High turnout in Punjab keeps parties guessing

Amitabh Shukla / Chandigarh

The fate of ruling Akali Dal-BJP and Congress was sealed as people came out in large numbers to vote on a sunny day in Punjab Assembly election where the two traditional rivals are locked in a straight contest. By and large, a peaceful polling brought to an end a month-long process, which saw a war of words escalating between the political players with all top leaders from the Congress and the NDA descending on the State for campaigning.

Results would be announced only 35 days later, on March 6, keeping the suspense alive till then. Punjab poll is being billed by many as a watershed in the history of the State as it would test whether anti-incumbency was a factor or not. As both the major contenders of power are talking of development and only development, people of the State are the arbiters as to whose development they would go for and which argument they have understood better.

Polling percentage at 76.63 was one of the highest recorded in recent years more than the 2007 elections. The high turnout was facilitated by a bright sunny day and enthusiasm among the voters, particularly the first timers to come out in all their strength to exercise their franchise.

The high turnout kept the political leaders guessing — none of them know for sure whether it was prompted by anger against the incumbent Government or a pro-incumbency vote for what SAD-BJP has done in the last five years.

“Our alliance will do much better than last time. We have done a lot of work in five years,” Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal told reporters at Lambi, after casting his vote. The 84-year-old veteran is seeking a fifth term as Chief Minister. His son and president of Akali Dal, Sukhbir, endorsed what the senior Badal said, “People of Punjab are supporting us due to the work we have done”.

Their main rival and Congress nominee for the coveted post of Chief Minister, Capt Amarinder Singh was equally hopeful. “We are moving towards our target of 70 plus seats,” he said, after casting his vote at Patiala.

As SAD and Congress were making victory claims, Sanjha Morcha or the Third Front led by Manpreet Badal, the estranged nephew of the chief minister, did not show any signs of an impending defeat. “For Punjab this election is very crucial. There has been a political monopoly of two parties in the last 64 years. This time, we will form the government,” he said, showing bravado.

BJP’s star campaigner Navjot Singh Sidhu might have got tired after a hectic campaign schedule, not only for his wife who is contesting but also for the BJP and SAD candidates, but his one-liners kept the media persons occupied. “BJP will win over 15 seats and form the government along with SAD,” he said.

Dera Sacha Sauda, which had asked its supporters to vote for the Congress in the 2007 polls, refrained from issuing any directions this time, making the fight in Malwa region an evenly matched one. In the last polls, Congress had gained significantly in this region winning 37 of the 65 seats despite anti-incumbency even as it lost badly in Majha and Doaba. Being a traditional Akali bastion, the party is now expected to turn the tide and do well in the polls from where almost all top leaders of Congress, BJP and PPP are contesting. Being the cotton and cash crop belt of Punjab, the anti-incumbency here is more against the UPA government, particularly for changes brought in the fertiliser policy than the SAD government.

While Malwa is known for keeping the balance and there is no wild swing for one party or the other, Majha and Doaba are known for wild electoral swings and the winning party gets a good number of seats. This is what happened in 2007 and also 2002. But in 2012, both the regions could script a different story.

In Majha, bordering Pakistan, BJP recovered its lost ground in the cities in the last few days and was in a position of retaining most of its seats. Of the 24 seats in the area, Congress is facing rebels in 7, making its task all the more difficult. If rebels do not do much damage, Congress could be ahead of its rivals in the final tally.

Doaba too could help Congress increase its tally but not significantly. The social engineering of the Akalis to get the huge dalit votes (37 per cent) did not work as effectively as they had expected. Though the BSP could gain here, the dalit votes by and large went with the Congress, giving a new twist to the election saga. (31.1.2012)

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Akali-BJP attempts to beat 44-year-old tradition

Amitabh Shukla / Chandigarh

No party has been ever repeated in Punjab, post 1966 when the State was reorganised. But ask Congress supporters and they will say that “historical coincidence” and ground level battle are two different things and they cannot take victory for granted.

The SAD-BJP combine too is hardly bothered about the 44-year old tradition, riding on a development bandwagon and promising the moon to the people of the State to woo them again.

“It is a battle between development (by SAD-BJP) and promises of development (Congress),” a senior bureaucrat said, adding, “development is the punch-line this time round”.

