More castes under OBC an exercise in futility

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

The ancestors of Captain Amarinder Singh may have ruled over half of Punjab as rulers of Patiala princely State and he himself ruled entire Punjab as a democratically elected Chief Minister but now he practically wants reservation for himself and those belonging to his caste.

The demand would come as a surprise for many. But yes, the former Chief Minister from Patiala royalty wants reservation for the Jat Sikhs of Punjab in the Other Backward Caste (OBC) category. Capt Amarinder wears two hats. He is a Permanent Invitee to the Congress Working Committee but that is not important. What is important is that he took over as the President of the All India Jat Mahasabha when he was unemployed politically and removed as Punjab Congress chief. Being a leader of the caste group, he was the first to argue that Jat Sikhs need reservations in Punjab as it was being extended to Hindu Jats in neighbouring Haryana and Rajasthan.

The story of another Jat Sikh, Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal is the same. He has been the Chief Minister for five terms, is widely respected for his statesmanship and earthly wisdom and his son presides over a huge business empire apart from being the Deputy Chief Minister. He too advocates OBC status for the Jat Sikhs in Punjab, undoubtedly the dominant caste socially, economically and in terms of land holding. I do not know how many Jat Sikhs in Punjab would feel elated if they are categorised as “Backward” in the nomenclature and start getting reservations in jobs and educational institutions. But I am sure a lot of them would resent such a move as they have done well in all fields of life without the crutches of any reservation all these years not only in India but all parts of the world.

The situation is no different in neighbouring Haryana — ruled by another Jat, Bhupinder Singh Hooda. Cutting across party lines, the community has been demanding OBC status though not seriously. Most of them join agitation when the farming season is off and they have to while away their time waiting as they are for the standing crops in their field to mature. Hooda has been paying lip service to the demand of the community knowing that reservation or not, OBC status or not, the community will remain socially and economically dominant caste of the State for decades and centuries to come.

When I was in the university, I read the concept of dominant caste given by noted sociologist MN Srinivas which is perhaps relevant for all times to come for the rural areas of the country. It holds that a caste is dominant in an area due to its economic strength, political power, ritual purity and numerical strength. The dominant caste wields economic and political power over the other caste groups and enjoys a high ritual status in the local caste hierarchy. The dominant caste may not be ritually high but enjoy high status because of wealth, political power and numerical strength. The presence of educated persons and high occupation rate also play an important role in deciding its dominance over other caste groupings. By all counts, Jat Sikhs in Punjab and Jats in Haryana are clearly dominant caste and even if a ritually higher caste lives in the area dominated by them, they are socially and economically backward.

So what prompted the tottering UPA-led Central Government to take a call on Jat reservation at the end if 2013? You guessed it right — votebank politics and general election in a few weeks. After getting a severe drubbing in four States which went for Assembly polls, what else could a beleaguered Congress do? Two of the States which saw one of the worst Congress defeats in years — Delhi and Rajasthan — have a sizeable Jat population as well, prompting the decision.

When votes are difficult to get and a defeat is looming large, why not try the reservation formula which has been milked to the hilt in the last — almost — quarter of a century since Mandal Commission was implemented by the VP Singh Government. But does the UPA realise that the reservation issue has been milked for so long, it yields no electoral dividends and the law of diminishing return applies to it. Union Minister Manish Tewari says this should not be seen from the prism of elections. But then will he ever accept if any policy, any decision of the Government is dictated by elections?

The Union Cabinet recommended to the National Backward Class Commission (NBCC) that they take a call at the earliest on demands from 9 States that have sought OBC reservation. Interestingly, the same NBCC had earlier rejected the call for giving OBC status to the Jats saying it did not find any merit in the argument. Some political Machiavelli obviously told the Congress leadership which in turn told the Prime Minister that the farming community of Jats has a strong presence in several north Indian States and they would vote for the party if given OBC status on the eve of elections. As NBCC had earlier rejected the demand, the Cabinet promptly approved a new methodology to collect statistics about Jats, which will be used to convince the Commission that the community be given reservation as they are indeed backward.

But referring the decision to the NBCC is not the last one has heard of the contentious issue even though OBC status in Government jobs and educational institutions is a matter of time for the Jats. The agitation against Mandal Commission recommendation was prolonged and apolitical. But when the Union Cabinet takes a political decision, it is bound to reap the bitter harvest too as resentment is brewing, particularly in Punjab.

Capt Amarinder Singh has written to the PM saying that it should be extended to Punjab and religion should not be the criteria for denying Jat Sikhs OBC benefits. Describing Centre’s move in nine States as “unfair and discriminatory,” the Captain wants the PM to extend it to Punjab and three other States. He is yet to hear from the Prime Minister, who hails from the same State even though his letter is harsh. “This is arbitrary and will be viewed as a partisan attitude,” he said. His Congress counterparts in the State are talking in different voices but are saying that rich Jats in Punjab like the Badal family do not need reservation and it should be on the basis of economic criteria.

The radical elements amongst the Sikhs have jumped the political bandwagon opposing reservation on the basis of caste saying this would perpetuate the caste system which is against Sikh tenets. Asserting that Sikh society is casteless, they say reservation should be based upon economic criteria rather than caste.

If this issue could be milked in Punjab, then what on earth can prevent it being exploited for political ends in Jammu & Kashmir? Former Union Minister and president J&K Pradesh Congress Committee (JKPCC) Saifuddin Soz sought inclusion of Jats of the State within the OBC category. Capt Amarinder has already made it clear that religion should not be the criteria asking for OBC status for both Jat Sikhs and Jat Muslims.

But the larger question is that when the size of the cake is not increasing, bringing more castes in the ambit of reservation is only making the slices of the cake smaller. Government jobs are shrinking and even educational opportunity in Government sector is not growing as compared to the private sector. So whom and why are you pleasing someone by bringing one caste or the other in the OBC category. Why don’t you tell those demanding OBC category that benefit, if any, is only notional and this would not translate into upliftment of the community even by a degree. But then, Congress only followed what VP Singh did over two decades ago — surrender to symbolism, populism and the diktats of votebank politics rather than the grassroot sociological reality. (December 30, 2013)

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/more-castes-under-obc-an-exercise-in-futility.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/2013-12-30-35216.html

Congress stares at a double digit figure

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

After the thrashing which Congress got in semi-finals before the big battle of 2014, dust seems to have somewhat settled down and given time to the grand old party to redraw its strategy.

