VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
Despite BJP sweeping Haryana in
Lok Sabha polls, winning 7 of the 8 seats it contested, the State is set to
witness a fierce, multi-cornered battle
in Assembly polls three months from now.
There is almost a political
unanimity on the fact that the best ever performance by the BJP in the State
was largely due to “Modi wave” which was the macro factor all over north and
western India .
There is also an agreement on the fact that this overriding factor has by and
large subsided now. Even Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda conceded in his
meetings that there was a Tsunami which has come to an end and Assembly polls
are a different ball game altogether. The reason is simple. BJP victory came in
Haryana even though the party did not have an organisation at the grass roots
level and in some seats, it was forced to field last minute candidates from
outside the State and turncoats from other parties.
Ironically, despite all his
follies and allegations against him, Chief Minister Hooda continues to be the
tallest leader of the State as there is no one even from the Opposition to
challenge him. The main Opposition Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) is
practically paralysed as two of its top leaders—Om Prakash Chautala and his son
Ajay Chautala—are in jail for quite a while. Though INLD won two seats in Lok
Sabha polls, absence of its top leaders from the election campaign will surely
affect its chances. The father-son duo, obviously Chief Ministerial candidates,
has been convicted and cannot even contest the elections, creating gaping holes
in the party. Abhay Chautala, the other son of O P Chautala, could now perhaps
be the Chief Ministerial candidate as the regional party cannot see anyone
beyond the family to control the reins of power. It is fighting with its hands
tied and though there is sympathy for the jailed father-son duo in the Jat
community, this may not be enough for the party to see it through this tough
battle.
As INLD has its share of problems,
Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) led by Kuldeep Bishnoi has practically been a
political non-starter. An ally of the BJP, it was allotted two seats in the Lok
Sabha polls and lost both despite a Modi wave in the State. Bishnoi himself
lost from Hisar, a seat which he won in a bye-election in 2011. His father
Chaudhary Bhajan Lal won from Hisar in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls but his death
led to a bye-election. Now questions are
being raised in BJP circles about the efficacy of the alliance with HJC. “When
he cannot even win in a Modi wave, how can he win in normal circumstances?”
questioned a senior BJP leader here.
Interestingly, BJP entered into
an ill conceived alliance with HJC almost three years ago in which they decided
to contest 45 seats each in the 90 member Haryana Assembly. Both BJP and HJC
had also decided to share the Chief Minister’s post for two and a half years
each if they are voted to power in October 2014 Assembly polls. But that
alliance seems to have been stitched decades ago as ground situation has
changed drastically in favour of BJP and against HJC, particularly after the
Lok Sabha polls.
For BJP, the biggest problem
right now is how to wriggle out of the alliance with HJC. Senior BJP leaders
know that HJC is now a major liability and it has no presence outside the Hisar
belt, the fiefdom of Bhajan Lal. Bishnoi does not have the charisma of his
father Bhajan Lal to bring the non-Jats on a platform which BJP was looking
for.
The second problem for BJP is the
absence of a leader who has an imprint all over the State and who could be
projected as the Chief Ministerial candidate of the party. Rao Inderjit Singh,
MP from Gurgaon and Minister in the Modi Cabinet is an import from Congress and
is not acceptable to the cadres and middle ranking leaders. Another Minister in
the Modi Cabinet from Haryana Krishnapal Gurjar, the MP from Faridabad
is not known outside his constituency. Capt Abhimanyu, spokesperson of the BJP
too has been active but lacks ground support. Om Prakash Dhankar, national President
of BJP’s Kisan Morcha hails from Rohtak and was the only party candidate who
lost the Lok Sabha polls to Deepender Hooda. This could weaken his chances of
projection as the Chief Ministerial candidate even though he hails from the
dominant Jat community. State BJP President Ram Bilas Sharma too hasn’t got
much following and acceptability in the party.
No wonder even as elections are
round the corner, BJP is yet to announce its Chief Ministerial candidate. In
fact, so far even the consultation has not begun. Party sources say that once a
new BJP President takes over from Rajnath Singh in New
Delhi , a decision could be taken. But so far, there is
a sense of confusion amongst the BJP cadres on the issue.
Problems are plenty in Congress
as well, the main being the revolt of senior Congress leaders against the
leadership of Hooda. Chaudhary Birender Singh a bête noire of Hooda, has
declared that he won’t contest the polls under Hooda’s leadership. Though
Birender does not have much of an influence in the Jat Community and lost the
2009 Assembly polls, his continuous tirade against Hooda has affected the
functioning of the party and the morale of Congress workers. Then you have
former Union Minister Selja who too has been a vocal critic of Hooda and is leaving
no opportunity to target the Chief Minister. Despite Hooda opposing here, Selja
was nominated for the Rajya Sabha weeks before the Lok Sabha polls and escaped
being a victim of the Modi wave from her constituency of Ambala. A Dalit
leader, she has limited influence in the state but of late has become the
rallying point of the dissidents who want to dislodge Hooda. The Chief Minister
got another setback, weeks before the Lok Sabha polls when his friend and
former minister Venod Sharma walked away from Congress and has now formed a
regional party.
Despite all odds, Hooda is first
off the block to launch his campaign for the Assembly polls. Even as the INLD
and BJP are contemplating their next move, Hooda is addressing political
rallies throughout the State accompanied by Haryana Congress President Ashok
Tanwar. He has been mocking at the Gujarat model of
development in his speeches and asking what has the Modi Government does in its
first month. Backed by the State machinery and an advertisement campaign, Hooda
is leaving no stone unturned. Though he is facing double anti-incumbency, both
at the State level and of the UPA in the Centre, he is not expected to leave
the battle without a fierce fight.
Given the ground situation, a
quagmire of political possibilities could emerge in Haryana. Already, there is
a buzz about four-cornered contest with BJP walking away from its alliance with
HJC in the next two weeks. So Congress, BJP, INLD and HJC would battle it out
separately for supremacy for the 90 seats of Haryana Assembly.
Even if BJP is not able to get
the numbers to form the Government on its own, a situation is emerging where it
could go for a post poll alliance with INLD to keep Congress out. INLD, an
erstwhile constituent of NDA, has been sympathetic to BJP and wanted an
alliance even in 2009 Assembly and Lok Sabha polls but was repeatedly spurned by BJP. The Chautalas have been praising Modi for a
long time on every forum available to them. Now with NDA firmly in saddle in New
Delhi , INLD too has expectations as it has remained
out of power for a decade now. They could stitch a post poll alliance and
whoever has more seats, would be the dominant partner in the alliance and would
stake claim for Chief Minister’s post.
Moreover, Shiromani Akali Dal, a
constituent of NDA, has been an ally of INLD for a long time in Haryana and
this has helped them get Sikh votes in the state. SAD is expected to lobby for
inclusion of INLD in NDA as and when a favourable situation emerges in Haryana.
If the outcome remains indecisive and no single party is in a position to form
Government on its own in Haryana, this old chemistry could come to the fore. (June 30, 2014)
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