Secular-communal debate will do no good

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Narendra Modi is the toast of the BJP, the flavour of the election season and the Gujarat Chief Minister realises it like no one else. He is travelling the length and breadth of the country, addressing sadhus and the corporate honchos alike along with election rallies in Karnataka and in the process his acceptability is gradually increasing even in those sections that would prefer not to touch him with a barge pole in the public.

His main competitor in the BJP for Prime Ministerial candidate, LK Advani, on the other hand, is like Sachin Tendulkar these days.

The form has deteriorated, the fans are deserting him and discovering new cricketing stars, he is past his prime but he still insists that there is more cricket left in him and needs to play not only for Mumbai Indians but also for India. In 2004, Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the Prime Minister of the country and also the Prime Ministerial candidate of the party. BJP lost the "India shining campaign" and the election which it was widely expected to win. Down with poor health, he retired to his Krishna Menon Marg residence in New Delhi after playing a stellar role in national politics for almost half a century. In 2009, Advani was the prime ministerial candidate of the BJP. The party lost again this time with a bigger margin as compared to 2004 and finally Advani too acquired a semi-retired status when he did not become the Leader of Opposition and instead it was Sushma Swaraj who assumed charge. Advani became the Chairman of the NDA, a position which confirmed his semi-retired status as there is hardly any work profile for the ceremonial position he holds. He will turn 86 this November and when the premium is on youth, the BJP workers are gradually veering to the idea of a party with Advani being only an elder statesman and not the Captain of the ship.

Termed the perpetual yatri, the grand old man of rath yatras, Advani rode on the rath half a dozen times, starting with the Ayodhya Rath Yatra in 1990 to make the party really big in the subsequent polls. His last rath yatra was in 2011 and there is no immediate plan to launch another rath yatra in the near future. Fatigue, both in the leader and also the supporters, has prevented Advani from mounting another rath and looking for another cause.

Some in the BJP compare Advani with Tendulkar insisting that there is a sell by date of any sportsperson and a politician. In the case of a sportsperson, it is the body which starts showing the symptoms and the sportsperson cannot make runs, score that goal or defend the goal or simply cannot run the distance in the scheduled time. Newer and younger bodies have taken over, who run faster, score more runs, field better and bowl faster. In the case of politics, it is the idea which gets affected by fatigue with no new thoughts coming and one becoming the prisoner of the past. For the BJP, it is actually a choice between Dhoni and Virat Kohli on one side and Tendulkar on the other. It is not a difficult choice to make after all. In Modi, they see hope and are inspired and motivated, in Advani they see status quo and political uncertainty. A similar situation prevails in the Congress as well with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh past his sell by date and Rahul Gandhi, despite all his limitations, emerging as the new hope of the party with fresh ideas.

While Advani's rath has not moved in the last almost two years, Modi has been moving and addressing the business tycoons in Confederation of Indian Industry and also sitting with the saffron clad sadhus in Haridwar after the victory in Gujarat Assembly polls last year in December.  He is at ease with Cyrus Mistry of the Tata group and Mukesh Ambani of Reliance and also with Baba Ramdev of Patanjali Yoga Peeth and at Dharm Meemamsa Parishad in Kerala.

Post Godhra violence has been often cited by the Congress and Modi's critics of the secular fundamentalist brigade to pin him down. Perhaps, raj dharm was neglected for a while as the then Prime Minister Vajpayee aptly reminded Modi then. But Congress has far worse record on communal riots be it the numerous riots all throughout the 1960s, 70s and the 80s in various parts of the country when the party was in power in most of the communally sensitive states like Gujarat, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra where violence broke out and the minorities were repeatedly targeted. Then how can Congress brush aside 1984 anti-Sikh riots when the genocide was carried out after the assassination of Indira Gandhi in the national Capital and elsewhere?

Many won't remember and intentionally forget which party was ruling Maharashtra in 1992-93 when the worst communal riots took place post the Babri Masjid demolition. It was Sudhakar Rao Naik of the Congress who played the politics of masterly inactivity by failing to act against the rioters. Why doesn't the Congress remember that it presided over the killing of a thousand people and did not follow the raj dharm ten years before Gujarat riots? Has anyone in the Congress apologized for the Mumbai riots ever?  I agree that unlike the anti-Sikh riots in 1984, Congress workers and cadres were not involved in Mumbai. But then, if you want Modi to be accountable and held guilty for post Godhra violence, you should also accept accountability for Mumbai riots and the anti-Sikh riots. You do not have a better record on that front.  A pot cannot call the kettle black and that too repeatedly. This is what the Congress has been trying to do all this while and instilling a sense of fear amongst the minorities by making a demon out of Modi in all these 11 years.