An overhaul of the AICC is on cards with several Ministers expected to join the organisation to give it a push ahead of Lok Sabha elections. Union Environment Minister Jayanthi Natarajan was only the first to resign. In any case, there is hardly anything left to do in the Government now given its short span and Ministers are rushing to the organisation and 24 Akbar Road to be a part of the so called “Team Rahul”. The Congress Vice-President could well be officially announced the prime ministerial candidate of the party in the New Year to counter Narendra Modi and to bring some energy in the party workers. Obviously voters would hardly be energised by that as they have seen enough of Rahul’s speeches and monologue over a period of time without much visible effect.

Party chiefs in Delhi and Chhattisgarh have been summarily removed while in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, Congress does not know who to blame but nevertheless is set to overhaul its organisation to take on an ever growing BJP. In fact, the defeats in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have been so massive that the party is yet to introspect into the reasons and take corrective measures. Some in Congress are already talking about the disaster in the waiting — party drawing blank in Rajasthan, which looks a possibility at this juncture given the gloomy performance and seats it got in the Assembly polls.

It is almost certain that the States which went for Assembly polls — Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi — would hand out almost a similar verdict in the Lok Sabha polls. The voting pattern in the 2008 Assembly polls and the 2009 Lok Sabha polls was almost similar in these States and there is no reason to believe that it would be different this time round. This means Congress would be limited to less than 20 seats while BJP’s tally could cross the 50 mark from these four States sending 72 members to the Lok Sabha. This would be a remarkable jump from the tally of 29 it had in the 2009 polls.

As these four States are expected to give a dressing down to the grand old party, the focus has to be elsewhere, in the other big States. Even the party strategists have written off these States even though some changes in organisation here and there would end status quoism and defeatist tendency and bring in an element of optimism.

No wonder, drawing board managers of Congress are looking at Bihar as a “big hope” for UPA this time with a grand alliance of Congress, RJD, LJP, NCP and CPI(ML) on the cards and expected to take BJP and JDU separately. For the first time in almost two decades, BJP and JDU (earlier Samta Party) would be fighting each other and also the RJD led grand alliance. This itself has given hopes to convicted Lalu Prasad Yadav who himself can no longer fight an election or hold an office. Given the ground realities in the state which sends 40 members to the Lok Sabha, even if such an alliance materialises, the fight seems to be between JDU and BJP in most parts of the State except in certain isolated pockets. Optimism of Congress that an alliance and contesting on 10 seats would help its cause has severe limitations. The alliance has nothing new to offer and would merely be a caste conglomeration — something which has been repeatedly rejected by the people of the State. It is clearly a battle between two Ns — Nitish Kumar versus Narendra Modi — in the State with Lalu Prasad trying to don the boxing gloves and put his hands in the ring from a distance. Also, Lalu’s alliance with Congress will give sufficient fodder not only to BJP but also to the fledgling Aam Aadmi Party which has been trying to make corruption an election plank.

Picture for Congress looks gloomy in Uttar Pradesh as well, the home State of Congress President and Vice-President. Even if you do not take into account the party losing seven of the 10 Assembly seats from Amethi and Raebareli, represented by Rahul and Sonia respectively in the February 2012 Assembly polls, the fact that Rahul failed badly in the polls and there is no family magic in the State still haunt old-time Congress workers. Rahul led from the front, addressed dozens of rallies, overhauled the Congress structure, selected candidates, made important decision but managed to get just around two dozen seats in the State.

That perhaps remains the biggest failure of Rahul in his home State. If anyone thinks that since then the party has moved forward and improved drastically in the Lok Sabha polls, he would only be doing this at the cost of his credibility.

Even the most diehard Congress supporter would be looking at a single digit figure in the State which sent 22 members of the party in the 2009 polls. Given the electoral mood, this single digit could even be limited to two seats — Amethi and Raebareli with a surprise or two thrown from elsewhere in the vast State.

So which is the State where Congress will get seats in the double digit? Of course, in the Telangana region, the party is expected to do well as it showed belated seriousness in carving out a separate State. But again TRS would be there to share the honours and even here, alone Congress would not touch double digit though in alliance with TRS, it could sweep the polls given the regional dynamics and the strong demand for separate State being met. In Karnataka, Congress is the ruling party and this could perhaps be the only State from where Congress figures could be in the double digit.

Beyond this, Congress would be struggling hard to get into the double digit figure from any State. In Maharashtra, the fatigue factor and multiple anti-incumbency of the Central as well as the State Government has set in and it would be difficult for Congress to touch the figure of 10 this time. Gujarat’s son of soil Narendra Modi is the prime ministerial candidate of BJP and that would restrict Congress in the State this time even though the party has been in the double digit all these years even in the heydays of Modi. 

In Tamil Nadu, Congress has no alliance partner and has no hope. In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee is still going strong and there are no signs that she will go back to Congress fold again. In Odisha, Naveen Patnaik signed the death warrant of Congress over a decade back and the party is as good as finished. In Haryana, Aam Aadmi Party is threatening to repeat the performance of Delhi and the lacklustre performance of the State Government in the second tenure has only worsened the scenario.

Law of diminishing returns could also be seen in Punjab, the home State of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh where the party would struggle to cross the half dozen mark. Of course, if the Prime Minister contests from his home State, the story could be slightly different. But Singh prefers the Rajya Sabha route after burning his fingers badly from South Delhi over a decade back. So where are the numbers coming from to make Congress cross double digit in the Lok Sabha polls of 2014? Well, that is the million dollar question. (December 23, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/2013-12-22-34328.html

 http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/congress-stares-at-a-double-digit-figure.html

AAP treating Delhi polls as College elections

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Perhaps Delhi would soon go in history books as the only state in the post emergency period where the clamour is to occupy the Opposition benches and avoid the treasury benches at all costs. I have not seen a state in recent memory where no one wants to form the government for the simple reason that being in Opposition is expected to pay bigger dividends than being in government.

