Battlefield Haryana: A quagmire of possibilities

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Despite BJP sweeping Haryana in Lok Sabha polls, winning 7 of the 8 seats it contested, the State is set to witness a fierce, multi-cornered  battle in Assembly polls three months from now.

There is almost a political unanimity on the fact that the best ever performance by the BJP in the State was largely due to “Modi wave” which was the macro factor all over north and western India. There is also an agreement on the fact that this overriding factor has by and large subsided now. Even Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda conceded in his meetings that there was a Tsunami which has come to an end and Assembly polls are a different ball game altogether. The reason is simple. BJP victory came in Haryana even though the party did not have an organisation at the grass roots level and in some seats, it was forced to field last minute candidates from outside the State and turncoats from other parties.

Ironically, despite all his follies and allegations against him, Chief Minister Hooda continues to be the tallest leader of the State as there is no one even from the Opposition to challenge him. The main Opposition Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) is practically paralysed as two of its top leaders—Om Prakash Chautala and his son Ajay Chautala—are in jail for quite a while. Though INLD won two seats in Lok Sabha polls, absence of its top leaders from the election campaign will surely affect its chances. The father-son duo, obviously Chief Ministerial candidates, has been convicted and cannot even contest the elections, creating gaping holes in the party. Abhay Chautala, the other son of O P Chautala, could now perhaps be the Chief Ministerial candidate as the regional party cannot see anyone beyond the family to control the reins of power. It is fighting with its hands tied and though there is sympathy for the jailed father-son duo in the Jat community, this may not be enough for the party to see it through this tough battle.

As INLD has its share of problems, Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) led by Kuldeep Bishnoi has practically been a political non-starter. An ally of the BJP, it was allotted two seats in the Lok Sabha polls and lost both despite a Modi wave in the State. Bishnoi himself lost from Hisar, a seat which he won in a bye-election in 2011. His father Chaudhary Bhajan Lal won from Hisar in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls but his death led to a bye-election.  Now questions are being raised in BJP circles about the efficacy of the alliance with HJC. “When he cannot even win in a Modi wave, how can he win in normal circumstances?” questioned a senior BJP leader here.

Interestingly, BJP entered into an ill conceived alliance with HJC almost three years ago in which they decided to contest 45 seats each in the 90 member Haryana Assembly. Both BJP and HJC had also decided to share the Chief Minister’s post for two and a half years each if they are voted to power in October 2014 Assembly polls. But that alliance seems to have been stitched decades ago as ground situation has changed drastically in favour of BJP and against HJC, particularly after the Lok Sabha polls.

For BJP, the biggest problem right now is how to wriggle out of the alliance with HJC. Senior BJP leaders know that HJC is now a major liability and it has no presence outside the Hisar belt, the fiefdom of Bhajan Lal. Bishnoi does not have the charisma of his father Bhajan Lal to bring the non-Jats on a platform which BJP was looking for.

The second problem for BJP is the absence of a leader who has an imprint all over the State and who could be projected as the Chief Ministerial candidate of the party. Rao Inderjit Singh, MP from Gurgaon and Minister in the Modi Cabinet is an import from Congress and is not acceptable to the cadres and middle ranking leaders. Another Minister in the Modi Cabinet from Haryana Krishnapal Gurjar, the MP from Faridabad is not known outside his constituency. Capt Abhimanyu, spokesperson of the BJP too has been active but lacks ground support. Om Prakash Dhankar, national President of BJP’s Kisan Morcha hails from Rohtak and was the only party candidate who lost the Lok Sabha polls to Deepender Hooda. This could weaken his chances of projection as the Chief Ministerial candidate even though he hails from the dominant Jat community. State BJP President Ram Bilas Sharma too hasn’t got much following and acceptability in the party.

No wonder even as elections are round the corner, BJP is yet to announce its Chief Ministerial candidate. In fact, so far even the consultation has not begun. Party sources say that once a new BJP President takes over from Rajnath Singh in New Delhi, a decision could be taken. But so far, there is a sense of confusion amongst the BJP cadres on the issue.

Problems are plenty in Congress as well, the main being the revolt of senior Congress leaders against the leadership of Hooda. Chaudhary Birender Singh a bête noire of Hooda, has declared that he won’t contest the polls under Hooda’s leadership. Though Birender does not have much of an influence in the Jat Community and lost the 2009 Assembly polls, his continuous tirade against Hooda has affected the functioning of the party and the morale of Congress workers. Then you have former Union Minister Selja who too has been a vocal critic of Hooda and is leaving no opportunity to target the Chief Minister. Despite Hooda opposing here, Selja was nominated for the Rajya Sabha weeks before the Lok Sabha polls and escaped being a victim of the Modi wave from her constituency of Ambala. A Dalit leader, she has limited influence in the state but of late has become the rallying point of the dissidents who want to dislodge Hooda. The Chief Minister got another setback, weeks before the Lok Sabha polls when his friend and former minister Venod Sharma walked away from Congress and has now formed a regional party.

Despite all odds, Hooda is first off the block to launch his campaign for the Assembly polls. Even as the INLD and BJP are contemplating their next move, Hooda is addressing political rallies throughout the State accompanied by Haryana Congress President Ashok Tanwar. He has been mocking at the Gujarat model of development in his speeches and asking what has the Modi Government does in its first month. Backed by the State machinery and an advertisement campaign, Hooda is leaving no stone unturned. Though he is facing double anti-incumbency, both at the State level and of the UPA in the Centre, he is not expected to leave the battle without a fierce fight.

Given the ground situation, a quagmire of political possibilities could emerge in Haryana. Already, there is a buzz about four-cornered contest with BJP walking away from its alliance with HJC in the next two weeks. So Congress, BJP, INLD and HJC would battle it out separately for supremacy for the 90 seats of Haryana Assembly.

Even if BJP is not able to get the numbers to form the Government on its own, a situation is emerging where it could go for a post poll alliance with INLD to keep Congress out. INLD, an erstwhile constituent of NDA, has been sympathetic to BJP and wanted an alliance even in 2009 Assembly and Lok Sabha polls  but was repeatedly spurned by BJP.  The Chautalas have been praising Modi for a long time on every forum available to them. Now with NDA firmly in saddle in New Delhi, INLD too has expectations as it has remained out of power for a decade now. They could stitch a post poll alliance and whoever has more seats, would be the dominant partner in the alliance and would stake claim for Chief Minister’s post.