Both SAD and Congress have their traditional vote bank almost intact. The SAD has not lost the vote base amongst the rural farmers and landholders, primarily Jat Sikhs. Though the Congress has retained its support base amongst the urban voters, Dalits and also a section of the backward class, it is still far away from the base it had in the 2002 polls when the party was voted to power. Despite some setbacks, the BJP has retained its core urban vote base even though its performance might not be as good as 2007 when it won 19 seats and swept the urban areas.

The Congress is also facing a dozen and half serious rebels and another dozen who may be rebels but pose no serious threat. The numbers for the Akali Dal is barely six and none for the BJP. The Congress rebels have the potential to change equations in several seats and in at least 4 seats, they are ahead than the official Congress candidate.

Projection of Captain Amarinder Singh as the chief ministerial candidate by Rahul Gandhi has also not gone well with a 2-3 contenders who refused to go anywhere after the announcement and confined themselves to their constituencies or their houses.

Being a Dalit bastion of the country with almost 31 per cent population in the SC category, a lot has changed for them post 2007 polls. There has been a consolidation of the Dalit votes after the assassination of Sant Ramanand of Dera Sachkhand Ballan, which almost has a complete hold on the Ravi Dassia community in Doaba. This could go the BSP way, affecting Congress.

Dera Sacha Sauda’s neutral stand so far will also help the Akalis in their traditional bastion of Malwa. There is no fiat for or against any party like last time when the Dera openly came out in support of the Congress, helping it win 37 of the 65 seats in Malwa. The Dera perhaps realised that “supporting clean and honest” candidates was the way forward and not dabbling in politics.

On the penultimate day, Baba Ramdev asked for a vote against the Congress but he hardly has support base to make any difference. None of the deras have so far come out openly for or against anyone.

Politically, both the SAD-BJP alliance and the Congress will have to contend with the Sanjha Morcha, led by People’s Party of Punjab. It would east into the votes of both the parties and remains the untested phenomenon of Punjab polls.

Voting percentage was almost 72 per cent in the 2007 polls, symbolising the faith of the people in the system and democratic process. Results would be known only 35 days later on March 6 but clearly development has come to define politics of the state after a long time.

With development taking the center stage, relegating other issues in the background, Punjab going to polls on Monday has the potential to set the agenda for the 2014 general elections.

If SAD-BJP wins, National Democratic Alliance will be on a song in the run up to the general elections, if not, Congress would feel comfortable going to the polls, a little over two years from now. (30.1.2012)

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Rebels of Punjab: ‘Azad’ Congress versus Congress

Amitabh Shukla / Chandigarh

There may not be any registered political party called “Azad Congress” in Punjab but those contesting against the official candidate of their parent party Congress, have been aptly given the name as they are set to cloud the performance of Congress in the state.

Almost two dozen rebels, some serious, some flexing muscles and some eager to test the political waters, revolted against the list of candidates announced by the AICC and decided to contest as independents in the eagerly watched political battle. Not that the main rival Akali Dal is free from the malaise but nothing like an “Azad Akali Dal” has emerged as the numbers are miniscule compared to Congress.

“Neutral” Congress leaders, perceived to be the representatives of the high command like General Secretaries Oscar Fernandes and B K Hariprasad were fielded by the party to meet the rebels, cajole them, convince them, offer posts in the future and also threaten them of a bleak political future outside Congress and expulsion. Only a handful agreed to meet them, mainly the younger ones. Some of them simply turned then away. Almost 20 leaders, most of them former MLAs and having been through the thick and thin of the party for three decades, did not relent.

“Most of them are insignificant. They can’t get more than a few hundred votes. Congress knows how to tackle them as rebels are there in every election,” Hariprasad told The Pioneer.

But there are “worry lines” on the faces of those Congress leaders who have been with the party for long and know what difference it makes if a few hundred and a few thousand votes are debited from the vote bank of the party and that too in over 20 constituencies in a keenly contested battle. These worry lines have only grown as the D-Day approaches.