Refusal to form the government in the national Capital by both BJP and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has strengthened the perception that both the parties treated the polls merely as an experiment to see their respective strength. The perception that the results are now being used as an excuse by AAP to flex its ideological muscle ahead of the Lok Sabha elections has also gained strength.

Of course, BJP cannot form the government as Congress can never support it nor will it ever in the next half a century anywhere in the country. AAP has also refused to support BJP even though both parties gained from the anti-Congress mood in the national Capital as the mandate was primarily for the parties diametrically opposed to the ruling Congress in the state as well as the Centre.

Coming to the possibilities, for BJP, there was only one option—form a minority government with 32 MLAs it has with Akali Dal and ensure absence of a few legislators of AAP at the time of trial of strength in the Assembly. Later on, it could have got a few MLAs to resign and then get them reelected on BJP symbol later on. It has been done in the past in other states and the practice is quite common in the old style of politics followed both by BJP and Congress.  But that is easier said than done in the national Capital as all eyes would be on the absentee legislators and TV cameras and sting operations would trace them to their hospital beds and foreign locations easily. After all, Delhi is not a remote state where no one is bothered about the political machinations to form government.

Obviously, central leadership of BJP would never take the risk before a high voltage Lok Sabha polls in which political corruption and acts of omission and commission have emerged as key issues. Moreover, having known Dr Harsh Vardhan, the chief ministerial candidate of BJP, I am sure he would never allow this. He is clearly not a Yeddyurappa in Karnataka. BJP has been in the Opposition in Delhi for the last 15 years and has developed a habit of donning the Opposition benches. It can wait and watch for another six months and this makes better political sense. If the result of the re-polls in the assembly is similar even after the Lok Sabha polls, I am sure BJP would explore all possible opportunity to form a government six months down the line.

But for AAP, forming government is extremely easy. Congress offered unconditional support going to the extent of giving a letter to the Delhi Lt Governor and there would have been no difficulty for the young party in assuming power in the Players Building, the headquarters of the state government. After all AAP fought elections with a manifesto, a vision for Delhi and could have tried to implement that with the outside support of Congress. If Congress tries to arm twist it at any point of time, it can easily blame the party, come out of government and force another election. That could have further discredited the Congress and brought sympathy for AAP. But AAP is shy of doing this and the reasons being cited are politically too shallow.

Not Only Congress, even BJP offered to support AAP, which was outrightly rejected again. No one can argue against the fact that in the national Capital, this was a mandate against Congress. Most of those who voted with a vengeance against the Congress in Delhi are now asking why both BJP and AAP can’t coordinate with each other to form a mechanism for a Common Minimum Programme. Some are suggesting that both can have a shot at power for two and a half years each on the basis of the CMP and the background of an anti Congress mandate. If this were not acceptable, BJP in any case is willing to give support to AAP.

Obviously, for Arvind Kejriwal sitting in Delhi Assembly and becoming the chief minister is not the ultimate option. Tasting success in his very first electoral outing, Kejriwal and AAP have now vision fixed higher, much higher. For them, assembly result of Delhi is a launching pad for bigger things in politics. That perhaps explains the stubborn attitude.

Much has been written on the stunning performance of AAP in Delhi Assembly polls. Fortunately or unfortunately, it did not participate in the assembly polls of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh or Mizoram so no one knows its strength or weakness beyond the borders of Delhi. Whether the fledgling party is an anarchist or one with a revolutionary idea which can forever change politics, only a stint at governance would tell. We cannot judge AAP on its intentions however noble it may be, on its manifesto however ideal or lofty it may be or on the newly elected MLAs and their humble background. Its idealism, plans and anti corruption agenda can be tested only from the Treasury Benches of the legislature and not the Opposition benches.

Now, Kejriwal has sought 10 days time from the LG to think about forming government with the support of Congress. He has written to the Presidents of both BJP and Congress seeking their clarifications on 18 points. Come on Mr Kejriwal. You are in serious electoral politics and not in a TV debate; do not make it an instrument for your convenience. When President’s rule is imposed in Delhi, people would only blame you for your intransigent approach.  After all President’s rule is simply Congress rule by proxy as LG has been appointed by the Congress regime in the Centre and he will rule Delhi all this while. Though he will never do it, what if the LG appoints the defeated Sheila Dikshit as one of his Advisors to rule Delhi? No one can prevent him from doing so. 

AAP of course is making spacious arguments not to come to power at all costs before the Lok Sabha polls. It should remember that the level of discussion should not be the one which is held in college canteen as the issue is not of a College union election but pertains to a serious issue of formation of government. Its approach is clearly forcing an election along with the parliamentary polls in May next year. At this juncture, it is difficult to say whether AAP is one election wonder as BJP and Congress would like to believe or it would continue to impress the people and become a harbinger of change.  But one thing is certain. There will be voter fatigue when assembly elections are forced on them within six months. They may go for a decisive mandate and that could be either BJP or AAP. If polls are held along with parliamentary polls, national issues will dominate electoral mind and this is bound to affect the prospects of the fledgling AAP. (December 16, 2013)

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/aap-treating-delhi-polls-as-college-elections.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/2013-12-15-33417.html

Assembly results: Anti-Cong wave builds up

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

An anti-Congress wave seems to have engulfed parts of North and Central India. Coming five months before the Lok Sabha polls, there seems to be ominous signs for the grand old party.

Given the outcome in four States which together send 72 members to the Lok Sabha, the big picture looks extremely worrisome for the Congress. For a journalist, it is difficult to take a position on the outcome of a poll. But coming as it is just before the Lok Sabha polls, I can now vouch for the fact that only a miracle can now help Congress come to power for the third time in a row. And miracles do not happen in electoral politics.

