The litmus test of Himachal and Gujarat

  

VIEWPOINT 

AMITABH SHUKLA

The assembly elections of Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat juxtaposed against economic reforms and fresh charges of corruption going right to the doors of the first family of the Congress has set the political ball rolling which will stop only after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Himachal Pradesh, not far away from Delhi, would be the laboratory where the so called reforms like FDI in retail, increase in diesel prices and removal of subsidy from LPG cylinders would be tested electorally on November 4. Undoubtedly, along with these, fresh corruption charges like the Coalgate and now the Robert Vadra episode would also be on the platter of the Himachal Pradesh voters. Then there would be a cocktail of local issues like the court case against Virbhadra Singh’s corruption and the party lying dormant till three months ago. If the people still vote for Congress and bring it to power, then this would be the springboard which the UPA will use to get the right momentum in the run up to the general elections.    

Gujarat is quite far away from Delhi but the national issues would be there along with the local ones. Communal polarization is a thing of the past unless Congress tries to bring the issue again in campaigning and give Narendra Modi a clear cut advantage. Congress has been out of power in the state for too long now and even if there is a slightest hint of so called secular versus communal divide, disaster wouldn’t be too far away.

Given the situation and the stranglehold of Modi in the state in every parameter, even the die-hard Congress supporter would have little to expect from the state which the party also has sort of written off from its political agenda. Sonia Gandhi may have begun her campaign in the state but making the voters believe that whatever development took place in the state in the last decade or so has been due to funds from the Centre, is indeed a Herculean task.

My suspicion is that even if Congress loses both Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat, it will keep blowing the trumpet of righteousness – it did nothing wrong and 2G and Coalgate are merely the figment of imagination of the opposition and the Comptroller and Auditor General of India. It will keep insisting that assembly elections cannot be a referendum on the performance of Manmohan Singh government and cannot be seen as an indictment on the series of corruption charges the government is facing – right from the Commonwealth Games scam to the dealings of Vadra with the reality major DLF.

Earlier this year, elections were held for the Punjab and Uttarakhand assembly – states where Congress was expected to come back to power due to anti-incumbency against the ruling parties. It failed miserably in Punjab where the Akali Dal-BJP combine broke the tradition of incumbent government losing the polls. In Uttarakhand, it just scraped through and was far away from a comfortable victory. Colgate scam had not broken then nor had the revelations about Vadra come out in public domain the way it has now.

 In the hill state of Himachal, which has not returned an incumbent government for the last over two decades, Congress faces the burden of winning a poll in which its hands have been tied. While it has the advantage of history and anti-incumbency going for it, the list of disadvantages is pretty long and this has bogged down the party so much so that its campaign is yet to begin.

For four and a half years, Congress had given a walkover to the ruling BJP, seldom protesting against anything, even for the sake of it. The leaders were cocooned to the comfort of their houses and it was only when the elections got closer that the party changed the PCC President and brought in Virbhadra Singh, who many say has outlived his utility. The 78-year old Singh was made the General of an army which has no arms and ammunition. He was made the party chief amid much drama when half the leaders of Himachal Congress camped in Delhi for days when Prem Kumar Dhumal was consolidating his position by announcing one sop after the other for almost every section of the state.

Himself facing corruption charges in a court of law, Virbhadra is attacking chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal on corruption, an argument he is unlikely to win. It is like a pot calling the kettle black and however hard Congress tries to force the issue, it is only likely to boomerang. More so, when the party is facing a series of charges at the national level. So making corruption an issue in the Himachal polls has already proved to be a disadvantage for the party. “The party has made a false start,” summed up a veteran of state politics.

You cannot hope to do in 28 days what you could not in four years and ten months. People are not going to hand you the state on a platter just for the sake of anti-incumbency. A party has to work for it and it was here that the Congress failed to play the role of an active and effective opposition.

In neighbouring Punjab, Congress took the voters for granted, lost a crucial election and now is on the verge of disintegration - losing its leaders and cadres every day with some former MLA or Block level leader joining the ruling alliance. The grand old party has failed to live life as an opposition as it is used to the trappings of power. Congress leaders in Punjab know that the next election is four and a half years away and they need to have crumbs of power through the Akali Dal-BJP government.

Himachal Pradesh is moving the way Punjab did six months ago. Congress refuses to learn its lessons and change as per the expectations of the voters, who are getting younger, have different set of expectations than their fathers and are no more content with merely slogans and posturing. (October 8, 2012) 

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Kaun Banega PM — key lies with ‘lifelines’

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Om Prakash Chautala is a regional chieftain. He is hardly known outside Haryana nor is his party Indian National Lok Dal.

Neither in the NDA nor in the UPA, he is desperate to float something called “Third Front” and wants Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal as the next Prime Minister of the country after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

So Badal, the veteran of Akali politics, who has hardly played any political role at the Centre, becomes the latest name to join the race for prime ministership. Being an astute politician, firmly rooted to the ground, Badal knows the political reality of the country and may not himself be aspiring for the position, but his friend Chautala has nevertheless floated his name.

Chautala may not be serious unlike his father Chaudhary Devi Lal, who was one of the architects of the Third Front and rose to become the Deputy Prime Minister of the country in 1989. Badal is firmly in the NDA, one of its oldest constituents and has shown no inclination to leave it. At this point of time, the Third Front seems more like a mathematical calculation in the cloud rather than a political reality on the ground.

Badal’s name is the latest addition to a dozen odd names being floated like a test balloon. Those who float the names simply want to see the public reaction or lack of it before making a hasty retreat.

It all started with the floating of the name of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi for the top political job of the country. The moment the name of Modi is floated, media rushes to get the reaction of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. This has happened so often in the last couple of years that people have lost interest in the Modi versus Kumar shadow boxing. In fact, both the leaders themselves have now refused to get drawn into the slanging match, orchestrated by a section of the media.

