Lessons of Himachal Pradesh for BJP

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat have given their verdict and members of both the main parties would argue that it is honours shared equally between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. Though the score-line reads 1-1, it is a setback to the BJP as its Mission 2014 has found an obstacle and hit a roadblock in the hill State of Himachal Pradesh.

BJP was widely expected to do well in Gujarat and Narendra Modi has once again proved his political mettle and understanding of the socio-politico-economic milieu of Gujarat. As the result was on expected lines, the euphoria within the BJP camp is somewhat subdued. Moreover, it was the victory of the personality of Modi against whom there was practically a vacuum in state Congress leadership. Gujarat has merely reiterated what the people already knew - that BJP would win and there were no surprises. The third victory of BJP under Modi might have given the party a prime ministerial candidate but it does not necessarily indicate the way political wind is blowing in the rest of the country.

It was in Himachal Pradesh which clearly proved to be a setback for the BJP in the run-up to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Whether the party leaders admit it or not, BJP’s dream to rule New Delhi after the next Lok Sabha elections has received a jolt and Himachal was a wake-up call for the party to redraw its national strategy. Rather than highlighting the local issues, the BJP had heavily banked on the anti-Congress sentiments prevailing at the national level which backfired.

Here was a state election and a classic case where everything was going against the Congress and there was nothing which could have practically helped it except anti-incumbency in the state.  There was country-wide anger against price rise. Increase in the price if diesel in a state where the entire economy is dependent on road transport had affected all sections. Putting a Cap on subsidised LPG cylinders had hit every household. Then, there were serial charges against Congress led central government on corruption - Commonwealth Games, 2G scam, Coalgate scam and others. If that were not enough, there were specific charges against Virbhadra Singh, the chief ministerial candidate of the party on several counts.

If Congress defied all that was going against it and still managed to win the polls, clearly, BJP central leadership will have to do introspection as to what went wrong with their strategy.  The momentum has been lost for the party and now it is almost certain that corruption per se is not going to be an issue in the next parliamentary polls. If it could not become an issue in a developed and literate State like Himachal Pradesh, it is indeed difficult to make an issue out of it in the next elections. At best, it could be one of the planks of the 2014 polls, not “The Issue” on which elections are found and won.

It is a fact that for almost a quarter of a century, no incumbent Government has been repeated in Himachal Pradesh. But this cannot be the excuse of the party for defeat in Himachal Pradesh. In neighbouring Punjab, no party had been repeated for over four decades. But the Akali Dal-BJP did it a few months ago. BJP has done it, not only in Gujarat on several occasions but also twice in both Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh. In Himachal, anti incumbency was a factor not the main factor which decided the results.

In Himachal, while the macro issues which were being raised in the country did not play much role, the micro and state specific issues did play a major role. In the BJP, it was a battle between the old school and the new school of the party which significantly contributed to the defeat. The old school is represented by national vice president Shanta Kumar while the new school is represented by chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal.

While the old school led by Kumar wanted tickets on the basis of emotional reasons, ideological factors, loyalty to an individual, an organisation and a cause, the new school wanted ticket distribution on the basis of winning ability, on the basis of grassroots level assessment, on the basis of the realities existing in each and every constituency. In 15 seats of Kangra, supposed to be the stronghold of Kumar, BJP won only three. All Kumar loyalists lost and the three who got tickets and won were not loyalists of the BJP veteran. They got tickets because it could not have been denied to them due to their own standing in the party. Rebels mushroomed here and practically led to the rout of the party. Had BJP done well in Kangra, it would have been tantalisingly close to the halfway mark.

In Himachal Congress, there is hardly any old school of politics, little or no ideology as the party is an election winning machinery. Virbhadra Singh spends most of his time in Himachal, knows every nook and corner of the State, is aware of every hill and hillock, knows the State like the back of his hand and in every village of the State, he knows somebody or the other personally. So the old principles of loyalty and the new ground realities in the state where elections were held for the first time after delimitation, found a meeting point.

While the macro issues are important, in local assembly polls, the micro issues are significant and contribute to victory or defeat. Wherever BJP focused at the micro level, it won. But it was Virbhadra Singh who is a master of the game at the age of 78 whose micro poll management was unbeatable. The BJP was simply no match to it, divided as it was between the tussle of the old school with the new, between Kumar and Dhumal factions.

Then there was the factor of the Government employees, who form almost 15 per cent of the State population along with their families. In Himachal, there is a popular saying that the employees want more and more from the government. While the Dhumal Government did all they could within the existing resources, they wanted more and this could have been done only by a new Government.

In the hill State, it is practically a two-party system for the last almost four decades. I talked to a few experts in Shimla and they were in agreement that both the BJP and Congress are seen as occupying the centrist stage. The BJP is not seen as right of the Centre nor is the Congress here seen as slightly left of the Centre as is the position elsewhere in the country. They said that the ideological positions in the state have not hardened nor have the RSS or its affiliates been as active as in other northern States. This has ensured that BJP remains a centrist party by and large. So, the people tend to vote one way or the other and change the government every five years as there is nothing much for the people of the State to choose from between the Congress and BJP in terms of ideology. (December 24, 2012) 

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