VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
After a Cabinet reshuffle and a
brainstorming session called samvad
baithak, Congress believes it is battle ready for 2014 even though the next
agenda on card is the Assembly election of Gujarat ,
barely a month from now.
If Congress wins Gujarat
then barring any serious political accident, no party can prevent UPA from
coming to power at the Centre for the third consecutive term in 2014. The grand
old party would be on a roll. On the other hand, even if the ruling BJP is
returned to power in the Narendra Modi led State, it cannot be assured of
leading a coalition Government of the NDA in New Delhi .
BJP, in any case, takes the support of the voters in the State for granted.
The results of Himachal Pradesh
and Gujarat would be announced at the same time, in the
third week of December. Leave Gujarat , even in Himachal
Pradesh, BJP has an edge given the fact that no one is ready to accept the
logic of so called economic reforms —hike in the prices of diesel, putting a
cap on subsidised LPG cylinders FDI in retail or whatever is there in store for
the people. Even die-hard Congress supporters won’t support the Government on
LPG cylinders as the entire move looks so illogical from the outset. It cannot
bury the charges of corruption simply because it is too big an issue to be
brushed under the carpet.
So it appears that the Congress
wants the two elections of Himachal and Gujarat to
become a referendum on the economic policies of the Centre, sort of laboratory
experiment for the party for the future course of action. It wants the voters
to forget scams of Commonwealth Games, 2G spectrum, Robert Vadra’s questionable
land deals and diverting party funds for National Herald newspaper. If Congress loses both the States, it can safely
abandon the economic reforms, which primarily means removal of subsidies.
Politically, both the states don’t matter to the Congress as of now for the
simple reason that it hardly has any ambitions in Gujarat
which is in the stranglehold of Modi and in Himachal, it can always camouflage
its loss by inventing a series of reasons.
I am surprised the way Congress
is pushing for the so called economic agenda which in electoral terms are
potential disasters. On November 4, it organised a rally in New
Delhi not to counter the serial allegations of
corruption, wrong doing and irregularities but to support FDI. I don’t think
any person would understand the logic of reforms if he is asked to pay around
`980 for a LPG cylinder, two and half times the existing rate. What were you
doing in the last 8 and half years, people would ask. You could have increased
the prices of LPG by `50 every year and this wouldn’t have pinched the pockets
of the people the way it would now. But simply, you did not have the guts to do
so. Similarly, you turned a blind eye to diesel all these years. You could have
increased the prices by `2-3 every year if indeed the oil companies are not
passing on their inefficiency to the consumers of LPG and petroleum products.
At the end of the day, all
economic policies are aimed to benefit the people and the voters would ask how
a particular decision would benefit them. No one would understand the jargons
of fiscal deficit, growth rate, subsidies etc unless they see something
concrete in front of them helping them get more employment, access to resources
and bringing down the rate of inflation. Can you tell a hungry person that he
should bear with his hunger as he will get cake and sweets to eat after five
years?
Lackluster performance
notwithstanding in the last over 8 years, Manmohan Singh is clearly dominating
the policy making decision and is influencing the party as well as the Congress
president. My suspicion is that the so-called economic reforms would have the
same impact as the Indo-US nuclear deal in 2008. Singh staked his government
for that deal, the Left withdrew support and we were told that once the deal
gets through, there would be power all around for every village, every person.
Four years down the line, no one even talks about the deal any more. It has
ceased to become an issue at all. No Government or Congress spokesperson ever
mentions the thousands of megawatt of power we were supposed to get through
nuclear energy. I find both the Indo-US nuclear deal and the economic reforms
in the same league — far removed from the issues at the grassroots level
politics which helps the party consolidate its base.
Then what could be the reason of
the nuclear deal in 2008 and the economic reforms in 2012. The answer perhaps
could be diversionary politics, an art which the ruling party has mastered. In
2008, the nuclear deal was not important but getting rid of the Left was.
Getting the support of Samajwadi Party and the BSP too was important then as
the country was heading for the 2009 elections. The Congress Government at
Centre was not bothered about the so-called benefits of the nuclear deal but
was certainly interested in realignment of the political forces ahead of the
general elections.
A similar situation prevails in
2012 when elections are a year and half away and the government is facing a
crisis of credibility, rocked as it has been by a series of allegations, some
of which were directed right at the doors of 10 Janpath. You need something to
divert the attention of the people. And it was in such a situation that the
bogey of economic reforms came handy for the Government and the Congress. The
UPA will abandon it the moment the voters forget the mega scams. This is what
history suggests. (November 12, 2012)
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