Moreover, Shiromani Akali Dal, a constituent of NDA, has been an ally of INLD for a long time in Haryana and this has helped them get Sikh votes in the state. SAD is expected to lobby for inclusion of INLD in NDA as and when a favourable situation emerges in Haryana. If the outcome remains indecisive and no single party is in a position to form Government on its own in Haryana, this old chemistry could come to the fore. (June 30, 2014) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/2014-06-29-56507.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/battlefield-haryana-a-quagmire-of-possibilities.html

Congress faces another challenge, Assembly polls

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

With Narendra Modi firmly in saddle and Congress yet to recover from the humiliating defeat in the May Lok Sabha polls, political gaze is gradually shifting to the Assembly elections scheduled later this year.

For BJP, the momentum generated by Lok Sabha poll results, would make it the favourite even though Assembly polls are fought on local issues, regional factors and caste combinations which outweigh the national issues.  But for the Congress, these are not merely polls but a battle of survival. If it loses the States it is ruling, it is a downward spiral all the way which will be extremely difficult to control.

Amongst the States going for polls, Congress rules Haryana while it is the leading partner in the alliance in Maharashtra. In Jharkhand, the party is supporting the Hemant Soren-led coalition Government while in Jammu and Kashmir it is supporting the alliance Government headed by Omar Abdullah. So there you have it, Congress has a stake in all the States which go to polls by the end of this year or January next year.

As it is a matter of survival for the Congress rather than a mere election, it is exploring options to change leadership in the two States before the model code of conduct comes into force. In fact, Congress would have never thought of leadership change in any State but for a revolt in the party in Assam to change Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi. As Assam’s case came under scrutiny, the central leadership thought it prudent to review Haryana and Maharashtra as well.

In Haryana, Bhupinder Singh Hooda has been the Chief Minister for the last two terms and the law of diminishing returns has caught up with him. In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, Congress won nine of the 10 Lok Sabha seats here, ensuring that the UPA got a second consecutive term. But in Assembly polls five months later, Hooda struggled to get 40 of the 90 seats for the Congress. It’s a different matter that he formed the Government after breaking the Haryana Janhit Congress, then led by Bhajan Lal and getting support of the Independents by offering them ministerial berths and positions of power. But the message in the 2009 Assembly polls was clear. The Congress was no longer the undisputed political force in the State and it was only due to the badly divided Opposition that it managed a second term.

After October 2009 Assembly polls, Hooda’s hold in the State continued to decline and so did the support base of Congress. In his second tenure, there was massive dissidence against Hooda with most of the senior leaders expressing no-confidence in his leadership. Rao Inderjit Singh, the MP from Gurgaon, launched an attack against him for indulging in regional discrimination. Eventually, Inderjit left the Congress, joined BJP and won from Gurgaon and is now a Minister in the Modi Government. Chaudhary Dharambir, a Congress MLA, was also a major dissident who dumped his party on the eve of the Lok Sabha polls, joined BJP and won from Bhiwani-Mahendragarh constituency. The third prominent leader who left Congress was none other than his close aide and friend — Venod Sharma. He resigned his MLA seat and will float a regional party. His sympathies too lie with the BJP at this point of time.

Then, there are two leaders in the Congress who did not leave the party but continued to attack Hooda publicly in all forums, within and outside the party. Rajya Sabha MPs Chaudhary Birender Singh and Selja never missed an opportunity to attack the Jat leader from Rohtak.

All these took a heavy toll on Congress and the party lost the Lok Sabha polls badly, winning only one of the 10 seats in the state. The lone seat which Congress won was Rohtak, where Hooda’s son Deepender Hooda managed a rare victory for the party.

Now when the writing is on the wall, a leadership change would perhaps help the party salvage some honour in the Assembly polls. The only problem is that there is hardly any credible replacement for Hooda. The probable names are Selja, Birender Singh, Randeep Singh Surjewala and Ashok Tanwar. Perhaps Hooda would continue as he systematically ensured that no second line of leadership emerged in the State. He is also seen to be close to the Gandhi family like his Maharashtra counterpart Chavan.

Senior Congress leaders feel that at this juncture, no one would risk taking the reins of the Government when polls are merely three months away. “Whoever is the Chief Minister, whether it is Hood or someone else, he would lead the party to sunset, to a certain defeat in the October polls,” summed up a senior party functionary. It seems despite the urgent need for a leadership change, Congress is hesitant as Hooda has the potential to inflict more damage if he is removed on the eve of polls. What all this means is that Congress has practically written off Haryana even though the Opposition is badly divided and the excellent performance of BJP in the Lok Sabha polls may not necessarily mean that it will win assembly polls as comfortably.

In Maharashtra, Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan has been blamed for one of the worst ever performance of the Congress in the State. It managed to win only two seats in the State, one of which was Nanded from where arch rival of the Chief Minister, Ashok Chavan got ticket despite the CMs objections and won.  Its ally NCP won four seats and the tally of the alliance was merely 6 of the 48 seats in the State. The State is scheduled to go to polls in December but elections could be advanced to be held together with Haryana in October. Chavan was sent to Maharashtra from Delhi in a damage control exercise after the Adarsh scam. He was an AICC general secretary and MoS in the PMO, a link between 10 Janpath and the Prime Minister in the UPA regime. Being a novice in State politics, hardly helped as Congress’ performance in the Lok Sabha polls showed.

With talk about a change of guard gaining momentum in Maharashtra, the names of former Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde, State Ministers Shivajirao Moghe, Bala Saheb Thorat and Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil along with Shivajirao Deshmukh who is the Chairman of Maharashtra Legislative Council, is doing the rounds and they are meeting the senior Congress leaders. Ironically, this is a State where the script has already been written whether Chavan is retained or removed.

Polls in Jharkhand are scheduled in the first week of January 2015 but the Election Commission is contemplating to hold all the assembly polls together. So it could well be advanced in the State. Given the BJP-Modi wave in Lok Sabha polls, BJP is the favourite and already a campaign has begun to project former Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha as the first non-tribal chief ministerial candidate of the party. Congress, in alliance with Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and Rashtriya Janata Dal is seeking to reverse the trend but has nothing to show on the ground except a tattered coalition facing a series of charges.

