VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
The political churning at the
national level and in some of the states point to a fact which may not be music
to the ears of the ruling Congress led UPA. The next Lok Sabha elections could
be held earlier than April-May, 2014. The political battle for the Congress in
its remaining term will now be to prevent an early Lok Sabha election even as
the Opposition will press the accelerator and try to pin down the government in
the next six months.
Exit of DMK at a time when the
UPA is counting each supporting MP on its finger tips, has sent signals to the
two most important parties supporting it from outside - Samajwadi Party and the
Bahujan Samaj Party. Obviously, they would be more assertive now as they know
that if one of them goes, the government would be reduced to minority.
DMK, with 18 Lok Sabha members,
did not withdraw support when CBI was breathing down the neck of its top
leaders in the 2G scam and one of its key ministers, A. Raja was languishing in
jail and so was the daughter of the party supremo Karunanidhi, Kanimojhi. It
withdrew support on the issue of Sri Lankan Tamils, an emotive issue in the
State which has potential to help the party electorally. Clearly, the DMK does
not want to face the polls in Tamil Nadu as an ally of the ruling Congress as
it perceives that the law of diminishing returns would apply on its poll
prospects.
DMK knows what anti-incumbency
did to the party two years ago in 2011 when arch rival Jayalalitha was swept to
power in the Assembly polls. It also knows that 9 years of anti-incumbency at
the Centre means that Congress more or less has become a liability in Tamil
Nadu and it would perhaps be a better idea to fight AIADMK alone with its
regional allies rather than with the ruling party at the Centre. Party chief
Karunanidhi read the situation, used the Sri Lankan Tamil issue as an excuse
and dumped the UPA, leaving it limping for support.
It is no secret that both BSP and
the SP are supporting the UPA from outside due to the potential of the CBI to
wreck havoc on them in a series of cases registered against Mulayam Singh Yadav
as well as BSP chief Mayawati. What surprises me is that none of these cases
have come to a close or a verdict announced even after years and years of
hearings, affidavits and arguments. The CBI goes slow like a tortoise whenever
the situation warrants or tightens the screw whenever these parties and their
leaders go truant and make them fall in line. After all, Sanjay Dutt is not the
only one who does not want to go to jail.
CBI raids at the residence of
Karunanidhi's son M K Stalin soon after the party withdrew support is a clear
indication how the agency has been working for a while under the UPA. Almost
everyone in the government and the party, including Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh, dissociated themselves from the raids. No one knows the truth in
Stalin's case but the past conduct of CBI nevertheless had the fingers pointed
at the government.
Even if we do not go deep in the
past, the last example of CBI acting against political opponents was in Andhra
Pradesh. CBI used its might and discovered that Jagan Mohan Reddy was involved
in shady financial deals only when he was no longer a Congress MP and had
floated a regional party. As long as he was in the Congress, Jagan Mohan was
virtue personified, the moment he left the party, he became a persona non
grata, fit for CBI action. Not only the CBI, a host of other central agencies
come into picture with all sorts of cases, ensuring that Jagan languishes in
jail.
The DMK withdrawal of support has
clearly opened windows of opportunity for the SP and BSP. They are the two
crutches on which the UPA walks and the moment, even one is removed, the
government would fall on its face. They know that CBI cannot be brought in the
picture now as withdrawing support would reduce the government to a minority.
If the government comes to a minority and the elections announced, no
investigating agency would act against them. So the Damocles Sword no longer
hanging over their heads, UPA is in too vulnerable a situation at this point
and may force it to rethink that advancing polls by a few months could help it
forge new alliances and come back with a comfort of numbers, the way it did in
2009.
Like the DMK in Tamil Nadu, for
SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, a situation is emerging where he cannot go to the
polls in Uttar Pradesh with the baggage of being a Congress supporter.
Remember, when SP bailed out the Manmohan Singh government in UPA I on the
issue of Indo-US nuclear deal and supported it, its tally in the Lok Sabha was
drastically reduced in the 2009 polls. It was the Congress which benefited from
the misery of the SP, becoming the largest party in terms of seats in the Lok
Sabha from Uttar Pradesh.
Yadav's entire politics is based
on Congress Opposition and if he is perceived to be close to the party, his
support base would shift in no time and Congress is waiting to cash on the
opportunity. Aggressive anti-Congress and anti-BJP stance has to be Mulayam's
USP again and being a wily politician, I suspect, he would withdraw support
keeping an eye on the prospects of SP in the State which sends 80 members to
the Lower House of Parliament.
Yadav had once missed the chair
of Prime Minister when United Front was in power and H D Deve Gowda and I K
Gujaral became prime ministers in quick succession. This time, he would like to
have as many MPs as possible so that he can claim the position as the head of
the Third Front or a confederation of regional parties in case there is a fluid
political situation and neither NDA nor UPA is in a position to stake claim to
form the next government. If SP gets over 50 seats in UP then nothing could be
impossible. But for that the party will have to choose the right time to say
goodbye to the UPA government and have the polls at a time of its choice.
SP warming up to the BJP, Mamata
Banerjee's Trinamool Congress warming up to the Congress and the overtures of
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar towards the Congress indicate the churning of
the political process with the target being the next Lok Sabha polls. The
posturing of these parties may have nothing to do with their possible electoral
tie-ups but indicate that in politics, positioning before an important election
and sending mixed signals does help. (March 25, 2013)
http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/cong-stares-at-early-lok-sabha-polls.html
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