Having won two consecutive elections in Bihar,  Nitish Kumar wrote the political obituary of Lalu Prasad Yadav and now he himself is an aspirant for the top job if the “situation warrants” and NDA looks for acceptability cutting across the political spectrum. His die-hard supporters insist that he could become the Prime Minister as the “most accepted” face of the NDA with all the regional satraps like Naveen  Patnaik in Odisha, Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, Jayalalita in Tamil Nadu, Chandrababu Naidu and Jagan Mohan Reddy in Andhra Pradesh likely to support him. And if NDA does not make him the PM, he could switch over to the UPA to get the top job. This is what a section of his supporters argue. Well, there is many a slip between the cup and the lip.

From the BJP, Gujarat strongman Modi is not the only name being floated around for the top job. You have the veteran of many a battle, LK Advani, who was the prime ministerial candidate in the 2009 election as well and could well be the aspirant in 2014 also. He was there in the 2004 elections too but unfortunately NDA lost to the Congress on both occasions and the dream could not turn into a reality.

Then you have Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha, Sushma Swaraj, whose name has been floated by Shiv Sena supremo Bal Thackeray who described  her as the most deserving. “At present there is only one person who is intelligent, brilliant — Sushma Swaraj,” Thackeray said in his mouthpiece, Saamana. Even before Thackeray said that, she was a contender for the job in her party.

Due to his suave and sophisticated image and the ability to make friends across political divide, Leader of Opposition in the Rajya Sabha, Arun Jaitley is another candidate. His name has been endorsed by former BJP leader, Govindacharya. As the date  nears, there will be more endorsements for his name. Though no one in BJP takes Govindacharya  seriously these days, Jaitley finds a lot of support for his candidature in the party. Punjab BJP is already looking for a seat in the state for him to contest so that he makes his Lok Sabha debut in the next general elections.

From the NDA, Sharad Yadav’s name is also floated occasionally even though he derives his political strength from JD(U), whose prime vote catcher remains Nitish Kumar. His debating skills and parliamentary experience are cited prominently in his Curriculum Vitae by his supporters whose number does not exceed a dozen or two.

Now if you turn the gaze on the other side of the divide, you find Mulayam Singh Yadav flexing his muscles and positioning himself as the candidate for the top job. After handing over Uttar Pradesh to his son Akhilesh Yadav, the senior Yadav has turned whole heartedly to national politics and is looking for a possible situation which existed in the late 1980s and early 90s when VP Singh, H D Deve Gowda and Inder Kumar Gujaral became prime ministers in quick succession before losing the script in the 1991 polls. But Yadav does not have the support of a Harkishan Singh Surjeet now and his attempt to cobble up a conglomeration of regional parties is yet to take off.

Ruling UPA and its main constituent Congress would obviously smile at so many contenders for the top job. “The post is not vacant,” is the reply of Congress spokespersons if you pose the question to them. The party itself has no dearth of contenders. Manmohan Singh would complete two terms as PM in 2014 and would obviously be the contender again with his few supporters arguing that if he can remain the PM for two terms then why not a third term even though he would be 82 by then.

Rahul Gandhi would naturally be the choice of party President Sonia Gandhi if Congress is voted to power with the kind of majority it got in the 2009 polls. Rahul has been waiting, learning his tricks in the organization and would have gained requisite experience by then, his supporters argue. He may not have won any election for the party but Congress leaders — senior or junior — have been proposing his name ever since he joined politics and are all praise for his “potential” and how he could become the best Prime Minister of the country. No one in the party — from the humble block level worker to General Secretaries of AICC and the Cabinet Ministers — would oppose his name if the numbers favour UPA, post 2014 polls.

But what if the Congress manages to get the numbers despite two lackluster terms and Rahul is not ready even by then and asks for more time to learn and see the country. A slew of names are taken in the Congress which includes those of Defense Minister A K Antony, Congress General Secretary Digvijay Singh, Finance Minister P Chidambaram or even rank outsiders who have the trust of the Gandhi family.

People are watching the latest edition of Kaun Banega Crorepati with great interest and want to see who gets the jackpot of `5 crore this season. They would also be keenly watching the political events unfold to see who becomes the Prime Minister in May 2014. (October 1, 2012) 

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PM and Congress president: Always on same page!

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh staked his Government for the first time in July 2008 when the Left withdrew support on the nuclear deal with the United States. Three years down the line, no one for sure knows how many nuclear power plants are coming, whether they will be set-up at all given the protests everywhere and what happened to the lofty arguments put forward by the spokespersons of the government and the Congress party in favour of nuclear energy.

Now fast forward the time by a little over four years. In 2012, the Trinamool Congress, obviously a valued ally of the UPA, withdrew support on the issue of Foreign Direct Investment in multi-brand retail, hike in the prices of diesel and putting a cap on the number of subsidised LPG cylinders. The Prime Minister and his Government may not be required to seek a vote of confidence, like it did in 2008, even after the withdrawal of support as the numbers still favour the UPA with the continued support of Samajwadi Party and the BSP.

But what is worrying is the way UPA behaved, like a salesman, first to hawk the nuclear deal and then to sell FDI and diesel price hike to the people. In the last three years, not a single Mega Watt has been added to the nuclear power capability. Now after the political positioning of the TMC and the hardening stand of the UPA, people are questioning whether the so called renewed thrust on liberalisation — what PM Manmohan Singh has promised — would be actually followed in letter and spirit. People don’t believe it will. Once bitten, twice shy. The economy has gone from bad to worse despite an economist PM and no liberalisation was followed ever since 2004 and it is indeed difficult to accept that government would do in the rest 19 months of its tenure what it couldn’t do in almost 8 and a half years.

Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde would like to believe that people have a short memory. Mr Shinde you may be right when you say that people do not remember who scored how many runs in the cricket match played three weeks ago or the script writer of a movie released a month ago. But politics is not a quiz show like ‘Kaun Banega Crorepati’. Do not underestimate the people and question their memory. They do not have so short memories that they would forget the acts of omission and commission of the Government, its follies, shortcomings and attempts to take them for granted.

The managers of the government and spokespersons recently put forward the theory that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress president Sonia Gandhi are on the same page on economic reforms. The question which should be asked is whether they were ever on a different page on any of the issues which the Government handled in the last over eight years of UPA rule in its two avatars. There was no difference at all between the organisation and the Government and the myth that there were differences was propagated simply to send conflicting signals to the people. You can’t be in the Government and also pretend to oppose it. That is plain and simple.

