VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
The tiny but beautiful State of
Himachal Pradesh has only four Lok Sabha seats and may not play a major role in
deciding who will rule from New Delhi for the next four years. But in the
recent past, the State has thrown results which have made political parties
think and ponder and redraw their political strategy.
Even as the BJP was on a roll
nationally, winning one Assembly election after the other in the last four
years, Himachal Pradesh remained one exception where it was a setback for the
saffron party. It gave a wake-up call for the BJP when it lost the December
2012 Assembly polls despite a national mood against the Congress. Similarly in
the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, despite the Congress doing well all over north India
in States like Haryana, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan and Delhi, it managed to
get only one out of the four seats in the State, a setback which was not on
expected lines of the party then.
Sixteen months ago, there was a
classic case where despite odds, the Congress emerged victorious in Himachal.
Everything was going against the Congress and there was nothing which could
have practically helped it except anti-incumbency in the State. There was
country-wide anger against price rise. Increase in the price of diesel in a
State where the entire economy is dependent on road transport had affected all
sections. Putting a cap on subsidised LPG cylinders had hit every household.
Then, there were serial charges against the Congress-led Central Government on
corruption — Commonwealth Games, 2G scam, Coalgate scam and others. If that
were not enough, there were specific charges against Virbhadra Singh, the chief
ministerial candidate of the party on several counts. The Congress defied
traditional wisdom all that was going against it and still managed to win the
polls.
But this is not an Assembly poll.
The name of Narendra Modi was not being evoked the way it is being now and he
had not campaigned in the December 2012 Assembly polls. Moreover, factionalism
within the BJP, which was rampant in 2012, is no longer visible in 2014. The
two main factions of Shanta Kumar and Prem Kumar Dhumal were pulling each other
down then, and now they are united for a common cause.
Under Virbhadra Singh the
Congress, on the other hand, has become an election winning machinery in
Himachal Pradesh and has a dedicated cadre base. Here, those who are opposed to
the BJP are with the Congress and the numbers are huge as no third party
alternative has been in the picture for the last four decades. More than the
Gandhi family, it is the name of Virbhadra Singh which resonates with the
Congress workers and he has built a loyal support base in over last 50 years he
has been in public life. At 80, he is a considered a master in the game of
politics and is the star campaigner of the Congress in the hill State.
For Virbhadra it is an important
battle at the end of his political life. If he does well, he will help his wife
and son settle in politics and if he doesn’t, his tenure could be cut short. In
the new dispensation of the Congress headed by Rahul Gandhi, the old Congress
leader does not fit. He is there only because there is no alternative in the
party and Virbhadra still commands the support of a majority of the MLAs.
Himachal Pradesh is unique in
several ways. It is practically a two-party system for the last almost four
decades. Here, both the BJP and the Congress are seen as occupying the centrist
stage. The BJP is not seen as right of the Centre nor is the Congress here seen
as slightly left of the Centre as is the position elsewhere in the country. The
State is primarily Rajput-Brahmin dominated with the two castes totalling over
60 per cent of the population. Dalits form around 26 per cent and there is no
scope for caste, identity or communal politics in the State.
The Dalit identity here is
different from that of the plains and they have always voted on issues rather
than on caste lines.
Though development is being
quoted and cited by both the parties in every election meeting and speech, the
word clearly has lost its meaning. People will vote for the party, who uses the
word more convincingly and in the campaign, the BJP used the word effectively
by making it synonymous with Narendra Modi.
Then, there is politics of
vendetta which has become a poll issue. Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh targeted
the first family of the BJP in the State — Dhumals — effectively. Whether
Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association got benefits from the BJP Government or
not, Virbhadra has continuously targeted the organisation because it is headed
by Anurag Thakur, son of Prem Kumar Dhumal. Being an extremely popular sport in
the State, Singh wants to take control of the HPCA by any means — fair or foul.
His midnight swoop on the properties
of the HPCA and taking them over was disapproved by the High Court. In his
previous tenure also, he tried to bring a legislation in the State Assembly to
take it over, albeit he was unsuccessful. Now, he has lodged cases against HPCA,
Thakur and Dhumal.
Corruption comes next in line as
an issue for the polls. The BJP is targeting Virbhadra for his name cropping up
in a diary of alleged payments, revising income tax returns manifold, getting
money from the proprietor of a company having interest in power sector in the
State and also ferrying apples to Parwanno Fruit market on a vehicle which
later turned out to be scooters and tankers. Of course, the series of
corruption charges against the UPA government are there. The Congress, on the
other hand, is focusing on what it calls the “HPCA scam”.
Talk to the political workers in
the State and they make an honest and frank assessment. While some see it as 3-1 in favour of BJP, others see it as
2-2, honours shared equally between the two parties. Only May 16 would show,
whether the State goes with the national trend or drifts differently. (May 5, 2014)
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