Sometime ago, I had written in these columns that the results would indicate which way the political wind is blowing. Indeed it has. In the 2009 polls, Congress had a distinct edge, getting 41 members elected from these States while the BJP had to be content with only 29 seats. Clearly, percentage wise the size of Congress victory and its margin over BJP in these four States was more or less similar to the one it had at the national level where it formed the Government.

An analysis of the outcome in the Assembly polls in these four States would suggest that in 2014 polls, BJP could easily cross the figure of 45 from these four States and would be slightly less than 50. The size of its victory in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh is quite big and it would reflect in the Lok Sabha results as well. That would be of tremendous help to the party as it desperately seeks more numbers from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh to make Narendra Modi the Prime Minister in place of Manmohan Singh.

A quick analysis of the results of the Assembly polls will give BJP 22 seats in Rajasthan, five seats each in Chhattisgarh and Delhi and 17 seats in Madhya Pradesh which takes the tally to an impressive 49. This is 20 seats more than 29 it got in the 2009 polls. Obviously, all this would add up to the numbers when UPA and NDA sit together and do the arithmetic after the results of 2014 are out in May.

Even if we do not look at the Assembly results from the prism of the bigger battle to be fought in a few weeks from now, the outcome could perhaps be a watershed in Indian politics. After a decade and a half, Congress lost the polls in a tsunami which blew Delhi apart. The numbers of the anti-Congress votes, including both BJP and Aam Aadmi Party, was too high for the party to even pose a semblance of fight.

The result of Delhi is significant as it is not a state which sends merely 7 MPs to the Lok Sabha but indicates a trend in the urban areas of the country. In the 2009 polls, the urban areas of the country, voted for the Congress in a big way and this included Delhi also. Now, the tide seems to have reversed. Delhi shows how urban India is extremely angry and disappointed with Congress.

Of course, AAP has done remarkably well and pushed Congress to a distant third position. This shows how the youth of the Capital are disappointed with the existing system of governance and want an overhaul. But given the fact that AAP has little or no presence outside Delhi and has little time to prepare for the Lok Sabha polls, the votes of this section (potential AAP supporters) could well go into the kitty of Narendra Modi. The Gujarat Chief Minister could get votes of the youth, anti-establishment sections and what are called the floating or non committed voters as he has taken the same posturing and position vis-à-vis the Congress which Arvind Kejriwal had done in Delhi. Opinion polls have already indicated that the section which wants Kejriwal as the chief minister of Delhi also wants Modi as the Prime Minister.

For the last over a decade, Congress had a firm grip on Delhi. For the first time, some of its staunchest supporters — people in unauthorised colonies, JJ colonies and areas in East and Outer Delhi voted overwhelmingly against it. This indicates how strong the wave was and it was largely due to multiple anti-incumbency, corruption at high level both in Delhi and Central Governments, Commonwealth Games fiasco, inflation and of course the acts of omission and commission of Central Government. The message of Delhi is loud and clear for the rest of the country as well.

Madhya Pradesh is another case study. I do not know how badly Congress leader and the then chief minister Digvijay Singh ruled Madhya Pradesh that the state has now completely gone out of its control. Perhaps in their inner party introspection, the party should ask Digvijay Singh what did he exactly do or did not do for 10 years which made people abhor his party.

Many think that Madhya Pradesh is going the Tamil Nadu or West Bengal way where Congress has been finished for good.

Chhattisgarh was a close call but BJP finally managed to get through convincingly in the end. But to do better in Lok Sabha polls, Raman Singh will also have to cater to the upwardly mobile sections also who are not bothered by government subsidies and freebies.  He should also look at the aspirations of those who want a better life, better infrastructure and better opportunities and if you do not address those, you run the risk of annoying them.

Similarly in Rajasthan, Ashok Gehlot emptied his coffers for several anti-poverty schemes. For the urban areas, he only focussed on Jaipur. But anti incumbency, lack of ideas of governance, lack of new schemes and also the prevailing undercurrent at the national level did him in. Even in 2008 assembly polls in Rajasthan Congress barely managed to touch the halfway mark of 100 through inducements. This time, eclipse was written all over when Congress went into campaign.

The lessons of 2013 are obvious. But 72 of the 545 seats in Lok Sabha can give you a broad idea not the actual result in a country as vast and demographically diverse as India. But what seems to be certain is that BJP is on an upswing and Congress has clearly lost the momentum. (December 9, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/2013-12-09-32662.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/assembly-results--anti-cong-wave-builds-up.html

Glorifying poverty will not pay electorally

  

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

I am, sometimes, surprised at the way a crime story involving a high-profile individual dominates national discourse at a time when elections are barely a few weeks away. But it did. The Tarun Tejpal story folded and unfolded all over the media ever since it broke out.

The arrest of Tejpal, his custodial interrogation and later judicial custody would obviously not be the end of the chapter. A lot has to be written about it and shown on television in the days and weeks to come and unless some another drastic and dramatic incident takes place, it will continue to hog the limelight for a while.

Was it a Peepli [Live] in front of us? Of course, it was. The way electronic channels went about the story was in a way deciding on your own what the viewers of news want. The print medium behaved more responsibly. A newspaper has 50 stories in a day and 2-4 were related to Tejpal and the victim. You could still get 45 other stories of your choice as well. But for the electronic channels, Tejpal was the most happening story. Even if you switched the channels, it was the same everywhere. Soon, you would see a movie being made on the subject. Please spare us from Tejpal now and do not threaten to inflict more of it on us.

The cacophony would perhaps be drowned by next Sunday when results of all the five States — Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram would be out. The first four would determine the course of national discourse in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections in April next year. Those who are not bothered about the fate of Tejpal and whether he did or did not do what he is accused of and what Rajesh and Nupur Talwar are doing in Dasna Jail of Ghaziabad district, are obviously talking about the polls and what kind of mandate would it be.

I travelled to a few places in the last two weeks, talked to people on the streets, eating joints, people in courts and banks, villages and the train and found that in the politically conscious Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, it is the score-line for the Assembly polls, which is being talked about. The “saffron fundamentalists” see it as a 4-0 wave in favour of BJP, while the “secular fundamentalists” see the score-line as 2-0, giving Delhi and Chhattisgarh to Congress. They also argue that with a little effort, even Rajasthan would be in Congress bag the way the State has taken a “pro-poverty” line and implemented a host of welfare schemes.