After failing to persuade the members of “Azad Congress”, PCC has so far expelled the rebels from the party who did not withdraw despite inducements and threats. They include Ashok Sharma from Pathankot, Sucha Singh Chhotepur and Baljit Singh Bhatti from Baba Bakala, Sukhjinder Singh Lali Majithia from Majitha, Ram Kishen Kataria from Balachaur, Hari Pal from Chamkaur Sahib, Bhalinder Singh in Ludhaina Rural, Jagmohan Sharma in Ludhiana East, former minister Harbans Lal in Fatehgarh Sahib and former MLAs Ravinder Babbal, Upender Sharma (Kotkapura) and Gurbir Singh Sandhu (Jalalabad).

Other prominent rebels who have been expelled from the primary membership of the party includes include contestants like Deepinder Singh Dhillon from Dera Bassi, Inderjeet Qasabad from Sahnewal, Hans Raj Josan from Jalalabad, Naresh Puri from Sujanpur and Rajneesh Kumar Babbi from Mukerian.

Congress sources said Jagmohan Sharma retired from contest later on but these 17 rebels, expelled from the party, have been associated with the party for long and have the potential to affect the chances of the official party nominee.

Apart from those expelled from the party, there are dozens who are working against the party, several who are still contesting but not considered big leaders to be expelled like Simerpreet Kaur Bhatia from Amritsar, who was first given a ticket and then it was withdrawn. Most of those who retired and withdrew their candidature, are nursing grievance and have refrained from actively working for the victory of the official candidate, lest it affects their chances in the future elections.

While the BJP has been free from the malaise and there is hardly any important rebel against the official party candidate, Akali Dal faces around 8 rebels. These include Balwinder Singh Bains from Ludhiana South, Simarjit Bains from Atam Nagar, Manpreet Kaur Dolly from Dera Bassi, Gurpratap Singh Tikka from Amritsar South and Mohinder Singh Hussainipur from Nawanshahr. Didar Singh Bhatti is another rebel from Fatehgarh Sahib but he is contesting on Punjab People’s party ticket.

Then there are candidates of Sanjha Morcha of Manpreet Badal with whom both Congress and Akali Dal will have to contend with. Manpreet parted ways with the SAD last year and has now emerged as the “Third Front” of Punjab politics. Manpreet may not be called a rebel as he has formed his own party and he could cut into both SAD and Congress vote bank but his departure was a setback which the Akalis are not likely to forget in a hurry. (30.1.12)

Punjab poll script misses the plot

Punjab Assembly polls could perhaps be one election where the suspense was maintained throughout, there was high pitched campaign and honours equally divided with no clear cut winners emerging as campaigning came to an end on Saturday evening.

Now when the time has come for the voters to make their choice, it would be between the agenda of development set by the ruling Akali Dal-BJP combine, the promises of Congress and the offer of a “fresh breeze” by the Sanjha Morcha.

With opinion polls largely divided, half of them favouring SAD-BJP combine and the other half favouring Congress, voters would not even be swayed by going for the party that is winning the polls. Clearly, there is no wave for and against any party. While there are numerous takers for SAD-BJP’s development agenda, there are equal numbers of those who think that the promises of Congress hold greater promise.

I have been talking to reporters on the ground, people living in different areas of the state, experts, bureaucrats, field surveyors – some belonging to political parties and some from other organisations, political leaders and workers of all hues in the last fortnight.

At the micro level several factors have come into pay which is rather neglected when we see a macro picture of the state with issues differing from one region to the other and from one constituency to the other.

What is clear is that SAD-BJP has largely bucked anti-incumbency. People don’t change governments as a matter of routine every five years. That myth has been broken in the elections which took place in this century in several parts of the country – Bihar, Delhi, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Orissa, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh are testimony to this fact. People want stability, they want development and do not want uncertainties in government policy. Punjab is no exception. In that sense, people of Punjab are not visibly angry with the current government and are not desperate to throw it out.

Then, at the micro level, there are the rebels. Both the parties are affected by it. Congress, is bearing the brunt of rebellion so much so that in some places the rebels are in actual fight while the official party candidate is trailing. How much votes the rebels manage and how much damage can they cause to the official party nominees is a matter of conjecture and would be known only after the detailed results. But you ask the candidates facing the rebels and they would say that it indeed is indeed a big factor for them and would make the difference between a victory and a defeat.