"My manifesto is everyone should be healthy and welfare for all. In Gujarat (where) riots happened every other day and innocents were killed, today after 12 years there is not a sign of riots," Modi said in Haridwar. I am not an ardent admirer of Modi's style of dictatorial politics, but there is an element of truth in what he said. I remember in my years of growing up, every alternate month I used to hear about "clashes between two communities" in the All India Radio. Invariably, these clashes led to death of innocents from both communities. Punish all those who are found guilty of the post Godhra riots, including Modi, if there is evidence, but do not condemn the person forever. Look ahead, do not dig the graves and open the wounds time and again. Perhaps the Congress wants to keep the wounds fresh to reap electoral dividends and play the insecurity card amongst the minorities. You have been doing it repeatedly, time and again. It was time you fulfilled the aspirations of the minorities for economic progress, education, giving them an equal role in opportunities rather than perpetually create fear and play on that.

Senior columnist and journalist Swapan Dasgupta argued in this newspaper that "Modi is an idea whose time has come". Undoubtedly, Modi promises to break status quoism in governance with his model of development, successfully implemented in Gujarat and it was time he got a wider canvas for implementing his developmental ideas. In the Congress, I believe that Rahul is also an idea whose time has come. Instead of inner party debates and machinations, let the voters decide who is a better idea and whose time has come and for how long. Move away from the decades old secular-communal debate which started over 100 years ago in early 1900. It has not done any good to the country nor will it ever do. (Monday, April 29, 2013) 

 http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/2013-04-28-6017.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/secular-communal-debate-will-do-no-good.html

FULFILL ASPIRATIONS OF PEOPLE, DON’T BRIBE THEM

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

In the game of electoral populism, no one wants to be left behind. You name the party-regional or national-populism is the punch-line in the electoral manifestos of almost all of them.

Instead of offering good governance, economic prospects, a vision for the future and meeting the aspirations of the youth, offering freebies is being increasingly considered as an election winning formula.

The latest is the Bharatiya Janata Party in Karnataka. Fighting a losing battle due to five years of indifferent performance plagued by indecision, corruption, blackmailing by the Reddy brothers and removal of a well-entrenched Chief Minister B S Yeddyurappa, BJP has come out with what it thinks is its trump card. This is offering of rice at Rs 1 per kg to the poor families of the State. In addition, the party will give laptops or tablets free of cost to pre-university and graduate students.

Frankly, I haven't been to Karnataka in recent months but prima facie, it looks difficult for the BJP to return to power in Karnataka-the first State in south India where it came to power on its own and ran a Government for a full term. Freebies won't help here when your record of five years is before the people to judge. Remember in 2008, Congress had offered rice at Rs2 per kg and also a colour TV for all families living below the poverty line but still the party lost the polls and remained in opposition. In addition, Congress had offered houses to 15 lakh families and made a host of other promises but it cut little ice with the voters then. In the era of competitive populism, what if Congress offers rice at Rs25 paise per Kg and 32 inch LCD Television with DTH connection to every home in rural areas?

The logic is not difficult to deduct. No one is bothered about populism any more. Even if you offer free rice to everyone and give a laptop and mobile phone to every soul passing on the streets, they will not vote for you unless you have a sound policy and programme and they are completely fed up with the existing government. The greatest blunder which is being done is that instead of meeting the growing aspirations of the people, you are simply trying to bribe them and cater to their base instincts. Competitive populism has swept the thinking process of the election managers rather than judging and then formulating a strategy to meet the aspirations of the younger generation.