Given the ground realities in Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and even in Jammu & Kashmir, it would only be a miracle which can help check the decimation of the Congress in Assembly polls.

Procrastination and ad hoc approach in decision making has further compounded the woes of the party. Surprisingly, it has again formed Antony Committee to look into the reasons for defeat even though the same committee has gone through poll results in the past and its recommendations have never been implemented. Will Congress come out of the deep slumber? That is the million dollar question troubling everybody. (June 23, 2014) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/2014-06-23-55781.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/congress-faces-another-challenge-assembly-polls.html

Have we heard the last of BJP’s veterans?

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Even as elections 2014 proved to be a Tsunami for Narendra Modi-led BJP, its aftermath also swept away several veterans of the party who are now fighting for their political survival. While some are struggling to keep their political honour intact, others are fighting for their mere survival in the new power reality which envelopes Raisina Hills.

On top of this list is undoubtedly the perpetual rath Yatri, the most popular face of the Ram Janambhoomi movement whom many consider as the architect of resurgent BJP—LK Advani. He was the prime ministerial candidate of BJP in 2009 versus Manmohan Singh of Congress and lost the race rather badly. Even a non-performing sitting Prime Minister whom many considered merely as a rubber stamp, managed to score brownie political points against him and BJP had to sit out in the Opposition for a decade. Given his seniority and standing, obviously there is no position in the new power structure under Narendra Modi.

Advani, 86, could have nursed ambition of being the NDA Chairman in Modi regime to keep his political ego intact and to give the impression that he has some say in the new dispensation. This is largely a position for an elder statesman which he held before Modi became the Prime Minister. But in the new set-up, Advani is perhaps not needed even in this position so his existing nameplate in Parliament House was removed. There is no working NDA Chairman now and there is little possibility of the position being revived. Modi will be the de facto Chairman and will perhaps seek the help of parties like AIADMK, Trinamool and Biju Janata Dal to tide over important Bills in Rajya Sabha. As Advani played truant when the process was on to make Modi the prime ministerial candidate of the party, he is facing the music and the decision has complete backing of the Sangh which wants his political retirement.

Also, with Advani out of reckoning, there is little possibility now of disgruntled BJP elements rallying around him. As Pranab Mukherjee will be the President for another three years and retires only in 2017, Advani will have to wait till then. In politics, three years is a long time and the permutations and combinations could well change by then. Many in the RSS and BJP want Advani in a new role now, that of an elder statesman and a political guru who is there to bless the younger generation and not stake a claim to a position of power.

Murli Manohar Joshi too is out of favour as of now. The MP from Kanpur could well be a Governor of some state in the near future but there is little possibility of him occupying a position in the government. He expressed his unhappiness when shifted from Benares to Kanpur and perhaps this has not gone down well in the party when Modi was creating waves and was the architect of the historic mandate which the party got. At 80, age is also not on the side of the former BJP President, who remained the HRD minister in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government and credited for following the Sangh agenda of changing NCERT text books.

Then, there is Yashwant Sinha, the former IAS officer, who finds no place anywhere in the BJP scheme of things as of now. At 76, he too has crossed the age barrier of 75, which Modi apparently fixed as ceiling for Cabinet appointment. In any case, he did not contest the polls and was not a contender for a position. Ironically, he is now cooling his heels in a Hazaribagh Jail in Jharkhand as he refused to furnish a bail bond after being arrested for protesting against power shortage in the state. Some in the party see this as a move to emerge as a chief ministerial candidate of BJP in Jharkhand which is expected to go to polls by the end of this year. He lobbied for a ticket for his son Jayant from Hazaribagh, a constituency he represented on several occasions and now suddenly finds himself out of reckoning in the party. A former Finance Minister, Sinha nursing an ambition for state politics could be fallout of the new power structure in New Delhi. But the problem for him is the fact that there has been no non-tribal chief minister in Jharkhand ever since the state came into being in the year 2000 and there is little chance he would be projected as one now.

In Jharkhand, BJP has another veteran, MP for several terms, minister in Janata Party and Vajpayee governments and Deputy Speaker in the last Lok Sabha—Karia Munda. The simple tribal leader from Khunti was instrumental in strengthening BJP over the years in the region. But again, his age went against him. At 78, he is not getting any younger and could get a gubernatorial assignment if he agrees.

Shanta Kumar’s case in Himachal Pradesh is no different. Though the BJP veteran in the hill state came out of political retirement, rejuvenated the party and won from Kangra, he too was not considered for the Modi Cabinet due to age factor. His age (79) went against him even though he is considered a good administrator and has been a Union Minister and Himachal Chief Minister.

For another veteran and former External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh, 2014 could well prove to be the end of his political career. Denied party ticket, he contested as an Independent against the BJP candidate and lost from Barmer in Rajasthan. At 76, he faced the ignominy of being expelled for the second time from BJP in five years. He was BJP MP from Darjeeling in the last Lok Sabha and wanted to contest from his home state, a request turned down. After his defeat, Modi has apparently reached out to him and he could well be rehabilitated but clearly his days of glory are behind him.

Leave aside the Cabinet, none of the 75 plus leaders is being considered even for BJP President’s post which has to be filled soon. Someone from Gen next of BJP is expected to become the new BJP President and take over from Home Minister Rajnath Singh who is holding dual charge. No one in BJP wants to take a step back and have Advani or Joshi as its chief. It seems 75 is now the retirement age in the new government. You can contest an election, become an MP of BJP but cannot aspire for a ministerial berth if you cross this age. Well, if a government servant can retire at 60 why not the ministers at 75?

But there are many other leaders who are practically lined up to be rehabilitated in Constitutional positions due to their long association with the RSS, Jan Sangh or the BJP. Veteran of many a battle in Uttar Pradesh, Kalyan Singh, VK Malhotra from Delhi, former Lucknow MP Lalji Tandon, senior party leader from Madhya Pradesh Kailash Joshi and former Speaker of UP Kesari Nath Tripathi did not play any role in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Being old party loyalists, they could well be Governors as and when the Modi government takes a call on the issue and removes the political appointees of the UPA regime.