There is nothing to add to the debate at this juncture as most of the people have already taken a call and they would not get influenced at this point of time. But the results would definitely point out whether the country wants a policy based on glorifying poverty or one based on aspirations and economic ideas which can propel the States going to polls and the country forward.

There is a lot of common between Congress and BJP in at least two States where both of them are ruling — Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. You will be surprised at this but the fact is that in both the States, both Congress and BJP are into glorifying and celebrating poverty.

In Chhattisgarh, BJP Government is banking heavily on its reform and systemic changes in providing food to the poor for coming back to power for the third time while in Rajasthan, Congress Government has given all it could to the have-nots from the finances of the State in an apparent attempt to come back to power again. In both States, the policies of the two parties have not touched the aspirational sections — those who do not need merely food, 100 days of employment, free healthcare in the ramshackle primary health centre and free education in schools where the teachers just mark their attendance for taking salary and not for teaching.

In both Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, those who have just made it to the middle class after hard work have nothing for them from the Government. Also, those who have just graduated in the lower middle class segment and are just above the official definition and categorisation of poverty line, have nowhere to go. Why only Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh? Most of the States have similar policies on food and development making it difficult to distinguish one from the other on the basis of policies and programmes.

I think this is where BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi offers hope to the aspiring sections of the population and those who want to graduate from a lower one socio-economic categorisation to a higher one. The so-called Gujarat model of development can never be replicated in rest of the country nor is it desirable, but catering to the needs, aspirations and desire of the people to move a step ahead in the social and economic ladder would surely do. Modi is targeting this section, which has got tired of the political establishment celebrating poverty and developing a permanent interest in keeping a section always below the poverty line.

Competitive politics of populism has forced both BJP and Congress besides the regional parties to celebrate poverty. I wonder what would they do a decade or two down the line when the numbers of those below poverty line is abysmally low and they would no longer remain a captive votebank for food and welfare politics. Why do they abhor those who want English education, better employment in new industries, migration to cities for opportunities, want to work at call centres in cities or in the sunrise industries, want a smartphone and access to computers? Why not act as facilitators rather than putting obstacles in front of them? 

Left out by the Nitish Kumars, Akhilesh Yadavs, Ashok Gehlots and Raman Singhs, this section is perhaps rooting for Modi who may or may not act the way he is sounding in the election campaign. But at least there is hope for them that things could be better and different. In hope lies the dynamics of change. (December 2, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/glorifying-poverty-will-not-pay-electorally.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/2013-12-01-31745.html

Battle for Delhi: Grandma versus Doctor Sahab

  

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Delhi promises to be a cliffhanger for the two main parties in the fray — BJP and Congress and whoever hits the six on the last ball may have a control on the legislative Assembly of the national Capital. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is being hyped and at best could be a spoiler for the two parties, getting support of may be a section of the youth and the non-committed BJP and Congress votes.

After having covered Delhi as a journalist for over a decade, writing on and observing the political trends, I always found the city rather non-political in nature.

Unlike States like Bihar, West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and others where everyone preoccupation is politics, the average person in Delhi is least interested in the person who is going to sit in the Chief Minister’s office in Player’s Building, a tastefully done up highrise near ITO on the banks of the Yamuna.

In fact, people in Delhi are more interested in crime which is happening in their neighbourhood, public transport system which they use every day, drinking water and other aspects which affect their day-to-day activities rather than the political scenario at the local level. They are least bothered who is providing them and take it for granted that the quality of life will be good in these parameters.

The reason is simple. Majority of the people who inhabit Delhi now are migrants, have come to Delhi for economic opportunities and the quality of life which the city provides. This tribe of migrants is increasing by a rapid pace, pushing those who consider themselves to be “original Delhiites” on the fringes as far as percentage of population is concerned.

Even Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit, hailing from Punjab and contesting elections in UP, came to Delhi for political opportunity after having lost successive elections from Kannauj and even from East Delhi once. In a bid to cut to size old style leaders like HKL Bhagat and Sajjan Kumar, she was made the State Congress president and when onion prices hit the roof and severe infighting broke out in the ruling BJP, she won and became the Chief Minister for the first time in December 1998.

It is now 15 years for Dikshit, once a close confidante of the Gandhi family. Over the years, she has lost her clout with the first family of the Congress and vice-president Rahul Gandhi. But as the party cannot do without her grandmotherly, urban, suave and English speaking face and there was hardly any alternative except Ajay Maken, she continued with the job and now has the distinction of being the longest-serving Congress Chief Minister of any State.

But now it seems, her golden days are behind her. She has lost her charm, promoted dynastic politics like most in Congress in her son Sandeep, there is voter fatigue, corruption during Commonwealth Games, prices of onions, inflation and acts of omission and commission of the Central Government to haunt her during this battle.

The fact that Narendra Modi has addressed well-attended rallies in the Capital while those of Rahul saw an indifferent and sparse crowd could indicate the way political wind is blowing in the national Capital. Dikshit may have cleverly manipulated the delimitation exercise of the Assembly constituencies to suit Congress but it may not help beyond a point.

I have many anecdotes of Dikshit as a journalist. I will narrate only one. Once after a Press conference to mark her nine years as the Chief Minister, I found nothing much to write about.

Sipping coffee and thinking what to write after the conference was over, I saw Dikshit approaching me and another journalist. I asked her hadn’t she got bored with the same job for nine years. Spontaneously she said, “Yes, I have got bored.” She soon realised that this could be construed otherwise and her opponents in the party would target her. As an afterthought, she added later that “there are new challenges every day.” But I had got my headline. “Sheila Dikshit is bored of being CM”. The publication I was working with then bore the brunt of her anger after the news story was published and its advertisement was stopped for a few weeks. That is one facet of Dikshit who knows how to silence her critics.