Remember the Batla House encounter. Congress General Secretary Digvijay Singh talked about irregularities in the encounter and questioned the theory of the police and the Home Minister. Obviously, he could have taken on the Government only with the backing of the top bosses of the party and that means Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi. Then Digvijay took on the government on the tackling of the naxal issue and also arrest of Muslim youths from Azamgarh. Had Digvijay done all that without the backing of the Congress leadership, he would have been out of the party long ago. But he still remains a General Secretary in-charge of Uttar Pradesh and enjoys the support of his top bosses. It is a different matter that all this strategy failed to translate into votes in the Assembly polls as people saw the bluff.

The diplomatic fiasco of Sharm-al- Sheikh in Egypt in July 2009 is another pointer. The mention of Balochistan in the Joint Statement of July 16 between India and Pakistan raised the political temperature in the country and forced the Opposition to stall the proceedings in Parliament. Congress acted as an Opposition and remained tight-lipped for a quite a while just to take the wind out of the Opposition attack. All was forgotten, the moment PM came back and spoke.

Obviously, the PM and Congress President were on the same page throughout. The PM never denounced the joint statement yet the party merely played along, exposing the myth being propagated that the government and the party are separate and were on a different page for a while.

Except Sonia Gandhi and Rahul, almost anyone who matters in the party, is in the Government, occupying a ministerial position. Those who hardly matter remain in the organisation. There are only three leaders worth mentioning who remain in the party and that too due to compulsions. Janardan Dwivedi wanted to become the HRD Minister in 2009. He couldn’t, so he remains a General Secretary. Digvijay Singh had taken what he calls a political sanyas for 10 years after being routed in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections in 2003. He remains another General Secretary, continuously trying to position himself as a “Left” leaning Congressman. Ahmed Patel enjoys more powers in the position he is in right now than he would have enjoyed in the government. So he remains the political secretary of the Congress President. Is there any other important figure in the organisation left out of the Government?

So the Government keeps floating test balloons at regular intervals, waits for the reaction and allows its own party to distance itself from the decision for a while till people forget it. When there is fierce Opposition to a decision like putting a cap on the number of subsidised LPG cylinders per year, the party asks states ruled by the Congress to increase the cap. When people oppose diesel price hike, Government thinks of a way out so that a rupee or two is decreased from the increased component.

So when I read a news item that on bringing in reforms, PM and Sonia are on the same page, I wondered when they were not. When I read about unanimity between the party and government on FDI, again I started thinking of even a single instance when it was not. Congress and the Government should remember that it is too old a game of the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s. Come out with innovations in 2012. The old political trick won’t work the way it did 30 and 40 years ago. (September 24, 2012) 

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Rahul Gandhi: Need for an image makeover

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

The Congress saw the mirror only for a fleeting second when The Economist showed it. The talent or lack of it of party General Secretary Rahul Gandhi was obvious to everyone for quite a while; but all these months and years Congress deftly turned a blind eye to it.

It still has a blind eye towards the first family of the party and would continue to have so but the critical article on Gandhi in The Economist at least spurred the party men and women to think afresh whether the Gandhi magic would indeed work wonders for them in the next few years.

It’s not that Indian media has not written on the obvious though not in as many words. That Gandhi lacks the magic, connect, charisma, and is sans the talent which a rising star is required to possess in politics, has been on and off been written in the media. His ability to get votes and so called USP of being a youth icon has also been exposed. Congress never took note of it earlier as it came from the Indian media. As The Economist is published from Britain, the place where Gandhi studied and worked for a few years, it immediately caught the attention. 

In fact, in Viewpoint, I have deliberated on the issue on a few occasions after having covered the news conferences, political rallies and gatherings of Gandhi from Delhi, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh,  Rajasthan, Amethi and elsewhere in Uttar Pradesh for almost three years.

During the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, I covered the public meetings of Gandhi extensively for the news organization in which I was working then. It was strange to find that he delivered the same speech at most of the places. After covering two rallies, I knew what he would say. After three rallies, there was no iota of doubt that Gandhi had mugged his speeches and was not ready to modify it. Had the speeches been made 30 years ago, no one would have noticed it.  But when each speech is telecast live and there is media explosion, everyone would notice it which would only expose your limited abilities.

He soon became a nightmare for the journalists assigned to cover his public and political functions. The reason was simple. He was repetitive and journalists covering him got bored with his speeches sooner than later. There was nothing great to report as he hardly spoke on any contemporary issue and the problems of the day. All he did was to sound idealistic and make the right noises without ever being serious about it. Remember Kalawati and the dalit homes where he spent a few hours. All of them are still struggling to come to terms with life while Rahul is still “learning” what to do in politics and how to do it.

Here, I will quote The Economist. “But he has long refused to take on a responsible position, preferring to work on reorganising Congress’s youth wing, and leading regional election efforts, both with generally poor results. The problem is that Mr Gandhi has so far shown no particular aptitude as a politician, nor even sufficient hunger for the job. He is shy, reluctant to speak to journalists, biographers, potential allies or foes, nor even to raise his voice in parliament. Nobody really knows what he is capable of, nor what he wishes to do should he ever attain power and responsibility. The suspicion is growing that Mr Gandhi himself does not know.”

There is nothing in the article what the journalists who have covered Gandhi already do not know. In fact, the recent book by Aarthi Ramachandran, “Decoding Rahul Gandhi” is a far more objective and critical biography of the 42-year old leader. Aarthi had been a regular beat correspondent covering the Congress for quite some time and provides the analysis which can come only by a journalist who desperately wanted information from the subject, did not get it but knew the sources from where to get it to build the larger picture.

Gandhi has been rather reluctant in parting information or offering his views on what is happening in the country. He hasn’t held any press conferences in the recent past and no one knows his opinion on issues like Coalgate, inflation, 2G scam, diesel price hike or for that matter the performance of India in Olympics or the way ahead till the 2014 elections. Even during his press conferences, he used to draw a line and say that his role was limited to the Indian Youth Congress and the NSUI, the organizations of which he is in-charge as the AICC General Secretary. So, to know the views of the Congress on important issues of the day you have to depend on Manish Tiwari, Rashid Alvi, Renuka Chaudhary, Janardan Dwivedi and Digvijay Singh. As Rahul is above them in party hierarchy, he would not speak on the issues. His Lieutenants would do the job. Politics, obviously does not work that way. You have to communicate and if you fail to do that then you can always remember the assembly election results of Uttar Pradesh early this year.   

