The litmus test of Himachal and Gujarat



  
VIEWPOINT 
AMITABH SHUKLA


The assembly elections of Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat juxtaposed against economic reforms and fresh charges of corruption going right to the doors of the first family of the Congress has set the political ball rolling which will stop only after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Himachal Pradesh, not far away from Delhi, would be the laboratory where the so called reforms like FDI in retail, increase in diesel prices and removal of subsidy from LPG cylinders would be tested electorally on November 4. Undoubtedly, along with these, fresh corruption charges like the Coalgate and now the Robert Vadra episode would also be on the platter of the Himachal Pradesh voters. Then there would be a cocktail of local issues like the court case against Virbhadra Singh’s corruption and the party lying dormant till three months ago. If the people still vote for Congress and bring it to power, then this would be the springboard which the UPA will use to get the right momentum in the run up to the general elections.    

Gujarat is quite far away from Delhi but the national issues would be there along with the local ones. Communal polarization is a thing of the past unless Congress tries to bring the issue again in campaigning and give Narendra Modi a clear cut advantage. Congress has been out of power in the state for too long now and even if there is a slightest hint of so called secular versus communal divide, disaster wouldn’t be too far away.

Given the situation and the stranglehold of Modi in the state in every parameter, even the die-hard Congress supporter would have little to expect from the state which the party also has sort of written off from its political agenda. Sonia Gandhi may have begun her campaign in the state but making the voters believe that whatever development took place in the state in the last decade or so has been due to funds from the Centre, is indeed a Herculean task.

My suspicion is that even if Congress loses both Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat, it will keep blowing the trumpet of righteousness – it did nothing wrong and 2G and Coalgate are merely the figment of imagination of the opposition and the Comptroller and Auditor General of India. It will keep insisting that assembly elections cannot be a referendum on the performance of Manmohan Singh government and cannot be seen as an indictment on the series of corruption charges the government is facing – right from the Commonwealth Games scam to the dealings of Vadra with the reality major DLF.

Earlier this year, elections were held for the Punjab and Uttarakhand assembly – states where Congress was expected to come back to power due to anti-incumbency against the ruling parties. It failed miserably in Punjab where the Akali Dal-BJP combine broke the tradition of incumbent government losing the polls. In Uttarakhand, it just scraped through and was far away from a comfortable victory. Colgate scam had not broken then nor had the revelations about Vadra come out in public domain the way it has now.

 In the hill state of Himachal, which has not returned an incumbent government for the last over two decades, Congress faces the burden of winning a poll in which its hands have been tied. While it has the advantage of history and anti-incumbency going for it, the list of disadvantages is pretty long and this has bogged down the party so much so that its campaign is yet to begin.

For four and a half years, Congress had given a walkover to the ruling BJP, seldom protesting against anything, even for the sake of it. The leaders were cocooned to the comfort of their houses and it was only when the elections got closer that the party changed the PCC President and brought in Virbhadra Singh, who many say has outlived his utility. The 78-year old Singh was made the General of an army which has no arms and ammunition. He was made the party chief amid much drama when half the leaders of Himachal Congress camped in Delhi for days when Prem Kumar Dhumal was consolidating his position by announcing one sop after the other for almost every section of the state.

Himself facing corruption charges in a court of law, Virbhadra is attacking chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal on corruption, an argument he is unlikely to win. It is like a pot calling the kettle black and however hard Congress tries to force the issue, it is only likely to boomerang. More so, when the party is facing a series of charges at the national level. So making corruption an issue in the Himachal polls has already proved to be a disadvantage for the party. “The party has made a false start,” summed up a veteran of state politics.

You cannot hope to do in 28 days what you could not in four years and ten months. People are not going to hand you the state on a platter just for the sake of anti-incumbency. A party has to work for it and it was here that the Congress failed to play the role of an active and effective opposition.

In neighbouring Punjab, Congress took the voters for granted, lost a crucial election and now is on the verge of disintegration - losing its leaders and cadres every day with some former MLA or Block level leader joining the ruling alliance. The grand old party has failed to live life as an opposition as it is used to the trappings of power. Congress leaders in Punjab know that the next election is four and a half years away and they need to have crumbs of power through the Akali Dal-BJP government.

Himachal Pradesh is moving the way Punjab did six months ago. Congress refuses to learn its lessons and change as per the expectations of the voters, who are getting younger, have different set of expectations than their fathers and are no more content with merely slogans and posturing. (October 8, 2012) 

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