda government was firmly in the saddle. Any other businessman would have done the same if there is responsive and helpful administration and a government which bends to become accommodative. Obviously Vadra would not leave any trail of any wrongdoing as the land was bought above the Collector or the Circle rate. Proving quid pro quo is next to impossible as there would never be any paper or electronic trail for these. Remember, those who want to evade the dragnet of Income tax or other punitive laws are very meticulous in their paperwork and it requires a lot of investigation to find fault in their papers. Vadra is no exception.

Public opinion may crucify Vadra and the Congress leaders in the state and the Centre but in any case, no one is bothered about the public opinion any longer. Political leaders, cutting across party lines, have a simple theory – public memory is very short. Ask any person on the street about the land deals of Vadra and they will tell you that it reeks of corrupt practices. They will tell you that even if the land was bought above the collector rate or the circle rate, the price on which it was bought was extremely cheap and the price on which it was sold was extremely high. Any person owning any property in the country knows that the circle rate is in some cases only one tenth of the market price and in most cases, it is one fourth of the rate it commands in the market.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh says that money does not grow on trees. We agree. It grows on land instead. This perhaps explains the astronomical difference between the purchase price and the selling price of land in the case of Vadra.  After the end of the license permit and inspector raj, it is the natural resources which have become the biggest money spinners for those in power. Change in land use has become such an effective financial weapon in the hands of the state governments that no longer do they require any other mechanism to make gains or oblige someone with windfall gain.

BJP President Nitin Gadkari too finds himself in the same league. He is facing charges of irregularities in his companies and predictably the Congress is quick to attack him and defend Vadra in the same vein. Ask the aam aadmi (common man) on the streets and they would say that the defence of Gadkari is very weak. More so, when you stand on a high moral pedestal and accuse others, there should not be even a semblance of doubt on you. Caesar’s wife should be above suspicion. But this is obviously not happening. Two wrongs cannot make a right. Investigate both thoroughly.

But here comes the relevant question. Is there any impartial investigating agency in the country?  Which agency in the country would be fair to both Vadra and Gadkari at the same time without any bias if entrusted the task of investigation? CBI may or may not be good in investigating criminal cases but its record in dealing with the politicians has been abysmal and questioned time and again. Has it ever been able to get a conviction for a politician in numerous cases it has lodged against the likes of Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati, Lalu Prasad Yadav and several others? Aren’t those cases dead like a dodo and revived only when politics necessitates it? Or has it ever lodged a case against a politician of the ruling party in the Centre in recent years?  Remember, it lodged a series of cases against Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh only when he left the party and posed a direct threat and not when he was a Congress MP or his father YSR Reddy was the chief minister of the state.

So at the end of the day, the debate rests there. BJP will shout against the irregularities committed by Vadra while the Congress will point out that those by Gadkari are much serious in nature than that of Vadra. Public discourse will never move beyond that. At best, agencies could investigate Gadkari and come out with selective leaks to keep alive the issue politically. The entire political discourse has become too predictable in the recent past.

At one end of the political spectrum you have Vadra and Gadkari and the other end Virbhadra Singh who is shouting at the top of his voice that he is not corrupt, innocent and has been framed. Wasn’t it time that the Parliament passed the Lok Pal Bill so that this cacophony came to an end. (October 29, 2012) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/104961-vadra-off-the-hook-haryana-shows-the-way.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/104946-vadra-off-the-hook-haryana-shows-the-way.html

False start and finish for Congress

  

VIEWPOINT  

AMITABH SHUKLA

AICC General Secretary Rahul Gandhi made two separate visits to Punjab within a span of a few days to find out the reasons for the defeat of the Congress in the Assembly polls earlier this year. He, however, desisted from visiting poll bound Himachal Pradesh where the party is battling it out and sweating profusely to pose a challenge to the ruling party.

What is baffling here is the obsession of the Congress with the past rather than the present or the future. Punjab could have easily waited. The postmortem could have been done even after November 4 when Himachal Pradesh goes to polls. The time he spent in Punjab could  have been spent in the hill state to motivate the moribund party workers who are out on the streets only now when barely a few days are left  for the polls which could well shape the political course of events in the run up to the general elections of 2014.