Journalists used to flock to Amethi, the parliamentary constituency represented by Gandhi in Lok Sabha not long ago as they expected to get a one-to-one interview with him. I also did the same. Repeated efforts notwithstanding, none succeeded. Now, they have simply stopped going there. “I am not interested,” seems to be the new message. This happened because Rahul took the media for granted over a period of time and built an image of a non-accessible politician who is simply not interested in you or your questions.

It is almost two months now when the announcement of Rahul playing a bigger role was made by Congress chief Sonia Gandhi. Rahul himself agreed to play a bigger role in either the party or the government, depending on his “two bosses”. Nothing has happened so far. All the vacant posts in the Cabinet have been filled. It is clear that Rahul does not want to become a minister.  In the Congress, a debate is on regarding the responsibility to be given to Gandhi in the party. The debate remains inconclusive. As the will of the party President Sonia Gandhi and Rahul is sacrosanct in the Congress, the delay is clearly a reflection on the way the Gandhi scion functions – procrastination, not willing to take responsibility and indecision.

No doubt he can become the Prime Minister the moment he or the Congress President wants in the next year and half before the model code of conduct comes to force for the 2014 general elections. But after that, it will be the voters who would install a party or dethrone the ruling.   You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time. (September 17, 2012) 

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‘His corruption is bigger than my corruption’

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Corruption has always caught the eyeballs and has the potential to change political fortunes. Remember the Bofors saga which proved to be the nemesis of the mighty Rajiv Gandhi in 1989.

What has changed in the last 23 years is that corruption has become the new buzzword in political discourse, a benchmark by which people judge their leaders. Be it national politics in New Delhi or the regional politics of Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh or other states, “corruption politics” has been setting the agenda of the rival political parties. In the run-up to the 2014 general elections, corruption undoubtedly would remain the single biggest issue for the political parties.

One can understand corruption becoming the deciding factor in polls. But what amuses me most is that even those accused of serious graft, charge their opponents of being corrupt without the slightest sense that it could boomerang on them.

Take for instance “corruption politics” in Haryana. While former chief minister and INLD leader Om Prakash Chautala faces a series of corruption cases in various stages of investigation and trial, he never desists from calling his rival in state politics – Bhupinder Singh Hooda as corrupt. Even though there could be a hint of irregularities, Hooda simply laughs away the charges pointing out to the track record of the accuser. Ask Chautala about the corruption cases against him and prompt comes the reply. The CBI is under the central (read Congress) government and it is out to fix its opponents.

Himachal Pradesh is no different. Former chief minister Virbhadra Singh is facing trial under the Prevention of Corruption Act in the CD case. He had to resign from the Manmohan Singh Cabinet after opposition hue and cry over the issue. Charges have been framed and the trial is on. Nevertheless, the five-time chief minister does not desist from charging his opponent Prem Kumar Dhumal and the BJP of indulging in corruption. Of course, the Himachal leader wants the case to be transferred to the CBI believing that till the time the UPA is in power, he could have his say in the investigations. No wonder, he keeps blaming the state government for victimisation insisting that the case is bogus as the investigations was carried out by the state police.

In Punjab, Captain Amarinder Singh never gets tired of accusing the Akali Dal leaders of corruption and nepotism. Ironically, he himself is facing graft charges and has to run from one court to the other quite often as the trial and legal proceedings take ages. Talk to the Captain about the charges and he will promptly say that this was part of victimization launched by the Akalis when they came to power in Punjab in 2007. Agreed that the Akalis lodged cases against him, days after coming to power in March 2007 but Amarinder did the same thing against the Badals – chief minister Parkash Singh Badal and his son and Deputy CM Sukhbir Singh Badal when he was the chief minister of the state in 2003. Interestingly, the Punjab Vigilance Bureau was used by both the Captain and the Badals against each other. While the Badals have been acquitted from the graft charges, the case against the Captain is still under trial.

Isn’t there a striking similarity in some of the assertions made by leaders accused of corruption? Those in the opposition and charged of corruption accuse those in power of misusing the authority. It’s like saying my corruption is smaller than yours. It’s like taking the people for granted and laughing away the corruption charges, insisting all the time that it is merely a frame-up.

“Poor” Madhu Koda, the former chief minister of Jharkhand, is perhaps the only politician who has served time in jail for over three years in a series of corruption cases.  An independent MLA, Koda became the chief minister with Congress support and things went wrong and he found himself on the wrong side of law – something rare for a politician to spend so much time in jail on graft charges. Koda can’t even accuse anyone of “political victimization” as he doesn’t belong to any party and has been practically abandoned by the Congress – a party which was sympathetic to him and was instrumental in installing him on the post of chief minister.

Former Karnataka chief minister BS Yeddyurappa remained in Bangalore's central prison in connection with the land de-notification cases only for a brief period and so did former Bihar chief minister Lalu Prasad Yadav in the infamous fodder scam. As expected, both of them blamed their political rivals and absolved themselves of all responsibility and never accepted that they did anything wrong.

The case of Jagan Mohan Reddy, son of former Andhra Pradesh chief minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, is all the more interesting. Congress never admitted that YSR could ever do any wrong even as it accuses his son of wrongdoing. No one would believe that Jagan Mohan was capable of making crores of so called unaccounted money and ownership of several companies with varied interest without the backing of his father. Only the Congress is naïve enough to believe that and perpetuate the myth. CBI cases were lodged against Jagan only when he left the Congress to form his own party and not earlier, clearly suggesting that Congress is tolerant to corruption but not to its political opponents.

