VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
National Democratic Front (NDA)
is alive and kicking. While the BJP is making rapid strides to bid for power in
2014, there was always a question mark on the allies which the NDA would have
in the run-up to the polls and in the post poll arithmetic.
But the rally of Indian National
Lok Dal (INLD) in Kurukshetra last week has allayed apprehensions of the
regional parties about the big brotherly approach of BJP towards them. The
party sent one of its Vice Presidents — Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi — to cement ties
with the regional outfit even though no one expected it nor was it known in
advance. The rally and unexpected participation of BJP was significant as it is
more or less clear at this juncture that if the saffron party has the maximum
support amongst the regional parties and gets close to 200 seats only then it
would get the Prime Minister’s chair post 2014 Lok Sabha polls.
Some of the major constituents of
NDA during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s regime attended the rally to mark the birth
centenary of Third Front veteran and former Deputy Prime Minister Chaudhary
Devi Lal. Though it was organised by the INLD in the absence of jailed Om
Prakash Chautala and his son Ajay Chautala, it gave enough indications that if
BJP got close to power, it would not lack the support of new allies even if
they do not enter into a pre-poll alliance.
The BJP and INLD parted ways in
Haryana in 2009 on a bitter note before the Assembly polls. Ironically, even as
they refused to stitch an alliance, there was hardly any major contentious
issue except the perception of leaders of either parties on seat sharing and
doubts about strength of each other in some constituencies. This proved to be
political suicide for both the parties as Congress came to power again in the
state despite getting only 40 of the 90 seats in the Assembly. Results
indicated that had INLD and BJP fought together, they would have easily come to
power in the State.
Now BJP has an alliance with
Haryana Janhit Congress led by Kuldeep Bishnoi, a political marriage bereft of
popular support, which has failed to take off on the ground. But after the
Kurukshetra rally, leaders of BJP have given enough hints that even if a pre
poll alliance does not take place with INLD, the Chautala led party would give
unconditional support to NDA with whatever number it gets. Already Abhay
Chautala, running the show in the absence of his jailed father and brother, has
categorically said that his party would support Narendra Modi unconditionally.
Moreover, Haryana Assembly elections are slated in November 2014 after the Lok
Sabha polls and doors would be open for a three party grand Opposition alliance
comprising of HJC, INLD and BJP — a formation which is bound to give sleepless
nights to the ruling Congress.
In the rally, NDA veteran and
Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal gave a clarion call for unity of all
parties opposed to the Congress. At present, Akali Dal in Punjab
and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra remain the only allies of
NDA who have never parted ways with BJP and always supported it come what may.
Badal, the Akali Dal patron who had strong bond not only with Chaudhary Devi
Lal but also his son Om Prakash Chautala, harped on the theme of unity against
the Congress. Not surprisingly, Telugu Desam Party, Asom Gana Parishad and RPI
too were represented in the rally, indicating that political dynamics keeps
changing and there could be fresh realignment of political forces before or
after 2014 polls.
In Haryana, it is almost certain
that BJP will not tie up with INLD in the Lok Sabha polls as the party has been
tainted following the conviction of both the Chautalas in a corruption case
pertaining to recruitment. Congress would undoubtedly leave no stone unturned
to target BJP if an alliance comes through with INLD. Also, it will negate the
charges of BJP against Congress on a series of scams in the UPA-II regime. But
the message of Kurukshetra is different and has gone loud and wide — for BJP no
party is untouchable against the Congress.
Ahead of the 2014 battle, this
message would perhaps help BJP and NDA in the northern region, an area where it
is quite weak and is heavily dependent on allies. The Northern States,
comprising Haryana, Punjab , Himachal
Pradesh , UT Chandigarh
and Jammu and Kashmir has 34
seats and proved to be the nemesis for the NDA in the 2004 polls. Out of 34
seats in the last Lok Sabha elections, BJP on its own did badly due to its
limited presence in the area getting merely 4 seats while along with Akali Dal,
its alliance partner in Punjab , it got 8 seats in the
entire region. This is less than 25 per cent and would not help its cause in
the battle ahead.
In 2009, Congress swept the polls
in Haryana getting 9 of the 10 seats and in Jammu and
Kashmir with all the 6 seats in its kitty along with
National Conference. Even in Punjab , Congress did well
getting 8 of the 13 seats. An impressive performance in the region helped it
form Government in the centre.
Except in Himachal Pradesh where
it has always been a direct contest between BJP and Congress, in the rest of
the states, the saffron party would have to depend on allies to get respectable
numbers in 2014. The significance of Kurukshetra lies here with the perception
that BJP has shed the big brotherly approach. If NDA improves its tally in
Punjab from the present 5, retains at least half of the 4 seats in Himachal
Pradesh, manages to get five of the 10 seats in Haryana with a zero base at
this point, it would significantly add to its kitty.
In Jammu
and Kashmir , National Conference would not switch
over to the NDA as it is in alliance with Congress in the State Assembly but
being responsive to the sensitivities of the Farooq and Omar Abdullah led party
would help NDA in the long run and in netting
more allies when it reaches the crunch situation. Being responsive to allies
and regional parties would help BJP get the grand post poll alliance, which was
once the hallmark of the Vajpayee regime. Trinamool Congress, AIADMK, Biju
Janata Dal, Telugu Desam Party, Telangana Rashtra Samiti, YSR Congress, INLD,
Rashtriya Lok Dal, MNS in Maharashtra , possibly BSP in
Uttar Pradesh and the regional parties of North East could be the hunting
ground for the BJP. Meeting regional aspirations and appropriate response would
be the key here. (November 5, 2013)
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