In the Doaba region where the dalit population is as high as 37 per cent, it is the BSP factor which is worrying the Congress. After the assassination of Swami Ramanand of Dera Sachkhand Ballan in Vienna in May 2009 violence erupted in Punjab. The dera followers, mainly Doaba dalits, believe that the Akali Dal did not do anything against the perpetrators in Punjab and the central government led by Congerss did not act diplomatically to nab the culprits. So, some of them are veering towards the BSP rather than the two parties which they have been hitherto supporting. Apart from this, in the Malwa region, the Dera Sacha Sauda factor looms large which has the potential to tilt the balance in several segments.

Let is now take the supporters of the Left parties. Punjab was a bastion of the Left not long time back and Congress was its ally till the 2002 polls. For the first time in recent years, they are in a position to get 2000-3000 votes every constituency, if not more, as alliance partner of PPP in Sanjha Morcha. Obviously, this will be from the Congress quota as the Left supporters never voted for the panthic agenda of the Akali Dal nor for its ally BJP.

PPP is also an untested phenomenon as for the first time in over two decades, a third front has emerged which is contesting all the seats. While PPP is hitting the Akalis, it is also affecting the Congress in urban areas. So the PPP votes are coming from the quota of both the parties.

What has worked for the Congress is the pathetic condition of some of the cities. Urban rejuvenation merely remained a talking point and not something to be implemented on the ground. Congress has recovered in cities like Amritsar and Ludhiana amongst others and it would be the BJP which is finding it tough to retain even a dozen seats from a high of 19 it got last time.

Then it is the pathetic condition of schools and lack of focus on government education. It is a pan-Punjab issue which Congress is trying to cash in and has been rather successful.

But again, Congress frittered away the natural anti-incumbency advantage it had. First, there was inordinate delay in announcement of party tickets and leaders and ticket seekers were camping in Delhi when the Akalis were campaigning throughout. Congress wasted at least 10 days in the process and let the entire world know that even for deciding routine matters, the party has to be dependent on New Delhi.

Congress also failed to use Manmohan Singh properly in the campaign and despite having a Prime Minister from Punjab, they never portrayed him in the elections nor did they try to have more meetings to project him as an icon of the state, who has made it big, nationally and internationally. He addressed one single meeting in Amritsar and even there, the party had to use the services of a Gurdas Mann to keep the small crowd interested. This was one state where the Prime Minister could have been used electorally but it didn’t happen. Instead, the party brought in people like Rajesh Khanna and Nagma, long forgotten.

There could be a certain amount of anti-incumbency against the SAD-BJP combine but it adopted a clever ploy during the polls and targeted the central government’s policy on farmers like low MSP on crops, faulty fertiliser policy, etc to point that UPA has been in power for almost 8 years now and the hardships which the farmers are facing was largely due to that factor.

There have been several grey areas in the run-up to the voting day, clearly indicating that only the money bags can win elections. The unaccounted cash recovered so far has been to the tune of almost Rs 35 crore in the state. A senior police official told me that this was only the tip of the iceberg and only a fraction, say 1-2 per cent of the money which was floating in the state before elections. So imagine the amount of black money in the state and how it is used to influence voters. The figures would definitely give fresh arsenal to Baba Ramdev who wants to bring black money stashed abroad and Anna Hazare who wants to end corruption.

Then, there have been huge seizures of every variety of narcotics, not only when the model code of conduct came into force but even before the elections. Narcotics were being stored in bulk for use during elections and so was liquor.

After a grueling campaign, what comes as a dampener is the fact that results would be known only on March 6. It is like an anti climax, something which could clearly have been avoided. (29.1.2012)

http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/38509-punjab-poll-script-misses-the-plot.html

Wary Deras veer away from politics

Amitabh Shukla / Chandigarh

Historically Miri (politics) and Piri (religion) go together in Punjab. But not this time round. Numerous deras spread all across the state and having varying degree of influence, have so far refrained from directly issuing any diktat to their followers to vote for or against any party.

Dera Sacha Sauda, headed by Gurmit Ram Rahim, is one of the largest and had openly sided with the Congress in the 2007 polls and helped the party in the Malwa region where despite anti-incumbency wave, it managed to win 37 of the 65 seats. Now this dera, along with others are in a dilemma – whether to support a party, a candidate or simply forget about supporting or opposing anyone.

