Race for the trophy begins in Punjab

Amitabh Shukla / Chandigarh

With both chief minister Parkash Singh Badal and aspirant for the post and state Congress chief Captain Amarinder Singh filing their nominations in Punjab on Tuesday, the race for the trophy has begun.

The ruling Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP alliance will be battling anti-incumbency, fatigue factor and a tradition where no party has been voted back to power post reorganization of the state in 1966.

Congress too will have to bear with anti-incumbency, being the ruling party at the Centre which takes some of the important decisions affecting Punjab like fixing the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of crops, deciding the share of taxes and also prices of agricultural inputs like fertiliser, diesel and seeds.

While the Akali Dal-BJP government has succeeded in fixing some of the blame of the ills plaguing the state on the Congress ruled UPA by time and again pointing to the alleged discrimination which the centre indulges in, Congress too has managed to convince a section of the voters that some of the developmental schemes for the which the state government was taking credit was indeed being done by the Centre.

As both the parties start canvassing for votes, they begin on a clean slate with no debit or credit, no apparent advantage to one party or the other and no wave for or against any particular party.

With the support base of Akali Dal, primarily the Jat Sikh peasantry in the rural areas and the Congress base of urban voters, dalits, backward communities intact, both parties start with a base of 20 per cent each. It would then be a combination of factors at the micro level which includes factors like rebel candidates, the selection of candidates and election management which would determine the outcome.

Region wise, the Akali Dal will have to do a lot of homework in the Malwa region, its traditional stronghold, which was dented by the Congress in the 2007 polls. Congress won 37 out of 65 seats in the Malwa region putting SAD behind in an area from where its top leadership comes from. The Badals come from this belt and contest elections from Malwa and so does the royal family of Patiala. If the Akalis manage to do well in Malwa in the 2012 polls, they could well be staring at power in Chandigarh. But if there is a slip like the last time, the opposition benches would be theirs for sure.

In the 2007 polls, the impressive performance of Congress in Malwa was attributed to the appeal of Dera Sacha Sauda to vote for the party. In this belt, the Dera has considerable influence on the dalit and backward caste voters belonging to both the Sikh and Hindu communities. So far, the dera has not taken a call on the issue and not issued any instruction to its followers. Both Congress and the Akalis are keenly watching what stand the Dera takes in the next fortnight before polling.

If the SAD-BJP lost out in Malwa, they made it up by an unprecedented victory in Majha (border area) where the alliance won 23 out of 27 seats, pushing the Congress to the margins. Congress will have to concentrate in this area more than anywhere else to make up for the numbers.

In the Doaba region, again the SAD-BJP did well winning 20 of the 25 seats.

Due to its impressive performance in the Malwa region, Congress denied the Akali Dal the privilege of having the numbers on its own and it was dependent on the BJP for majority unlike the previous elections. Also the 2007 election was unique in a sense that for the first time, a party which had won a majority of seats in Malwa could not form the government in the state.

Congress would have to do well in Majha and Doaba and also retain its lead in Malwa to romp him in the polls. The difference in trend of voting in the three areas of Punjab was the hallmark of the 2007 polls, something which had not been seen in the previous elections. Both SAD-BJP and Congress would be keenly watching whether regional differences emerge in the voting behaviour this time round or all the voters of the state vote in tandem as per the convention. (January 11, 2012)

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