At 78, Virbhadra's political innings...

Amitabh Shukla / Shimla/ Chandigarh

The resignation of Virbhadra Singh from the Manmohan Singh Cabinet on corruption charges is set to have a serious ramifications for the Congress in poll bound Himachal Pradesh. Known simply as the “Raja” by his supporters, the five-time chief minister of the state is the only mass leader of the Congress who could give BJP a run for its money in the November polls.

“Now that Singh is out of the Union Cabinet, there is a big question mark on him assuming the leadership mantle in the state. Even if he does so, the BJP will get a punching bag in the run-up to the polls,” a senior state Congress leader said.

But supporters of Singh argue that it is a “big opportunity” for the “Raja”, now a former Union Minister, to stay put in the state and take the BJP head on. “Merely framing charges does not prove anything. People are not going to buy the argument of corruption levelled against him by BJP or Team Anna. He has been in public life for too long a period and his supporters know him inside out,” said one of his camp followers.

Even as various permutations and combinations are being worked out, what is certain is that the exit of Singh from the Union Cabinet will not enhance the chances of his rivals in state politics. Union Minister Anand Sharma, PCC chief Kaul Singh Thakur and former minister G S Balli are considered his rivals but it is unlikely that they would benefit from the slur which Singh faces in a Shimla court now.

But the framing of charges has given enough ammunition to the state BJP and it can keep firing salvos at regular intervals if Singh indeed plays an active role in the election campaign and throws his hat in the ring for being projected as the chief ministerial candidate in the November assembly polls.

When the five-time chief minister organised a show of strength in Shimla to mark his 50 years in public life and also his birthday last week, he clearly indicated that the Congress should consider its policy of not declaring its chief ministerial candidate ahead of the polls. Now that there is a twist in the tale and the courts have intervened, Singh would himself reconsider his assertions given that it could become a major poll issue in the state.

The clout of Singh in state politics stems from his stranglehold on the Thakur dominated areas and constituencies. “He knows, every worker, every leader, every road and every mountain here,” summed up a supporter. Of the 23 legislators of the Congress in HP Assembly, 21 turned up to wish him well on his birthday, clearly knowing that it was a show of strength rather than a simple birthday celebration.

Political observers, however, feel that given the age of Singh, who turned 78 last week, and the framing of charges against him, the political innings of the leader has practically come to an end. “He could be enjoying support amongst the legislators and also in the Thakur dominated areas but corruption charges will have serious electoral implications at a time when elections are just over four months away,” said a Shimla based analyst

As there is a general atmosphere in the country and in Himachal Pradesh against corruption, the timing of the court order rings alarm bells for the veteran leader. Though Singh is targeting the BJP for the timing of the order, there are few takers for the allegations given the fact that the case against him was over two-decade old but still no closure report had been filed and the court prima facie found enough evidence to frame charges against him.  

“Singh has been a fighter and has seen numerous ups and downs. But this time, his age and the charges are against him. It is difficult for him to bounce back unless the charges against him are quashed by a court,” a Congress leader in Shimla admitted.

The road ahead of Singh is lonely, quipped another party leader. (June 27, 2012) 

http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/76051-at-78-his-political-innings-all-but-over-say-detractors.html

Team Anna & TC in political battlefield of Himachal

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA 

 No one had heard of Trinamool Congress having any political significance in north India till about a fortnight back when the party started its operations in the region. It was like launching a consumer product for consumption in the mass market.

All the ingredients of a successful corporate launch were there when Trinamool set its foot in Chandigarh, the base for its operations in north India, comprising of Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and the Union Territory. High decibel advertisement blitzkrieg, setting up of an office with corporate looks, series of press conferences to announce the arrival on the political firmament, rallies to make people aware about the party and a couple of defections to the party so that it has a few recognizable names other than KD Singh, the face behind the launch.

