Lessons of Himachal Pradesh for BJP

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat have given their verdict and members of both the main parties would argue that it is honours shared equally between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. Though the score-line reads 1-1, it is a setback to the BJP as its Mission 2014 has found an obstacle and hit a roadblock in the hill State of Himachal Pradesh.

BJP was widely expected to do well in Gujarat and Narendra Modi has once again proved his political mettle and understanding of the socio-politico-economic milieu of Gujarat. As the result was on expected lines, the euphoria within the BJP camp is somewhat subdued. Moreover, it was the victory of the personality of Modi against whom there was practically a vacuum in state Congress leadership. Gujarat has merely reiterated what the people already knew - that BJP would win and there were no surprises. The third victory of BJP under Modi might have given the party a prime ministerial candidate but it does not necessarily indicate the way political wind is blowing in the rest of the country.

It was in Himachal Pradesh which clearly proved to be a setback for the BJP in the run-up to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Whether the party leaders admit it or not, BJP’s dream to rule New Delhi after the next Lok Sabha elections has received a jolt and Himachal was a wake-up call for the party to redraw its national strategy. Rather than highlighting the local issues, the BJP had heavily banked on the anti-Congress sentiments prevailing at the national level which backfired.

Here was a state election and a classic case where everything was going against the Congress and there was nothing which could have practically helped it except anti-incumbency in the state.  There was country-wide anger against price rise. Increase in the price if diesel in a state where the entire economy is dependent on road transport had affected all sections. Putting a Cap on subsidised LPG cylinders had hit every household. Then, there were serial charges against Congress led central government on corruption - Commonwealth Games, 2G scam, Coalgate scam and others. If that were not enough, there were specific charges against Virbhadra Singh, the chief ministerial candidate of the party on several counts.

If Congress defied all that was going against it and still managed to win the polls, clearly, BJP central leadership will have to do introspection as to what went wrong with their strategy.  The momentum has been lost for the party and now it is almost certain that corruption per se is not going to be an issue in the next parliamentary polls. If it could not become an issue in a developed and literate State like Himachal Pradesh, it is indeed difficult to make an issue out of it in the next elections. At best, it could be one of the planks of the 2014 polls, not “The Issue” on which elections are found and won.

It is a fact that for almost a quarter of a century, no incumbent Government has been repeated in Himachal Pradesh. But this cannot be the excuse of the party for defeat in Himachal Pradesh. In neighbouring Punjab, no party had been repeated for over four decades. But the Akali Dal-BJP did it a few months ago. BJP has done it, not only in Gujarat on several occasions but also twice in both Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh. In Himachal, anti incumbency was a factor not the main factor which decided the results.

In Himachal, while the macro issues which were being raised in the country did not play much role, the micro and state specific issues did play a major role. In the BJP, it was a battle between the old school and the new school of the party which significantly contributed to the defeat. The old school is represented by national vice president Shanta Kumar while the new school is represented by chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal.

While the old school led by Kumar wanted tickets on the basis of emotional reasons, ideological factors, loyalty to an individual, an organisation and a cause, the new school wanted ticket distribution on the basis of winning ability, on the basis of grassroots level assessment, on the basis of the realities existing in each and every constituency. In 15 seats of Kangra, supposed to be the stronghold of Kumar, BJP won only three. All Kumar loyalists lost and the three who got tickets and won were not loyalists of the BJP veteran. They got tickets because it could not have been denied to them due to their own standing in the party. Rebels mushroomed here and practically led to the rout of the party. Had BJP done well in Kangra, it would have been tantalisingly close to the halfway mark.

In Himachal Congress, there is hardly any old school of politics, little or no ideology as the party is an election winning machinery. Virbhadra Singh spends most of his time in Himachal, knows every nook and corner of the State, is aware of every hill and hillock, knows the State like the back of his hand and in every village of the State, he knows somebody or the other personally. So the old principles of loyalty and the new ground realities in the state where elections were held for the first time after delimitation, found a meeting point.

While the macro issues are important, in local assembly polls, the micro issues are significant and contribute to victory or defeat. Wherever BJP focused at the micro level, it won. But it was Virbhadra Singh who is a master of the game at the age of 78 whose micro poll management was unbeatable. The BJP was simply no match to it, divided as it was between the tussle of the old school with the new, between Kumar and Dhumal factions.

Then there was the factor of the Government employees, who form almost 15 per cent of the State population along with their families. In Himachal, there is a popular saying that the employees want more and more from the government. While the Dhumal Government did all they could within the existing resources, they wanted more and this could have been done only by a new Government.

In the hill State, it is practically a two-party system for the last almost four decades. I talked to a few experts in Shimla and they were in agreement that both the BJP and Congress are seen as occupying the centrist stage. The BJP is not seen as right of the Centre nor is the Congress here seen as slightly left of the Centre as is the position elsewhere in the country. They said that the ideological positions in the state have not hardened nor have the RSS or its affiliates been as active as in other northern States. This has ensured that BJP remains a centrist party by and large. So, the people tend to vote one way or the other and change the government every five years as there is nothing much for the people of the State to choose from between the Congress and BJP in terms of ideology. (December 24, 2012) 

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VBS likely to be next CM

Amitabh Shukla / Shimla

With AICC General Secretary Janardan Dwivedi and Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit appointed as central observers for the meeting of Congress Legislative Party (CLP) here on Saturday, it is now almost certain that Virbhadra Singh would be the next Chief Minister of the State.

Both Dwivedi, who is also the head of the Congress media department and Dikshit, the three- time Chief Minister of Delhi, share a good equation with Singh, who single handedly managed to win Himachal Pradesh for the Congress. In fact, Dikshit was the Chairperson of the Screening Committee of the party which selected candidates in Himachal Pradesh in which Singh was practically given a free hand. Sources in the party said that instead of keeping the suspense for a long time, the central leadership of the party has decided to take a decision at the earliest possible and the swearing in ceremony could be held either on the day of Christmas or even a day earlier depending on the new CLP leader.

“What goes in favour of Singh is the TINA (There is no alternative) factor. The victory is being credited to him as it took place at a time when issues were being raised by the Opposition against the Congress at the national level. Moreover, the victory is all the more sweet as it was not exactly expected and neutralized the poor performance in Gujarat to some extent,” said a senior Congress leader from New Delhi. While two dozen of the 36 Congress MLAs are loyal to Singh, his rivals in the party do not enjoy any such support base. A section of the Congress leaders pitched in the name of Union Minister Anand Sharma. However, what goes against Sharma is the fact that he was not involved in the process of Assembly Election at any stage and he could be seen as an imposition from above, something which won’t be acceptable to the majority of the Congress MLAs. Moreover, Sharma has never been in electoral politics of the State.