The question is why does Punjab interest Gandhi more than Himachal Pradesh? Is he afraid of electoral politics of which he is very much a part of and instead wants to concentrate on backroom operations of the party? Does he want to take the bulls by horn or simply wait for things to happen on its own? My suspicion is that after burning his fingers badly in Uttar Pradesh this year, he does not want to be the key figure and mascot of the party in the poll bound Himachal Pradesh. His lack of focus on Gujarat is understandable as Narendra Modi has managed to decimate the Congress effectively and the writing is very much on the wall. But Himachal is a border line case where a little extra effort from the Congress could have turned the tide and still everything is not lost. Remember, in the last over two decades, the state has voted against the incumbent governments. 

It is here that the Congress has bungled badly. Instead of focusing on the issue in hand and take an aggressive lead over its rivals in Himachal and Gujarat first by building the momentum and then by intensive campaigning, it is merely waiting for things to happen. What happened to the paper tigers of Congress like Digvijay Singh who sit in Delhi and issue one statement after the other, instead of getting into the nitty-gritty of electoral politics. Digvijay has washed his hands off Madhya Pradesh, his home state, after presiding over the defeat of the party and shifted base to Delhi, the easy option available to him.

Digvijay is not alone. There are scores of leaders in Congress, some of them Cabinet Ministers for whom getting into electoral politics is the last option and only if the party leadership pushes them towards it. Obviously Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is in this group and an inspiration for many that even without an electoral base, you can rise to the top. 

These leaders are cocooned in the Rajya Sabha, far away from the dust and grind of electoral politics and far away from the grassroots and ground realities. The problem is that the number of such leaders is only increasing and the party is hard pressed to find a popular leader in any state who could turn the tide for the party on his or her own accord.

I fail to understand why does Congress patronize leaders who  are neither good in back room operations nor can count any support base in any constituency of the country. In any case, you can’t have dozens of back room operators and no regional leader with charisma. Why don’t they come to the battlefield and focus on the job in hand – victory of the party in assembly polls rather than be comfortable in their offices and homes in New Delhi and issue one statement after the other.

Rahul may address a couple of meetings half heartedly in Himachal and Gujarat just to go through the motions. But so far, he has desisted from taking any initiative or plan a campaign which could give the party an edge in the polls bound states. Even at the AICC level, there seem to no planning at all to win Himachal and Gujarat. It is like the party has written off the two states from its scheme of things.

Perhaps YSR Reddy of Andhra Pradesh was the last regional leader of the Congress who could count on state-wide support and had an independent identity as a mass leader. You take any state of the country and would be hard pressed to find a leader who can claim a mass base. Take Maharashtra, Prithviraj Chavan has never been a state leader and was sent as chief minister from Delhi. The last leader with some mass base, Vilasrao Deshmukh, died early this year, leaving the party to the whims and fancy of NCP’s Sharad Pawar.

In states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, where Congress has been out of power for over two decades, you cannot even name a single leader who has any significant following. In West Bengal, Congress handed the state on a platter to Mamata Banerjee and the only leader with some standing, Pranab Mukherjee is in Rashtrapati Bhawan. In Gujarat, the party toyed with the likes of Shankarsinh Vaghela and today, hardly has anyone who can take on Narendra Modi. In Madhya Pradesh, after Digvijay Singh left, there is a complete vacuum in leadership. In Chhatisgarh, Ajit Jogi is there but has been discredited over a period of time. In Karnataka, the party seems to be in a good position due to the acts of omission and commission of the BJP government but is looking at 10 Janpath to send a leader to lead the party.

In Haryana, Bhupinder Singh Hooda has been there as CM for last 8 years and is losing relevance with every passing day with a series of scams in land dealings and the involvement of his ministers in criminal activities. In Punjab, there is hardly anyone beyond Capt Amarinder Singh and he too is now out of tune with the aspirations of the people of the state. In Himachal Pradesh, Virbhadra Singh was brought in even as he was facing a series of corruption cases simply because the Congress in the state was staring at a leadership crisis. In Delhi, Sheila Dikshit has been there and one of the longest serving chief ministers of the party but now wants to move away. In Uttarakhand, it is too early to comment on chief minister Vijay Bahuguna as he has hardly held any public office before.