So far, the message is loud and clear. Grey is out of favour as a generational change has taken place in BJP politics and this practice is here to stay for a long time. (June 16, 2014) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/have-we-heard-the-last-of-bjps-political-veterans.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/2014-06-15-54862.html

Fratricidal war within Cong after electoral humiliation

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

After annihilation in the Lok Sabha polls with little possibility of even getting the status of Leader of Opposition, Congress remains in the self destruct mode. It has learnt little from the humiliation meted out to it by the electorate and continues to live in the past without realising the new challenges which stare the party in the eye.

The latest strategic folly of the party was the refusal of Rahul Gandhi to assume the mantle of leader of the party in Lok Sabha. Failing to learn from his mistakes, Rahul refused to take any responsibility following the rout of the party. He had consistently refused to join the Manmohan Singh Cabinet and now when the situation beckoned, he did not even become the leader of his party in Lok Sabha. This experience could undoubtedly have given him a great parliamentary experience — initiating discussion on important issues and targeting the government when needed. He could have sharpened his skills as an orator and learnt how the Parliament and government functions from close quarters. But after this fiasco, now the impression will gain ground that all that Rahul wants to get is the Prime Minister’s chair and considers all other positions demeaning to him.

Could the Congress politically explain why it chose Mallikarjun Kharge as the leader of the group in Lok Sabha? Wasn’t being Dalit the sole criteria for the selection of Kharge, who has little exposure of central politics, being elevated to the position? Of course, Congress has no significant leader left after the bloodless massacre on May 16 but still it had options. Apart from Rahul himself, there was nine-time MP Kamal Nath who holds a record on behalf of the party for so many victories amid ruins in Madhya Pradesh. Then, there was the experienced Capt Amarinder Singh, the aggressive Jat Sikh leader who defeated Arun Jaitley from Amritsar. Capt Amarinder eventually got the deputy leader’s post and on any given day is a better choice than Kharge due to his aggressive stand and skills as an orator. Also, given Rahul’s pet projects of democratisation of the party and holding of primaries, could anyone explain why elections were not held for the post and instead nomination route was preferred.

For how long could the Congress keep playing the Dalit-minority-poverty-deprivation-Rights card despite being rejected thoroughly on those very grounds in 2014? Wouldn’t the party reinvent itself to cater to the aspirations of the new millennium? Why is it on a self-destruct mode and wants to commit political hara-kiri? The country needs Congress more than Rahul Gandhi needs the party for airing views which is left of the centre and for the balancing act. But such strategies only strengthen the belief that there is no introspection on major decisions and action precedes political thought.

If consistency in strategic mistakes were not enough, there is internal strife in the party which is unmatched. To some extent this is expected as the party faces an existential threat after its humiliation in the elections but the way internal strife is consuming the party’s energy was largely unexpected.

The loudmouth Mani Shankar Aiyar, whose chaiwala remark against Narendra Modi created uproar and helped BJP tremendously in the run up to the polls as it showed Congress in an autocratic and aristocratic way, is up at it again. He took on Shashi Tharoor unnecessary in an internal party battle when the Kerala MP praised Modi’s style of governance after taking over as Prime Minister. While Tharoor looked like playing the role of a constructive Opposition — criticising when necessary and praising when the demand arose, Aiyar was bent on playing the old role of destructive Opposition — criticism just for the sake of it without any reason or rhyme.

Congress should have chided Aiyar for his chaiwala remark and restrained him once and for all due to the damage he inflicted on his party. His political relevance ended 20 years ago and he should have been bluntly told that. But then, all shades of opinion continue to come out of the Congress, sending confusing signals all around damaging it continuously and now leading to paralysis.

Aiyar is a symptom of the ills plaguing the Congress. In major states which go to polls this year, there is an internal war being fought out in the open. It is set to consume the party. In Haryana, where the Congress won only one of the 10 Lok Sabha seats, daggers are out against Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda. Former Union Minister and now a Rajya Sabha MP, Selja is fighting a spirited battle for control of Haryana Congress. She has perhaps forgotten that elections are merely four months away and the battle would further damage the already

fragile position of the party. Hooda may not be in a wining position now but then when you continued with him for over nine years, you cannot change the horse midstream.

In Maharashtra, where the Congress-NCP faced a rout, demand is being raised to fix accountability for the loss at Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan’s door. Chavan is referred to as the Manmohan Singh of Maharashtra and may have contributed the defeat, but the issue could have been tackled internally without squabbles.

After a spell of President’s rule, Delhi would also go for Assembly polls along with Haryana and Maharashtra. Here, the Congress is facing extinction as Aam Aadmi Party has taken its space completely. Ajay Maken could be projected as the chief ministerial candidate to better its prospects but he too faces internal rivalry. The party will have to first recover the ground lost to AAP before it can make any move on its own. So far, there is hardly any strategy nor is the party planning anything despite polls looming in the horizon.

Punjab is another case study of the Congress culture and what ails the party. After its loss in the Lok Sabha polls, a fierce battle broke out between state Congress president Partap Singh Bajwa and Capt Amarinder Singh. Only swords were not used otherwise all kinds of abuses and counter abuses were hurled at each other. What the two were fighting for was crumbs not for power. Both damaged the prospects of the party and its base in the process forgetting that AAP was waiting in the wings to replace it as the Opposition with four seats in the Lok Sabha polls from the State. Capt Amarinder’s faction called for temporary truce only after he was made deputy leader of the party in the Lok Sabha. As he cannot hold two posts and be the PCC president now, he is maintaining a strategic silence. But the damage has already been done. People are still wondering when energy should be preserved to fight your political opponents and to enlarge your base, why indulge in such a fratricidal war.

After the loss in the LS polls, it seems Congress has lost its will to fight the next electoral battle — Assembly polls. There is no strategy in place for the States, no action plan, no decisions… It looks as if the party has already conceded defeat and given a walkover. It was time the party looked beyond defeat and the defeatist mentality. Democracy would be poorer if Congress conceded its space to some other party. (June 9, 2014) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/2014-06-08-54056.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/fratricidal-war-within-cong-after-electoral-humiliation.html

Development has to be area, district & State specific

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

With Narendra Modi taking over as the Prime Minister of the country, there is buzz and anticipation about the Gujarat model of development, triggering a debate whether it can be replicated elsewhere in the country even with a reduced rate of success.

I am writing this week’s column from a small town in north Bihar so it would be prudent to examine development and social parameters along with the milieu in which it has been set in to see if it is practical to expect that the Gujarat model can ever be implemented in Bihar to any degree.