“They (deras) have adopted the middle path. They do not want to antagonize any party or candidate. So far, the dera sacha Sauda is not favouring any party and is not likely to do so,” a follower of the dera said.

But it has not stopped the candidates in the Malwa region from visiting the headquarters of Sacha Sauda in Sirsa in neighbouring Haryana. Over 200 candidates and political leaders, and this include the who is who of Punjab politics, lined up and sought “blessings” of the Dera chief. They did get “blessings” but no promise of votes of supporters.

The Dera claims the support of 40 lakh people, primarily dalits, lower and backward castes who seek social equality by associating with them. But other deras like the Radha Soami Satsang, Beas, too have a similar following if not more. The Divya Jyoti Jagriti Sansthan of Baba Ashutosh, Dera Sachkhand Ballan, Dera Baba Jaure, Nirankaris, amongst others too claims a huge following.

Hundreds of deras have mushroomed all over Punjab and almost every big village has some religious person commanding influence amongst the people. Most of the deras are patronized by one caste or the other and its conflict with hardline Sikhism comes when they ape the Gurus or use Sikh idioms to make themselves popular.

Villagers say that often they go to more than one deras and some, particularly the farmers, try every dera in their area before settling for the one they find themselves closest to, bringing in competition amongst them to retain followers. But none of the bigger deras, except the Sacha Sauda, has openly sided with any political party. At best, they support the candidate who is their follower.

Talk to anyone in the region and you know that almost everyone in Punjab is attached to some dera or the other. There are deras exclusively for dalits (both Sikhs and Hindus) and other castes. The dalits, who comprise 30 per cent of Punjab population, invariably are members of one or the other dera. Also the backward castes find spiritual expression more through the deras.

“For most of the followers, deras mean spiritual abode and not a political centre. If they find that the dera is indulging in politics and is favouring this or that party, they change their affiliation all together and many stop going to the deras,” a senior BJP leader said. He said, the followers are not “blind” and if the deras use politics, it could boomerang on them and affect their following. BJP is one party which has maintained cordial relations with all the deras in the state.

Due to the perception that issuing a diktat would affect their following, Dera Sacha Sauda has so far not taken any stand not has any other dera so far.

But All prominent leaders of the state – Captain Amarinder Singh, Preneet Kaur, Gulchain Charak, Rajinder Kaur Bhattal (Congress) Parkash Singh Badal and his son Sukhbir Singh Badal (SAD) and Manpreet Badal (PPP) make it sure that they pay a courtesy call to the dera chief, if they are campaigning near the headquarters of the dera. Some of them make numerous visits, depending on the clout of the dera on the people.

“In politics, no one wants to leave any effort. If they think that a person commands even half a dozen votes, he becomes important. Deras have so much of a following, that everyone wants to be in their good books,” summed up a senior Congress leader here when asked why do the Congress leaders frequent the deras despite quoting “secularism” in every speech.

On the reluctance of Dera Sacha Sauda to support any party, a BJP leader said that last time they supported the Congress and the Akalis came to power. Congress could not do anything to help the Dera chief in the CBI cases he was involved in. “So this time round, they are guarded and will remain so. After all the credibility of the dera too is at stake”. (28.1.2012)

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Punjab Polls: Separatist politics has no takers

Amitabh Shukla / Chandigarh

Militant philosophy, extremist ideology and separatist tendencies, which marked the Punjab of 1980s and early 1990s have no takers in the 2012 Assembly polls. Parties professing separatist ideology have been thrown on to the backburner; they are no longer even fringe players in Punjab politics.

Those professing extremist ideology or advocating separate state of Khalistan have not only been consistently losing their support base in successive elections but also their relevance in the socio-religious and cultural milieu of the state.

Sample this. The claim to fame of Sarabjit Singh Khalsa is that he is the son of Beant Singh, one of the two assassins of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. He wanted to contest the 2012 polls from Bassi Pathana segment but could not do so as he himself said he did not have the requisite money. Punjab now has no sympathy or money for the son of Indira’s assassin. Even when Khalsa fought the Bathinda Lok Sabha and Bhadaur assembly segment elections on the ticket of Akali Dal (Amritsar), he could get only a handful of votes. His mother Bimal Kaur Khalsa, nevertheless, had won the Ropar Lok Sabha seat in 1989 at the height of terrorism in the state.