Dikshit’s main rival Harsh Vardhan is different and is the aam aadmi (common man) of Delhi politics. He was the in-charge of BJP Haryana earlier and often visited Chandigarh in that capacity where I interacted with him. I have an anecdote with the BJP’s chief ministerial candidate as well.

Harsh Vardhan invited me for dinner at a five-star hotel in Central Delhi when he was the president of Delhi BJP to talk about politics, Delhi and the State of the party.

The moment I joined him after the day’s work, I told him frankly that his choice of a five-star hotel for dinner was unlike any politician from the RSS-BJP who would prefer to offer only chai-samosa to showcase their so-called simplicity.

“I am an ENT doctor in Krishna Nagar till afternoon and then the president of Delhi BJP for the remaining part of the day. I earn enough to afford a dinner at a five-star hotel from my private practice once in a while and invite a guest as well,” he told me.

The BJP could not have made a better choice than the non-controversial and simple ENT doctor as the chief ministerial candidate. He seems to be more than a match for Dikshit in getting the solid middle class votes.

Also, he hails from East Delhi, the area which has a huge density of population which if translated into votes, help the party and finally Harsh Vardhan to occupy the third floor spacious office in Player’s Building, which Dikshit has decorated beautifully with artwork and expensive paintings.

Arvind Kejriwal is the outsider in the race and it is early days for AAP in politics. Opinion polls do suggest that he would get a good number of seats and the percentage of votes would be in double digits. But I feel, he could have sympathisers in the upmarket areas of the city — New Delhi and parts of South Delhi. But this section hardly comes out to vote on polling day. Kejriwal and his party’s presence in the unauthorised colonies, JJ colonies, villages and the Outer Delhi areas are still limited.

What seems to be certain is that the margin of victory of either the BJP or Congress would be wafer thin. I would not place my money on either Dikshit or Harsh Vardhan given the fact that in Delhi opinions change overnight in this city. But given the dynamism of city politics, it seems the soft-spoken doctor has an edge.

As AAP is an untested electoral commodity, it has worked on the nerves of both the parties and could perhaps decide the winner in a closely contested battle. What is certain is that AAP will cut into the votes of both the parties, whichever party suffers the maximum damage by Kejriwal and company, would have to sit out.  (November 24, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/2013-11-25-30892.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/battle-for-delhi-grandma-versus-doctor-sahab.html

‘Tea seller’ Modi’s wave outshines Rahul Gandhi

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

The entire week and the month, people of the country were obsessed with cricket legend Sachin Tendukar’s last Test match and the kind of farewell and honour of Bharat Ratna he got after his last international match.

This was of course on expected lines in the cricket crazy nation. Cricket and politics remain the favourite pastime of the county and if you add films to it, the list gets exhausted for most of us. As Tendulkar finally left the cricket field after a career spanning almost two-and-a-half decades, the spotlight has shifted back to politics where BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is locked in a bitter war of words with Rahul Gandhi, the undeclared PM candidate of the Congress.

What is problematic for Rahul is the fact that he has not seen life beyond power in the last almost a decade ever since he joined active politics as a MP from Amethi. This is hampering his campaign and issues he is raising. He is used to a position of power from where he can dictate his terms even to the Prime Minister. The Government had to take back its Ordinance on convicted leaders after Rahul’s intervention. This is enjoying real, unbridled power. People find his rhetoric championing the cause of the poor bereft of substance due to his elitist upbringing and belonging to a dynasty which has been in prominence for a century in this country. There was an Internet chain mail, which proclaimed that no one from the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty has worked for a living for the last 100 years. Gandhi tried to change this perception but this boomeranged. This image cannot be shed by eating in a dalit household once in Uttar Pradesh or using the name of Kalawati, only to forget her completely. He did not show any seriousness towards their cause once the photo-op and news-op was over.

Modi, on the other hand, is projecting himself as the underdog (a tea seller, from a poor family etc). Ironically, this is the very section the scion of the Gandhi-Nehru family is trying to woo courtesy the Right to Food Bill, Land Acquisition Bill etc. But no one is buying the argument of the Congress and they are rightly asking questions to Gandhi.  Tell us first what you did in the last decade of governance? Tell us the reasons why should we vote for you this time round also? Tell us what different would you do in 2014 if voted to power again? These are the questions and issues where Rahul and his party are left fending for proper answers.

Sitting on the fence as an observer, I sometimes feel that life is indeed difficult for a politician in power. There is so much of ammunition to fire at those in power that it is indeed extremely difficult to answer all those queries. This is perhaps anti-incumbency troubling both Rahul and his party. And if this anti-incumbency is there for 10 years when the level of expectation is very high, it is a sign of trouble. 

On the other hand, political life is trouble free for those in Opposition. BJP does not have to answer for price rise, inflation, national security, foreign policy issues, unemployment, recession, corruption, scams etc. Recall the golden days of the Opposition when an eloquent Atal Bihari Vajpayee used to target the then Congress Governments with his wit and humour, both inside and outside the Parliament.

As the campaign for 2014 unfolds, Modi is not facing the same handicap which perhaps Rahul is facing. The Congress vice-president simply cannot answer the acts of omission and commission which his government did in the last almost a decade. No one can do when a mediocre government only worked for short term goals rather than concrete long term measures.

Modi knows how to play to the gallery. He has learnt the art from Vajpayee and other Sangh stalwarts and BJP leaders. He knows how and where to target and this perhaps established a chord with a section of the new voters. Being in the opposition at the national level has only helped his cause. His party was in power almost a decade ago and he is not supposed to answer for this alleged sins. Being the Chief Minister of Gujarat has helped as he has to showcase the achievements of a state which was already developed in most of the parameters. All you had to do was to improve upon those parameters. Everyone in the country knows that you cannot replicate the so called Gujarat model in Bihar or West Bengal nor is it possible. But Modi has definitely managed to sell a dream to the people.

It seems people have seen enough of Rahul in his last two terms as MP and his USP has worn out. He was AICC General Secretary in-charge of Youth Congress and NSUI. Nothing dramatic happened to these organisations nor did they become dynamic under his stewardship. He spoke of democratisation and elections in the youth wings, this happened in a limited way but the hypocrisy was exposed when parent Congress remained the way it was. Rahul also spoke of dynasty, patronage and money in politics. This malaise is more widespread in Congress itself than BJP. So all those ideas and principles for which Gandhi stood for has collapsed in front of him. 

