VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
The inevitability of an early Lok
Sabha polls, probably in October-November this year has increased manifold with
statements of various leaders flying thick and fast all over the country,
particularly in the politically crucial Uttar Pradesh, the State which holds
the key to the survival of the Manmohan Singh government.
Mulayam Singh Yadav is not the
only loose cannon who blows hot and cold and hot again. He criticises the
Congress on any given day, threatens it with "dire consequences" the
next day, but refuses to withdraw support on the third day. He has company in
Union Minister and fellow leader from UP, Beni Prasad Verma, who shoots from
the mouth at the slightest pretext, triggering speculations that SP could
withdraw support any moment. He keeps badmouthing and abusing the SP and keeps
repeating them till some spokesperson of Congress in New
Delhi plays the old but predictable trick and
dissociates the party from the statement of Verma.
The difference between Yadav and
Verma is too stark and they are not comparable except for their verbal spat and
ability to get headlines in the media. Yadav is aiming for the top most post of
Prime Minister of the country and this could well be the last chance for the
73-year-old leader who willingly gave the chair in Uttar Pradesh to his son
last year so that he could concentrate on the bigger political game-plan.
Verma is simply trying to become
important in the eyes of his immediate boss Rahul Gandhi, who has given him a
lot of importance in UP despite being an import from the SP. Rahul perhaps
thought that Verma could emerge as the fulcrum of the consolidation of the
Kurmi caste along with other Most Backward Classes who have been left out of the
scheme of things of the Samajwadi Party. Congress has been unsuccessfully
trying to revive the Bihar formula of Nitish Kumar while
promoting Kurmi leader Verma, formerly in SP. But unlike in Bihar
which had a space for the consolidation of Most Backward Castes (MBCs) under
Nitish, UP does not have such a possibility as Bahujan Samaj Party is firmly
ensconced in that space.
Congress knows that its revival
in the Hindi heartland would remain a distant dream unless it does well in
Uttar Pradesh. It did exceptionally well last time emerging as the largest
party in terms of Lok Sabha seats in the State but lost steam in the Assembly
elections in 2012, where it was thoroughly routed despite a hectic and
aggressive campaign by Amethi MP and now party vice president Rahul Gandhi.
Perhaps it has put its bet on the wrong candidate in UP as Verma neither has
the charisma nor the popularity to take on the father-son duo of Mulayam and
Akhilesh.
Political dynamics in the biggest
State of UP with 80 seats in the
Lok Sabha dictates that unless SP gives complete divorce to Congress-led UPA,
it cannot hope to improve its performance. Party supremo Mulayam Singh also
knows that only if he crosses the figure of 40 and comes close to 45 and the
political situation becomes fluid, he would have a chance of consolidating the
regional parties and emerge as the sole champion of the so-called Third Front
to have a go at the chair for which he has been longing for long.
People no longer believe in
friendly matches being played on the political arena and SP has played nicely
along with Congress for five years ever since it supported the UPA-I on Indo-US
nuclear deal after the Left withdrew support. So, it is certain that SP would
pull the rug from under UPA, take an aggressive posture against it and only
then will enter the electoral arena of UP.
Both SP and Congress are eyeing
the same vote bank in Uttar Pradesh. Obviously the Yadav community is still
solidly behind SP but the rest of the vote bank of the party and Congress is
practically the same. If one party does well, it will be at the cost of the
other. They realise it well. No wonder, both Mulayam Singh and Beni Verma are
spewing fire at each other as a prelude to the break-up which could be anytime
in the next few weeks.
Perhaps the break-up would take
place before the Monsoon session of Parliament so that the Election Commission
could take a call to hold the next parliamentary polls sometime in October or
November, six months before the schedule. Add the statements of UP chief
minister Akhilesh Yadav and other SP leaders in the equation and you get a
clear message that a divorce is very much on the cards. The only question is,
when.
The third party in UP-BSP-is
watching the game unfold, silently. This is the typical style of party chief
Mayawati. Given her vacillating approach in the past, both in the State and at
the national level, she would go into the polls alone and open her cards only
at the appropriate time and that will be when the results are declared.
Despite the evolving situation,
it now seems certain that Congress has run out of allies for the next Lok Sabha
elections. In all likelihood, the party will go alone in Tamil Nadu where the
DMK withdrew support from the government in March and the possibility of tying with
AIADMK looks quite remote. For decades, Congress has been the junior partner of
either DMK or the AIADMK which has reduced its political space and presence in
the state. Testing the political waters on its own strength would help it
assess its strength and weaknesses and then it can take steps to strengthen the
party.
In West Bengal ,
its ally Trinamool Congress has broken away-the first big party in the UPA to
do so and unless something dramatic happens, Congress will contest the polls
alone without an alliance. The triangular contest which seems likely in Bengal ,
could help revive the Left as both TMC and Congress would be fighting for the
same political space.
In Bihar ,
Congress' alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Lok Janshakti Party
broke in the last Lok Sabha elections and there is no possibility of its
revival now in the next elections. Without any alliance, Congress won 2 seats
in the State out of 40 and even if it had entered into the alliance as a junior
partner, the seats would have remained the same. Going alone helped the party
assess its strength and weaknesses and this would come good in the general
elections now when the party contests all seats alone.
Perhaps Maharashtra
will be the only State where Congress will have an alliance- with the
Nationalist Congress Party as usual. But here, the seats are more or less
divided between the four main parties — Congress and NCP on one hand and Shiv
Sena BJP on the other.
The results too have been rather
on the predictable lines in the last few elections with all the parties getting
in and around 25 per cent of the seats each, plus or minus a few seats here and
there. So, it seems that Congress is perhaps looking only at post poll
alliances and no significant pre-poll alliance except in Maharashtra .
Talk to the political leaders now
whether from the ruling Congress or other parties and they are practically sure
that elections cannot stretch to April-May 2014 given the dynamics in UP and
the compulsion of SP to pull down the government and then contest the polls.
The poll bells have started ringing loud and clear. (April 1, 2013)
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