VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
With the announcement of
candidates by Samajwadi Party for the Lok Sabha elections of 2014, the ball has
been set rolling, triggering speculations that the polls could be advanced. Given
the fact that the ruling Congress is on a weak footing and is still battling
several charges hurled against it at regular intervals throughout its second
innings at the Centre, it is extremely unlikely that the party would go for a
snap poll.
But what has come as a surprise,
18 months before the polls, is the positioning of various regional parties in
several states and their attempt to reinvent themselves in the run up to the
elections. Regional parties have realised that they could perhaps be the
kingmakers and are making appropriate strategy anticipating a fluid political
situation after the general elections. For some of these regional parties,
neither UPA is untouchable nor the NDA. In fact, a few have gone for a flexible
ideological stand which could make them fit either in the NDA, UPA or the so
called Third Front, a conglomeration of regional parties, if it indeed comes
into existence before the polls.
Take for instance the ruling
Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. It is practically in the UPA, extending
outside support to the ruling coalition. The party is now aspiring to lead the
Third Front with its chief Mulayam Singh Yadav looking at the chair presently
occupied by Manmohan Singh. That perhaps explains the eagerness of the regional
outfit to come out with its list of candidates so early. It wants to encash the
victory in UP and wants to keep the winning momentum going.
Besides SP, the Bahujan Samaj
Party too is extending support to the UPA but can easily absorb itself in Third
Front, if at all it comes into existence. For the BSP, even Bharatiya Janata
Party is not a pariah as it has shared power with it in UP in the past. So
practically, BSP could sail in three boats – UPA, NDA and Third Front.
In neighbouring Bihar ,
Nitish Kumar led JD(U) is firmly in saddle. For the last almost eight years, it
has consistently scotched speculations that it could switch to the UPA from
NDA. Given the kind of caste arithmetic the JD(U)-BJP alliance has stitched in
Bihar, it could be extremely difficult for Nitish to ditch the BJP and go for
Congress and still enjoy the vote base which he has at this point of time. Being
an expert in “social engineering”, Nitish realises this well. But for his arch
rival, Lalu Prasad Yadav switching sides would be a breeze. The UPA had shunned
him in the last polls and would still do so. Trying to remain relevant in state
politics after losing two consecutive assembly polls, Yadav has embarked on a
state-wide tour and knows that 2014 would be a make or break for him. If he
gets the numbers, he could be welcomed back in UPA if he doesn’t, his political
obituary can be written safely.
From Bihar ,
cross over to West Bengal and you find Mamata Banerjee
who is presently neither with the UPA nor the NDA. She can never be with the
Third Front as it will invariably have the Left which she hates from the core
of her heart. I am surprised why the NDA has not tried to win her over after
she left the UPA. Her Trinamool Congress could easily put its legs on two boats
of UPA and NDA if the situation warrants after the 2014 results. Banerjee wants
to keep up the suspense and is playing her cards deftly. The Left Front in the
state has three options – either stay neutral the way it is right now, go with
the confederation of the regional parties which could perhaps be led by Mulayam
Singh or extend outside support to UPA on the plea of “keeping the communal
forces away” if the BJP comes at a sniffing distance of the magic figure,
essential to form the government.
Odisha is next in line where
Naveen Patnaik has kept both the Congress and the BJP at arms length. In
successive elections, Congress was completely decimated in the state but remains
the only opposition party worth the name as BJP has little presence in most
parts. Patnaik could switch between NDA and Third Front post 2014 if indeed he
gets the numbers and they are vital for government formation.
Taking the Coromandel
Coast , we now reach Andhra Pradesh where an interesting political
battle is likely to take place. Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress is fledging
its muscles even as TDP has become irrelevant over a period of time. The
Telengana issue too is on the boil. Jagan’s party has the potential to cause severe
damage to Congress as the bye-election results have shown. But I suspect that
if the Congress and CBI decide to go soft on him (like they did to Mayawati and
Mulayam Singh in UP) he would hardly have much grouse in extending outside
support to UPA. For that matter, he could also support NDA or the Third Front
in lieu of their help in a series of cases registered against him ever since he
left Congress.
In Tamil Nadu, there is little to
speculate. While one regional party goes with the UPA, the other goes with the
NDA. There would be little surprise if AIADMK goes with NDA while the DMK
remains with the UPA. But my suspicion is that both the parties would compete
with each other to support whoever comes to power post May 2014.
Kerala, Maharashtra
and Punjab have a well settled alliance system and it
has been going on a similar pattern for the last almost two decades. It is unlikely
to change. NCP-Congress alliance versus the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance in Maharashtra
and the LDF versus UDF in Kerala are well established. In Punjab ,
the Akali Dal and BJP have been together for a long time now and after being
voted for the second time in a row, would be looking to consolidate.
But the battleground of Haryana
could be interesting. While BJP has allied with the Kuldeep Bishnoi led Haryana
Janhit Congress to form a non-Jat alliance, a section of the BJP wants that the
alliance with Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal be revived. In the
2009 assembly polls, had BJP fought the elections with INLD, Congress could
have been wiped out from the state. Striving for political relevance before
elections, Chautala is looking to either become the fulcrum of the so called
Third Front or get into the NDA fold. It would be interesting to see if both
Bishnoi and Chautala can be adjusted in NDA ahead of 2014. It would be a
political masterstroke of the BJP if it indeed manages to do that. (November 19, 2012)
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