As the economy progresses and urbanisation increases, caste takes a backseat. It loosened its grip in Gujarat long time back even though Congress came out with the imaginative abbreviation of KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, Muslim) almost four decades ago and exploited it for electoral ends. As aspirations rose, KHAM collapsed, so did Congress and BJP reigned supreme in the coastal State due to its government policies tailor-made for the State.

On the other hand, in Bihar, there is little sign of caste losing its strong grip not only in social interaction but also in politics. In fact, the impressive performance of BJP in Lok Sabha polls here was due to consolidation of votes of upper castes, non-Yadav and non-Kurmi OBCs and Dalits. Of course, polarisation and Modi factor too were catalysts in this but caste as always played a crucial role in electoral outcome.

Then, there is a historical disadvantage which Bihar faces. Gujarat was always known for trade and commerce even in the ancient and medieval periods of history. It had a port for foreign trade even in the days of Indus Valley civilisation, 4,000 years ago. That legacy continued in the State all these centuries reinvigorating its mercantile class. Bihar, on the contrary, never had a knack for money economy, dependent as it was on agriculture and exporting its talent to rest of the country through its universities (Nalanda). So there is no comparison there.

In the last three-four decades when the Gujaratis were moving to all corners of the world for exploring new business avenues, people from Bihar were more interested in getting into the civil services due to the conditioning dating back to the British period that power vests only in the District Magistrates and Secretaries to the Government.

Due to historical and geographical advantage, you always had heavy industrialisation in Gujarat. Only the type of industry changed over a period of time from textiles to oil to pharmaceuticals to finance to manufacturing. But in Bihar, there is practically no medium scale private sector what to talk of large scale and heavy industrialisation. Private sector employment is limited to the buses as drivers and conductors, in big shops as attendants and as seasonal laborers in the sugar mills of north Bihar.

In Gujarat, almost everyone wants to become an entrepreneur and start their own business due to social and religious conditioning of centuries and favorable factors, in Bihar everyone wants the security of a government job and would happily give his right arm for it, even for the job of a peon. In Bihar, government is still seen as the Mai-Baap the way it was seen in British India, underlying a strong presence of feudal value system but in Gujarat it is merely seen as a facilitator for the people and their enterprise.         

So where is the meeting point? Social, cultural, historical, cultural, geographical… in fact, all factors are entirely different in all States. It is here that Narendra Modi has a challenge. Not only Bihar, all States of the country have their own strengths and weaknesses and that has to be factored in for making a plan for micro-policies, block and sub-division specific, district specific and then State specific. No development model can ever be imported and imposed on a State without factoring in the local factors.

From where will the Modi Government start in Bihar or for that matter in Uttar Pradesh or West Bengal? Riding a wave of expectations, it simply cannot afford the model which the UPA Government adopted and perfected over the years — shut your eyes to the problem.

Bihar’s strength is education. Why can’t the Central Government make it the education hub of the country in the next five years? Start with overhauling the government education system in cooperation with the State Government. Start with the schools, then colleges and universities followed by professional education. Thousands of engineering aspirants from Bihar go to Kota for coaching. Even the teachers there are from Bihar. Kota in Rajasthan is booming on Bihar’s money. I don’t see any reason why students from all over the country can’t come to Bihar if a serious attempt is made to address infrastructural issues in education with a desire to overcome the odds. Last 10 years of UPA and nine years of JDU in Bihar has done little on this front.

You cannot develop entrepreneurial skills overnight in anyone. So, it will take time before people from any region take to risk taking, money management and business like in Gujarat. But, agriculture and allied sectors could be the area which requires a big push at this juncture. I was surprised to know that most of the fish eaten in Bihar comes from faraway Andhra Pradesh. People of Bihar eat a copious amount of fish and there is hardly any local produce except from the rivers.

There is little being done to promote allied agricultural activities. Of course, some farmers in Bihar are trying to diversify but there is hardly any institutional support for them. In north Bihar, the sugar belt, farmers are sowing sugarcane, waiting for a year and then selling the produce to the mills. This is profitable but they have little to do between sowing time and harvest and this is a period of 11 months. This time could be used to bring in new skills to them through government sponsored centres in specific courses. People would simply line up to acquire new skills and use them for generating wealth for themselves and the society.

Infrastructural handicap is there. Electricity is too erratic and it is hardly an area of concern for anyone. If gas-based power plants could come up elsewhere, why not in Bihar? In fact, the State could go in for developing hydro projects in neighbouring Nepal as well in joint ventures provided the political will is there. But it seems a far cry. Roads are in good shape in the state as Nitish Kumar had done well on that front. But still, I don’t know why some of the National Highways are in very bad shape.

There is simply no planning as projects are being taken on a case to case basis without a holistic approach. This needs to be overhauled. A case in point is a river bridge to connect Uttar Pradesh to Bihar which was inaugurated on river Gandak in November last year, reducing the distance between the two States and giving a direct and short connectivity to Delhi. Even though the bridge was constructed, there was no attempt to work on the approach road which remains a broken a single lane road. The officials who traversed on this single lane poorly maintained road must have noticed it but made no efforts to convert it to two-lane in the four years the bridge took for construction. So, few would use the new bridge unless the approach road is in shape. How could any official miss this?

Each model of development has to be different from the other, keeping in view the local strengths and weaknesses. The Modi Government has to look into this, rope in the experts and formulate a long term holistic policy. Micro-planning and strategy would be the key to success. (June 2, 1014) 

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Politics would never be the same again

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Narendra Modi will take oath as the new Prime Minister of the country on May 26, making it clear through the Verdict 2014 that a new political script for the Hindi heartland has been written. What is also clear is the fact that the 25-year-old Mandal politics has been demolished with little chance of its revival.

Modi and the resurgent BJP have rewritten the rules of the game which the veterans of Mandal politics are finding difficult to decipher. Looking at the statements of SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, RJD boss Lalu Prasad and BSP supremo Mayawati after the electorate rejected them, you can see utter confusion. They are still analysing their rout in old paradigm of politics and finding it difficult to understand why their old magic is not attractive enough to make a decent electoral outing.

Watching an interview of Lalu Prasad was an eye-opener. He failed to realise that development could ever be a poll issue. He kept on bragging about the Muslim-Yadav alliance in the State even though his party was thoroughly routed. BJP had never been a dominant political force in Bihar as it contested in alliance with the Samta Party and later JDU in Bihar in the last 18 years. For the first time, it contested alone and swept the polls, demolishing all caste equations, social theories and politics based on calculators where numerical strength of castes is added up to get a bigger picture.