Singh is an Industrialist and an MP from Jharkhand. The state has become infamous in recent years for sending corporate honchos without any parties to the Upper House and now some of the MLAs are facing investigations on allegations that recently there was horse trading in the Rajya Sabha elections. This allegation led to the cancellation of the polls and a fresh schedule was announced where again the winner was one who was least predicted.

I wonder how will a corporate style launch endear the people to the Trinamool Congress in the area which has a strong two party or alliance system. The new entity is looking for elections in Himachal Pradesh in November this year and then perhaps Haryana where elections are in the distant future, in 2014.

As the mercurial and unpredictable Mamata Banerjee, the boss of Trinamool Congress, is hardly known in the region, it will be the management skills which KD Singh has acquired over the years and the money which he has made which will be crucial for the survival and growth of the party. Congress seems to be the favourite poaching ground for the fledgling TMC as a media advisor of Haryana Chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda has already resigned and joined the brand new political outfit of the region.

TMC is not the only entrant in the field to test the political waters. Team Anna could be a major player in the Himachal Pradesh elections later this year. Arvind Kejriwal has given indications to this effect in the Kangra region. He launched a diatribe against both the ruling BJP and the Congress by terming them corrupt. As he has not named any alternative to the main parties, it is understood that there is a serious thinking in Team Anna to use elections to further its cause and move beyond a Lokpal Bill.

As Himachal is a small state, it could be used as a field laboratory both by Team Anna and TMC to gauge the public mood ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Team Anna is so far taking one step at a time from asking parties to vote against the Congress in the Hissar Lok Sabha bye-election last year to being neutral in the elections in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab earlier this year.  Team Anna could openly endorse a few candidates in Himachal assembly polls to judge its political strength and whether it can translate its perceived popularity into votes. Endorsing candidates and campaigning for them seems to be a natural way ahead to meet their political aspirations. It could also be a response to the barbs thrown at Team Anna that electoral battlefield is the only medium to have a say in a democratic set-up.

So the battle for Himachal Pradesh is headed for an interesting finish. While TMC may not be a player and may not even get enough serious candidates to put in fray, Team Anna could manage to become a serious player if it goes for appropriate alliances. Only the Third Front of the state which comprises of the Himachal Lokhit Party and could have the CPI(M) as a partner seem to be the possible alliance partners if Team Anna indeed goes for it.

 Congress is playing its cards well now given that it is a do or die situation for the grand old party. It lost Punjab even though it was expecting to ride back to power. The party cannot afford to repeat the same mistake again and lose Himachal Pradesh at a time when there could be some anti-incumbency against the incumbent BJP government and the state too has a tradition of electing a new government every five years.

At 78 years, Virbhadra Singh, popularly called “Raja” would be perhaps fighting the last major political battle of his life. The presence of 21 of the 23 Congress MLAs in his rally to mark his birthday and 50 years of public life points to the clout he enjoys in the state Congress. Being a five-time chief minister, he knows every road, every village and every important Congress leader and worker in the entire state. Singh would like the Congress high command to declare its chief ministerial candidate ahead of the polls but he knows that Congress is not in the habit of doing so. Given the fact that an overwhelming majority of the party MLAs support him, it would not be difficult for him to get the mantle of leadership post elections if the party is voted to power.

Another Union Minister Anand Sharma, considered to be Singh’s rival,  is known for his politics at the Centre rather than in the state and even the top bosses of the party are aware of it. Rahul Gandhi would be visiting the state this week and obviously the AICC General Secretary would talk to a cross section of Congress leader and apprise the top leadership about the popularity of various claimants.

Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal, who would be the face of the BJP in the polls, is not taking the challenge lightly. He is aware of the task ahead and has already tried to buy piece with the disgruntled leaders of his own party. Dhumal has throughout kept the central leadership of the party in the loop while making important political decisions. At a time when the political activities in the state have intensified, Dhumal is playing his cards deftly to come back to power again.