UPA Government has mastered the technique of offering direct and indirect bribe to the people at the cost of public exchequer. NREGA, a big drain on exchequer, gives guaranteed employment for 100 days. I am not opposed to the scheme per se. It has indeed helped the poorest of the poor in several states where there are hardly any opportunities for employment. But for heaven's sake aren't the people and tax payers entitled to know what kind of work was being done with the massive amount which goes under NREGA. Having travelled extensively in the so called backward areas of the country-Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttarakhand-I have failed to see any difference brought about from the work undertaken with the scheme. For how long would you dig an imaginary pond and then fill it? At the end of the day in most of the areas, it has turned out to be a bribe to the voters. You rob Peter to pay Paul.

Why can't NREGA work include long term infrastructure creation — highway construction, making of bridges on rivers, laying of new railway tracks? Why can't NREGA funds be used if an Industrialist wants to set up a venture in the rural areas and wants to give permanent employment to the people?  The industrialists and entrepreneurs will get incentive in terms of free labour as government is providing funds from NREGA and this will benefit the area concerned for a long time. Obviously, no one is thinking on those lines-of creating lasting infrastructure-as it is not as populist and NREGA continues to bleed the finances of the country without commensurate benefit for the current and future generations.

In any case, whatever you offer as bribe, voters are wise and becoming wiser by the day. They would take what you offer and want more. Instead of 100 days of guaranteed employment, the demand is now of 200 days. Similarly, the amount of money being given per day, is being increased every year and the demand is for increasing it more. If NREGA were not enough, you want to give Guarantee to Food to everyone through the proposed Right to Food Bill as if people are not getting their food. They will buy food at Rs2 per kg from NREGA funds, don't bother about Right to Food. The aspirations of the people have grown and it is not limited to having a free food.

But, as offering bribe is becoming common by the day, the scheme of giving subsidy money directly in your bank account has been started. Obviously, the indirect subsidy given so far was not visible and people did not even realise that they were getting subsidy. Now, the Government wants everyone to realise that it is the mai-baap and gives them money as well. How long will this populism continue? You do not want to fulfill the aspirations of better life for the people but instead want to cater only to greed.

Regional parties too have acquired the habit of their big brothers at the national level. The Shiromani Akali Dal promised free laptops with data cards for class 12 students in government schools and 10 lakh jobs in their manifesto released in 2012. One year down the line, no one knows what happened to the laptops and the promised jobs. The Government came down to tablets and has now forgotten even that. I wonder, how the cash-strapped Punjab Government can fulfill its promise when it repeatedly delays the payment of salaries and pensions. It does not talk on the issue any longer and would promise something more bizarre like a two-wheeler to the voters next time when it contests the polls in 2017.

In Uttar Pradesh, it was Samajwadi Party which offered free laptops. It gave some of the laptops in a well-publicised function. Perhaps it helped the cause of the manufacturing company as I wonder how giving laptops would help in the empowerment of the students and youth. There is an old saying that instead of giving fish, you teach how to fish. Instead of giving food, you teach them how to grow food. This is what is lacking. You just want to give them freebies forever and make them dependent. What will UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav do in the next election? Promise a free seven-day trip to Switzerland or to the relatively cheaper Singapore and Thailand to every family in the state!

This business of bribing voters practically started in Tamil Nadu in 2006 when DMK offered colour television to the voters if it was voted to power. In the last election, it virtually became a war with competitive populism gripping both the parties. The Dravidian parties, DMK and the AIADMK announced bizarre offer to the voters one after the other-free laptops, kitchen appliances, fans, mixies and grinders, even 4 gram gold mangalsutra for the poor, monetary help for rural households, free rice and what not. These parties really would have to become extremely innovative in future elections as they have offered almost everything they could and people would want more and more, the frugal finances of the states and the inability to fulfill the promises notwithstanding. Perhaps a trip to the moon would be a better idea.

As the election season year progresses, we would see more and more of such offer to the voters from the ruling parties in the states as well as the Centre. The Opposition would indulge in a similar competitive populism. Perhaps there would be proposals for legislation on Right to breathe, Right to walk, Right to drive a car so on and so forth. There is no full stop there. (April 22, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/fulfill-aspirations-of-people-dont-bribe-them.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/fulfill-aspirations-of-the-people-dont-bribe-them.html

DON’T PUSH PUNJAB TO THE BRINK

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Almost two years ago, the then President Pratibha  Patil rejected the mercy petition of Khalistani terrorist  Devinder Pal Singh Bhullar, accused of killing a dozen people on Raisina Road in New Delhi. This led to breast beating by a section of hardliners as well as liberal leaders in Punjab who wanted their place in the sun for a while. The Akali Dal also did lip service and demanded the customary clemency but never pushed the issue beyond a point.