As Lalu Prasad is still grappling with the results, he has found nothing wrong in the politics he follows — raking up the caste factor, insecurity of Muslims, bringing in social justice whatever its meaning today and bringing out a calculator and totalling the castes and sub-castes in a constituency. Not only the Bihar leader but all those born and strengthened due to Mandal politics have failed to read the writing on the wall.

As the rules have changed, they are yet to realise that aspiration for a better life, education, jobs, development, better power and infrastructure too count a lot in the voting preferences of the people. For them, these issues don’t even exist as they want the electorate to vote only for so-called issue of ‘social justice’ and keep them trapped in the politics of a quarter of century ago.

A lot of water has flown in the Ganges in 25 years but the parties who benefited from the implementation of Mandal Commission have kept themselves firmly secured in a timeframe and don’t want to get out of it.

Modi may or may not fulfil the aspirations of the people who voted for the Lotus but he has read the pulse of the people. Along with a subtle polarisation and reverse polarisation, what really mattered was catering to the aspirations of those who want a better life for themselves and their next generation. It was hope and optimism versus pessimism in UP and Bihar.

Early in his political innings as Bihar Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar realised the futility of banking heavily only on caste and carried forward the agenda of development and creation of basic infrastructure. But in 2014, he was outsmarted by BJP as it was offering a better agenda and a better future for the aspiring class. Also everyone in Bihar knew that they were voting for a Government in New Delhi and not in Patna.

Now, the deft players of Mandal politics are coming together, realising that Congress has become too weak to challenge the resurgent BJP under Modi. RJD is supporting the JDU Government led by Jitan Ram Manjhi in Bihar. Nitish and Lalu Prasad were old friends united as they were by the OBC politics unleashed by the Mandal commission, then sworn enemies and now they are coming closer once again due to the threat on their political survival.

In neighbouring Uttar Pradesh, the den of caste-based politics, Samajwadi Party is facing the heat as those who are getting social justice are only the family members of party boss Mulayam Singh Yadav. So far, there has been no development on BSP and SP coming closer to fight BJP. Both these social justice parties have so much of acrimony and personal hatred that they can never ever come closer even if the threat is that of extinction. In the last 10 years, both BSP and SP played a friendly match with the Congress and UPA in the Centre due to their vested interests and the tentacles of CBI on their leaders. The voters in 2014 saw through the game and failed to distinguish between the three, giving them a sound thrashing.

Politics may be a game of uncertainties, but what is certain is that here 2 plus 2 does not make four. For instance, in Bihar even if JDU and RJD form an alliance for the Assembly polls and persuade Congress to join them, all the votes which they got in the Lok Sabha polls may not add up and make then victorious. Then, there are so many incompatibilities between the two that they would only see the short-term gains like forming the Government and not long term social alliance.

The tone and tenor of OBC politics of 1989 and the 1990s has now changed completely when Modi is assuming power. In UP and Bihar, which send 120 members to Lok Sabha, the hold of caste as a determining factor in elections is changing fast. The SP was voted to power in UP in 2012 simply because people wanted and expected more from it than the previous BSP regime. In Bihar, the vote was for the social alliance which the BJP and JDU together represented for the last nine years. Of course, after JDU and BJP parted ways in 2013, the Government should have resigned and ordered for fresh elections as it no longer was an alliance of social forces and the platform for which votes were sought together, was no longer there.

When the rules of the game are changing at a rapid pace, the regional parties need to reinvent themselves to remain relevant. In a democracy, you need divergent opinions and interest groups for policy formulation for a country as linguistically, socially and religiously diverse as India. But in the two States of UP and Bihar, the main regional parties have failed to introspect, failed to address the concerns and aspirations of a new generation, rooted as they are in dynasty and caste with only motive being to get power. You cannot fight a modern electoral war with tools invented decades ago. Change or perish, is the larger message of the Verdict 2014 for the regional forces of the Hindi heartland. (May 26, 2014) 

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Will Congress fade away or reinvent itself?

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

I have been a student of Congress politics for quite some time, observing the grand old party, reporting and commenting on it.

The party fascinates me as a journalist as I found it quite remarkable that it had turned into election winning machinery even though it was bereft of a sound ideological position. Since the late 1960s, after the euphoria over Independence waned, I always found it as an umbrella organisation for various castes, communities, interests and ambitions glued together by the Nehru-Gandhi family.

What interested me over a period of time was to find reasons why people vote for the Congress even though it is bereft of a cohesive ideology and fresh ideas. In 1971, it was due to the victory over Pakistan and carving out Bangladesh that won Indira Gandhi the election. In 1980, Congress won simply because of TINA (There is no alternative) factor. The Janata Party experiment of 1977 had flopped badly by then. In 1984, people voted for it because of Indira’s assassination and sympathy for her son Rajiv Gandhi. The massive mandate was squandered within the first two years. In 1991, it got votes due to two reasons — the flop Janata Dal experience and sympathy due to Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination.

After eight years of non-Congress Governments, in 2004, Congress was voted to power and this was repeated in 2009. I am yet to find a logical explanation for two consecutive victories. I have talked to a lot of politicians, academicians and social scientists over a period of time, no one convinced my why Congress succeeded twice despite a weak and timid leadership, lack of ideas and ideology. It is precisely because of this that I say that for a while, the party had turned into election winning machinery and got too overconfident for 2014.

While anti-incumbency of Vajpayee Government was a plausible though not a convincing reason for victory in 2004, there was none in 2009. Perhaps, people compared the two prime ministerial candidates in 2009 —

LK Advani and Manmohan Singh and found the latter more promising. Of course, I am not buying the theory that the bringing of legislations on “Rights” was a reason for two victories. If that had been the case, the party would have won even in 2014.

Covering Congress party over a period of time was quite interesting. It was really amusing to write and report how its leaders practically stabbed each other but the crime was mitigated as they raised slogans in favour of the first family. Every act was condoned in the party as long as you hailed the first family. In the same vein, all good acts as a Congress leader was washed down the drain if you failed to attribute it to the family. Non family Prime Ministers PV Narasimha Rao and Manmohan Singh are prime examples. They will not be even in the footnotes of Congress history if it continues to be written by a member of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty.