Modi is a dream seller. It has been a meteoric rise for him — from a tea vendor to a lowly RSS pracharak to the charioteer of LK Advani’s rathyatra and backroom boy of the BJP on Ashoka Road. Then it was the post of Gujarat Chief Minister and now the prime ministerial candidate of the party. Modi wants to show to the people that through sheer hard work, he has risen to the position of eminence and has traversed a long but difficult path. Contrarily, Rahul got everything on a platter and could not even manage what he had on the platter and spilled it out. This is being sold to the voters and they seem to be purchasing the idea. (November 18, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/2013-11-17-30094.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/2013-11-25-30892.html

Battle in the Gangetic belt of UP and Bihar

  

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

As the battle for 2014 unfolds, the bitterest battle would perhaps be fought in the Gangetic belt of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

The prevalent electoral mood in these States seems to be similar to what existed in the post Babri Masjid demolition days — combination of anti-incumbency and polarised voters, something which helped catapult BJP to power then.

At the grassroots level, polarisation is taking place gradually but surely ahead of the polls. Ask any politician who moves about in his constituency in these two States and they will tell you that polarisation is indeed there and this is taking place after a decade-and-a-half.

Communal trouble in parts of north and central Bihar early this year, large-scale violence in Muzaffarnagar in Uttar Pradesh and serial bomb blasts in Patna at the time of Narendra Modi’s rally may be the prime factors for increased polarisation. Pollsters would say that when polarisation takes place, issues of development or non- development, governance, performance and even caste identity, which is a hallmark of the two States, takes a backseat. The main political parties of UP and Bihar —Congress, Samajwadi Party, BSP, JD(U) and RJD — would argue that BJP Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi himself is a polarising figure given his track record in Gujarat and this was bound to happen. But I see this differently. Take for example Uttar Pradesh, which was first ruled by BSP for five years and then by the Samajwadi Party for the last one-and-a-half years. Ask even the staunchest of SP supporter what the party has done after promising so much when Akhilesh Yadav became Chief Minister and they would stare at you blankly, not knowing what to say. Known for firing at the Kar Sewaks in the heydays of the Ram Janmabhoomi-Babri Masjid dispute, the same Samajwadi Party simply failed to do anything to check raging communal violence in Muzaffarnagar. Can the Government answer a simple question as to what did the administration do when large-scale violence was taking place and people from both communities were being killed?

In fact, the SP Government failed not once but repeatedly. So much so that violence in Muzaffarnagar has taken a cyclic form and taking place every now and then, even when this column was being written. I was talking to a friend who happens to be a Muslim, now settled in the United States as a Law academic. He argued that failure of the State Government was “deliberate” so that Muslims in rest of Uttar Pradesh would be gripped by fear psychosis and vote for the ruling party in the Lok Sabha polls so that its chief Mulayam Singh Yadav has some chance of putting his hat in the ring when there is a hung House next year and a motley bunch of the so called Third Front comes into the picture. I am not sure about the fairness of the argument but definitely surprised how communal violence can still take place in this era and cannot be controlled when battalions of paramilitary forces and Army can be moved anywhere in the country within two-three hours. If a major communal violence does not lead to polarisation, then what else will in a State which is far away from 100 per cent literacy? In such a polarised situation, obviously the BJP would benefit. More so, as Modi is the Prime Ministerial candidate and Amit Shah is the General Secretary in-charge of the biggest State.

Besides polarisation, what is working in favour of BJP in UP is the poor performance of three parties — Congress, BSP and SP — over the last decade or so. People of UP gave Congress over one-fourth of the seats in 2009 polls but they didn’t see anything positive happening to them or for that matter in the country. They trusted BSP for five years, gave it reasonable seats in Lok Sabha polls as well but Mayawati continued with the decades-old politics of patronage and money. When SP showed hope in the form of the young Akhilesh Yadav in 2012, they again voted for him, only to be betrayed as the Government proved to be worse than that its predecessor BSP. So here, the TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor could be working for BJP. It remains the only party which has not been tried-and-tested for the last 10 years. Fed up with the style of Congress, BSP and SP, the floating votes and the new voters could be considering it even if they have nothing to do with polarisation and are least affected by it.

In Bihar after the JD(U) broke up its 17-year-old alliance with BJP, communal trouble took place in Bettiah and in Nawada in August this year. But unlike the SP Government in UP, the Nitish Kumar Government checked these with an iron hand and did not allow the situation to flare up. Kumar, however, bungled subsequently when his administration and security establishment did not make foolproof arrangement for Modi’s Hunkar Rally in Patna’s Gandhi Maidan. The serial bomb blasts which killed Modi’s supporters vitiated the atmosphere and now has led to polarisation. What made matters worse and further polarised the situation was the Asthi Kalash Yatra of the BJP. Modi again came back to Bihar to meet the victims of the blast and undoubtedly, the entire sequence of events from the rally, to the blasts, the Asthi Kalash Yatra and Modi’s visit led to division on communal lines. Only the poll results would show to what extent this has taken place but the events and circumstances point to it.

