Himachal Pradesh is waiting with bated
breath for the Assembly results, widely expected to be a cliffhanger as the
exit polls have indicated.
Half a dozen Independents and some candidates
of smaller parties, who are expected to do well, are having a time out in the
sun, being wooed by both the Congress and the BJP.
Both the parties have taken the exit polls and
before that their own internal surveys rather seriously and have identified
half a dozen candidates with the potential of winning the polls and trying to
win them over. Even the top leaders of both the parties admit that the
situation would be similar to the neighbouring Uttarakhand early this year
where a seat or two would decide the winner”.
Nothing went right for the Congress throughout
the campaign due to a series of corruption charges against PCC President
Virbhadra Singh and his resignation from the Union Cabinet. The party brought
in Singh, popularly known as Raja in the hill state, a few weeks before the
polls and that too after he was forced to quit the Manmohan Singh Cabinet as a
local court here had framed charges against him. But the astute politician he
is, Singh got his act together, managed to win over his arch enemies like Major
Vijay Singh Mankotia, Vidya Stokes and to some extent H S Balli. To his credit,
Singh brought the Congress in the race from practically a difficult situation
by energizing the party cadres and making them believe that the party was in a
position to challenge the ruling BJP.
BJP had a relatively easy time during
electioneering as there was nothing much against the party except perhaps
anti-incumbency of five years and the baggage of a tradition where the ruling
party in the state loses every five years. The internal contradictions of the
Congress helped the campaign of the party as it effectively milked the issue of
corruption - both at the national level and also the specific charges against
Singh. Congress tried to target Dhumal and his son Anurag Thakur on some
policies of the state government but it didn’t click with the voters. The
increase in the prices of diesel and putting a cap on subsidized LPG cylinders
further helped the cause of the BJP.
Poll promise of providing induction heaters to
the voters caught the attention as it was timely. Coming together of Dhumal and
party veteran Shanta Kumar made the selection of candidates easier without much
factionalism, making the prospects of “Mission Repeat” quite bright.
At the macro level, BJP seems to be in a good
position to come back to power as there is nothing much against it while
Congress was burdened with the baggage of the central government as well as
issues pertaining to the state unit. Nevertheless, at the micro level, a host
of factors are involved and these could tilt the scale one way or the other.
It was here that Virbhadra Singh has played
his cards deftly. He was given almost complete say in the selection of the
candidates and ensured that his loyalists made it to the list. Given the caste
angle and regionalism in several constituencies, he ensured that the right
balance was done. In some constituencies, Singh got his loyalists to contest
the polls only to ensure the chances of defeat of the BJP candidate. As
constituencies are small, two-three villages make a difference in the final
outcome. Over half a decade in politics, helped Singh decipher the ground
realities.
“Poll management of the Congress was
excellent. This was perhaps the USP of the party,” admitted a BJP leader here.
He said that due to the poll management, Congress managed to get in the race
which seemed extremely difficult at one point of time.
More than Gujarat, the results of Himachal
Pradesh would indicate which way the political wind is blowing in the country.
It will also point out whether corruption is a poll issue or not and would be a
sort of referendum on the economic policies of the central government -FDI in
retail, hike in diesel prices and putting a cap on subsidised LPG cylinders.
If Congress wins, it could continue with its
so called economic reforms, if the BJP wins, it would give momentum to the
campaign of the party in the run-up to the 2014 polls. (December 19, 2012)
http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/116887-independents-may-hold-the-key-in-hp.html
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