The UPA government too is doing something similar –closing its eyes to the obvious. It cannot see what is visible to almost everyone. In the Coalgate, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has absolved himself of all responsibility even though he was the minister in-charge for most of the time when the alleged scandal took place. If acts of omission and commission take place under the Head of Department and the government suffers losses, the HoD is held accountable. Causing loss to the state exchequer through negligence itself is considered enough for being hauled up and face the legal consequences.  But in Coalgate, when the heat raged on, companies and individuals began to be questioned. Here is a classic case where you don’t question the policy which led to the scam but haul up the second rung players who merely benefited from the rules and system which you created.

It was a similar approach in the 2G scam. Those who farmed the policy of spectrum allocation and overlooked what was happening right under their nose did not figure in the list of those arrested and prosecuted. Those companies and the CEOs who gave bribe money and benefited have been proclaimed guilty not those who created the environment congenial for corruption by changes in the spectrum allocation policy. (September 10, 2012) 

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The curious case of Virbhadra Singh

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA 

The General has been changed at a time when the troops were lying low and were on the verge of surrendering. The change of guard in Congress in poll bound Himachal Pradesh has thrown several questions than it has answered even as the troops under the command of the General are now dusting their arms when the battle cry has been made.

Being projected as the magic wand of the faction ridden Congress, two months before the Assembly elections, five-time Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh has a Herculean task in front of him - motivating the Congress cadres and making them fighting fit for the polls. This is not going to be an easy task for the new General.

The Raja Saheb, as he is known amongst his supporters and one who jealously guards the tag of royalty, has upped the ante against the BJP Government in the State on the single point agenda of corruption. Ironically, corruption was precisely the reason why he had to hastily resign from his job as Union Minister of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises — a ministry which he never liked in the first place after Steel was taken away from him.

A court in Shimla framed charges against him under Prevention of Corruption Act in the “CD case” and the most well known face of Himachal Congress had to quit in disgrace, giving ample ammunition to the Opposition at the national level to target the UPA and Congress.

Before him, it was A Raja who was not only forced to leave the Manmohan Singh Cabinet on corruption charges but also spend over a year in jail in the 2G spectrum scam. So in UPA-II, Singh has dubious company with Raja as both had to leave the Cabinet unceremoniously.

On the corruption charges against him, the aggressive leader says what dozens of politicians before him, facing corruption or criminal charges, have already said. “This is a frame-up by the Opposition. I have done no wrong. I have full faith in the judiciary”.

As Virbhadra Singh took over as PCC chief and on the same day staged a violent demonstration before the State Assembly in Shimla to protest the acts of omission and commission of the Prem Kumar Dhumal Government, another problem was in store for him. The Himachal Pradesh High Court directed him to face the trial in a special court and refused to entertain his petition seeking either the transfer of the corruption case to the CBI or quashing a police complaint against Virbhadra Singh and his wife.

Nothing could be more ironical and contradictory in the hill State than the case of Virbhadra Singh. The man who wants to pin down the State Government on some vague charges of corruption is facing a specific charge in a court of law. “I fail to understand why the Congress leadership is taking the people of the State for granted. A tainted person, who is facing a court case, is the spearhead of a campaign which is based on corruption,” a senior party leader, Virbhadra’s detractor said. Many in the State Congress felt that it was time to build a new leadership rather than banking on a wounded war horse whose strategy itself is suspect and is unlikely to help.

The central leadership of the Congress had never been bullied the way Virbhadra did.  He succeeded in arm twisting the leadership in getting what he wanted the post of PCC chief so that he gets tickets for the maximum number of his camp followers. Jagan Mohan Reddy tried the same trick in Andhra Pradesh after the death of his father YSR Reddy but failed. Virbhadra flexed his muscles, threw tantrums and adopted a posturing that he could join either the NCP or the Trinamool Congress.

Sensing the dismal record of the Congress country wide where it has lost one state after the other — the most recent being Punjab — the appointment of Virbhadra is more of a defensive strategy rather than an aggressive one. Had Virbhadra joined either the NCP or the Trinamool, the defeat of the Congress would have been a foregone conclusion. His appointment as the Pradesh Congress president may not alter the equations much coming just a few weeks before the polls, but at least the central leadership could have sent a message that old political tricks do not have a place in this age.

Virbhadra’s political career is half a century old, having being elected to the Lok Sabha for the first time way back in 1962. He has been a five-time MP, seven-time MLA and Chief Minister of the State for five times. His towering presence and political acumen ensured that all his rivals in the State Congress were dwarfed.

In fact, none of them were allowed to grow as he wanted say in the decision making every time an “inconvenient” Congress leader came on the way, the recent example being the last PCC chief, Kaul Singh Thakur. The soft spoken and suave Vidya Stokes never got a chance to don the mantle of chief ministership nor did anyone else.

For Singh, the political mantra was “my way or the highway” from the beginning. The latest episode only demonstrates his political strategy. But clearly, times have changed. The voter has become much more aware and demanding. They won’t go for the “client-patron” relationship type of politics for which Virbhadra is known. It is here that the Congress will have to bear the brunt of voter’s indifference as it has practically declared that he would be the Chief Minister if the party wins the polls, expected to be held in the last week of October or early November.

Even in politics, there is a sell by date if not the age of politicians, certainly what they stand up for. Voters look for fresh ideas, strategy and vision. Many, even his supporters, would agree that the former Union Minister and Chief Minister has given all he has and there is nothing more for him to give to the aspiring youth of the State.

For the last 27 years, after 1985, Himachal Pradesh has thrown out the incumbent Government and voted for the Opposition. While Congress has been the beneficiary one time, BJP won the next time round.

Though this logic has gone for a six in neighbouring Punjab earlier this year and a large number of states over the years — Bihar, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha — Singh is thinking that this time it is his chance by default. The voters of the state would have the last laugh. (September 3, 2012)

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/91957-the-curious-case-of-virbhadra-singh.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/91894-the-curious-case-of-virbhadra-singh.html

Disappointing Monsoon session

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Assembly and Parliament sessions are gradually becoming a battleground for scoring brownie political points. Rather than debating burning issues and making laws on the floor of the House, the Opposition and the ruling parties have been trying to score points over each other by shouting at those opposed to them in the TV studios.