If you make a false start, you are bound to finish last. The sooner the Congress realizes it, the better it would be for the party. (October 22, 2012) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/103453-false-start-and-finish-for-congress.html

http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/103467-false-start-and-finish-for-congress.html

Tehri and Jangipur: Ominous signs for Cong, UPA

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA 

The warning bells are loud and clear. The results of the bye-elections for the Tehri and the Jangipur Lok Sabha seats suggest a countrywide trend, an undercurrent against the policies of the UPA Government and also against a series of acts of omission and commission, sending the Congress scurrying for cover.

If Congress does not read the ominous signs and take corrective measures in the next year and half, the writing is there on the wall. But the problem is that the grand old party cannot or rather does not want to hear the warning bells, does not want to look at the mirror and do some serious introspection. Medication starts only when the patient agrees with the diagnosis but here Congress wants to kill the doctor who diagnosed the disease. It wants to shoot the messenger even as the message is too obvious for everyone to see.

The mood clearly is something like 1989 when the Bofors issue brought down the mighty Rajiv Gandhi Government and before that in 1977 when imposition of the Emergency led to the crystallisation of the anti-Congress forces on one platform leading to the ouster of Congress for the first time.

In Uttarakhand, Tehri by-poll result is not a defeat for the Chief Minister Vijay Bahuguna but clearly a no confidence vote against the UPA Government. The seat may have been vacated by Bahuguna and he may have led from the front to ensure the victory of his son Saket, but the series of expose ever since the UPA came to power in 2009, did him in. What makes the matters worse is that almost every single day one or the other corruption charges against Congress Ministers is being made.

Even as the din over the Coalgate and charges against Robert Vadra had yet to die down, there was charge against Law Minister Salman Khurshid about financial impropriety in the family run trust which received money from the Central Government. This was followed by charges against Virbhadra Singh when he was the Union Steel Minister on receiving kickbacks and alleged involvement in the selling of iron scrap. Remember, the same Virbhadra Singh had to resign from the Manmohan Singh Cabinet when a court in Shimla framed charges against him in the CD case. So it is a hat-trick of charges against Singh.

What has made the matters worse is the perception amongst the people that the party is extremely tolerant to corruption. The same Virbhadra is the Chief Ministerial candidate of the party in poll bound Himachal Pradesh, after being made the PCC chief two months before the elections. The message has gone not only in Himachal Pradesh but also rest of the country that come what may, the party will not take action against any tainted leader and instead would reward them with the position they want. Virbhadra wanted to become the PCC chief before elections so that he can get tickets for maximum of his supporters and he got what he wanted.

Political discourse has been reduced to such a comical level that instead of being on the defensive, Singh has been charging his political opponents of corruption and bragging that such issues do not affect the people and their voting preferences. Congress party is full of lawyers, including many in the Cabinet, but I don’t know how many of them would buy the argument which Virbhadra is placing in his defence. The tainted Himachal leader claims that he uses the initials “VS” and not “VBS” as mentioned in the diaries seized by the IT Department from Ispat Industries in which there is an entry of a payment of Rs2.28 crore to one “VBS”.

The result of Tehri indicates towards the malaise which has set in the 127-year-old party. Jangipur in West Bengal only confirmed it. The seat was vacated by Pranab Mukherjee after being elected as the first President of the country from West Bengal. His son, Abhijit Mukherjee just managed to win by a slender margin of over 2,500 votes while the margin of his father was 1.28 lakh votes. Abhijit knows that the next election which he will fight from the seat is not far away and just a year and half from now and the situation would only become difficult the way erosion of votes from the Congress has taken place. I hope Congress does not argue that the people of Jangipur are ungrateful and should have voted for the son of the first citizen of the country in the name of “Bengali honour”.