Appropriate permutations and combinations, political maturity and statesmanship along with managing contradictions would be the key to power in the state and both the Congress and BJP are aware of it. (June  25, 2012) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/75501-team-anna-a-tc-in-political-battlefield-of-himachal-.html

Just development! That’s Himachal’s only political mantra

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA 

Driving up to Shimla or being hauled up by the heritage train from Kalka has always been an experience to cherish, more so in the summers. This time, I chose to drive to the summer Capital of the British to gauze the political temperature at a time when the plains were sizzling hot with temperatures in the mid 40s. It was a cool 15 degrees less in the Hill Station, built and developed by our erstwhile colonial masters but the political temperature was hot and getting hotter by the day.

Blessed by nature, the beautiful state which many say has the best indices for living as compared to other states of the country, is in a political turmoil of sorts with Assembly elections scheduled to be held in November given the extreme climatic conditions in the tribal areas. If you deduct around 45 days during which the model code of conduct remains in force, the BJP-led state government is practically left with only three months in which it has to hammer across the point to the electorate that it has done enough to come back to power again.

“Development, development and development is the only agenda in the polls,” a state leader said without batting an eyelid. Clearly the term has been borrowed from Vidya Balan starrer hit movie ‘Dirty Picture’ where entertainment, entertainment and entertainment is considered to be the core for making a film hit. Here, in Himachal Pradesh the winning pedestal will belong to the party which chants the new political mantra of development, development and development effectively and convincingly.      

      

Indeed, everyone you talk to, irrespective of the party affiliation, talks only about development as the main and only agenda of the polls. Corruption comes next in line as an issue for the polls. While the Opposition Congress is targeting the Prem Kumar Dhumal government on charges of non-development and also alleged corruption of a couple of ministers, the ruling party is ready with a long list of its achievements and challenging the opposition to prove even a single instance of corruption. To make it more interesting, there are factions within the ruling party and the opposition which are trying to run down their own organization. While BJP faces dissidents and disenchanted faces, apparently those who did not benefit from the regime, there are similar faces in the Congress, who are battling each other out for turf supremacy.

The political script in Himachal is similar to any other state facing elections. We saw that in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh early this year and will see a similar script in Gujarat as well which goes to polls along with Himachal. While development has emerged as the main agenda in the elections in the last few years, corruption is not far behind, particularly after Anna Hazare and Baba Ramdev went hammers and tong against it.

Congress in Himachal Pradesh is a divided house in the run-up to the polls with various groups flexing their muscle to get a bigger pound of the flesh. More so, when the party senses that it could ride on an anti-incumbency wave. Two Union Ministers – Virbhadra Singh and Anand Sharma have thrown their hats in the ring and this is to become the chief minister after the polls. While Sharma was never known to have played an active role in state politics as he is considered a central leader and is shy of fighting a direct election in the state, Singh is more concerned with the state rather than his ministry in the Centre.

The list of Congress aspirants is long. Others in the fray with their factions, include senior leader G S Bali, state chief Kaul Singh Thakur and Leader of Opposition Vidya Stokes. They leave no opportunity to run down each other and ally with each other only when they sense that in the battle of one-upmanship, this is necessary. For them, their faction is more important than the party they represent. Instead of acting as an umpire, AICC General Secretary in-charge of the state, Birender Singh remains a mute spectator in the fierce turf war being fought within the party.

BJP discounts the anti incumbency factor which the Congress is taking for granted. “There is a pro incumbency wave in the state with the government not only delivering what it promised but doing much more than that,” says Dhumal. But BJP too is not far behind Congress when it comes to internal differences and facing contradictions. While senior party leader and former chief minister Shanta Kumar may not have been directly involved nor has he hit out against anybody in particular, some of his supporters have expressed their unease. The latest was Rohru legislator Khushi Ram Balnatah who wrote to party President Nitin Gadkari demanding a change in the leadership saying, "Allegations of corruption, nepotism and regionalism are being leveled against the state government." 