Monsoon sessions of Parliament and the Haryana Assembly are a case in point. While the Congress led ruling UPA does not want to climb down from its stated position on the so called Coalgate, the BJP led NDA too does not want to listen to what its opponents are saying. The result is logjam and Parliament has not seen any business.

No one knows what is the truth behind the Coalgate - Whether the opposition is right or the ruling party. No one knows whether the CAG has arrived at the correct figures on the scam as BJP insists or whether additional zeroes have been added to the scam figures and the loss is notional as Congress would like us to believe.

Television studios have become the new debating clubs where the politicians come and engage in a verbal duel – similar to the physical duel which Olympics Silver medal winner Sushil Kumar would do with his opponents on a wrestling mat. The viewers are left gasping for breath and do not know who is speaking the truth. They still cannot take an informed view either way unless they are aligned with one party or the other and have one ideology or the other. None of the viewers, I presume, have become richer with the debates in TV studios as truth is somewhere in between the assertions of the ruling party and those of the opposition. While one side is calling the glass “half full”, the other side is saying that the glass is “half empty”.

What is the way out? Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is not going to resign as the opposition wants. Similarly, the opposition is not going to attend the Parliament session like obedient school students as the ruling coalition wants. I fail to understand, why can’t there be some meeting point where both the groups agree and end the logjam? Will Parliament pass bills with a voice vote without any debate or will the session end sine die without any business? People of the country obviously want answers which are not forthcoming.

The opening day of the Monsoon session of Haryana Assembly was no different from what is happening in both the Houses of Parliament. It had to be adjourned three times in a day without much business. The only time, there was unanimity amongst the opposition and the ruling benches was when obituary references were made. Members from both the Opposition INLD and the ruling Congress jumped into the Well of the House at the slightest pretext to shout at each other and make noise. Both the leader of the House and the Leader of the Opposition had to make their statements outside the House rather than on the Floor. Again, important Bills would have to be passed by a voice vote rather than through a debate.

Haryana is face to face with a shortage of rainfall and the possibility of farmer distress. Then there are issues like farmers’ opposition to land acquisition, pros and cons of setting-up of nuclear power plant, violence in the Maruti plant at Manesar, uncertainty in the industries, farmers protest and violence at Rewari and of course the arrest of former minister Gopal Kanda in the Geetika Sharma suicide case. A minister in the Bhupinder Singh Hooda Cabinet, Capt Ajay Singh Yadav has alleged that there is discrimination against southern Haryana. The Opposition can corner the government on this. But is it bothered? All these issues and more await discussion so that the people of the state have an informed opinion on the issues. Ironically, with both the opposition and the ruling party engaged in a slanging match, the real issues take the backseat even as the frivolous ones dominate.

The Monsoon sessions of Punjab assembly along with that of Himachal Pradesh is also slated to begin this week. In Punjab, we hope there is meaningful debate in the session and a consensus reached to find a solution to the ongoing drought in the state. Then, the problem of empty coffers stares the state like never before. Instead of a blame game, people of the state would expect that both the ruling and the opposition parties add meaning to the debate and offer solutions for the cash strapped state. At one point, Punjab was the sporting Capital of the country. Now, sporting talent has simply deserted the state as the youth is in the grip of drug abuse and easy money. Both the ruling SAD-BJP and Congress should ponder over the issue to bring back the sporting glory and end the menace of drugs. Problems in persisting with the paddy-wheat cycle, diversification of agriculture, attracting industries to Punjab, increasing cancer cases and groundwater pollution are the other burning issues which need to be debated and deliberated on. You simply cannot afford to blame each other for the mess in which the state finds itself.

In poll bound Himachal Pradesh, the Monsoon session should not be the one in which both the opposition and the ruling party flex their muscles ahead of the polls and engage merely in verbal battle. Both the parties should use the opportunity to explain to the people what they did in the last five years and what they intend to do if voted to power. The Congress should ideally corner the ruling BJP for its acts of omission and commission and the BJP on the other hand should target the Congress for its numerous failures both at the Centre and in the state. Being the last session of the current House, larger issues may not be debated but both the ruling and the opposition has one last chance to explain to the people why they are better to rule the state. That is how the people of the hill state would have an informed opinion about their parties and their leaders ahead of the polls.

People know the difference between wheat and chaff and it is here that the political parties would have to act responsibly and differently. Congress has to watch out for overconfidence and ridiculing the obvious. BJP would have to watch for repetition of the same political strategy again and again. The year 2014 and the month May is not too far away. (August 27, 2012) 

http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/90300-disappointing-monsoon-session.html

http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/90320-disappointing-monsoon-session.html

Procrastination rules the roost in Congress

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Congress knows the waiting game like no other party. The problem now is that indecision and procrastination has taken over like never before even as ground level political realities and understanding have taken a backseat. No wonder, the base of the party has been shrinking consistently and the tragedy is that the party bosses simply look the other way round. It is like closing your eyes to ward off imminent danger.

In Punjab, state Congress President Captain Amarinder Singh had offered to resign after the shock defeat of the party in the March 2012 assembly polls. Central leaders of the party had officially given him time till the municipal polls. Again, the party suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of Akali Dal-BJP in the local body polls but the Captain blamed “rigging” for the defeat and absolved himself of all responsibility. If that were not enough, the party lost by a massive margin in the Dasuya assembly by-polls. Again the logic of “rigging” was put forward and the issue of removal of the Captain has been conveniently put under the carpet.

Many in Punjab Congress believe that retaining Capt Amarinder as the PCC President is helping the Akalis and BJP not only consolidate their vote base but also make inroads into the Congress support base. “The Akali Dal wants the Captain to remain at the helm of the state Congress till the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. They know for sure that this will help them make a clean sweep,” a frustrated Congress leader said. He had made several trips to New Delhi to convince the high command that political leaders presiding over such defeats should be made accountable in a bid to motivate the workers and make then fighting fit again.

Congress leaders sympathetic to the PCC president believe that the Captain is on the edge now and there is no motivation for him to work and resurrect the party once again as the high command has kept him on a notice. They say that if there is a statement from the central leaders that he would head the party till the Lok Sabha elections, the uncertainty would end and the party workers would again start their preparations in right earnest. But that is perhaps too much to expect of the high command – taking a decision either way. More so, when nondescript leaders like Gulchain Singh Charak is the AICC in-charge of the state and no one is bothered about his reports to the headquarters.