Another contender Vidya Stokes is 84-year old and has contested her last election. She is suave and keeps a low profile. Over a period of time, she has limited herself to her constituency Theog and is not conversant with the grassroots politics of the State, in which Singh is an expert. Given the fact that Congress has a simple majority, just crossing the halfway mark, it would require a “political manager” to keep any trouble at bay. Stokes might not be able to match that yardstick. Former PCC President Kaul Singh Thakur does not have the kind of stature required for the top job while GS Balli and Asha Kumari too is no match to Virbhadra Singh at this point of time. All these detractors of Singh owe their allegiance to Anand Sharma. Singh’s detractors point out to the charges framed against him in a local court here which led to his resignation from the Union Cabinet in June this year. “BJP conspired and framed me falsely. The witness is also not there,” Singh said, brushing aside the charges against him.

Singh was handed over the job of President of Himachal Congress, practically on the eve of the polls indicating that he was the main war horse of the party and it trusted him to win Himachal Pradesh. In addition, he was given a ticket to contest the Assembly Election from Shimla (Rural), something unheard of in Congress as no sitting MP is given party ticket to contest assembly polls. Singh is the sitting MP from Mandi. The indications are clear that he would be the next leader of the CLP and the chief minister for a record sixth time, a feat unparalleled in Congress politics.  (December 22, 2012) 

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Was it a self goal by the BJP in Himachal?

Amitabh Shukla / Shimla

A day after Bharatiya Janata Party lost the Himachal Pradesh Assembly election a serious introspection has begun in the party as to what went wrong in the state which the party could have won. Still to come out of the shock of the defeat, party leaders said that more than the Congress, it was the internal dynamics of BJP and poor poll management which led to the defeat.

The initial assessment of a section of the party suggests that giving free hand to veteran party president Shanta Kumar in Kangra led to a rout as the BJP managed to win only 3 of the 15 seats in the segment.  "Whoever wins Kangra, rules Shimla" goes the saying in the hill State and this time, it was practically a thorough defeat for the BJP in what is considered as a Shanta Kumar bastion. What came as a shocker to Kumar was the fact that nine candidates chosen by him lost the polls, some of them badly.

Outgoing Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal did not name Kumar but gave ample hints about the reasons for the debacle. "Faulty ticket distribution was a factor for the defeat," Dhumal said, after presiding over the last Cabinet meeting of his government. He said that tickets were allotted in two phases and in the first phase it was 45 tickets for all parts of the State. In the second list, 23 names were announced and most of them were from Kangra. Dhumal said that somehow the message spread that the party was not one on the issue of ticket distribution.

While Dhumal refrained from directly attacking Kumar, some other BJP leaders did so directly. "He is no longer in active politics. He has also lost touch with the ground realities. Blind faith of the party in his vote catching ability in Kangra was the main reason for the defeat," a senior leader said on the condition of anonymity. While both Congress and BJP were equally matched in rest of the state in this election, except perhaps Shimla which is a Congress bastion, in Kangra BJP was wiped out in the home turf of Kumar. On the other hand, in Hamirpur, the home-turf of Dhumal, the BJP did reasonably well. 

In the run up to the polls when factionalism was intense between the Dhumal and Kumar factions, Dhumal bought peace with Kumar. Sources said that broadly Dhumal agreed not to interfere in ticket distribution in Kangra and Kumar agreed not to do that in the rest of the state. "Both of them bought artificial peace and the result was disastrous," said a BJP leader here.  While BJP managed a respectable 26 seats, three of its rebels who were denied tickets too won. Moreover, Maheshwar Singh who floated thee Himachal Lokhit Party won from Kullu taking the figures of BJP rebels to four. In addition, there were five other constituencies where the votes of the BJP candidate and its rebel was more than the Congress candidate who won the polls. Party leaders said that this clearly suggests that the party could have formed its government in the state. "It was a self goal. Congress did not defeat us. The win ability of the candidates was ignored," said another party leader, who are now in the introspection mode and will submit a detailed report to the central leadership. BJP leaders here say that after the resounding defeat in Kangra, Kumar may well opt out of even recommending the names of loyalists for party tickets. He himself refused to comment on the issue.

"We will analyse the causes of the defeat in details later," said Dhumal. However, some party leaders have already trained their guns at Kumar and identified him as one of the causes. "Success has many claimants, defeat has none," said another BJP leader, sympathetic to Kumar, stressing that victory and defeat are part and parcel of electoral system. But the younger lots in the party are not ready to buy this argument. (December 22, 2012)

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‘Raja Saheb’ set to be crowned again

Amitabh Shukla / Shimla

Virbhadra Singh, popularly known as Raja Saheb in the State, is set to be Chief Minister of Himachal Pradesh for the sixth time — a feat which has few parallels in Indian politics.

The 78-year-old politician, who has been in the Congress for over five decades, is the architect of the Congress victory as his arrival as Pradesh Congress Committee president barely a few weeks before the polls, not only enthused the party workers but also made them believe that they can successfully challenge the BJP.

Singh did not hide his chief ministerial aspirations. “I was sent by our president Sonia Gandhi to the State with the message that Himachal Pradesh had to be won. I have done this with the help of the people of the State and the party workers. The desire of the people of the State is supreme. Our party president never overlooks aspirations of the people,” he said, clearly hinting that he should be made the Chief Minister.

The Raja of Bushar, a small principality, however, hastened to add, “I am a disciplined soldier of the Congress and bound by the discipline of the party. I will do what the high command says.” He has already listed his priorities as to what he would do once he becomes the Chief Minister.

Singh had to resign from the Union Cabinet in June-end, just a few months before the Assembly election for the State was announced due to framing of charges against him in a corruption case, the complainant of which was Major Vijay Singh Mankotia. “They (BJP) brought false cases against me. They conspired against me and brought the so-called CD case... They misused Government machinery and the police. People of the State have answered them,” an elated Singh said after his victory.

After Kaul Singh Thakur was removed as PCC president and Singh brought in, he drew a strategy in a short period at his disposal which included winning over his critics and rivals within the party. He brought in Major Mankotia and gave a ticket to him even though he was a complainant in the CD case which led to framing of charges against him. The message was loud and clear — victory was paramount not personal likes and dislikes. Vidya Stokes, another rival in the party, too came out in support of the Raja and so did GS Balli. All prominent Congress leaders won over, Singh got his act together and ensured that his loyalists, most of them winning candidates, got a lion's share in ticket distribution exercise.

“He knows the State like the back of his hand — every village, every hillock and every area where there is habitation,” one of his supporters said at the crowded Congress office here when asked about the way Singh motivated the party workers and the cadres. The micro-level poll management of the five-time Chief Minister, considering all equations at the ground level, helped the party surmount the obstacles, another party leader said.

A meeting of the Congress Legislature Party is expected to meet in a day or two which will take a call on the new leader. Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde will be the central observer. As Virbhadra Singh single handedly won the state for the Congress, it is expected that the party High Command will anoint him as the CLP leader and Chief Minister.