The erosion of the vote base of the Congress did not start all of a sudden. A series of high profile cases saw the involvement of several Congress leaders in scams. The big ticket scams started with the Commonwealth Games which led party MP Suresh Kalmadi to Tihar Jail in New Delhi. The investigation into the Games scam has come to a halt now. People are still wondering if Kalmadi did it all alone and wasn’t helped by the Delhi Government at all. A little earlier, the Madhu Koda scam broke out in which the party made an Independent MLA as Chief Minister of mineral rich Jharkhand, reaped the benefits and then left Koda high and dry in jail.

Then came the 2G scam which saw Cabinet Minister A Raja in jail and egg on the faces of several others, including Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, under whose nose the entire scam was carried out. If the corruption cases were not enough, inept handling of Anna Hazare and Baba Ramdev made the Government unpopular and exposed its ability to handle sensitive issues administratively.

Coalgate was next and no one knows where the investigations will stop if done in a free and fair manner. Robert Vadra was the bombshell which was waiting to explode. However, hard the Cabinet Ministers and the party spokespersons tried in television studios, the hollowness of their claims was there before the entire country to see. They were defending the indefensible. No one will give me or any common citizen (mango people of banana republic), an overdraft or unsecured loan of even Rs100 what to talk of lakhs or crores. This is only the second time when the first family of the Congress has faced charges, the first was against Rajiv Gandhi in the Bofors case.

In between, there was the Adarsh society scam in Mumbai and several small scams. Now you have the Salman Khurshid and Virbhadra Singh episodes. There are many more happening which could come to limelight anytime now. Selling natural resources and change in land use have become tickets to wealth for many, those in the Congress have mastered it while those in other parties are learning the tricks fast.

Given the sentiments, reflected through Tehri and Jangipur, it is for the opposition parties to cash it. BJP wants to be voted to power through default and not through aggressive campaign. Remember, the Vadra issue was brought in public domain by Arvind Kejriwal and the 2G and Coalgate scams by the CAG. Congress may be in a self annihilation drive right now but if the principal opposition party does not take proactive  political measures and builds a confederation of regional parties around it, the scam tainted UPA could bounce back. (October 15, 2012)  

http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/101629-tehri-and-jangipur-ominous-signs-for-cong-upa.html

http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/101633-tehri-and-jangipur-ominous-signs-for-cong-upa.html 

More evasive than forthcoming

Rahul Gandhi skirts major issues, talks of unemployment, drug addiction 

Amitabh Shukla / Chandigarh

The Yuvraj, Rahul Gandhi, lived upto expectations. Like a crown prince, he came with all the paraphernalia of royalty, waived at the Panjab University students, entered into a monologue and evaded the burning issues which the country and the youth face, then shook hands with some of the students and went away.

While some students thought they were meeting the rock star of Indian politics with a four-day old stubble, others thought they were face to face with the brother-in-law of Robert Vadra, facing a series of charges due to his association with reality major DLF. Very few amongst the 1000 odd students in the Panjab University campus here on Thursday thought they were listening to AICC General Secretary of the Congress and the future leader and Prime Minister of the country as the Congress would like to put it. 

Supposed to be the Students Convention of National Students Union of India in which the students were expecting Gandhi to take up questions haunting the country, the “youth icon” of the Congress simply gave a lecture to the students, pointed out how Punjab government was not doing its job on employment front and was indifferent to solving the menace of drug addiction.

The students had prepared well to ask blunt questions on the stand of Gandhi on issues ranging from the 2G scam to Coalgate and the latest Vadra episode. They remained disappointed – these are issues which the party would continue to evade rather than face them.

“I met ambassadors of European countries two days ago in Delhi. They were talking about the economic difficulties of European countries and the United States and how countries like China and India are progressing… Saudi Arabia was the reservoir of petroleum and wealth in the last century, India is the reservoir of youth and human resources,” the 42-year old Gandhi said.