Neighbouring Haryana is no different. No one for sure knows when the PCC President Phool Chand Mulana resigned from his post. He resigns at the drop of a hat knowing well that the party won’t take a call on it. Mulana’s term ended long time back and he formally resigned following the humiliating defeat of the Congress in the high profile Hissar Lok Sabha by-polls last year. Poor Mulana does not know when will the high command end his agony and appoint a fresh candidate. For almost a year, the central leadership has been toying with various names for the post but is yet to take a call on the successor of Mulana, who had a rather lackluster tenure so far as the PCC chief in the state.

The party is yet to decide whether it wants a dalit as the PCC chief or a woman.  It is toying with ideas like appointment of a youth, a leader from the upper caste or a combination of a woman who is also a dalit. Having failed to arrive at a decision, the high command has simply decided to pursue “masterly inactivity”.  Even if one considers the logic put forward by some Congress leaders that there is no need for a strong PCC President in a Congress ruled state where the chief minister is the only source of power, one fails to understand why a replacement cannot be found when the person himself is unwilling to do the job.

In poll bound Himachal Pradesh, PCC President Kaul Singh Thakur is on the tenterhooks and does not know for sure what role would he play in the selection of the party candidates for the assembly election. Five-time chief minister Virbhadra Singh is breathing down his neck and trying to persuade the high command to appoint a Working President to have a say in ticket distribution and get party nomination for maximum number of his supporters. The result is there for all to see. The party is in complete shambles and pulling in different directions at a time when it could politically prove suicidal for it.

The three northern states could simply be the symptoms of the disease which the Congress is face to face. It simply does not take a decision unless it becomes absolutely necessary. It has become like a patient who refuses to go to a doctor till his disease becomes incurable.

Take for instance the issue of “bigger role” for Rahul Gandhi in Congress. It was announced with much fanfare over a month ago with Congress leaders falling over each other to welcome the move. But still, no one knows what the bigger role would be - whether it would be a membership of the Congress Core Group or Acting President or Vice President of the party. Since then, the vacancy arising out of the resignation of Pranab Mukherjee has been filled with the limited talent Manmohan Singh has in his Cabinet so there is little possibility now of Gandhi moving in the government. The party bosses and Rahul himself cannot even decide what role the heir apparent has to play in the party or the government. 

The classic case of Congress procrastination could be Mehboob Ali Kaiser, the PCC President of Bihar where the Congress does not even have a handful of supporters in most of the constituencies. Kaiser resigned from the post after the party managed to win only 4 of the 243 seats, its worst performance ever in the state. The party has failed to find a replacement of Kaiser even after two years and the way things are moving it could be another few years before it realizes that it indeed has to have a new state President. But by then, Congress voters would have moved to the other parties.

One can understand the party not taking a decision in Uttar Pradesh where the PCC President Rita Bahuguna Joshi resigned in March following the assembly election defeat. Here, Rahul Gandhi practically headed the campaign and took all important decisions. Removing Bahuguna would have led to fixing responsibility at the doors of Gandhi or the AICC General Secretary of the state Digvijay Singh himself.  So the party has wisely decided to ignore Bahuguna’s resignation. But there is no such compulsion in other states where the rank and file is looking up to the high command to revive the grand old party in their states.(August 20, 2012) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/88557-procrastination-rules-the-roost-in-congress-.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/88382-procrastination-rules-the-roost-in-congress.html

Lifeline Railways: Much to answer

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Last week, I had to travel on a short notice and I realized the enormity of the problem at hand. It was next to impossible to get a confirmed railway ticket, there was no bus service for the over 1200 km journey and there were no direct or even indirect flights available for the destination as there was no airport in and around the place I intended to visit.

Then, I thought of driving down to the place, some 1200 kms from Chandigarh. As I was mentally preparing for the drive, one of the persons whom I had talked to earlier, informed me that my Railway ticket could be confirmed through the “Head Office” quota of the railways, meant for those who can pull their strings.

I opened the computer and tried booking a ticket so that the details could be given to an acquaintance in the Railway ministry. The site of IRCTC refused to open and when it eventually did, there was a “time-out error”. Frustrated, I decided that driving down was a better option as compared to the options which I was trying.

Then, I got a phone call from an assistant who informed me that Railway tickets under the Tatkal quota were available in the train which left Chandigarh late in the night. The ticket was bought. It was a different matter that the train which was supposed to leave at 11.15 in the night finally left three hours late making my plan go haywire. But given the shortage, who is bothered about the timings as long as you get a confirmed ticket?

What an exercise it was. I was left wondering what would happen to a common man if he/her has to plan a travel on a short notice of a day or may be a few hours. They will have to get ready to be packed like animals in the general compartment. Mind you, there are laws to prevent cruelty to animals and packing them in a vehicle beyond capacity. There is no such rule in the Railways and it merrily inflicts cruelty to human being day in and day out. The general compartments are filled ten times their capacity and no one books a railway employee for “cruelty to human beings”. At least, I knew a few people and someone helped me in the exercise. Over 99 per cent of the people do not have any such privilege.

Clearly, there is an economy of shortage. This shortage is not in purchasing consumer goods or food items but in the travel sector. In the long distance sector, the government has complete monopoly through railways. Here train tickets are booked four months in advance. I don’t know in this age, how many people can afford to plan their journey four or three months in advance. Try booking a railway ticket in a long distance train in the period around the festivals in October and November. You will be told that the tickets were sold out the moment they were up for sale.

To rake in the moolah in this economy of shortage, now the government itself is in the business of “Black Marketing”. By selling tickets in Tatkal, it simply wants to keep its margins of profit high.  I remember, few years ago - before the days of multiplexes – if you wanted to see a new movie, there were toughies roaming around the theatre who used to sell you movie tickets on a premium. This was called Black marketing and was thriving before the multiplex boom. I have never seen cinema tickets being sold in Black now in cities where the multiplexes exist.