The verdict of 2014 has not only exploded several myths about the Congress but also exposed it like never before. It can no longer float in an ideological vacuum without withering away. It has been reduced to a caricature of sorts following the Lok Sabha polls, but no one in the Congress is talking about changing the ideological discourse of the party. BJP is right of the Centre but the space on left of the Centre is vacant. Congress will have to take that place firmly by a series of changes and that does not only mean raking up the secular-communal debate every now and then and invoking what Gandhi did in the 1930s, Nehru in the 50s, Indira and Rajiv in the 80s. It was hilarious to see Rahul Gandhi seeking votes for what his father did 25-30 years ago, forgetting that voters had voted his father and Congress out for precisely those very reasons.

Verdict 2014 showed that it is the Right that is on upswing. The Right of the Centre is the flavour of the season, it has appealed to the youth as the idea is fresh and there is hope and pessimism in the idea. There could be a sub text of polarisation and reverse polarisation as well but it was more of a desire for change which gave Narendra Modi the historic verdict.

While Rahul Gandhi represented pessimism, repetition, lack of idea along with feudal and paternalistic approach in 2014, Modi represented hope and optimism, full of ideas and all that the youth expects from a leader in this age and era. Rahul may be two decades younger to Modi but he fought the electoral

battle with tools which are four decades old. On the contrary, Modi spoke the language of the youth through the medium they use.

Rahul practically used the half a century old Congress slogan of Garibi Hatao when he referred to giving doles to the poor, conveniently forgetting that if poverty has not been banished all these years, surely Congress is to blame as it was in power for the longest tenure. For many it seemed that the supreme leader of the Congress — Rahul — spoke first and thought later, a sharp contrast to Modi, who did his homework and gave a separate speech in each of his meetings.

Clearly, Congress needs to reinvent itself to make the party appealing to the youth and catering to the aspirations of the neo middle class and those aspiring to get into the middle class. It can no longer think and talk only about doles, throwing food, medicines and freebies at the poor. People have rejected that. Now come out with something which can outsmart the BJP. Watch the Modi Government for a while and devise fresh strategy for the sections which are left out of the scheme of things of the new Government.

Despite a drubbing of a lifetime, I am now bewildered at the way the Congress wants to commit political hara-kiri. After being demolished and given the knockout punch, the party lies flat in the wake of the Narendra Modi Tsunami. But still, it is not looking within for answers. It is looking for scapegoats for defeat and what better person than Manmohan Singh to blame for it who can neither react nor is interested after having a decade in sunshine as the Prime Minister. Besides, a war of self destruction has begun in states like Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and others where leaders are demanding the resignation of their rivals within the party to settle political scores rather than thinking of ways and means to strengthen their party and motivate the workers.

The first and foremost need for the Congress is to democratise the organisation. They should hold primaries within the party the way Rahul did for 15 parliamentary constituencies and elect a leader. Of course, if Rahul is elected as president through a secret ballot in a fair election, it would be the internal matter of the party. In this age and era, dynastic politics of Congress style is not going to work. The Congress vice president has been preaching what he never practiced. This has been exposed and the election result showed that Rahul’s popularity is at all time low and people do not see leadership skills and qualities in him. Even Priyanka’s jibe aimed at Modi in Amethi was bereft of any substance. It did get on the

airwaves, consumed newsprint but proved counterproductive in the end. Of course, she should also contest the organisational elections of the Congress and if the party members vote for her, she could get more responsibilities.

In the age of communications, Congress was found wanting. Whenever Rahul spoke to the media and addressed them a couple of times, he lost hundreds of votes. So poor is his communication outreach that more or less he looks like an arrogant brat who is not interested in the job he is doing, imposed on the people from above — a leader who got everything without political merit. Moreover, he was more into sermonising than finding solutions. No one, even the dumbest, wants to be lectured at. More so by a person who is himself not qualified as he is yet to prove his mettle either as a mass leader or in an organisation or in the Government. That is the tragedy of Rahul Gandhi. The sooner he himself and other Congress leaders realise it, the better for the party. (May 19, 2014) 

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Revolt breaks out in Punjab Congress

Amitabh Shukla | Chandigarh

A day after Congress lost badly in Punjab and was pushed to the third position, dissidence broke out in the party with the loyalists of former Chief Minister and giant killer, Capt Amarinder Singh demanding the resignation of State party president Partap Singh Bajwa.

Interestingly, even as the Amarinder loyalists demanded the resignation of Bajwa, they refused to demand the resignation of Congress chief Sonia Gandhi or vice-president Rahul Gandhi under whose leadership the party gave its worst-ever performance in the last 60 years.

Congress had won only three of the 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab. In the outgoing House, it had eight members. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) edged it to the third position by bagging four seats and emerging as an alternative political force in the State dominated by two parties — SAD-BJP on one side and Congress on the other.

The fresh bout of dissidence came as Capt Amarinder emerged stronger after defeating BJP veteran and Leader of Opposition in Rajya Sabha, Arun Jaitley from the prestigious Amritsar seat. In the entire country, the victory in Amritsar is the only silver lining of the Congress as all its citadels were demolished. The victory was all the more exciting for Capt Amarinder as he defeated Jaitley, widely expected to be the number two in the Narendra Modi-led new Government.

Though Capt Amarinder’s wife, Preneet Kaur lost the Congress stronghold of Patiala to AAP’s Dharamvira Gandhi, bringing into question the hold of the former Maharaja in his backyard, the faction loyal to him believes that it was due to Bajwa that the party lost badly. What has made matters worse for Bajwa now is the fact that he himself lost to Vinod Khanna in Gurdaspur by 1.36 lakh votes and the party could not even get lead in Qadian Assembly segment, represented by his wife as MLA.

Firing the first salvo, Kewal Singh Dhillon, vice-president of the PPCC along with several senior Congress leaders and legislators demanded that Bajwa should own moral responsibility for the party’s poor showing and resign from the post. They pointed out that it was one of the worst performances by the party despite widespread anti-incumbency prevailing against the Akali-BJP Government in the State. They did not refer to the anti-incumbency prevailing against the UPA Government and the wave against Congress in the entire country.