The AICC General Secretary, who is set for a “bigger role” in politics, again repeated how he democratized the functioning of the NSUI and Indian Youth Congress through internal elections. He did not mention that even in these elections, the sons and daughters of Congress leaders won – Punjab and Haryana being no exception.

Gandhi borrowed from the speech of one of the youth leaders on the stage who said that 7 out of 10 youth in Punjab is in the grip of drugs and also touched the issue of unemployment without mentioning what the party would do to get the state rid of the twin issues of drug abuse and unemployment. He also alleged that the money sent by the Centre for scholarships to the students was being sent back by Punjab repeatedly without utilising it.

The only topical issue on which Gandhi spoke was FDI. “Do you know what FDI means? The meaning is simple…More money to the farmers”. The Congress leader did not speak on any other benefit which FDI is supposed to bring for the country.  He took on the BJP alleging that when the party was in power, it was not against FDI but was now against it. “They (BJP) are also against MGNREGA…They want to obstruct but we will not stop,” Gandhi continued, unmindful of the fact that NDA Chairman L K Advani praised the effort in the United Nations a day ago saying it has helped empower rural people and revive economic growth.

Enthused by the presence of a large number of female students in the crowd, Gandhi tried to keep them in good humour. “After 10-15 years, Punjab would have a woman chief minister,” he said, amid much applause from the girls present. Gandhi, nevertheless, forgot to mention that Rajinder Kaur Bhattal, a woman, was the chief minister of the state a decade and a half ago and is still active in politics though she was not present on the dais.

Ironically, even as the crowd largely comprised of female students, there was none present on the dais nor was any female student leader allowed to felicitate the leaders on the dais which included PCC chief Captain Amarinder Singh, CLP leader Sunil Jakhar, AICC in-charge of the state Gulchain Charak, NSUI President Rohit Chaudhary and several other male student leaders. (October 12, 2012) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/101095-more-evasive-than-forthcoming.html

The litmus test of Himachal and Gujarat

  

VIEWPOINT 

AMITABH SHUKLA

The assembly elections of Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat juxtaposed against economic reforms and fresh charges of corruption going right to the doors of the first family of the Congress has set the political ball rolling which will stop only after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Himachal Pradesh, not far away from Delhi, would be the laboratory where the so called reforms like FDI in retail, increase in diesel prices and removal of subsidy from LPG cylinders would be tested electorally on November 4. Undoubtedly, along with these, fresh corruption charges like the Coalgate and now the Robert Vadra episode would also be on the platter of the Himachal Pradesh voters. Then there would be a cocktail of local issues like the court case against Virbhadra Singh’s corruption and the party lying dormant till three months ago. If the people still vote for Congress and bring it to power, then this would be the springboard which the UPA will use to get the right momentum in the run up to the general elections.    

Gujarat is quite far away from Delhi but the national issues would be there along with the local ones. Communal polarization is a thing of the past unless Congress tries to bring the issue again in campaigning and give Narendra Modi a clear cut advantage. Congress has been out of power in the state for too long now and even if there is a slightest hint of so called secular versus communal divide, disaster wouldn’t be too far away.

Given the situation and the stranglehold of Modi in the state in every parameter, even the die-hard Congress supporter would have little to expect from the state which the party also has sort of written off from its political agenda. Sonia Gandhi may have begun her campaign in the state but making the voters believe that whatever development took place in the state in the last decade or so has been due to funds from the Centre, is indeed a Herculean task.

My suspicion is that even if Congress loses both Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat, it will keep blowing the trumpet of righteousness – it did nothing wrong and 2G and Coalgate are merely the figment of imagination of the opposition and the Comptroller and Auditor General of India. It will keep insisting that assembly elections cannot be a referendum on the performance of Manmohan Singh government and cannot be seen as an indictment on the series of corruption charges the government is facing – right from the Commonwealth Games scam to the dealings of Vadra with the reality major DLF.

Earlier this year, elections were held for the Punjab and Uttarakhand assembly – states where Congress was expected to come back to power due to anti-incumbency against the ruling parties. It failed miserably in Punjab where the Akali Dal-BJP combine broke the tradition of incumbent government losing the polls. In Uttarakhand, it just scraped through and was far away from a comfortable victory. Colgate scam had not broken then nor had the revelations about Vadra come out in public domain the way it has now.