"It is a case where the victory can be safely attributed to one person - Virbhadra Singh. Whatever case he is facing is extremely weak and the main witness has retracted. There is no alternative to him in the state," a senior party leader said from New Delhi. Moreover, no claimant for the post has emerged in the Congress so far, indicating that even his rivals within the party admit that his contribution in the victory was immense and needs to be acknowledged. (December 21, 2012) 

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Rebels fell Dhumal in HP, anti-incumbency takes toll

Amitabh Shukla / Shimla

Himachal Pradesh lived up to its electoral tradition of voting out the incumbent Government as the Congress rode on anti-incumbency sentiments and wrested power from the Bharatiya Janata Party.

Inability to project its achievements and failure to make good governance an election issue, factionalism, faulty ticket selection and over a dozen rebels ensured that the ruling party was defeated.

Congress benefitted from the micro-level poll management of the five-time Chief Minister of the State, Virbhadra Singh, even though there was nothing in favour of the party at the macro level.

The party put up a united face, putting their factional fight behind and won 36 of the 68 seats in the hill State. While the BJP got only 26, six of the seats went to Independents and other parties.

The Opposition of BJP against FDI in retail did not go well with the voters in the apple belt of the State, many of whom felt that this would benefit the fruit growers. Not surprisingly, Horticulture Minister Narinder Bragta lost Jubbal Kotkhai, in the heart of the apple belt of the State, though he brought in several schemes for the horticulturists.

Even the increase in the prices of diesel, putting a cap on subsidised LPG cylinders and the promise of the BJP to provide induction heaters to the voters had few takers in the State.

The charges of corruption against Congress leaders at the Centre and against Virbhadra Singh in the State had few takers as Singh himself won by a huge margin. Mega scams like 2G, Coalgate, etc hardly had any impact in the State which has a high literacy rate.

Credited as the architect of the Congress victory, the 78-year-old Singh is expected to be the next Chief Minister of the State after a meeting of the Congress Legislature Party by the end of this week despite being chargesheeted in a corruption case which led to his resignation from the Union Cabinet six months ago. Of the 36 party MLAs, 28 are his supporters and this could settle the issue in his favour.

“Congress president Sonia Gandhi sent me to the State with a purpose to defeat the BJP. We have done that,” he said. Asked whether he would be the Chief Minister of the State, Singh indicated in the affirmative.

“Our party president never overlooks the wishes of the people,” he said, hinting that the wish of the people was to see him as the Chief Minister for the sixth time. For record, Singh said the victory of the Congress was a resounding endorsement of the flagship programmes of the Congress-led UPA Government at the Centre.

A dejected Prem Kumar Dhumal said the party would analyse the reasons for defeat. The party’s figure was down to 26 from 41 in the 2007 polls and even the margin of the Chief Minister’s win was reduced in the anti-incumbency sentiments.

“We will introspect where the party lacked in serving the people. The Government had tried to benefit all sections of the society besides accelerating the pace of development in the State,” he said. Party veteran Shanta Kumar refused to go into the reasons of defeat merely saying that in a democracy people’s mandate has to be respected.

BJP leaders said that the State Government failed to publicise the welfare schemes and instead focused on negative campaigning in which targeting Virbhadra Singh consistently boomeranged.

Moreover, instead of the organisation and collective decision making, half a dozen leaders took the decisions without involving the grassroots level workers. In addition, they said that the Government employees and their families, who constitute a large segment of the voters, ditched the ruling party.

Congress leaders and workers, however, said in the battle of personalities, the aggressive Virbhadra Singh with a royal lineage defeated the mild leader Prem Kumar Dhumal who hails from the middle class.

“The royalty has won, Virbhadra has won,” remarked a Congress leader at the State party headquarters. (December 21, 2012) 

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Independents may hold the key in Himachal Pradesh

Himachal Pradesh is waiting with bated breath for the Assembly results, widely expected to be a cliffhanger as the exit polls have indicated.

 Half a dozen Independents and some candidates of smaller parties, who are expected to do well, are having a time out in the sun, being wooed by both the Congress and the BJP.

 Both the parties have taken the exit polls and before that their own internal surveys rather seriously and have identified half a dozen candidates with the potential of winning the polls and trying to win them over. Even the top leaders of both the parties admit that the situation would be similar to the neighbouring Uttarakhand early this year where a seat or two would decide the winner”.

 Nothing went right for the Congress throughout the campaign due to a series of corruption charges against PCC President Virbhadra Singh and his resignation from the Union Cabinet. The party brought in Singh, popularly known as Raja in the hill state, a few weeks before the polls and that too after he was forced to quit the Manmohan Singh Cabinet as a local court here had framed charges against him. But the astute politician he is, Singh got his act together, managed to win over his arch enemies like Major Vijay Singh Mankotia, Vidya Stokes and to some extent H S Balli. To his credit, Singh brought the Congress in the race from practically a difficult situation by energizing the party cadres and making them believe that the party was in a position to challenge the ruling BJP.

 BJP had a relatively easy time during electioneering as there was nothing much against the party except perhaps anti-incumbency of five years and the baggage of a tradition where the ruling party in the state loses every five years. The internal contradictions of the Congress helped the campaign of the party as it effectively milked the issue of corruption - both at the national level and also the specific charges against Singh. Congress tried to target Dhumal and his son Anurag Thakur on some policies of the state government but it didn’t click with the voters. The increase in the prices of diesel and putting a cap on subsidized LPG cylinders further helped the cause of the BJP.

 Poll promise of providing induction heaters to the voters caught the attention as it was timely. Coming together of Dhumal and party veteran Shanta Kumar made the selection of candidates easier without much factionalism, making the prospects of “Mission Repeat” quite bright.

 At the macro level, BJP seems to be in a good position to come back to power as there is nothing much against it while Congress was burdened with the baggage of the central government as well as issues pertaining to the state unit. Nevertheless, at the micro level, a host of factors are involved and these could tilt the scale one way or the other.

 It was here that Virbhadra Singh has played his cards deftly. He was given almost complete say in the selection of the candidates and ensured that his loyalists made it to the list. Given the caste angle and regionalism in several constituencies, he ensured that the right balance was done. In some constituencies, Singh got his loyalists to contest the polls only to ensure the chances of defeat of the BJP candidate. As constituencies are small, two-three villages make a difference in the final outcome. Over half a decade in politics, helped Singh decipher the ground realities.

 “Poll management of the Congress was excellent. This was perhaps the USP of the party,” admitted a BJP leader here. He said that due to the poll management, Congress managed to get in the race which seemed extremely difficult at one point of time. 

 More than Gujarat, the results of Himachal Pradesh would indicate which way the political wind is blowing in the country. It will also point out whether corruption is a poll issue or not and would be a sort of referendum on the economic policies of the central government -FDI in retail, hike in diesel prices and putting a cap on subsidised LPG cylinders.

 If Congress wins, it could continue with its so called economic reforms, if the BJP wins, it would give momentum to the campaign of the party in the run-up to the 2014 polls. (December 19, 2012) 

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The never ending saga of Quota Politics

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Politics of quota has for long brought in social turmoil and unrest. The last century was witness to fissures within the Indian society and intense turmoil so much so that we thought that Other Backward Class politics would be over with a new millennium.