Apart from the polarising factors in Bihar, politics there has taken a U-turn in recent months. The RJD chief Lalu Prasad is back in jail as a convict in the fodder scam and his Muslim-Yadav combine, assiduously built for over two decades, is on the verge of collapse. While Muslims have started the process of shifting to JD(U), a section of the Yadavs are looking for new political opportunity outside RJD, in BJP. Moreover, after the end of JD(U)-BJP alliance, the Nitish Kumar-led party is now bereft of a solid support base in terms of caste or social dominance. So, 2014 would be, in a way a churning of the political process in Bihar where caste, religion, social base and a host of micro factors would all play a role to decide the winner. In such a situation, polarisation helps and this is what goes in favour of the BJP at this juncture. With UP and Bihar sending 120 members to the Lok Sabha and polarisation taking place just ahead of polls, besides the shoddy performance of the two State Governments and the rival contenders over the months and years, BJP is smiling. Some of the party leaders with whom I spoke to are pegging the figure at 60 in both the States. But they argue that with still a few months to go for the polls, the figures could go up. The SP, BSP, JD(U) and RJD vehemently deny any such formulation and the surge of BJP. But what they agree with the BJP is the scenario of Congress biting the dust in UP and being reduced to 3-4 seats from 22 it has in the present Lok Sabha and completely wiped out in Bihar if it does not enter into any alliance. (November 11, 2013) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/battle-in-the-gangetic-belt-of-uttar-pradesh-and-bihar.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/battle-in-the-gangetic-belt-of-up-and-bihar.html

BJP must respond to regional aspirations ahead of 2014

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

National Democratic Front (NDA) is alive and kicking. While the BJP is making rapid strides to bid for power in 2014, there was always a question mark on the allies which the NDA would have in the run-up to the polls and in the post poll arithmetic.

But the rally of Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) in Kurukshetra last week has allayed apprehensions of the regional parties about the big brotherly approach of BJP towards them. The party sent one of its Vice Presidents — Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi — to cement ties with the regional outfit even though no one expected it nor was it known in advance. The rally and unexpected participation of BJP was significant as it is more or less clear at this juncture that if the saffron party has the maximum support amongst the regional parties and gets close to 200 seats only then it would get the Prime Minister’s chair post 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

Some of the major constituents of NDA during Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s regime attended the rally to mark the birth centenary of Third Front veteran and former Deputy Prime Minister Chaudhary Devi Lal. Though it was organised by the INLD in the absence of jailed Om Prakash Chautala and his son Ajay Chautala, it gave enough indications that if BJP got close to power, it would not lack the support of new allies even if they do not enter into a pre-poll alliance.

The BJP and INLD parted ways in Haryana in 2009 on a bitter note before the Assembly polls. Ironically, even as they refused to stitch an alliance, there was hardly any major contentious issue except the perception of leaders of either parties on seat sharing and doubts about strength of each other in some constituencies. This proved to be political suicide for both the parties as Congress came to power again in the state despite getting only 40 of the 90 seats in the Assembly. Results indicated that had INLD and BJP fought together, they would have easily come to power in the State.

Now BJP has an alliance with Haryana Janhit Congress led by Kuldeep Bishnoi, a political marriage bereft of popular support, which has failed to take off on the ground. But after the Kurukshetra rally, leaders of BJP have given enough hints that even if a pre poll alliance does not take place with INLD, the Chautala led party would give unconditional support to NDA with whatever number it gets. Already Abhay Chautala, running the show in the absence of his jailed father and brother, has categorically said that his party would support Narendra Modi unconditionally. Moreover, Haryana Assembly elections are slated in November 2014 after the Lok Sabha polls and doors would be open for a three party grand Opposition alliance comprising of HJC, INLD and BJP — a formation which is bound to give sleepless nights to the ruling Congress.

In the rally, NDA veteran and Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal gave a clarion call for unity of all parties opposed to the Congress. At present, Akali Dal in Punjab and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra remain the only allies of NDA who have never parted ways with BJP and always supported it come what may. Badal, the Akali Dal patron who had strong bond not only with Chaudhary Devi Lal but also his son Om Prakash Chautala, harped on the theme of unity against the Congress. Not surprisingly, Telugu Desam Party, Asom Gana Parishad and RPI too were represented in the rally, indicating that political dynamics keeps changing and there could be fresh realignment of political forces before or after 2014 polls.

In Haryana, it is almost certain that BJP will not tie up with INLD in the Lok Sabha polls as the party has been tainted following the conviction of both the Chautalas in a corruption case pertaining to recruitment. Congress would undoubtedly leave no stone unturned to target BJP if an alliance comes through with INLD. Also, it will negate the charges of BJP against Congress on a series of scams in the UPA-II regime. But the message of Kurukshetra is different and has gone loud and wide — for BJP no party is untouchable against the Congress.

Ahead of the 2014 battle, this message would perhaps help BJP and NDA in the northern region, an area where it is quite weak and is heavily dependent on allies. The Northern States, comprising Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, UT of Chandigarh and Jammu and Kashmir has 34 seats and proved to be the nemesis for the NDA in the 2004 polls. Out of 34 seats in the last Lok Sabha elections, BJP on its own did badly due to its limited presence in the area getting merely 4 seats while along with Akali Dal, its alliance partner in Punjab, it got 8 seats in the entire region. This is less than 25 per cent and would not help its cause in the battle ahead.

In 2009, Congress swept the polls in Haryana getting 9 of the 10 seats and in Jammu and Kashmir with all the 6 seats in its kitty along with National Conference. Even in Punjab, Congress did well getting 8 of the 13 seats. An impressive performance in the region helped it form Government in the centre.

Except in Himachal Pradesh where it has always been a direct contest between BJP and Congress, in the rest of the states, the saffron party would have to depend on allies to get respectable numbers in 2014. The significance of Kurukshetra lies here with the perception that BJP has shed the big brotherly approach. If NDA improves its tally in Punjab from the present 5, retains at least half of the 4 seats in Himachal Pradesh, manages to get five of the 10 seats in Haryana with a zero base at this point, it would significantly add to its kitty.

In Jammu and Kashmir, National Conference would not switch over to the NDA as it is in alliance with Congress in the State Assembly but being responsive to the sensitivities of the Farooq and Omar Abdullah led party would help NDA in the long run and in  netting more allies when it reaches the crunch situation. Being responsive to allies and regional parties would help BJP get the grand post poll alliance, which was once the hallmark of the Vajpayee regime. Trinamool Congress, AIADMK, Biju Janata Dal, Telugu Desam Party, Telangana Rashtra Samiti, YSR Congress, INLD, Rashtriya Lok Dal, MNS in Maharashtra, possibly BSP in Uttar Pradesh and the regional parties of North East could be the hunting ground for the BJP. Meeting regional aspirations and appropriate response would be the key here. (November 5, 2013) 

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