Local body polls to be litmus test for parties

Punjab municipal polls early next month is set to test the political parties of the state again and determine the political discourse in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections in 2014. Being held three months after the results of the Assembly elections, the polls have the potential to make or break a few careers of those in the political arena, particularly in the Congress.

Four municipal corporations of Amritsar, Jalandhar, Ludhiana and Patiala will go to polls on June 10. Elections are also being held for three municipal councils and 29 nagar panchayats on June seven.

As Congress lost the January 30 Assembly elections, making the dubious record of not being able to defeat an incumbent Akali Dal-BJP government since the state was created, this would perhaps be the last chance to redeem itself before the 2014 polls. But redemption may not be that easy, particularly for State Congress President Capt Amarinder Singh who has been battling a score of dissidents ever since the party lost the Assembly polls, the results of which were out on March 6.

It is clear that if Congress does well, Captain Amarinder stays. If it doesn’t, he goes. The central leaders have already made it amply clear that the party will take a call on the new PCC President after the polls to the corporations and the local bodies in Punjab. Not even the staunchest supporter of the Captain would have any doubt on that. I don’t think any party would be able to digest two consecutive defeats, if it indeed happens, and would definitely look for scapegoats. There are not many who can replace Capt Amarinder and keep the entire state unit along, but that is the way politics plays itself out. He will have to vacate the chair for someone else in case of a comprehensive defeat.

For the Akali Dal-BJP, the stakes are seemingly not that high even though it will like to be in complete control of every centre of power in the state. More so, when the municipal corporations of the four cities have a substantial budget and clout too. The alliance has already created a history by coming back to power in Punjab and is enjoying what is called the “honeymoon” period of politics in which as per the public perception you cannot do any wrong. The ruling alliance has made all preparations to ensure that its election winning habit does not come to an end. A series of transfers have been effected with an eye on the polls, before the imposition of the model code of conduct. Rejection of the nominations of some Congress supporters has already led to an uproar with the party likely to approach the courts for remedy.

After the assembly polls, there has been hardly any political issue for the SAD-BJP government to tackle except the case of Balwant Singh Rajoana, assassin of former Punjab chief minister Beant Singh, who was supposed to hang in Patiala jail. The Akali Dal government dealt with the emotional issue deftly and managed to get the hanging postponed for an indefinite period, giving much needed respite to the state. After the government was sworn in, there has been no unpopular decisions and no indication that the support base of the party has been affected.

For the Punjab BJP, which is playing the big brother in these polls, the million dollar question would be to see whether its urban base is intact or not. If the assembly polls are taken as a barometer of popular will, the urban base of the BJP has shrunk considerably as it won only 12 of the 23 seats it contested. This was seven short of the 19 which the party had won in the 2007 Assembly polls. Riding on popular support and carrying forward the support base of the assembly polls in the municipal corporation and local bodies polls of 2007, the BJP had an impressive show last time round which it will be struggling to retain this time.

The third party or rather a coalition in the fray would be the People’s Party of Punjab (PPP). It played the spoilsport for the Congress by getting over five per cent of the anti-incumbency votes in the assembly elections early this year. It is again the fray this time and now the party President Manpreet Singh Badal is claiming that his party was aiming for 15 to 20 per cent votes in the civic elections.  PPP has stitched an alliance in which BSP, CPI and CPI(M) have been included and it is set to play a spoilsport again.

Though these elections are being fought on local issues – sanitation, water supply, sewerage, parks or the lack of it, power supply, civic amenities etc., the issue of petrol price hike has been brought by the SAD-BJP to corner the Congress. They are also targeting the party on alleged scams but that may not be working as local factors affecting a colony and a street are the actual issues and not macro issues affecting the country.

But the underlying tone and tenor of the elections are clear. The results have the potential to change the political discourse of the state and set it for the next big battle which is the Lok Sabha elections of May 2014. If the Congress halts the victory march of the SAD-BJP combine, it could hope for a good show in the 2014 polls but if the juggernaut of the ruling alliance continuous, it would be ominous signs for the grand old party. Congress would at least be hoping to share the honours as that could prevent its cadres from getting directionless and losing hope at a time when they are still licking their wounds from the defeat in the assembly elections. (28.5.2012)
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