We thought that with the implementation of the Mandal Commission recommendations first in Government jobs by VP Singh and then in educational institutions by Arjun Singh, there would no longer be any politicking on the issue and it has been settled. As it turns out, this is not the case.

All of a sudden, the Congress Government in Haryana has pulled out a rabbit out of its hat and recommended reservation for the dominant community of the state — Jats.  I don’t know how many Jats in the State would feel happy if they are called backward in the State or elsewhere as they control agriculture, land holding and the politics of Haryana like no community does. They are the dominant caste of the State as per the definition of noted sociologist MN Srinivas and traditionally the rural society has revolved around the castes which control land holding and in Haryana Jats clearly occupy that position.

Whatever criteria you adopt, whichever agency you rope in for a survey and however hard you try, I simply can’t understand how Jats could be termed backward in Haryana. If you have already taken a decision this way or that way, you can always invent a convenient logic for that. This is what precisely happened with the Haryana Backward Classes Commission which recommended that Jats are indeed backward and need the benefits of reservation to come to par with other communities.

Leave apart the Commission, even the Haryana Cabinet showed a knee jerk reaction, quickly jumped at a conclusion and decided to accept the recommendations of the commission the very day it was submitted to the state government. The next day, the Chief Secretary of the State writes to the Central Government asking for reservations for Jats, Jat Sikhs, Rors, Bishnois and Tyagis. Everything was fast forwarded.

My problem is not with reservation per se. You need affirmative action in a country like India where historically caste has always been crucial to the social identity of an individual and will continue to be so, at least in the rural areas. But in this age and era, more than reservations, you need expansion of educational institutions and empowerment. In any case, when Government jobs are shrinking and private sector expanding, reservation is of little use. In educational institutions, gradually the private ones are acquiring a prominent position and a few years down the line, top institutes would be in the private sector. So, reservation is not going to help any community in this era, more so in the next decade or so. You need other modes of affirmative action.

The problem lies in milking the emotional issue for political ends. This is what VP Singh did in 1989 when he removed the dust from the Mandal Commission report which was lying in some deserted shelves of South Block to pre-empt Devi Lal, also from Haryana, to challenge his position as the Prime Minister. VP Singh never believed in OBC empowerment, nor did he take any policy decision favouring the OBCs all his life in various positions he held like the Finance Minister or the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. He remembered the report only when his position was challenged after becoming the Prime Minister of the country.

Now when the Bhupinder Singh Hooda Government faces a challenge from the Khap leaders of the Jat community and also other community leaders, it has all of a sudden decided to go ahead with the recommendations of the Commission. Several Khap leaders have decided to march to Delhi and block the national Capital from four sides of the state demanding reservation. The decision of the Hooda Government is simply to placate this section and the reason is not far to seek — it is vote bank politics. If the essential supplies in Delhi get blocked even for a day or two, it would affect the standing of Hooda in the eyes of the Congress high command. Obviously, he would not like that to happen.

So, what do you come out with? You take a decision to increase quota to 57 per cent. As the State Government has no authority on the issue, you lob the ball in the court of the Centre. Everyone knows that the upper limit of quota has been set at 50 per cent by the Supreme Court and the decision cannot be implemented unless a Constitutional amendment is brought about. You can always argue that you have done all you could and there was nothing more to do as the issue is in the domain of the Centre.

Haryana Government has to realise that the issue is not as simple as it thinks it to be. It has let the genie out of the bag and no one for sure knows when it will go back. Already, the Jat community in the State has been vertically divided — pro Congress sections backing the Government while the anti-Congress section up in arms. What if the agitation turns violent again and threatens the law and order situation of the State.

Some important Khap leaders have demanded that they need reservation but it should be within the ambit of 27 per cent which is already in place in Government jobs and in educational institutions. They have brushed aside the recommendations of the Haryana Government which asks for an additional 10 per cent saying this was impossible given the limitations imposed by the Supreme Court and improbability of the Central Government moving a Constitutional amendment bill which could also be subject to judicial scrutiny.

Now, those castes which are already within the ambit of 27 per cent as per the recommendations of the Mandal Commission are feeling the pinch and could turn violent if more communities, particularly a dominant community like the Jats, are included in this. It is natural for them to feel offended if this was done as it would snatch away quotas from them.  So, Haryana practically sits on a caste tinder box just because of the hurry to recommend reservation for the Jats.

If a lollipop to the Jat community was not enough, the Haryana Backward Classes Commission wants to give additional reservation to Brahmins and others based on economic status. Well, there has to be some limit to populism. Can someone tell the Commission? You can’t go on and on providing reservations to everyone under the sun.

So a Pandora’s Box has been practically opened on an emotional issue. If you do not learn the lessons of history, you are condemned to repeat it. (December 17, 2012) 

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Prime Minister, Punjab and the Akali Dal

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Shiromani Akali Dal and the Congress have a hate-hate relationship. They have never ever been on the same page in the last several decades and both are known to “invent logic” to counter each other.  This verbal slugfest sometimes assumes the proportion of outright abuse and a blow below the belt.

You name Congress President Sonia Gandhi and party General Secretary Rahul Gandhi and some of the Akalis would start using a language, which at the outset is un-parliamentary. Talk to the Congress leaders of Punjab and bring the topic of Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal and his son and Deputy chief minister Sukhbir Badal, you will perhaps get a similar response. As Punjab practically has a two-party system with the battlelines clearly drawn between the Akalis and the Congress, expression of the hate-hate relationship perhaps makes sense to cement their existing vote-base and attract new ones.

But there is one Congressman whom the Akalis revere, publicly or in private. They will take his name with respect and always add adjectives to it. It is Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Ironically, while the Congress leaders of the state hardly use the name of Manmohan Singh either electorally, in election campaign or otherwise, the Akalis practically project him as “one of them,” and as the “son of soil” who has made it big. They see him as Sikh who has made the community proud by becoming the first Prime Minister from the community, someone who is a reference point in the state when the talk veers on Punjabis who have excelled in various fields worldwide.

When the Prime Minister was in Ludhiana for the Golden Jubilee convocation of Punjab Agricultural University last week, chief minister Badal described him as the “most distinguished economist of the world”. The remarks came soon after the same distinguished economist piloted the proposal of FDI in retail, first in the Cabinet and then got it passed in both Houses of Parliament, a move vehemently opposed by the Akalis along with their allies, BJP.

Badal glorifying the Prime Minister was not because he was a guest in Punjab and it is a custom to extol the virtues of a guest. It was simply because the Akalis know that it is politically correct to do so. The septuagenarian Badal went ahead and told the gathering how the Prime Minister has always solved the problems of Punjab and how the people of the state are indebted to him.