The fate of Simranjit Singh Mann, the former IPS officer, and a votary of Khalistan is no different from Khalsa. Over a period of time, those having militant view fought from his party Akali Dal (Amritsar) in the Assembly, parliamentary and the SGPC elections. However, given his shrinking electoral vote base, Mann has become irrelevant in Punjab politics so much so that he finds it difficult to even find candidates for all the 117 seats and is content giving a symbolic contest in 30 odd seats.

The last electoral victory of Mann was a good 12 years ago when he won the Lok Sabha polls from Sangrur. Since then, he is struggling to find support in Punjab and even his son Emaan lost the SGPC elections held in September in which only the Sikhs voted. Mann entered politics with a bang in 1989 in the heydays of terrorism in the state by winning the Taran Taran Lok Sabha seat by a record margin. He still advocates “Right to self determination” and “Khalistan” during his press conferences in Chandigarh once in a while but when asked about the road map or support base, he remains silent.

Mann is contesting the assembly polls from Fatehgarh Sahib but is yet to catch up with his rivals Prem Singh Chandumajra of SAD, Congress candidate Kuljit Singh Nagra and sitting MLA Didar Singh Bhatti of PPP. Feedback from the ground suggests, he would be Number 4 and lose his security deposit.

The 2007 assembly polls marked the political waterloo of Mann’s party when it contested on 37 seats and all its candidates forfeited their security deposit. In the entire state, the party could get 65248 votes or 0.52 per cent of the votes cast. It was a marked change from the 2002 polls when SAD (Amritsar) contested on 84 seats, did not win any but bagged an impressive 478115 votes in the state or 4.65 per cent of the votes polled. But that was the best performance his party had in assembly polls.

When President Pratibha Patil rejected the mercy petition of Devinder Pal Singh Bhullar, a Khalistan Liberation Force terrorist and the mastermind of the Delhi 1993 blast in which nine people lost their lives, in May last year, there were hardly any murmurs in Punjab except routine statements. Now when Assembly elections are being held, none of the parties have thought fit even to bring the issue in public domain.

“The issue of terrorism and extreme views is past its expiry date. No one is bothered – neither the people nor the parties to rake up such issues,” an Akali leader said. He said people suffered during those days and no one wants to remember the sad past.

Sectarian issues like the voting rights of Sehajdhari Sikhs (those Sikhs who had trimmed their beards or flouted religious norms) in the SGPC elections did crop up in the run-up to the polls. Congress tried to cash in on the issue and the party of Sehejdhari Sikhs, which was contesting the Assembly polls, withdrew in favour of Congress. But it never flared up or became a poll issue.

Some fringe elements did try to cash in on the refusal of a school girl in Hoshirapur to take a cycle from the state government which had the photo of chief minister Parkash Singh Badal last month, saying he was responsible for the problems which the community faces post 1984.

The radical Akali Dal (Panch Pardhani) gave her a scooter and also Rs 20,000 for fuel expenses. She was also gifted a cycle having the photo of Sant Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale. Encouraged by the gift of a scooter, some more students refused the cycle, offered by the state government to girl students under a scheme, but when no scooters were forthcoming as replacement, the protest against the bicycle having Badal’s photo ended abruptly. (27.1.2012)

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Daughters and wives carry family legacy in Punjab

Amitabh Shukla / Chandigarh

They are the daughters and wives of prominent and not so prominent Punjab leaders. For them keeping alive the family tradition of politics is more important than anything else in life and contesting election a mission to keep the flag of family surname flying high. They want that the surnames of their fathers, husbands and family to remain in public domain, now and forever.

Kuldeep Tohra is the adopted daughter of towering Akali Dal leader Gurcharan Singh Tohra. Her father remained the SGPC President for a record 27 terms and the party owes its base in the rural areas to him. Kuldeep followed her father’s footsteps and got elected to the SGPC. Now, she thinks being an MLA would help her carry the legacy of Tohra more effectively. Contesting from Patiala rural seat, a teary-eyed Kuldeep says, “He (Tohra) worked not only for the Sikh legacy, but also for everyone for his entire life. I will follow my father’s footsteps and do everything possible for the betterment of this constituency”.