Then it was the Beant Singh assassin Balwant Singh Rajoana who hogged the limelight last year, days after the SAD-BJP government came to power in March 2012. A lower court fixed the date for the hanging and asked Punjab government to comply with the orders. There was frenzy all over the state with the same police officers known for their “bullet for bullet” theory, making all attempts to save Rajoana who wanted to be hanged and called a “martyr”,  has no remorse or has never challenged the orders of the court convicting him.

Now, it is back to Bhullar as the Supreme Court has rejected his plea challenging the rejection of mercy petition and claiming that he has been in jail for too long a period and this is a ground not to give capital punishment. Akali Dal is back demanding that the government save Bhullar, whose name has been prefixed by Professor. No one knows what kind of Professor Bhullar was but the resolution of the Core Committee of Akali Dal described the rejection of the petition by Supreme Court for commuting the death sentence of  “Professor”  Devinder Pal Singh Bhullar as “deeply painful, unfortunate and worrying”.

Ironically, the statement of the Akali Dal comes at a time when no one wants to remember the dark chapter in Punjab’s history in the 1980s and the early 90s. Terrorism only led to misery for every Punjabi and 20 years after it has come to an end, politics on periodic mercy pleas and raking up the issue could play with the sentiments of the younger generation.

Recently, former Punjab DGP, KPS Gill was in Chandigarh to deliver a lecture and he advocated need for a law which makes sympathy with such causes an offence, something which was done in post Nazi Germany. Gill, credited for uprooting terrorism from Punjab along with his officers, would surely say that SAD coming to defence of Bhullar, is an act which should have at best been avoided.

Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal and party president and Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal will soon meet Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde and urge them “to operationalise the post-judicial   mechanism  of statesmanship in order to avoid even at this stage  any steps that may pose a threat to peace and communal harmony in the country in general and Punjab in particular.” What is troublesome is that whenever execution becomes imminent, there are petitions and counter petitions for the condemned militants. Perhaps that could be the reason why Ajmal Kasab and then Afzal Guru were hanged in secrecy. I am not a champion of death sentence nor do I endorse it, but certainly I am against politicizing the issue which is being done right now. Thankfully, the case of Kasab was not politicized because he hailed from Pakistan and Guru only got lip sympathy in Jammu and Kashmir.

Bhullar and Rajoana should be punished as per law. But then, the legal system has to act swiftly and decisively in other cases also. The perception in Punjab is that the legal system could not punish those accused of the 1984 anti-Sikh riots in the Delhi and rest of the country. Can anyone defend the fact that Jagdish Tytler’s case is still in the courts 29 years after the riots. You either acquit him or punish him. Similarly, is the case of Sajjan Kumar—still going on. Then, no one knows if anyone has been convicted for the 1984 riots in rest of the country.  Tytler’s case lingers on--almost 3 decades have passed and no one knows how many decades more are required to reach a logical conclusion. This is a travesty of law — doing injustice to both the victims and even the accused.

Referring to the apex court decision on Bhullar and the delay in Tytler’s trial, Akali Dal observed that the decision “is bound to invite parallels with the failure of the Delhi and Union governments to ensure exemplary punishments to those guilty of cold-blooded massacre of thousands of innocent Sikhs in Delhi and other parts of the country in 1984. Killers in fact are not only roaming free but have even by rewarded with plum political posts. Against this back-ground, the rejection of petition in Professor Bhullar’s case will strengthen the perception among the Sikh masses that two separate sets of  laws operated in the country and that they have been subjected to discriminatory treatment even in the courts of justice.”

Police officials who fought terrorism throughout the 1980s and the early 1990s say that all the ingredients of radicalization and militancy exist in the State even today.

They cite mixing of religion and politics, increasing relevance of the radical groups and their new role as lobbyists for the radical cause and a hostile neighbour as factors which could help revive the embers which were doused after great efforts.

Unemployment on a large scale, drug abuse, diminishing returns from agriculture and the failure to bring in the second green revolution could be the other contributory factors. What has added fuel to fire in recent months and years is the reach of social networking sites and the new media through which radicalization is taking place at a much faster place.  Such a powerful medium did not exist in the 1980s and early 90s and clearly intelligence and police officials are worried about its impact.