Even as Badal was praising the Prime Minister, the cadres of both the parties were practically fighting a pitched battle outside for taking credit for the ambulance service in the state. While the Congress cadres pasted the pictures of the PM on the ambulance to take credit of the scheme, the authorities retaliated by slapping cases under the Defacement Act against the Congress workers. The Akali government in Punjab had succeeded in taking credit for the scheme by using the picture of Badal on the ambulances and it paid rich electoral dividends in the last assembly polls when the ruling party returned to power for the second time in a row.

Ironically, Congress has practically disowned Manmohan Singh in Punjab and refused to accept him as a mascot who can win elections for them. In the February Assembly elections, Singh hardly campaigned in the state and in Amritsar, Congress had to take the services of noted singer Gurdas Mann to pull in the crowd for the rally of the Prime Minister as no one in the city knew that he was coming.

When an AICC Observer met me when campaigning for the polls was going, I told him that in a close contest, you project a mascot and get the Prime Minister to address at least a dozen rallies in the state. Tell the voters in Punjab how much the party cares about the Punjabis and there is no better person to do that than the Prime Minister himself. The Observer, at best, could have written a report and sent it to his boss. The party might not have given it any weightage nor had anyone the guts to ask the Prime Minister to get involved in party work. 

Perhaps Congress wants to use the services of Singh administratively as the Prime Minister and not politically. Perhaps Singh is reluctant to campaign in elections and fight them as he has assiduously built the image of an intellectual, an economist and a bureaucrat who is into politics by accident. In any case, Punjab is the only state where he actually matters to some extent and can get a few votes for the party provided he specifically asks for it. But even Punjab Congress was perhaps skeptic about it.

But Akali Dal is not. It invited Singh for the inauguration of the Khalsa Heritage Memorial at Anandpur Sahib just before the polls were announced. The Akalis even claimed that they have got in principle approval of the Prime Minister. It was then that Punjab Congress President Capt Amarinder Singh intervened and appealed to him not to visit the state as it would give mileage to the rivals. The Akalis know the importance of a Manmohan Singh for Punjab, Congerss perhaps doesn’t.

Badal writes letters to the Prime Minister on the drop of a hat, on every topic under the sun, the last one was a few days back when he wanted the intervention of the Prime Minister to take up the issue of a Hindu temple allegedly demolished in Karachi, Pakistan. The chief minister tries to meet Singh once every month if he gets an appointment on some issue concerning the state or with one demand or the other. Leaders of Punjab Congress never do that. They never sought to encash the fact that a Sikh is the Prime Minister and this could pay electoral dividends to them.

In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, Congress managed to win 8 of the 13 seats in Punjab, some of them were undoubtedly due to the fact that Manmohan Singh was the Prime Minister. Now, when 2014 polls are less than one and a half years away, Congress has practically nothing to do with him. The party would be living in a fool’s paradise if it hopes that it would manage to repeat the impressive performance of last time. Since then, the Akali-BJP alliance have consolidated their support base and returned to power again while the Congress has practically disowned Manmohan Singh as a vote-catcher in the state. (10.12.2012) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/114584-prime-minister-punjab-and-the-akali-dal.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/114569-prime-ministerpunjab-and-the-akali-dal.html

Battle royale in Gujarat: Stakes high for Congress and BJP

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

After Himachal Pradesh, the battlefield has now shifted to Gujarat, making it a do or die election for both Congress and the BJP. After practically giving a walkover to BJP for almost four years and ten months, Congress is striving hard in the last few meters of the marathon to touch the tape before its rival.

I will tell you why Gujarat is important for both the parties. If BJP loses the state, it practically loses any hope it has been nursing all these months and years to come to power at the Centre in the 2014 elections for the Lok Sabha. It is so crucial for BJP. Again, for the Congress, a victory would practically ensure third consecutive term for the UPA. If Congress manages to snatch Gujarat from the firm grip of the BJP, it would send a powerful political message to the entire country and the party would be assured that the momentum in indeed in its favour.

Congress can still wriggle out of the situation, even if it loses the polls insisting that the voters are polarized. It can always invent one or more reasons for its defeat. But for the BJP, there cannot be any excuse and there is no scope for any margin of error. It has to win the polls come what may or lose its relevance ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.

The pre poll surveys have predicted a comfortable victory for BJP without giving even a semblance of hope for the Congress. But we all know that a lot of pre poll surveys and even the exit polls have been off the mark in several elections and at best these could be broad indicators of the public opinion, something on which none of the parties can bank on.

If you ask anyone, when Congress was in power in Gujarat the last time, people will have to scratch their brains to find the answer. It was way back in the mid 1990s. As the country and obviously Gujarat saw dismantling of the Inspector Raj, license-quota regime and economic liberalization, BJP came to power in the state and ever since it has retained its hold. This period coincided with tremendous boost to Gujarat economy. The state reaped maximum benefits of economic liberalization and somehow the people of the state associate the BJP with the progress the state has made since 1995 when BJP first came to power. Remember, making money and being proud of it is a serious business in Gujarat. Those who are already in the big league and thousands and lakhs of others who are trying to be there, have developed a notion that BJP would help their efforts. 

Then came the cocktail of economic prosperity and rising aspiration in globalised economy with religious polarization post Godhra. BJP has been winning rather impressively all these years post the riots. In the 2007 elections, the maut ke saudagar statement of Congress President Sonia Gandhi polarized the voters once again and Narendra Modi won without even trying to polarize the voters. But this time, Congress has been extremely careful not to raise any issue or give statements which polarize the voters again on communal lines and benefit BJP. With two weeks to go for the polls, the issues are economic prosperity or the lack of it rather than sentimental ones. This is precisely the issue on which elections should be fought along with the agenda and plan of the respective contestants for the next five years.

For the Congress, the proposed move of direct cash transfer to the beneficiaries would be put to electoral test for the first time. Last time, Congress successfully sold NAREGA and loan waiver to the farmers in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. In 2014, its trump card could well be direct cash transfer. Though Gujarat is prosperous and the number of BPL families are quite less as compared to other parts of the country, but the voting pattern in the poorer areas and also the urban slums would definitely indicate whether the issue has clicked with the voters or not.

But nationally, there are too many things going against the Congress. Voter fatigue, born out of anti-incumbency of two terms, series of allegations dogging the UPA II, beginning from Commonwealth Games and continuing since then with the latest being the Coalgate and a lot of issues which could be enumerated later in details. These national issues too would have a bearing on Gujarat polls.

Narendra Modi too faces voter fatigue and anti-incumbency like the Congress faces in the Centre. But the problem is that the Congress has failed to project anyone as a counter to Modi’s larger than life persona.

So when Modi wanted Congress to declare its chief ministerial candidate and propped up the name of Ahmed Patel, the reclusive but all powerful Political Secretary to the Congress President, he played to his strength. In the battle of personalities, there is no one in front of Modi – the PCC chief of the state Arjun Modhwadia or the CLP leader Shaktisinh Govil do not have the kind of persona it requires to take him on in the battle of personalities. It is here that Ahmed Patel fits the bill.

