VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
After the thrashing which
Congress got in semi-finals before the big battle of 2014, dust seems to have
somewhat settled down and given time to the grand old party to redraw its
strategy.
An overhaul of the AICC is on
cards with several Ministers expected to join the organisation to give it a
push ahead of Lok Sabha elections. Union Environment Minister Jayanthi
Natarajan was only the first to resign. In any case, there is hardly anything left
to do in the Government now given its short span and Ministers are rushing to
the organisation and 24 Akbar Road
to be a part of the so called “Team Rahul”. The Congress Vice-President could
well be officially announced the prime ministerial candidate of the party in
the New Year to counter Narendra Modi and to bring some energy in the party
workers. Obviously voters would hardly be energised by that as they have seen
enough of Rahul’s speeches and monologue over a period of time without much
visible effect.
Party chiefs in Delhi
and Chhattisgarh have been summarily removed while in Madhya Pradesh and
Rajasthan, Congress does not know who to blame but nevertheless is set to
overhaul its organisation to take on an ever growing BJP. In fact, the defeats
in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have been so massive that the party is yet to
introspect into the reasons and take corrective measures. Some in Congress are
already talking about the disaster in the waiting — party drawing blank in
Rajasthan, which looks a possibility at this juncture given the gloomy
performance and seats it got in the Assembly polls.
It is almost certain that the
States which went for Assembly polls — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh
and Delhi — would hand out almost a
similar verdict in the Lok Sabha polls. The voting pattern in the 2008 Assembly
polls and the 2009 Lok Sabha polls was almost similar in these States and there
is no reason to believe that it would be different this time round. This means
Congress would be limited to less than 20 seats while BJP’s tally could cross
the 50 mark from these four States sending 72 members to the Lok Sabha. This
would be a remarkable jump from the tally of 29 it had in the 2009 polls.
As these four States are expected
to give a dressing down to the grand old party, the focus has to be elsewhere,
in the other big States. Even the party strategists have written off these
States even though some changes in organisation here and there would end status
quoism and defeatist tendency and bring in an element of optimism.
No wonder, drawing board managers
of Congress are looking at Bihar as a “big hope” for UPA
this time with a grand alliance of Congress, RJD, LJP, NCP and CPI(ML) on the
cards and expected to take BJP and JDU separately. For the first time in almost
two decades, BJP and JDU (earlier Samta Party) would be fighting each other and
also the RJD led grand alliance. This itself has given hopes to convicted Lalu
Prasad Yadav who himself can no longer fight an election or hold an office. Given
the ground realities in the state which sends 40 members to the Lok Sabha, even
if such an alliance materialises, the fight seems to be between JDU and BJP in
most parts of the State except in certain isolated pockets. Optimism of
Congress that an alliance and contesting on 10 seats would help its cause has
severe limitations. The alliance has nothing new to offer and would merely be a
caste conglomeration — something which has been repeatedly rejected by the
people of the State. It is clearly a battle between two Ns — Nitish Kumar
versus Narendra Modi — in the State with Lalu Prasad trying to don the boxing
gloves and put his hands in the ring from a distance. Also, Lalu’s alliance
with Congress will give sufficient fodder not only to BJP but also to the
fledgling Aam Aadmi Party which has been trying to make corruption an election
plank.
Picture for Congress looks gloomy
in Uttar Pradesh as well, the home State of Congress President and
Vice-President. Even if you do not take into account the party losing seven of
the 10 Assembly seats from Amethi and Raebareli, represented by Rahul and Sonia
respectively in the February 2012 Assembly polls, the fact that Rahul failed
badly in the polls and there is no family magic in the State still haunt
old-time Congress workers. Rahul led from the front, addressed dozens of
rallies, overhauled the Congress structure, selected candidates, made important
decision but managed to get just around two dozen seats in the State.
That perhaps remains the biggest
failure of Rahul in his home State. If anyone thinks that since then the party
has moved forward and improved drastically in the Lok Sabha polls, he would
only be doing this at the cost of his credibility.
Even the most diehard Congress
supporter would be looking at a single digit figure in the State which sent 22
members of the party in the 2009 polls. Given the electoral mood, this single
digit could even be limited to two seats — Amethi and Raebareli with a surprise
or two thrown from elsewhere in the vast State.
So which is the State where
Congress will get seats in the double digit? Of course, in the Telangana
region, the party is expected to do well as it showed belated seriousness in
carving out a separate State. But again TRS would be there to share the honours
and even here, alone Congress would not touch double digit though in alliance
with TRS, it could sweep the polls given the regional dynamics and the strong
demand for separate State being met. In Karnataka, Congress is the ruling party
and this could perhaps be the only State from where Congress figures could be
in the double digit.
Beyond this, Congress would be
struggling hard to get into the double digit figure from any State. In Maharashtra ,
the fatigue factor and multiple anti-incumbency of the Central as well as the
State Government has set in and it would be difficult for Congress to touch the
figure of 10 this time. Gujarat ’s son of soil Narendra
Modi is the prime ministerial candidate of BJP and that would restrict Congress
in the State this time even though the party has been in the double digit all
these years even in the heydays of Modi.
In Tamil Nadu, Congress has no
alliance partner and has no hope. In West Bengal , Mamata
Banerjee is still going strong and there are no signs that she will go back to
Congress fold again. In Odisha, Naveen Patnaik signed the death warrant of
Congress over a decade back and the party is as good as finished. In Haryana,
Aam Aadmi Party is threatening to repeat the performance of Delhi
and the lacklustre performance of the State Government in the second tenure has
only worsened the scenario.
Law of diminishing returns could
also be seen in Punjab , the home State of Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh where the party would
struggle to cross the half dozen mark. Of course, if the Prime Minister
contests from his home State, the story could be slightly different. But Singh
prefers the Rajya Sabha route after burning his fingers badly from South
Delhi over a decade back. So where are the numbers coming from to
make Congress cross double digit in the Lok Sabha polls of 2014? Well, that is
the million dollar question. (December 23, 2013)
No comments:
Post a Comment