Balnath is only the latest BJP dissident. More could resurface as the dates for the polls get near. Party MP Rajan Sushant has already been suspended for airing his grievances against Dhumal publicly. A new outfit – Himachal Lokhit Party – too was formed by some BJP dissidents led by Maheshwar Singh early this year and it intends to enter into an alliance with the CPI(M) which recently won the Mayor and Deputy Mayor’s post in the Shimla Municipal polls. A Third Front is very much on the cards now in the poll bound state and will comprise of dissidents of all hues.

Being at the centre of opposition fire, Health Minister Rajeev Bindal has resigned to blunt the opposition which has been continuously targeting him for corruption. A close aide of Dhumal, Bindal would now be in the organisation as state general secretary.

Clearly, both the Congress and BJP are a divided house in the state and no one can say which party is more divided.

 Though Dhumal is concerned about the developments within the BJP as they come close to the polls, those loyal to him believe that HLP could help them win the elections as it would eat into the anti-incumbency votes which would have otherwise gone to the Congress. The situation, they say, is similar to Punjab where Manpreet Badal broke away from the Akali Dal to form the PPP and split the anti-incumbency votes and managed to get over 5 per cent of the vote share in the January 30 elections. Congress suffered in the process and relegated to the runners-up position even as the vote difference of SAD-BJP and Congress was much lower than the votes which the PPP got.

Himachal is headed for a murky political battle and the reverse counting has begun. Political churning would continue for the next three months before the line-up is drawn. Obviously the voters would have the last laugh. (June 18, 2012) 

http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/73735-just-development-thats-hps-only-political-mantra.html

Time to look beyond memorials in Punjab

Building a memorial for those who died in Operation Bluestar would not serve any purpose.

It seems there is a conspiracy of silence in Punjab. It was this silence by those at the helm which led to a secessionist movement in the state not long ago. The nation bore the tragic consequences with thousands perishing in the violence which engulfed the state for a decade and a half.

Now again, by acts of omission and commission and glossing over a situation which has the potential of creating trouble, the foundation stone laying ceremony to build a memorial for those killed in Operation Bluestar was allowed in Amritsar. The symbolic move, which has the support of the Sikh clergy, could snowball into an issue which could trigger trouble in the state, if not immediately, then in near future.

This is not a kind of symbolism which the state and the country can afford at this juncture when peace is still fragile and fringe elements active and looking for an opportunity to foment trouble.

Killing of a chief minister and over a dozen innocent people along with him was also sought to be given legitimacy at the same time. Balwant Singh Rajoana, the assassin of former Punjab chief minister Beant Singh who is awaiting an imminent death sentence in Patiala Jail, was given the title of “Zinda Shaheed’ (living martyr). Honouring Rajoana by the five head priests can lead to only one conclusion.  Killing people, including a chief minister, for a cause, however misplaced it may be, is justified if it has the backing of the religions leadership.    

There was frenzy all over Punjab when a lower court in Chandigarh directed that Rajoana be hanged in March this year, soon after the Akali Dal-BJP government came to power for the second time in a row. There were protests in several cities, an intensive campaign on the Internet was launched, the hardliners came into picture, the political leadership supported the killer, the Sikh clergy came out in open support and the entire establishment wanted the hanging to be deferred.

Personally, I am also against death sentence. Simply, because it is irrevocable and in the case of Rajoana the entire process of law had not played itself out. This means that after the lower court awards death sentence, it goes to the High Court and if rejected, it goes to the Supreme Court. Finally the matter goes to the President of the country for clemency and if rejected, only then death sentence can be executed. This did not happen in the case of Rajoana.

But a memorial for those who died in Operation Bluestar of 1984 is obviously an entirely different matter. By building a memorial, the perpetrators of violence are being given a legitimacy which will affect an entire generation. By this act, you are portraying the soldiers who laid down their lives and the Indian state which ordered the operation as villains. Will anyone deny that arms of all hues were stored in a religious place and it was nothing else but waging a war against the nation.  And mind you, these were not traditional arms, spears, swords, bows and arrows but modern killing machines.