He may not be in the limelight and avoids the media but everyone in Gujarat knows that Patel is practically the Number 4 in Congress after the Congress President, her son and General Secretary Rahul Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. If he is indeed projected as the chief ministerial candidate of the party against Modi, it would help the party’s cause as the people of the state would readily believe that Patel can get anything from the central government for the state.

He could be a match for Modi. But then, Patel has all the powers in the party hierarchy which a leader would aspire for and why would he risk all that for the post of chief minister which in any case is extremely difficult to come by. A section of the Congress believe that perhaps Modi wants to again polarize the voters by propping Patel’s name as he happens to be from the minority community and Congress won’t play ball.

But whatever the political maneuvering before the polls, what is certain is that a defeat for BJP would be curtains for it as far as immediate national ambitions are concerned while a defeat for the Congress wouldn’t really point to the things shaping up in the run-up to 2014. (December 3, 2012) 

http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/112926-stakes-high-for-cong-and-bjp.html
http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/112908-stakes-high-for-cong-and-bjp.html

Aam Aadmi becomes a political football

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Arvind Kejriwal has finally named his political outfit Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), inviting the wrath of the Congress which claims that an attempt was being made to take away the plank of the grand old party of Indian politics.

What surprises me the most is the fear of the Congress vis a vis the AAP and the strong reaction emanating from its camp. If a 127-year old party reacts the way it is doing against a party which has been just formed and never contested an election, then clearly there is some problem somewhere.

Congress has been ridiculing Anna Hazare, Kejriwal and Baba Ramdev from the very beginning, realising well that the rising and aspiring middle class could support them and this obviously would hurt it in electoral terms. Congress is not bothered about the entrenched elite who would never even think of extending support to Kejriwal and company as their interests are safe with the Congress and also with the BJP. The voters in the rural areas too would not have anything to with a new political party in the beginning simply because they will wait and watch for a while and not cast vote in a hurry. It is only the middle class in the cities which is impatient, wants to end corruption and could experiment with new political parties.

When Congress leader and Union Minister Manish Tewari claimed that the party has been with the Aam Aadmi ever since its formation in 1885, it was time for me to brush up my understanding of history. Founded by the elite of the country then, Congress remained entirely elitist till Mahatma Gandhi came in the picture. It was Gandhi who took the party to the Aam Aadmi when he came back from South Africa in 1915. He had to wait for a few years till the party truly became a mass movement of the Aam Aadmi who wanted to end British imperialism.

The moment the entrenched elite - lawyers, industrialists, big landholders and professionals realized that Gandhi was driving the imagination of the sub-continent, they came out in open support. The strength of Gandhi lay in his immense appeal to the main section of the aam aadmi then- farmers, both landless and with little landholding. There was only a small section of middle class then in the cities and it was not the Aam Aadmi we know now. In any case, the tiny middle class joined the national movement only when they became sure that British would leave the country.

In brief, this is my understanding of history and the association of the aam aadmi with the Congress. The party became a mass movement not through electoral politics but by taking up the issues of Aam Aadmi and that was to get rid of British imperialism. That perhaps was the reason why Gandhi wanted Congress to be disbanded after 1947-a suggestion scoffed at by the elite who were sniffing power. As there were hardly any political parties then and the memory of the people associating Congress with the freedom struggle was strong, it continued in power without interruption till 1977 at the Centre.

The problem arises now when an upstart, as Congress would like to believe, tries to take the plank assiduously built over decades. More so, when the Congress believes that  the AAP could hit it in places like Delhi which goes to polls next year and the electorate comprises of an overwhelming majority of the middle class.

Officially, Congress maintains that there are 1453 political parties registered with the Election Commission of India and another addition would hardly make a difference. “More the merrier…” says a Congress spokesperson. But it knows that AAP could be one of the 1453 political parties but is one untested opposition whose electoral strength it does not know. Anna, Baba Ramdev and Kejriwal have contributed immensely in making the Congress unpopular in the last two years and the party leaders know it well.

Reactions coming from the Congress on AAP clearly suggest that the party does not think that it is one of the 1453 odd parties in the country. The ruling party never reacts to what happens in the other smaller parties registered with the EC. The simple fact that Congress reacts on anything what Kejriwal says or does, indicates that the party thinks that AAP could indeed be a worthy opponent.

To be realistic, the AAP cannot be a political threat to any party to begin with.  It takes years and decades to actually become a threat and build trust with the people. Besides you need an issue which changes national discourse and strengthens a particular party. For instance, the Ram Janambhoomi movement brought the BJP as a force to reckon with while the Mandal politics gave rise to several political parties in the Hindi heartland.

Even though,  AAP would find it extremely difficult to win a Lok Sabha seat on the issues of corruption or Jan Lok Pal, it could damage Congress and help its opponents. As the Congress plank of Aaam Aadmi was built without a foundation, it knows that this can slip away in no time. This perhaps is the real fear of the 127-year old party.

After the formation of AAP, I really find it intriguing to see Congress leaders, big and small, claiming copyright over the word Aam Aadmi. Amongst the top leaders of the party, the last member of the Nehru-Gandhi family who practically worked for a living was Motilal Nehru, over 85 years ago. His son, Jawaharlal Nehru never worked for a living nor his daughter Indira Gandhi and her son Sanjay Gandhi. Rajiv Gandhi worked as a pilot for a while and Rahul Gandhi in some company in London for a couple of years, the details of which are difficult to find. Party President Sonia Gandhi remained a housewife all the years till the Congress discovered that she was the only leader to fill the slot left vacant by Rajiv Gandhi.  To call them common man or the Aam Aadmi would indeed be trivilalising the word.

Not only the Gandhi family, if one analyses the background of Congress MPs and ministers, one would find that most of them come from political families and there is hardly an Aam Aadmi, who has made it as an MP or a minister through sheer hard work without having a father, mother, uncle or grandfather in an influential position in the party in the past.

It is here that Congress should bolster its image of a party of the Aam Aadmi rather than fighting on the name of a new political party. People would be the arbiter and decide who has the copyright on Aam Aadmi, not the Congress or t he AAP. (November 26, 2012)

 http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/111299-aam-aadmi-becomes-a-political-football-.html

http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/111326-aam-aadmi-becomes-a-political-football.html

Battleground 2014: Regional parties flex muscles

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

With the announcement of candidates by Samajwadi Party for the Lok Sabha elections of 2014, the ball has been set rolling, triggering speculations that the polls could be advanced. Given the fact that the ruling Congress is on a weak footing and is still battling several charges hurled against it at regular intervals throughout its second innings at the Centre, it is extremely unlikely that the party would go for a snap poll.

But what has come as a surprise, 18 months before the polls, is the positioning of various regional parties in several states and their attempt to reinvent themselves in the run up to the elections. Regional parties have realised that they could perhaps be the kingmakers and are making appropriate strategy anticipating a fluid political situation after the general elections. For some of these regional parties, neither UPA is untouchable nor the NDA. In fact, a few have gone for a flexible ideological stand which could make them fit either in the NDA, UPA or the so called Third Front, a conglomeration of regional parties, if it indeed comes into existence before the polls.