Aiming to hit when the iron is hot, almost all who are loyal to Capt Amarinder are gunning for Bajwa now. They were against Bajwa from the very beginning but now the defeat has given fresh ammunition to them. Capt Amarinder was replaced as PCC president last year after presiding over a series of defeats under his stewardship. The party lost the 2012 Assembly polls when Capt Amarinder was the PCC president and the chief ministerial candidate. It also lost the local body elections and byelections as well.

Those who demanded the resignation of Bajwa on Saturday include top leaders and MLAs — Kewal Singh Dhillon, OP Soni, Dr Raj Kumar Verka, Kikki Dhillon, Avtar Henry, Jugal Kishore, Harchand Kaur, Mohammad Sadiq, Gupreet Kangar, Rana Gurjit, Surinder Singla Ramanjit Singh Sikki, Rana KP, Love Kumar Goldy, Tarsem DC, Ranjeet Singh Chhajalwadi, Sukh Sarkaria, Ch Jagjit, Raman Bhalla, Amrik Singh Dhillon, Ajaib Singh Bhatti, Makhan Singh, Sher Singh Gaggowal, Surjit Singh Dhiman, Ajaib Singh Rataul, Sunil Datti, Kaka Lohgar, Dr Agnihotri, Gur Iqbal Kaur and Hardayal Kambhoj.

The first to demand the resignation on the day of results itself was Guru Harsahai MLA Rana Gurmeet Singh Sodhi, also a staunch supporter of Capt Amarinder.

“The unprecedented defeat of the Congress in Punjab in the Parliamentary elections has shamed and shocked everybody. PCC president Partap Singh Bajwa must own the moral responsibility and resign from the post. However, if he declines to resign, he must be removed,” they said.

Citing reasons, the leaders said it was important to boost the morale of the party in Punjab and handover the party leadership to a strong, powerful and charismatic leader like Capt Amarinder Singh. “It is high time that the Congress high command takes the immediate and radical measure lest it be too late and the party suffers further,” they added.

Sidestepping any pretensions that the “banner of revolt” against Bajwa is sponsored by Capt Amarinder himself, the leaders maintained that Capt Amarinder has proved to be a mass leader not once but several times and his victory against the BJP stalwart Arun Jaitley has reinforced the public belief.

“Bajwa has failed as a leader. He has not only led to the wrong selection of candidates for the Parliament, but also not been able to provide the required leadership the party needed in Punjab,” they said, adding, so many MLAs have left under his leadership as he has not allowed his ego to be subdued to the party interest.

The party leaders said, Bajwa’s replacement was also important to ensure that the continuous drift in the party was arrested. They pointed out, the party vote share had fallen from 42 per cent in 2012 to 32 per cent now.

Party sources in New Delhi said that it is extremely unlikely that the central leadership of Congress will take a call  in Punjab as it will trigger demands from the rest of the country and lead to demands for the resignation of top leadership of the party — Sonia and Rahul Gandhi. (May 18, 2014) 

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BJP creates history in Haryana

Amitabh Shukla | Chandigarh

For the first time ever since the BJP was born in 1980, Haryana wrote a new political script for the party on Friday. As the results tumbled out from the EVMs, BJP dumped both the Congress and the INLD led by the Chautala family, winning seven of the 10 seats in the State, its best ever performance.

The Narendra Modi Tsunami, which was seen all over the country, manifested itself in Haryana as well with all its magnificence with the party not only gaining a foothold in the State which neighbours, the national Capital, but striking deep roots. The victory is all the more sweet for BJP as it never had a strong leader in the State nor has it got an identifiable face for the party. “It was all due to the effort of the organisation, RSS, anti-incumbency and anger against Congress Governments in the State and the Centre,” a BJP leader said here.

BJP had always banked on alliances in the State to get a foothold. Earlier, it was Bansi Lal and Chaudhary Devi Lal and later Om Prakash Chautala with whom the party allied in Haryana. This time too, the party was in alliance with the Kuldeep Bishnoi-led Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC). Ironically, HJC lost all the two seats it contested — Hisar and Sirsa. Bishnoi, the sitting MP from Hisar himself lost the poll to 26-year-old Dushyant Chautala and also resigned as president of his party.

Modi wave in Haryana demolished the caste equations completely as BJP got votes all across the State, cutting caste divide. BJP-HJC alliance was billed as a non Jat platform as both the Congress and INLD are led by Jats. But the party managed to make massive inroads not only amongst the non-Jat community but even in the Jat dominated seats of Sonipat and Bhiwani-Mahendragarh.

Congress won only the Jat bastion of Rohtak from where Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda’s son Deepinder contested and made a hatrick of wins. This is considered a pocket borough of the Hooda family. For the Chief Minister, the result is nothing sort of a major setback as it came five months before the Assembly polls. The State goes to polls in October and given the trend in the Lok Sabha polls, BJP is set to form the next Government.

The challenge before the BJP now would be to take a call on it alliance with HJC. The Bishnoi led party does not have an influence beyond 2-3 Assembly seats in Haryana even though it will contest 45 of the 90 seats in the Assembly. BJP sources in Haryana say there could be a rethink on the alliance as it has failed to click.

BJP gained in Haryana as there was a political vacuum in the State with both the ruling Congress and Opposition INLD embroiled in high-profile corruption cases. While Hooda was accused of favouring Robert Vadra, the son-in-law of Congress president Sonia Gandhi and also hounding honest officials, the INLD had its own problems. The father-son duo of OP Chautala and Ajay Chautala are serving ten year jail term for teachers’ recruitment scam. With both the ruling party and the opposition discredited, BJP made an impressive mark in the polls so much so that though it has only three MLAs from the State, now it will have seven MPs. Aam Aadmi Party failed to make its presence felt in the state despite its top leaders Arvind Kejriwal and Yogendra Yadav hailing from the state. Yadav even lost his security deposit from Gurgaon.

Almost every BJP leader in the State attributed the success to Narendra Modi and linked it with the countrywide trend. Some Congress leaders, on the other hand, blamed Hooda’s non-performance in his second term, the perception that there was criminalisation of politics, rising expectations and of course all those factors which made BJP win at the national level.

From the perspective of the State, many in Haryana see the results only as a semi-final as for them, it will be the Assembly elections which will be the main final, In the next 2-3 months, in the run up to the Assembly polls, great churning is expected to take place in Haryana politics with BJP on the swing and Congress on a decline. (May 17, 2014) 

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