 

Police officials who fought terrorism throughout the 1980s and the early 1990s say that all the ingredients of radicalization and militancy exist in the state even today. They cite mixing of religion and politics, increasing relevance of the radical groups and their new role as lobbyists for the radical cause and a hostile neighbour as factors which could help revive the embers which were doused after great efforts. Unemployment on a large scale, drug abuse, diminishing returns from agriculture and the failure to bring in the second green revolution could be the other contributory factors.

What has added fuel to fire in recent months and years is the reach of social networking sites and the new media through which radicalization is taking place at a much faster place. Such a powerful medium did not exist in the 1980s and early 90s and clearly intelligence and police officials are worried about its impact.

There are hundreds of websites, blogs and facebook pages which extol the terrorists of yesteryears and carry their pictures, life sketches and glorify their acts of terror, portraying the government in extremely poor light. The government can do little about it as they are hosted from foreign countries and even if you ban one, they change the domain name and appear again. There are websites which ask for donations for the cause of a separate state and even ask for as little as $5 as contribution. The case of Rajoana was fought not only through official channels but also through the cyber world where a few thousand “liked” the page on the assassin and added their comments on it.

Rajoana’s case was not an isolated one. There were several other incidents in the recent past which clearly suggested that the radicals can mobilise the people of Punjab with little or no effort. Controversy on the voting rights of the Sehejdhari Sikhs last year, killing of Sant Ramanand of Dera Sachkhand in Vienna in 2009 and before that the controversy involving Dera Sacha Sauda’s Baba Gurmeet Ram Rahim in 2007 led to widespread disturbance.

The radical elements are waiting on the fringes as the Shiromani Akali Dal occupies the main political space in the state. But overlooking the warning signals could prove to be counterproductive and it is here that the ruling party in Punjab will have to be on guard.

There is a section which believes in the “safety valve theory” insisting that the Akali Dal allowed the foundation stone laying ceremony for the 1984 memorial and tacitly supported some other similar developments so that tempers do not run high and the radicals find an outlet to express themselves through the “official channels”. Even if that is the case, it cannot be taken too far lest it gets out of control. Many believe that Sant Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale was a creation of the Congress to counter the Akalis in state politics. He soon had a dedicated following of his own and the consequences were disastrous.

There have been voices of dissent, both from the Congress and the BJP against the proposed memorial. Even the Akali Dal has distanced itself from it though an overwhelming number of SGPC members were elected on its ticket and the SGPC President is always an Akali nominee. Several intellectuals of the state too have come out against radicalization, citing the past experience and the accompanying turmoil.

Playing with fire leaves you with burnt fingers. A line has to be drawn and clearly the Akali Dal has to take a lead. (June 11, 2012)

http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/72035-time-to-look-beyond-memorials-in-punjab-.html

Shimla’s political point

Disenchantment is clearly visible in the civic poll results and is a wake-up call for the Congress and the BJP

Politics is all about possibilities. The down and out can bounce back and the seemingly invincible could bite the dust.

This is what happened in the municipal polls in the summer capital of the country before 1947. The seemingly impossible happened. Riding a popularity wave, built on the edifice of simmering discontent against the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) catapulted to the position of power in the municipal polls as its members took over the posts of Mayor and Deputy Mayor in the first ever direct election.

It was no fluke as both Congress and BJP would insist on consoling themselves. Ask a resident of Shimla and they will tell you that whenever an issue of public importance came to affect them, the CPI-M leaders Sanjay Chauhan and Tikender Panwar were there in the forefront. More than the party, they had become the face of the public against any unpopular decision of the Congress-ruled municipal corporation or the BJP-ruled State Government.

The victory, six months ahead of the Assembly elections, is a watershed in the history of Shimla which boasts of one of the oldest municipal corporations of the country, set-up by the British when they found that the salubrious climate of the 'Queen of Hills' was similar to the climate back home and decided to make it the summer Capital.

The Shimla result may not usher in a revolution or shape the political direction of the State ahead of the Assembly elections. But the message is not lost. Take the size of 51,235 voters who exercised their franchise in the municipal polls. This sample size may not be representative of the entire State but is much more than what the pollsters use in their opinion and exit polls to predict the outcome of the general election of the country.