Take for instance the ruling Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. It is practically in the UPA, extending outside support to the ruling coalition. The party is now aspiring to lead the Third Front with its chief Mulayam Singh Yadav looking at the chair presently occupied by Manmohan Singh. That perhaps explains the eagerness of the regional outfit to come out with its list of candidates so early. It wants to encash the victory in UP and wants to keep the winning momentum going.

Besides SP, the Bahujan Samaj Party too is extending support to the UPA but can easily absorb itself in Third Front, if at all it comes into existence. For the BSP, even Bharatiya Janata Party is not a pariah as it has shared power with it in UP in the past. So practically, BSP could sail in three boats – UPA, NDA and Third Front.

In neighbouring Bihar, Nitish Kumar led JD(U) is firmly in saddle. For the last almost eight years, it has consistently scotched speculations that it could switch to the UPA from NDA. Given the kind of caste arithmetic the JD(U)-BJP alliance has stitched in Bihar, it could be extremely difficult for Nitish to ditch the BJP and go for Congress and still enjoy the vote base which he has at this point of time. Being an expert in “social engineering”, Nitish realises this well. But for his arch rival, Lalu Prasad Yadav switching sides would be a breeze. The UPA had shunned him in the last polls and would still do so. Trying to remain relevant in state politics after losing two consecutive assembly polls, Yadav has embarked on a state-wide tour and knows that 2014 would be a make or break for him. If he gets the numbers, he could be welcomed back in UPA if he doesn’t, his political obituary can be written safely.

From Bihar, cross over to West Bengal and you find Mamata Banerjee who is presently neither with the UPA nor the NDA. She can never be with the Third Front as it will invariably have the Left which she hates from the core of her heart. I am surprised why the NDA has not tried to win her over after she left the UPA. Her Trinamool Congress could easily put its legs on two boats of UPA and NDA if the situation warrants after the 2014 results. Banerjee wants to keep up the suspense and is playing her cards deftly. The Left Front in the state has three options – either stay neutral the way it is right now, go with the confederation of the regional parties which could perhaps be led by Mulayam Singh or extend outside support to UPA on the plea of “keeping the communal forces away” if the BJP comes at a sniffing distance of the magic figure, essential to form the government.

Odisha is next in line where Naveen Patnaik has kept both the Congress and the BJP at arms length. In successive elections, Congress was completely decimated in the state but remains the only opposition party worth the name as BJP has little presence in most parts. Patnaik could switch between NDA and Third Front post 2014 if indeed he gets the numbers and they are vital for government formation.

Taking the Coromandel Coast, we now reach Andhra Pradesh where an interesting political battle is likely to take place. Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress is fledging its muscles even as TDP has become irrelevant over a period of time. The Telengana issue too is on the boil. Jagan’s party has the potential to cause severe damage to Congress as the bye-election results have shown. But I suspect that if the Congress and CBI decide to go soft on him (like they did to Mayawati and Mulayam Singh in UP) he would hardly have much grouse in extending outside support to UPA. For that matter, he could also support NDA or the Third Front in lieu of their help in a series of cases registered against him ever since he left Congress.

In Tamil Nadu, there is little to speculate. While one regional party goes with the UPA, the other goes with the NDA. There would be little surprise if AIADMK goes with NDA while the DMK remains with the UPA. But my suspicion is that both the parties would compete with each other to support whoever comes to power post May 2014.

Kerala, Maharashtra and Punjab have a well settled alliance system and it has been going on a similar pattern for the last almost two decades. It is unlikely to change. NCP-Congress alliance versus the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance in Maharashtra and the LDF versus UDF in Kerala are well established. In Punjab, the Akali Dal and BJP have been together for a long time now and after being voted for the second time in a row, would be looking to consolidate.

But the battleground of Haryana could be interesting. While BJP has allied with the Kuldeep Bishnoi led Haryana Janhit Congress to form a non-Jat alliance, a section of the BJP wants that the alliance with Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal be revived. In the 2009 assembly polls, had BJP fought the elections with INLD, Congress could have been wiped out from the state. Striving for political relevance before elections, Chautala is looking to either become the fulcrum of the so called Third Front or get into the NDA fold. It would be interesting to see if both Bishnoi and Chautala can be adjusted in NDA ahead of 2014. It would be a political masterstroke of the BJP if it indeed manages to do that. (November 19, 2012)

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/109584-battleground-2014-regional-parties-flex-muscles.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/109709-battleground-2014-regional-parties-flex-muscles-.html

Congress’ bogey of economic reforms

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

After a Cabinet reshuffle and a brainstorming session called samvad baithak, Congress believes it is battle ready for 2014 even though the next agenda on card is the Assembly election of Gujarat, barely a month from now.

If Congress wins Gujarat then barring any serious political accident, no party can prevent UPA from coming to power at the Centre for the third consecutive term in 2014. The grand old party would be on a roll. On the other hand, even if the ruling BJP is returned to power in the Narendra Modi led State, it cannot be assured of leading a coalition Government of the NDA in New Delhi. BJP, in any case, takes the support of the voters in the State for granted.

The results of Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat would be announced at the same time, in the third week of December. Leave Gujarat, even in Himachal Pradesh, BJP has an edge given the fact that no one is ready to accept the logic of so called economic reforms —hike in the prices of diesel, putting a cap on subsidised LPG cylinders FDI in retail or whatever is there in store for the people. Even die-hard Congress supporters won’t support the Government on LPG cylinders as the entire move looks so illogical from the outset. It cannot bury the charges of corruption simply because it is too big an issue to be brushed under the carpet.

So it appears that the Congress wants the two elections of Himachal and Gujarat to become a referendum on the economic policies of the Centre, sort of laboratory experiment for the party for the future course of action. It wants the voters to forget scams of Commonwealth Games, 2G spectrum, Robert Vadra’s questionable land deals and diverting party funds for National Herald newspaper.  If Congress loses both the States, it can safely abandon the economic reforms, which primarily means removal of subsidies. Politically, both the states don’t matter to the Congress as of now for the simple reason that it hardly has any ambitions in Gujarat which is in the stranglehold of Modi and in Himachal, it can always camouflage its loss by inventing a series of reasons.

I am surprised the way Congress is pushing for the so called economic agenda which in electoral terms are potential disasters. On November 4, it organised a rally in New Delhi not to counter the serial allegations of corruption, wrong doing and irregularities but to support FDI. I don’t think any person would understand the logic of reforms if he is asked to pay around `980 for a LPG cylinder, two and half times the existing rate. What were you doing in the last 8 and half years, people would ask. You could have increased the prices of LPG by `50 every year and this wouldn’t have pinched the pockets of the people the way it would now. But simply, you did not have the guts to do so. Similarly, you turned a blind eye to diesel all these years. You could have increased the prices by `2-3 every year if indeed the oil companies are not passing on their inefficiency to the consumers of LPG and petroleum products.