The reason was simple. The availability of tickets and the flexibility of movie timings in the multiplexes sounded the death knell for the species called “Black ticket seller”. The supply has outstripped the demand.

I fail to understand why the Railways could not understand the phenomenon that more and more people would travel for work, leisure, getting treatment, education or simply for the joy which visiting new places bring about. As the economy grows, people travel and here the mandarins of the Railway ministry simply failed the people of the country. They could not visualize 30 years ago that more and more people would travel once the economy grows and failed to lay new tracks to cope up with the traffic or introduce measures which could increase availability of seats as per the demand.

This failure is colossus. Even now, there is no planning to build new tracks and routes to cope up with traffic now or ten and 20 years down the line. Imagine what would happen when twice the number of people who are traveling now, are looking for tickets in the year 2025 and 2030. What will the Railways or the government do then? Leave them to their fate and look the other way round!

I remember, two years ago, in the peak of summer season, I was stranded at Benares Railway station. The train which I intended to board did not even have a place to stand. They were packed in a manner where you cannot even find space to breathe.  In the AC compartment, those having reserved accommodation were on their berths while the rest of the space was occupied by unreserved passengers standing like statues. The Railway Protection Force failed to evict the passengers from the AC compartment who simply pleaded that they had to travel and they had bought tickets for that. The hapless RPF constables let them travel and did not use force to evict the passengers. I can visualize a similar and far worse situation in all the trains if the transport scenario of the country does not improve. And so far, there is no sign of improvement.

After independence, only 20-25 per cent additional railway tracks have been laid in the country even though the number of people traveling has jumped by 3000-5000 per cent. This is a criminal neglect—a neglect which continues unabated.

In the developed countries, no one is bothered about the Railways. You either take a flight or drive down. Here, it will take at least 3 decades to have that kind of vehicle penetration and availability of affordable flights and airports. Even then, the sheer number of people and the increase in population would mean that the Railways would be the main career—30 or 50 years down the line. But is there any preparedness? The answer is simply No. (August 13, 2012) 

End of road for Team Anna

VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA

Forcing the government to bring in a Lok Pal Bill, whatever its defects, and making the people of the country take note of rampant corruption, Team Anna is finally battle ready. As the first step of its new political avatar, Team Anna faces two elections – Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat later this year.

Taking a cue from Jai Prakash Narayan who was the father figure of the anti-emergency protests who steadfastly refused to contest elections, Anna Hazare too has decided not to contest and instead provide political direction to the team he heads.

While members of team Anna compare the former army man turned Gandhian and anti-graft crusader with JP and are looking to recreate the same magic, clearly Anna is no JP. Any comparison would be a farce as the situation is not the same and there is no political backing for him. JP could channelize the anger of the people triggered by emergency, unemployment, corruption and the economy of shortage into a mass movement which dislodged Congress from the seat of power in New Delhi for the first time since Independence. Team Anna does not inspire that kind of confidence and there would be few takers for the theory that it could repeat such a show.

JP was practically disowned by the power hungry and warring leaders of the Janata Party even when he was alive. It was a similar situation when Mahatma Gandhi found himself isolated after the country’s freedom and had started a debate on disbanding the Congress to convert it into a social service organization saying its role was over. While Congress leaders perched on seats of power, refused to heed to the Mahatma, so did the warring leaders of Janata Party who betrayed not only JP but also the people of the country as they could not even fulfill the mandate to rule for five years.

Much water has flown down the Ganges since then. Team Anna has already realized that people of the country do not take things for granted. It saw a dwindling crowd support first in Mumbai and then in New Delhi and obviously saw the futility of hitting the streets every now and then on Lok Pal and corruption triggering the decision to form a political party.

With no grassroots structure, minimum resources and dwindling support base, Team Anna would enter the poll arena in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat where elections are scheduled in November. These two elections will be ‘make or break’ for the fledgling political party which is yet to be named.

Interestingly, both Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat have a lot of similarities. Both have practically a two-party system and both are ruled by the BJP. Both the states have some breakaway groups of the BJP – the Himachal Lokhit Party in the hill state and Keshubhai Patel’s new party in the Narendra Modi ruled state.  Team Anna intends to be the fourth or fifth player in this quagmire if at all it contests the polls.

The team hardly has a couple of months to build a structure, spot honest candidates to contest the polls, look into the possibilities of entering into alliance with likeminded parties, find issues to corner both the Congress and BJP and then emerge as a credible alternative to the two seasoned parties.

Talk to any Congress or BJP leader and they are amused about Team Anna entering politics. Team Anna had mocked at politicians during its campaign at Ramlila Maidan last year. The same politicians are now mocking at Team Anna for its decision of becoming one of the 1300 odd parties registered with the Election Commission.

So far, the Team seems to have a single agenda that of Jan Lokpal through which it wants to end corruption. For making any serious bid at power, they will have to come out with their economic policies and take a position on myriad issues ranging from social, educational, farmers’ problem, land acquisition, naxal problem, reservations, etc. to reach out to the people. Nothing is known about the stand of the Team Anna on these issues as so far it has been a single agenda organization.

As Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat go to polls, there would only be a handful who would vote for Lokpal or corruption. People would judge the state governments or their opponents by their performance or non-performance, development, economic growth etc. The performance or lack of it of every candidate would be under the scrutiny of the voters. Caste and regional considerations as usual will play a role. Local and state level issues would dominate the polls and definitely not Lokpal. Corruption would obviously be an issue but the fact is that it has remained an issue for the last few decades and Team Anna cannot bank on it as the sole issue which can get it votes in the polls. Dominating the air waves on television and contesting polls are different ball game altogether. This is what Team Anna would realize as it stares at the two assembly elections this year.   

Now the performance of Team Anna would be judged from the number of votes its candidates get in each of the assembly segments. If the Team manages to open its account in the assembly polls of Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat and gets at least 5 per cent of the popular votes in each of the two states, it may be counted as a political player with potential for the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. If it doesn’t and gets 500 to 1000 votes in each of the segment in contests, it will simply fade away to oblivion and few tears would be shed. (August 6, 2012)
http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/85727-end-of-road-for-team-anna.html
http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/85739-end-of-road-for-team-anna.html