Though it would be premature to predict the outcome of the assembly polls on the basis of this result as the CPI-M hardly has much presence beyond Shimla and there is a direct fight between BJP and the Congress in the assembly polls, the results nevertheless have come as an eye-opener for both the parties -more for the Congress than the BJP. Congress was unseated from its bastion which it had held for over a quarter of a century. Whatever the mood in the rest of the state or the country, Congress had managed to hold on to Shimla.

But this time, the grand old party managed only ten seats out of 25, which was five less than what it got in the previous election. The BJP showed a marked improvement as it got 12 seats in the Congress bastion, four more than last time. The CPI-M got the other three seats, besides the posts of Mayor and Deputy Mayor for which direct elections were held. For the posts of Mayor and Deputy Mayor, Congress was pushed to the third position, clearly indicating that all was not well for the party in the hill state ahead of the Assembly polls.

Lakhs of tourists visit Shimla every year. But they were surprised to find that CPI-M, little known beyond Bengal and Kerala and even there it is on a retreat, gets to power in the Himachal Capital. I got calls from several friends enquiring what could be the reason for the victory of the Left party here. The answer is simple. If there is a viable alternative beyond the two main parties of BJP and Congress and their alliances — NDA and UPA — people go for it. Didn't people vote for Samajwadi Party in UP and the Trinamool in West Bengal?

The disenchantment is clearly visible and a wake-up call for the two parties who would be vying for power in the Assembly polls, likely to be held in October-November this year. Though it might not be in the driving seat, the BJP is taking the results in its stride. Party leaders insist that they have increased their tally by 50 per cent - from eight seats last time to 12 seats in the 2012 elections — and it was for the Congress to worry about the poll results as they have been unseated from power after 26 years. BJP leaders maintain that the outcome is loud and clear and the message has gone all over the State — it was a vote against the Congress and not the BJP.

Congress sympathisers say that the victory has more to do with the dynamics of the Shimla Municipal Corporation and is too "localised" to have a pan state influence. But they admit that differences which the top leaders have with each other, dissidence, petrol price hike in the eve of polls, anti-incumbency of 26 years coupled with that of the UPA Government's eight years contributed to the defeat. They insist that "unity" is the buzzword now and the high command has cracked the whip to make the senior leaders fall in line ahead of the Assembly polls.

Whichever way you look at the results, one thing is certain. The assembly poll is headed for a photo finish. BJP has already announced what it calls "Mission Repeat" - bring back the Prem Kumar Dhumal Government to power. Inspired by the performance of the Akali Dal-BJP in neighbouring Punjab, party leaders say that there is nothing against the Government as such and its report card has been impressive in the last four-and-a-half years.

For the Congress, anti-incumbency is no longer the bottomline as they party realises that it did not work in Punjab where it had been the political tradition of 46 years to vote out the incumbent government. In fact, there are so many recent examples that the theory of anti-incumbency has started losing its relevance. Punjab is only the latest addition to what has happened in Haryana, Delhi, Bihar, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Maharashtra, Gujarat and  Andhra Pradesh in their last Assembly elections.

The emergence of the Himachal Lokhit Party, floated by BJP dissidents has added to the woes of the Congress, a few months before the poll battle. Senior Congress leaders say that a situation similar to Punjab is emerging in Himachal Pradesh. The Punjab People's Party led by Manpreet Badal got anti-incumbency votes which could have gone to the Congress otherwise. This affected Congress while helping SAD-BJP. Similarly, HLP could get anti-incumbency votes which should go to Congress in a straight contest. "This is what we are looking at and devising strategy to see how anti-incumbency votes do not get split," a senior Congress leader said.

As both Congress and the BJP go back to draw their strategy for the Assembly polls, the message of Shimla would undoubtedly linger on for a while. (June 4, 2012)

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/70293-shimlas-political-point.html