VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
The assembly elections of
Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat juxtaposed against economic reforms and fresh
charges of corruption going right to the doors of the first family of the
Congress has set the political ball rolling which will stop only after the 2014
Lok Sabha elections.
Himachal Pradesh, not far away
from Delhi , would be the laboratory
where the so called reforms like FDI in retail, increase in diesel prices and
removal of subsidy from LPG cylinders would be tested electorally on November
4. Undoubtedly, along with these, fresh corruption charges like the Coalgate
and now the Robert Vadra episode would also be on the platter of the Himachal
Pradesh voters. Then there would be a cocktail of local issues like the court
case against Virbhadra Singh’s corruption and the party lying dormant till
three months ago. If the people still vote for Congress and bring it to power,
then this would be the springboard which the UPA will use to get the right
momentum in the run up to the general elections.
Given the situation and the
stranglehold of Modi in the state in every parameter, even the die-hard
Congress supporter would have little to expect from the state which the party
also has sort of written off from its political agenda. Sonia Gandhi may have
begun her campaign in the state but making the voters believe that whatever development
took place in the state in the last decade or so has been due to funds from the
Centre, is indeed a Herculean task.
My suspicion is that even if
Congress loses both Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat , it
will keep blowing the trumpet of righteousness – it did nothing wrong and 2G
and Coalgate are merely the figment of imagination of the opposition and the
Comptroller and Auditor General of India .
It will keep insisting that assembly elections cannot be a referendum on the
performance of Manmohan Singh government and cannot be seen as an indictment on
the series of corruption charges the government is facing – right from the
Commonwealth Games scam to the dealings of Vadra with the reality major DLF.
Earlier this year, elections were
held for the Punjab and Uttarakhand assembly – states
where Congress was expected to come back to power due to anti-incumbency
against the ruling parties. It failed miserably in Punjab
where the Akali Dal-BJP combine broke the tradition of incumbent government
losing the polls. In Uttarakhand, it just scraped through and was far away from
a comfortable victory. Colgate scam had not broken then nor had the revelations
about Vadra come out in public domain the way it has now.
In the hill state of Himachal, which has not
returned an incumbent government for the last over two decades, Congress faces
the burden of winning a poll in which its hands have been tied. While it has
the advantage of history and anti-incumbency going for it, the list of
disadvantages is pretty long and this has bogged down the party so much so that
its campaign is yet to begin.
For four and a half years,
Congress had given a walkover to the ruling BJP, seldom protesting against
anything, even for the sake of it. The leaders were cocooned to the comfort of
their houses and it was only when the elections got closer that the party
changed the PCC President and brought in Virbhadra Singh, who many say has
outlived his utility. The 78-year old Singh was made the General of an army
which has no arms and ammunition. He was made the party chief amid much drama
when half the leaders of Himachal Congress camped in Delhi
for days when Prem Kumar Dhumal was consolidating his position by announcing
one sop after the other for almost every section of the state.
Himself facing corruption charges
in a court of law, Virbhadra is attacking chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal on
corruption, an argument he is unlikely to win. It is like a pot calling the
kettle black and however hard Congress tries to force the issue, it is only
likely to boomerang. More so, when the party is facing a series of charges at
the national level. So making corruption an issue in the Himachal polls has
already proved to be a disadvantage for the party. “The party has made a false
start,” summed up a veteran of state politics.
You cannot hope to do in 28 days
what you could not in four years and ten months. People are not going to hand
you the state on a platter just for the sake of anti-incumbency. A party has to
work for it and it was here that the Congress failed to play the role of an
active and effective opposition.
In neighbouring Punjab ,
Congress took the voters for granted, lost a crucial election and now is on the
verge of disintegration - losing its leaders and cadres every day with some former
MLA or Block level leader joining the ruling alliance. The grand old party has
failed to live life as an opposition as it is used to the trappings of power.
Congress leaders in Punjab know that the next election
is four and a half years away and they need to have crumbs of power through the
Akali Dal-BJP government.
Himachal Pradesh is moving the
way Punjab did six months ago. Congress refuses to learn
its lessons and change as per the expectations of the voters, who are getting
younger, have different set of expectations than their fathers and are no more
content with merely slogans and posturing. (October 8, 2012)
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