There are hundreds of websites, blogs and facebook pages which extol the terrorists of yesteryears and carry their pictures, life sketches and glorify their acts of terror, portraying the government in extremely poor light.

The Government can do little about it as they are hosted from foreign countries and even if you ban one, they change the domain name and appear again. There are websites which ask for donations for the cause of a separate state and even ask for as little as $5 as contribution. The case of Rajoana and Bhullar was fought not only through official channels but also through the cyber world where a few thousand “liked” the page on the assassin and added their comments on it.  There were several incidents in the recent past which clearly suggested that the radicals can mobilise the people of Punjab with little or no effort. Controversy on the voting rights of the Sehejdhari Sikhs, killing of Sant Ramanand of Dera Sachkhand in Vienna in 2009 and before that the controversy involving Dera Sacha Sauda’s Baba Gurmeet Ram Rahim in 2007 led to widespread disturbance.

The radical elements are waiting on the fringes as the Shiromani Akali Dal occupies the main political space in the state. But overlooking the warning signals could prove to be counterproductive and it is here that the ruling party in Punjab will have to be on guard. (April 15, 2013) 

 http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/2013-04-14-4284.html

Three power centres in Congress--Sonia, Manmohan and Rahul

  

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

  

It seems AICC General Secretary Digvijay Singh is setting the political agenda for the Congress with one remark or the other every six months. He is the only leader of the party to take a stand on a given issue, often ambiguous, which only creates further confusion all around. At the end of the day, after several rounds of the party disassociating itself from Singh’s statement, it is back to square one. No one gets any wiser.

When the former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister on a “electoral sanyas” for 10 years ever since the Congress lost the state to BJP’s Uma Bharti in 2003, decried the concept of two power centres—Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi—and advised heir apparent Rahul Gandhi that the model should not be emulated, there has been a storm in the party.

Another General Secretary, Janardan Dwivedi, who is also the head of the media department and considered a miser with words, comes in the picture and claims what he says is the “official stand” of the party and what Singh says is “unofficial” and personal remarks.  Dwivedi, the Rajya Sabha member from Delhi, says the dual power centre has worked well for the party and could be a model for the future also.

Now, the problem is whom should the people and the Congress workers believe—Singh or Dwivedi. Had the party snubbed Singh and suspended him from the party for taking a stand which is contrary to that of the official stand, people would have believed Dwivedi. But nothing of that sort happened. In fact, Singh went on and stated that he has not taken back his words. So you now have two versions on the model of dual centres of power—one of Singh and the other of Dwivedi.

It is now upto party President Sonia Gandhi or Vice President Rahul Gandhi to clear the stand as only these two leaders are senior in party hierarchy than Singh or Dwivedi. But given the ambivalence of the Congress on a lot of issues, it is extremely unlikely that they would ever clear the stand. While the Congress President hardly speaks and never addresses a press conference except in the rarest of rare case, Rahul has deliberately kept himself aloof from nitty gritty of politics as he has more or less emerged as a social theorist rather than a politician which he actually is.

Or is it a case of floating the proverbial test balloon? Singh theorises on something, floating the balloon to test the political impact on the bidding of someone. His statements on handling of Maoist violence, taking up the case of terror accused from Azamgarh or dubbing the Batla House encounter as fake came in the recent past. After the statements, the party big wigs watch the reaction carefully, let the debate continue endlessly and witness  the confusion spread all across the political spectrum.  Often, it is Dwivedi who disassociates the party from the statements of Singh. At the end of it, no one is wiser, neither the party nor the people who are following the politics of the party but a new theory gets into the political vocabulary.

Juxtapose it with the recent statements of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and you get a clearer picture of the deliberate attempts to create confusion. The PM says he is neither in nor out of the prime ministerial race in 2014. "I am not ruling it in, I am not ruling it out," he said. Obviously, you cannot draw any meaning or sense out of the statement and it is simply status quoism and stating the obvious.  He also describes the debate on dual power centres as the creation of media and a useless debate. Is there any clarity anywhere? Isn’t there more confusion? Will anyone in Congress ever stand up and answer in a simple yes or no.