 In the hill state of Himachal, which has not returned an incumbent government for the last over two decades, Congress faces the burden of winning a poll in which its hands have been tied. While it has the advantage of history and anti-incumbency going for it, the list of disadvantages is pretty long and this has bogged down the party so much so that its campaign is yet to begin.

For four and a half years, Congress had given a walkover to the ruling BJP, seldom protesting against anything, even for the sake of it. The leaders were cocooned to the comfort of their houses and it was only when the elections got closer that the party changed the PCC President and brought in Virbhadra Singh, who many say has outlived his utility. The 78-year old Singh was made the General of an army which has no arms and ammunition. He was made the party chief amid much drama when half the leaders of Himachal Congress camped in Delhi for days when Prem Kumar Dhumal was consolidating his position by announcing one sop after the other for almost every section of the state.

Himself facing corruption charges in a court of law, Virbhadra is attacking chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal on corruption, an argument he is unlikely to win. It is like a pot calling the kettle black and however hard Congress tries to force the issue, it is only likely to boomerang. More so, when the party is facing a series of charges at the national level. So making corruption an issue in the Himachal polls has already proved to be a disadvantage for the party. “The party has made a false start,” summed up a veteran of state politics.

You cannot hope to do in 28 days what you could not in four years and ten months. People are not going to hand you the state on a platter just for the sake of anti-incumbency. A party has to work for it and it was here that the Congress failed to play the role of an active and effective opposition.

In neighbouring Punjab, Congress took the voters for granted, lost a crucial election and now is on the verge of disintegration - losing its leaders and cadres every day with some former MLA or Block level leader joining the ruling alliance. The grand old party has failed to live life as an opposition as it is used to the trappings of power. Congress leaders in Punjab know that the next election is four and a half years away and they need to have crumbs of power through the Akali Dal-BJP government.

Himachal Pradesh is moving the way Punjab did six months ago. Congress refuses to learn its lessons and change as per the expectations of the voters, who are getting younger, have different set of expectations than their fathers and are no more content with merely slogans and posturing. (October 8, 2012) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/100067-the-litmus-test-of-himachal-and-gujarat.html 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/100030-the-litmus-test-of-himachal-and-gujarat.html

Kaun Banega PM — key lies with ‘lifelines’

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Om Prakash Chautala is a regional chieftain. He is hardly known outside Haryana nor is his party Indian National Lok Dal.

Neither in the NDA nor in the UPA, he is desperate to float something called “Third Front” and wants Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal as the next Prime Minister of the country after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

So Badal, the veteran of Akali politics, who has hardly played any political role at the Centre, becomes the latest name to join the race for prime ministership. Being an astute politician, firmly rooted to the ground, Badal knows the political reality of the country and may not himself be aspiring for the position, but his friend Chautala has nevertheless floated his name.

Chautala may not be serious unlike his father Chaudhary Devi Lal, who was one of the architects of the Third Front and rose to become the Deputy Prime Minister of the country in 1989. Badal is firmly in the NDA, one of its oldest constituents and has shown no inclination to leave it. At this point of time, the Third Front seems more like a mathematical calculation in the cloud rather than a political reality on the ground.

Badal’s name is the latest addition to a dozen odd names being floated like a test balloon. Those who float the names simply want to see the public reaction or lack of it before making a hasty retreat.

It all started with the floating of the name of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi for the top political job of the country. The moment the name of Modi is floated, media rushes to get the reaction of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. This has happened so often in the last couple of years that people have lost interest in the Modi versus Kumar shadow boxing. In fact, both the leaders themselves have now refused to get drawn into the slanging match, orchestrated by a section of the media.