At the end of the day, all economic policies are aimed to benefit the people and the voters would ask how a particular decision would benefit them. No one would understand the jargons of fiscal deficit, growth rate, subsidies etc unless they see something concrete in front of them helping them get more employment, access to resources and bringing down the rate of inflation. Can you tell a hungry person that he should bear with his hunger as he will get cake and sweets to eat after five years?

Lackluster performance notwithstanding in the last over 8 years, Manmohan Singh is clearly dominating the policy making decision and is influencing the party as well as the Congress president. My suspicion is that the so-called economic reforms would have the same impact as the Indo-US nuclear deal in 2008. Singh staked his government for that deal, the Left withdrew support and we were told that once the deal gets through, there would be power all around for every village, every person. Four years down the line, no one even talks about the deal any more. It has ceased to become an issue at all. No Government or Congress spokesperson ever mentions the thousands of megawatt of power we were supposed to get through nuclear energy. I find both the Indo-US nuclear deal and the economic reforms in the same league — far removed from the issues at the grassroots level politics which helps the party consolidate its base.

Then what could be the reason of the nuclear deal in 2008 and the economic reforms in 2012. The answer perhaps could be diversionary politics, an art which the ruling party has mastered. In 2008, the nuclear deal was not important but getting rid of the Left was. Getting the support of Samajwadi Party and the BSP too was important then as the country was heading for the 2009 elections. The Congress Government at Centre was not bothered about the so-called benefits of the nuclear deal but was certainly interested in realignment of the political forces ahead of the general elections.

A similar situation prevails in 2012 when elections are a year and half away and the government is facing a crisis of credibility, rocked as it has been by a series of allegations, some of which were directed right at the doors of 10 Janpath. You need something to divert the attention of the people. And it was in such a situation that the bogey of economic reforms came handy for the Government and the Congress. The UPA will abandon it the moment the voters forget the mega scams. This is what history suggests. (November 12, 2012)

 http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/108365-congress-bogey-of-economic-reforms.html

http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/108284-congress-bogey-of-economic-reforms.html

Congress finds itself in a quagmire

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

It’s a season of controversies and scams in which those on the top of the pyramid of politics have found themselves in unsavory situation, ruining their immediate political plans. While the Congress was at the receiving end in most of the scandals, BJP too did not get away as the party President himself had to bear the ignominy of a raging controversy involving the finances of his companies.

What has come as a surprise is that for the first time those involved in the scandals are not small time politicians and regional satraps against whom Disproportionate Assets case are registered at random to settle political scores and bully them to submission but those considered the “creamy layer” of Indian politics. Now the so called sacrosanct, who could never have been targeted in the old school of politics, are facing the brunt of the assault given the ease with which information is available in public domain.

The latest to face the music is none other than Congress President Sonia Gandhi and her son and AICC General Secretary Rahul Gandhi who have been accused of getting the finances of the Congress Party  for their company Young Indian. While Subramanian Swamy has for long been considered a loose cannon who could explode anywhere and was known to train guns at the Gandhi family at the slightest pretext without any proof, this time he has done his homework well and brought evidence which the party found difficult to refute.

The knee-jerk reaction – first by the office of Rahul Gandhi and later a battery of  Congress spokespersons, compounded the worst fears of even the Congress supporters. While the office of Rahul threatened to take all action possible under law and denied the allegations of Swamy, the party had a different take on it. It accepted that  money as alleged by Swamy had indeed been given to the company in which Rahul and Sonia have a majority stake and tried to defend the blatant violation of the existing laws governing the political parties of the country. Clearly, the charges of financial irregularities and evasion of taxes had reached the courtyard of 10 Janpath, the residence of the Congress President and 12 Tughlaq Lane, the residence of party General Secretary Rahul Gandhi.

I fail to understand the goof ups made by the oldest party of the country.  If indeed the loan to Young Indian was proper and as per the laws of the land, why didn’t the Congress itself inform about the decision through its mouthpiece “Congress Sandesh” or through one of its spokespersons in the regular party briefing. Why did the party, which claims to be the champion of Right to Information, doing it discreetly when finances of as much as Rs 90 crore was involved. It was not Rs nine or Rs ninety which you give to a beggar on a traffic junction. Don’t the people who trust the party and vote for it in elections, deserve to know what it is doing with the money entrusted to it through donations. 

Had Congress itself disclosed that it is going to revive the newspaper National Herald by giving interest free loans to Young Indian and wants to perpetuate the legacy of Jawahar Lal Nehru, no one would have objected to it. In fact, it would have been the first page news of most newspapers and the lead item in the news channels. The party would have got widespread appreciation for helping out the families of the erstwhile employees of National Herald as Janardan Dwivedi claims now.

But clearly, the party had something to hide. It knew for sure that what it was doing was not allowed as per the existing laws. It chose to be discreet and evasive and is now deliberately going on an overdrive. People expect much more transparency from a party which was founded 127 years ago. Why does the party still believe that in an era of IT revolution when every document can be scanned and brought out in public domain, such a gesture of loaning Rs 90 crore would remain a secret? This is not the 1950s.

Earlier, Robert Vadra, son-in-law of the Congress President found himself in the middle of questionable land deal and unsecured loans indicating quid pro quo. This was the beginning when the credentials of a family member and financial dealings came under scanner. Now when more and more information is reaching public domain, no one knows how much more muck, most of which is going to stick, will flow at the directions of the top bosses.

Assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh were held just at a time when Swamy was through with his allegations and the Congress found itself in a tight spot defending the charges. Many voters, the young ones in particular, would now be wondering when even the conduct of the top leaders is not beyond suspicion, why should they vote for them. Remember, BJP President Nitin Gadkari is also in the eye of storm for financial irregularities. So both the Presidents of the two main parties – Gandhi and Gadkari – face charges the answers of which are hardly convincing.

So whom do you vote for if you go the polling booth and make corruption as the yardstick? Well, the question is difficult to answer. May be the one who is less corrupt and this is extremely subjective.

There is one big difference between Congress and BJP here where the ruling party finds itself in a much weaker position. Gadkari may not be the face of the BJP and can easily be dumped to take care of his business empire if the heat continues and it finds itself at the receiving end. It won’t really affect the core vote bank of the party. But what about the Congress? The entire party owes its existence to the Gandhis and they symbolize the Congress and vice versa. The party cannot do without them. That is an existential dilemma. In the last 65 years since independence, the family members have been the trump cards for the party and continue to be so.

Then, there is another problem in store for the Congress and Rahul Gandhi in particular. He has been looking to play a bigger role in the party for long and refused to join the Manmohan Singh Cabinet. At a time, when he along with the Congress President, was trying to figure out what this bigger role could be, Swamy came out with the expose. Now, it seems that the bigger role of Gandhi would have to wait as the party would like the dust to settle down and bank on the memory of the people that “it is short”. (November 5, 2012) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/106704-congress-finds-itself-in-a-quagmire.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/106719-congress-finds-itself-in-a-quagmire.html