Even Rahul Gandhi, neither commits or denies anything. Interacting with the industry leaders in a much publicized event, he said the question of his becoming prime minister was irrelevant. "It is irrelevant...all smoke," the 42-year old Amethi MP said. But again, why don’t you say that you won’t become Prime Minister ever or would become one day. No one can decipher what he means from the statement made at the CII.

 I remember the press conference at the AICC headquarters in 2009 when the Congress was releasing its manifesto. Both Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi were present. But it was only after a series of direct questions that the Congress President said that Singh would be the prime ministerial candidate of the party. Remember, he had completed five years on the trot in the job and the party was practically forced to take a stand on the issue. Never had the party ever committed itself on declaring a prime ministerial or a chief ministerial candidate in the elections.

Even as there is enough fodder for the debate to rage on for the next few months, Minister and party’s face in TV debates, Manish Tiwari coined a new phrase saying that the "trinity" of Manmohan Singh, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi will lead the Congress in the next Lok Sabha elections. "We will go to the people with this 'Trimurti', the Ludhiana MP and Information and Broadcasting Minister said in an interview.  For nine years, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has given us good governance and Congress president Sonia Gandhi has held the party together. Now, Rahul Gandhi has breathed life into the youth and invigorated the grassroots, said Tiwari.

So has the debate on two power centres in Congress, started by Digvijay Singh become infructuous? Instead of dual power centre, now there is the third centre also which is equally important and Rahul has got into the role effectively after becoming Vice President in the party’s Jaipur conclave early this year. Or will Dwivedi again say that what Tiwari said was his personal opinion and the party had nothing to do with it. Obviously, Dwivedi would not say anything of that sort as Tiwari, also a lawyer by training, stated the de facto position in the Congress of three power centres ever since Rahul joined politics and became an MP from Amethi a decade ago.

Coming back to the official stand of party, reflected in Dwivedi’s statement that the dual centre of power can be a model for future also, do we believe that the dual centre could be Sonia Gandhi as party President and Rahul Gandhi as Prime Minister if the party is voted back to power in the next Lok Sabha polls, whenever it is held in November this year or in April-May 2014. Or does Dwivedi mean that the Sonia-Manmohan model would continue beyond 2014 if fortune indeed favours the grand old party.

I also wonder what would happen if the Congress loses the Lok Sabha polls and sits in the Opposition. In that case, clearly Manmohan Singh would be out of equation as he cannot become an office-bearer in Congress and would no longer remain a power centre. There would be only two centres of power in that eventuality—the Congress President and the Vice President. (April 8, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/three-power-centres-in-congress--sonia-manmohan-and-rahul.html

Early Lok Sabha elections on the horizon

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

The inevitability of an early Lok Sabha polls, probably in October-November this year has increased manifold with statements of various leaders flying thick and fast all over the country, particularly in the politically crucial Uttar Pradesh, the State which holds the key to the survival of the Manmohan Singh government.

Mulayam Singh Yadav is not the only loose cannon who blows hot and cold and hot again. He criticises the Congress on any given day, threatens it with "dire consequences" the next day, but refuses to withdraw support on the third day. He has company in Union Minister and fellow leader from UP, Beni Prasad Verma, who shoots from the mouth at the slightest pretext, triggering speculations that SP could withdraw support any moment. He keeps badmouthing and abusing the SP and keeps repeating them till some spokesperson of Congress in New Delhi plays the old but predictable trick and dissociates the party from the statement of Verma.

The difference between Yadav and Verma is too stark and they are not comparable except for their verbal spat and ability to get headlines in the media. Yadav is aiming for the top most post of Prime Minister of the country and this could well be the last chance for the 73-year-old leader who willingly gave the chair in Uttar Pradesh to his son last year so that he could concentrate on the bigger political game-plan.

Verma is simply trying to become important in the eyes of his immediate boss Rahul Gandhi, who has given him a lot of importance in UP despite being an import from the SP. Rahul perhaps thought that Verma could emerge as the fulcrum of the consolidation of the Kurmi caste along with other Most Backward Classes who have been left out of the scheme of things of the Samajwadi Party. Congress has been unsuccessfully trying to revive the Bihar formula of Nitish Kumar while promoting Kurmi leader Verma, formerly in SP. But unlike in Bihar which had a space for the consolidation of Most Backward Castes (MBCs) under Nitish, UP does not have such a possibility as Bahujan Samaj Party is firmly ensconced in that space.