Having won two consecutive elections in Bihar,  Nitish Kumar wrote the political obituary of Lalu Prasad Yadav and now he himself is an aspirant for the top job if the “situation warrants” and NDA looks for acceptability cutting across the political spectrum. His die-hard supporters insist that he could become the Prime Minister as the “most accepted” face of the NDA with all the regional satraps like Naveen  Patnaik in Odisha, Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, Jayalalita in Tamil Nadu, Chandrababu Naidu and Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh likely to support him. And if NDA does not make him the PM, he could switch over to the UPA to get the top job. This is what a section of his supporters argue. Well, there is many a slip between the cup and the lip.

From the BJP, Gujarat strongman Modi is not the only name being floated around for the top job. You have the veteran of many a battle, LK Advani, who was the prime ministerial candidate in the 2009 election as well and could well be the aspirant in 2014 also. He was there in the 2004 elections too but unfortunately NDA lost to the Congress on both occasions and the dream could not turn into a reality.

Then you have Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha, Sushma Swaraj, whose name has been floated by Shiv Sena supremo Bal Thackeray who described  her as the most deserving. “At present there is only one person who is intelligent, brilliant — Sushma Swaraj,” Thackeray said in his mouthpiece, Saamana. Even before Thackeray said that, she was a contender for the job in her party.

Due to his suave and sophisticated image and the ability to make friends across political divide, Leader of Opposition in the Rajya Sabha, Arun Jaitley is another candidate. His name has been endorsed by former BJP leader, Govindacharya. As the date  nears, there will be more endorsements for his name. Though no one in BJP takes Govindacharya  seriously these days, Jaitley finds a lot of support for his candidature in the party. Punjab BJP is already looking for a seat in the state for him to contest so that he makes his Lok Sabha debut in the next general elections.

From the NDA, Sharad Yadav’s name is also floated occasionally even though he derives his political strength from JD(U), whose prime vote catcher remains Nitish Kumar. His debating skills and parliamentary experience are cited prominently in his Curriculum Vitae by his supporters whose number does not exceed a dozen or two.

Now if you turn the gaze on the other side of the divide, you find Mulayam Singh Yadav flexing his muscles and positioning himself as the candidate for the top job. After handing over Uttar Pradesh to his son Akhilesh Yadav, the senior Yadav has turned whole heartedly to national politics and is looking for a possible situation which existed in the late 1980s and early 90s when VP Singh, H D Deve Gowda and Inder Kumar Gujaral became prime ministers in quick succession before losing the script in the 1991 polls. But Yadav does not have the support of a Harkishan Singh Surjeet now and his attempt to cobble up a conglomeration of regional parties is yet to take off.

Ruling UPA and its main constituent Congress would obviously smile at so many contenders for the top job. “The post is not vacant,” is the reply of Congress spokespersons if you pose the question to them. The party itself has no dearth of contenders. Manmohan Singh would complete two terms as PM in 2014 and would obviously be the contender again with his few supporters arguing that if he can remain the PM for two terms then why not a third term even though he would be 82 by then.

Rahul Gandhi would naturally be the choice of party President Sonia Gandhi if Congress is voted to power with the kind of majority it got in the 2009 polls. Rahul has been waiting, learning his tricks in the organization and would have gained requisite experience by then, his supporters argue. He may not have won any election for the party but Congress leaders — senior or junior — have been proposing his name ever since he joined politics and are all praise for his “potential” and how he could become the best Prime Minister of the country. No one in the party — from the humble block level worker to General Secretaries of AICC and the Cabinet Ministers — would oppose his name if the numbers favour UPA, post 2014 polls.

But what if the Congress manages to get the numbers despite two lackluster terms and Rahul is not ready even by then and asks for more time to learn and see the country. A slew of names are taken in the Congress which includes those of Defense Minister A K Antony, Congress General Secretary Digvijay Singh, Finance Minister P Chidambaram or even rank outsiders who have the trust of the Gandhi family.

People are watching the latest edition of Kaun Banega Crorepati with great interest and want to see who gets the jackpot of `5 crore this season. They would also be keenly watching the political events unfold to see who becomes the Prime Minister in May 2014. (October 1, 2012) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/98375-kaun-banega-pm-keylies-with-lifelines.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/98432-kaun-banega-pm--keylies-with-lifelines.html