Disenchantment is clearly visible in the civic poll results and is a wake-up call for the Congress and the BJP
Politics is all about
possibilities. The down and out can bounce back and the seemingly invincible
could bite the dust.
Politics is all about
possibilities. The down and out can bounce back and the seemingly invincible
could bite the dust.
This is what happened in the
municipal polls in the summer capital of the country before 1947. The seemingly
impossible happened. Riding a popularity wave, built on the edifice of
simmering discontent against the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party, the
Communist Party of India (Marxist) catapulted to the position of power in the municipal
polls as its members took over the posts of Mayor and Deputy Mayor in the first
ever direct election.
It was no fluke as both Congress
and BJP would insist on consoling themselves. Ask a resident of Shimla and they
will tell you that whenever an issue of public importance came to affect them,
the CPI-M leaders Sanjay Chauhan and Tikender Panwar were there in the
forefront. More than the party, they had become the face of the public against
any unpopular decision of the Congress-ruled municipal corporation or the BJP-ruled
State
The victory, six months ahead of
the Assembly elections, is a watershed in the history of Shimla which boasts of
one of the oldest municipal corporations of the country, set-up by the British
when they found that the salubrious climate of the 'Queen of Hills' was similar
to the climate back home and decided to make it the summer Capital.
The Shimla result may not usher
in a revolution or shape the political direction of the State ahead of the
Assembly elections. But the message is not lost. Take the size of 51,235 voters
who exercised their franchise in the municipal polls. This sample size may not
be representative of the entire State but is much more than what the pollsters
use in their opinion and exit polls to predict the outcome of the general
election of the country.
Though it would be premature to
predict the outcome of the assembly polls on the basis of this result as the
CPI-M hardly has much presence beyond Shimla and there is a direct fight
between BJP and the Congress in the assembly polls, the results nevertheless
have come as an eye-opener for both the parties -more for the Congress than the
BJP. Congress was unseated from its bastion which it had held for over a
quarter of a century. Whatever the mood in the rest of the state or the
country, Congress had managed to hold on to Shimla.
But this time, the grand old
party managed only ten seats out of 25, which was five less than what it got in
the previous election. The BJP showed a marked improvement as it got 12 seats
in the Congress bastion, four more than last time. The CPI-M got the other
three seats, besides the posts of Mayor and Deputy Mayor for which direct
elections were held. For the posts of Mayor and Deputy Mayor, Congress was
pushed to the third position, clearly indicating that all was not well for the
party in the hill state ahead of the Assembly polls.
Lakhs of tourists visit Shimla
every year. But they were surprised to find that CPI-M, little known beyond Bengal
and Kerala and even there it is on a retreat, gets to power in the Himachal
Capital. I got calls from several friends enquiring what could be the reason
for the victory of the Left party here. The answer is simple. If there is a
viable alternative beyond the two main parties of BJP and Congress and their
alliances — NDA and UPA — people go for it. Didn't people vote for Samajwadi
Party in UP and the Trinamool in West Bengal ?
The disenchantment is clearly
visible and a wake-up call for the two parties who would be vying for power in
the Assembly polls, likely to be held in October-November this year. Though it
might not be in the driving seat, the BJP is taking the results in its stride.
Party leaders insist that they have increased their tally by 50 per cent - from
eight seats last time to 12 seats in the 2012 elections — and it was for the
Congress to worry about the poll results as they have been unseated from power
after 26 years. BJP leaders maintain that the outcome is loud and clear and the
message has gone all over the State — it was a vote against the Congress and
not the BJP.
Congress sympathisers say that
the victory has more to do with the dynamics of the Shimla Municipal
Corporation and is too "localised" to have a pan state influence. But
they admit that differences which the top leaders have with each other,
dissidence, petrol price hike in the eve of polls, anti-incumbency of 26 years
coupled with that of the UPA Government's eight years contributed to the
defeat. They insist that "unity" is the buzzword now and the high
command has cracked the whip to make the senior leaders fall in line ahead of
the Assembly polls.
Whichever way you look at the
results, one thing is certain. The assembly poll is headed for a photo finish.
BJP has already announced what it calls "Mission Repeat" - bring back
the Prem Kumar Dhumal Government to power. Inspired by the performance of the
Akali Dal-BJP in neighbouring Punjab, party leaders say that there is nothing
against the Government as such and its report card has been impressive in the
last four-and-a-half years.
For the Congress, anti-incumbency
is no longer the bottomline as they party realises that it did not work in
Punjab where it had been the political tradition of 46 years to vote out the
incumbent government. In fact, there are so many recent examples that the
theory of anti-incumbency has started losing its relevance. Punjab
is only the latest addition to what has happened in Haryana, Delhi ,
Bihar , Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Maharashtra ,
Gujarat and
Andhra Pradesh in their last Assembly elections.
The emergence of the Himachal
Lokhit Party, floated by BJP dissidents has added to the woes of the Congress,
a few months before the poll battle. Senior Congress leaders say that a
situation similar to Punjab is emerging in Himachal
Pradesh. The Punjab People's Party led by Manpreet Badal got anti-incumbency
votes which could have gone to the Congress otherwise. This affected Congress
while helping SAD-BJP. Similarly, HLP could get anti-incumbency votes which
should go to Congress in a straight contest. "This is what we are looking
at and devising strategy to see how anti-incumbency votes do not get
split," a senior Congress leader said.
As both Congress and the BJP go
back to draw their strategy for the Assembly polls, the message of Shimla would
undoubtedly linger on for a while. (June 4, 2012)
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