Road to Delhi leads from Punjab

Punjab Assembly elections would be held at a time when the Manmohan Singh government has crossed the half way mark of its tenure and its outcome could well set the agenda of national politics in the remaining years of the UPA government.

Though Assembly polls are being held in five states – Punjab, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh Goa and Manipur, it will be Punjab and Uttarakhand which will set the tone for the 2014 general elections.

I will tell you why. In Uttar Pradesh, Congress is basically fighting for the third position despite the bravado of party General Secretary Rahul Gandhi and his intensive campaign in the state. It could be either the Samajwadi Party or the Bahujan Samaj Party occupying the first two positions while Congress will slug it out with the BJP for the third spot in the largest state of the country.

Goa with 1.2 million voters and Manipur with 1.7 million voters, both Congress ruled, are too small to determine the mood of the nation. More so, these are states where local factors and candidates are much more important than the parties they represent and the size of electorate is far too small to have any meaningful impact on national polity.

But Punjab and Uttarakhand results would have far ranging implications. Both are ruled by parties opposed to the Congress. While BJP is ruling Uttarakhand, in Punjab it is in power with its ally Akali Dal. In both these states, a back of the envelope calculation by a layman would suggest that Congress would win given the fact that there could be anti-incumbency and governments are supposed to be voted out every five years in these two states.

But what happens when Congress does not come back to power in both these states? Will the Lok Pal Bill fiasco in Parliament affect the chances of Congress? Will Anna Hazare have any impact in Punjab? Will issues of mega corruption like 2G scam and Commonwealth Games become a poll issue? These are the issues which is haunting the party now.

If Congress does not come to power in Punjab, it would be deemed that all these factors in addition to a lot more indeed played a role in its defeat. Congress would be on the defensive and would find it difficult to explain what led to the defeat in the first place where it was supposed to win. It will give a boost to the opposition momentum and they will keep pressing the accelerator paddle till the 2014 battle for New Delhi. The grand old party would be in an introspection mood as to what went wrong, where did it falter and how to redeem itself in the remaining tenure of Manmohan Singh.

On the other hand, if Congress is voted to power both in Punjab and Uttarakhand, it would not have much meaning at the national level as it was, in any case, expected to win the polls. Remember, Punjab has never returned the same government in the last over four decades and so has Uttarakhand ever since its formation. So the pressure is all the more on the Congress to win anyhow.

At this juncture, no one is sticking his neck out to assert the victory or defeat of either of the two – Congress and Akali Dal-BJP combine in Punjab. There is no wave or trend even a month before the polling which could indicate which way the wind is blowing. Most say that it is a touch and go situation where the contest would be even and the electioneering and campaign in the run-up to the polls would decide the eventual winner.

Congress had the momentum going after 40 rallies in all parts of the state against the ruling SAD-BJP combine. State party President Captain Amarinder Singh had adopted an aggressive posture and he was matching his Akali counterparts word by word in the verbal duel. However, as the election dates were announced, the race for tickets forced all the Congress ticket aspirants to huddle in Delhi to lobby with the high command for a party nomination. The leaders too are in the national Capital to get nominations for the maximum number of their supporters. The result is that for the last almost 10 days, Congress has deserted the battlefield and has stopped its campaign. Party leaders admit that the delay in announcement of tickets has been a setback and at least 10 crucial days of campaign have already been lost. Moreover, no one for sure knows when the first list of the party will come out. Till then, no Congress worker will venture out to campaign.

Clearly, the inherent contradictions, turf war between the leaders and factionalism has come to the fore at the time of ticket allocation. The seemingly unified face of the Punjab Congress is now witnessing cracks just when it matters the most. As and when the tickets are announced, there is bound to be more bickering, infighting and rebellions as has been the case earlier. Perhaps Congress is delaying its list fearing dissidence. But obviously you cannot win elections with such a negative strategy of closing your eyes in the face of imminent problem.

Akali Dal too has its own share of problems. One candidate who was given the party symbol has already been expelled by the party as he wanted a ticket for his brother too. A sitting MLA has threatened to quit the party. Several office-bearers too have bid goodbye to the Akali Dal in search of greener pastures in other parties. The Punjab Peoples Party (PPP) of Manpreet Badal is a threat and none of the Akali leaders know how and where it will hit them. Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal is face to face with his own brother and father of Manpreet, Gurdas Badal in Lambi. The Election Commission has cracked the whip and all the favourite officials of the Akalis have either been removed or are under the scanner.

But what has worked in its advantage so far is early declaration of candidates. It still has time to manage the contradictions within the party and the rebels. The early bird advantage is obviously with the ruling party as its candidates have started campaigning. But obviously, this is not enough.

Akali Dal’s ally, BJP too has its own share of problems and so far it has not announced any candidate. There is more than one claimant in most of the 23 seats where the party would contest and this has delayed the list of candidates.

Now when it looks like a tie, variables like the Dera factor assume significance in the run-up to the polls. So far, the influential Dera Sacha Sauda, based in Sirsa, has not taken a call on whom to support. In the last Assembly polls, it had supported the Congress, helping it improve its tally in the Akali stronghold of Malwa. There are at least a dozen more deras in Punjab with varying degrees of influence on the voters and have become a must on the itinerary of the leaders.

Politics is a game of possibilities. The political parties in contention realise this. In the next four weeks, all permutations and combinations will come into play to turn a tie into a match winning performance. Only the voters know the winner. (January 1, 2012)

(The writer is Senior Editor, The Pioneer, Chandigarh)

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