Congress knows that its revival in the Hindi heartland would remain a distant dream unless it does well in Uttar Pradesh. It did exceptionally well last time emerging as the largest party in terms of Lok Sabha seats in the State but lost steam in the Assembly elections in 2012, where it was thoroughly routed despite a hectic and aggressive campaign by Amethi MP and now party vice president Rahul Gandhi. Perhaps it has put its bet on the wrong candidate in UP as Verma neither has the charisma nor the popularity to take on the father-son duo of Mulayam and Akhilesh.

Political dynamics in the biggest State of UP with 80 seats in the Lok Sabha dictates that unless SP gives complete divorce to Congress-led UPA, it cannot hope to improve its performance. Party supremo Mulayam Singh also knows that only if he crosses the figure of 40 and comes close to 45 and the political situation becomes fluid, he would have a chance of consolidating the regional parties and emerge as the sole champion of the so-called Third Front to have a go at the chair for which he has been longing for long.

People no longer believe in friendly matches being played on the political arena and SP has played nicely along with Congress for five years ever since it supported the UPA-I on Indo-US nuclear deal after the Left withdrew support. So, it is certain that SP would pull the rug from under UPA, take an aggressive posture against it and only then will enter the electoral arena of UP.

Both SP and Congress are eyeing the same vote bank in Uttar Pradesh. Obviously the Yadav community is still solidly behind SP but the rest of the vote bank of the party and Congress is practically the same. If one party does well, it will be at the cost of the other. They realise it well. No wonder, both Mulayam Singh and Beni Verma are spewing fire at each other as a prelude to the break-up which could be anytime in the next few weeks.

Perhaps the break-up would take place before the Monsoon session of Parliament so that the Election Commission could take a call to hold the next parliamentary polls sometime in October or November, six months before the schedule. Add the statements of UP chief minister Akhilesh Yadav and other SP leaders in the equation and you get a clear message that a divorce is very much on the cards. The only question is, when.

The third party in UP-BSP-is watching the game unfold, silently. This is the typical style of party chief Mayawati. Given her vacillating approach in the past, both in the State and at the national level, she would go into the polls alone and open her cards only at the appropriate time and that will be when the results are declared.

Despite the evolving situation, it now seems certain that Congress has run out of allies for the next Lok Sabha elections. In all likelihood, the party will go alone in Tamil Nadu where the DMK withdrew support from the government in March and the possibility of tying with AIADMK looks quite remote. For decades, Congress has been the junior partner of either DMK or the AIADMK which has reduced its political space and presence in the state. Testing the political waters on its own strength would help it assess its strength and weaknesses and then it can take steps to strengthen the party.

In West Bengal, its ally Trinamool Congress has broken away-the first big party in the UPA to do so and unless something dramatic happens, Congress will contest the polls alone without an alliance. The triangular contest which seems likely in Bengal, could help revive the Left as both TMC and Congress would be fighting for the same political space.

In Bihar, Congress' alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Lok Janshakti Party broke in the last Lok Sabha elections and there is no possibility of its revival now in the next elections. Without any alliance, Congress won 2 seats in the State out of 40 and even if it had entered into the alliance as a junior partner, the seats would have remained the same. Going alone helped the party assess its strength and weaknesses and this would come good in the general elections now when the party contests all seats alone.

Perhaps Maharashtra will be the only State where Congress will have an alliance- with the Nationalist Congress Party as usual. But here, the seats are more or less divided between the four main parties — Congress and NCP on one hand and Shiv Sena BJP on the other.

The results too have been rather on the predictable lines in the last few elections with all the parties getting in and around 25 per cent of the seats each, plus or minus a few seats here and there. So, it seems that Congress is perhaps looking only at post poll alliances and no significant pre-poll alliance except in Maharashtra.

Talk to the political leaders now whether from the ruling Congress or other parties and they are practically sure that elections cannot stretch to April-May 2014 given the dynamics in UP and the compulsion of SP to pull down the government and then contest the polls. The poll bells have started ringing loud and clear. (April 1, 2013)

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/early-lok-sabha-elections-on-the-horizon.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/2013-04-01-2681.html