High turnout in Punjab keeps parties guessing

Amitabh Shukla / Chandigarh

The fate of ruling Akali Dal-BJP and Congress was sealed as people came out in large numbers to vote on a sunny day in Punjab Assembly election where the two traditional rivals are locked in a straight contest. By and large, a peaceful polling brought to an end a month-long process, which saw a war of words escalating between the political players with all top leaders from the Congress and the NDA descending on the State for campaigning.

Results would be announced only 35 days later, on March 6, keeping the suspense alive till then. Punjab poll is being billed by many as a watershed in the history of the State as it would test whether anti-incumbency was a factor or not. As both the major contenders of power are talking of development and only development, people of the State are the arbiters as to whose development they would go for and which argument they have understood better.

Polling percentage at 76.63 was one of the highest recorded in recent years more than the 2007 elections. The high turnout was facilitated by a bright sunny day and enthusiasm among the voters, particularly the first timers to come out in all their strength to exercise their franchise.

The high turnout kept the political leaders guessing — none of them know for sure whether it was prompted by anger against the incumbent Government or a pro-incumbency vote for what SAD-BJP has done in the last five years.

“Our alliance will do much better than last time. We have done a lot of work in five years,” Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal told reporters at Lambi, after casting his vote. The 84-year-old veteran is seeking a fifth term as Chief Minister. His son and president of Akali Dal, Sukhbir, endorsed what the senior Badal said, “People of Punjab are supporting us due to the work we have done”.

Their main rival and Congress nominee for the coveted post of Chief Minister, Capt Amarinder Singh was equally hopeful. “We are moving towards our target of 70 plus seats,” he said, after casting his vote at Patiala.

As SAD and Congress were making victory claims, Sanjha Morcha or the Third Front led by Manpreet Badal, the estranged nephew of the chief minister, did not show any signs of an impending defeat. “For Punjab this election is very crucial. There has been a political monopoly of two parties in the last 64 years. This time, we will form the government,” he said, showing bravado.

BJP’s star campaigner Navjot Singh Sidhu might have got tired after a hectic campaign schedule, not only for his wife who is contesting but also for the BJP and SAD candidates, but his one-liners kept the media persons occupied. “BJP will win over 15 seats and form the government along with SAD,” he said.

Dera Sacha Sauda, which had asked its supporters to vote for the Congress in the 2007 polls, refrained from issuing any directions this time, making the fight in Malwa region an evenly matched one. In the last polls, Congress had gained significantly in this region winning 37 of the 65 seats despite anti-incumbency even as it lost badly in Majha and Doaba. Being a traditional Akali bastion, the party is now expected to turn the tide and do well in the polls from where almost all top leaders of Congress, BJP and PPP are contesting. Being the cotton and cash crop belt of Punjab, the anti-incumbency here is more against the UPA government, particularly for changes brought in the fertiliser policy than the SAD government.

While Malwa is known for keeping the balance and there is no wild swing for one party or the other, Majha and Doaba are known for wild electoral swings and the winning party gets a good number of seats. This is what happened in 2007 and also 2002. But in 2012, both the regions could script a different story.

In Majha, bordering Pakistan, BJP recovered its lost ground in the cities in the last few days and was in a position of retaining most of its seats. Of the 24 seats in the area, Congress is facing rebels in 7, making its task all the more difficult. If rebels do not do much damage, Congress could be ahead of its rivals in the final tally.

Doaba too could help Congress increase its tally but not significantly. The social engineering of the Akalis to get the huge dalit votes (37 per cent) did not work as effectively as they had expected. Though the BSP could gain here, the dalit votes by and large went with the Congress, giving a new twist to the election saga. (31.1.2012)

http://dailypioneer.com/pioneer-news/todays-newspaper/39055-high-turnout-in-punjab-keeps-parties-guessing.html

http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/38984-high-turnout-in-punjab-keeps-parties-guessing.html