The political profile of Karan Kaur Brar is no different. She may be the richest candidate in fray but for her the “Brar” surname of her father-in-law and former chief minister Harcharan Singh Brar is of utmost importance. She is the wife of sitting MLA Sunny Brar but as he is ailing, Karan has been given the chance to carry forward the legacy of not only her father-in-law but also her husband as a Congerss candidate from Muktsar.

Then you have Manpreet Dolly, daughter of Akali Stalwart Capt Kanwaljit Singh, who died in a road accident over two years ago. She desperately wanted to contest her father’s seat from the party which her father represented. When Akalis denied her a ticket and instead nominated a real estate developer, she decided to contest as an Independent from Dera Bassi near Chandigarh. “My father was an icon, an example of selfless service. Vote for me for the sake of my father,” she urges the voters of the constituency. Her mother accompanies her on the campaign and the portrait of Capt Kanwaljit is always there in all her publicity material. Interestingly, Dolly’s brother Jasjit Singh Bunny remains in Akali Dal even though he is keeping a low profile in the elections.

Dolly and Simerpreet Kaur Bhatia may be contesting from different constituencies but they have a lot of similarity. Bhatia’s young husband Harpal Singh Bhatia, a prominent youth Congress leader of Amritsar died while he was on his way to meet Rahul Gandhi in New Delhi. To cash in on the sympathy factor, Congress first announced her candidature from Amritsar (East) but withdrew her name a few days later. An enraged Bhatia swore on her husband’s name and decided to contest as an independent despite senior Congress leaders trying to placate her. “My husband Harpal has worked really hard in the area for over four years. And I have full support of the masses here,” says Simerpreet.

Gur Iqbal Kaur, wife of former MLA Parkash Singh from Nawanshahar too is more interested in carrying forward the legacy of her husband who died recently than the world of politics.

There are at least half a dozen other women contestants in the polls from political families but they have been fielded by their husbands and fathers, all powerful and well entrenched in Punjab politics. But the reason for fielding them is different - to have a greater control on their fiefdom.

This includes Charanjit Kaur Bajwa wife of MP Partap Singh Bajwa from Qadian, Suman Kay Pee wife of former PPCC President Mohinder Singh Kay Pee and Harbans Kaur Dullo wife of former PPCC president Shamsher Singh Dullo from Bassi Pathana.

From Akali Dal Harpreet Kaur Mukhmailpur is wife of a former minister and Varinder Kaur Loomba is daughter of former MLA. BJP has given ticket to Navjot Kaur Sidhu from Amritsar East, the wife of sitting MP Navjot Singh Sidhu. (26.1.2012)

http://www.dailypioneer.com/pioneer-news/todays-newspaper/37976-daughters-and-wives-carry-family-legacy-in-punjab.html

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Manpreet holds the wild card

Amitabh Shukla / Chandigarh

For the first time in almost two decades, Punjab has found its own “Third Front” in the form of Manpreet Singh Badal, estranged nephew of chief minister Parkash Singh Badal.

He may not be able to reach to the double digit figures, which the party is expecting, but being an untested phenomenon in Punjab politics, he is giving the established players a run for their money.

Both Congress and Akali Dal consider the Sanjha Morcha of Manpreet, comprising of the Left parties and some factions of the Akali Dal as a “double edged sword”. They don’t know which way will it hurt but they are sure that the Sanjha Morcha would be a spoiler for many players of both the parties in several constituencies.

While the Sanjha Morcha is yet to take roots in the rural areas where the Akali Dal has continued to maintain its dominance, it is definitely attracting youth in the urban areas affecting both Congress and BJP. Also giving tickets to some rebels and others who have a strong base, the party is set to open its account in the Assembly polls.

Manpreet himself is contesting from two seats in the Malwa belt – Gidderbaha and Maur- and given the profile of the two constituencies and the opponents against him, indications are that he could well romp home in both. Political circles are already abuzz that if Manpreet wins both the seats, he will vacate one for his wife Veenu.

His father Gurdas Badal is contesting from Lambi, the constituency he had nursed for his brother and now political rival, Parkash Singh Badal. As the threat is real, the senior Badal is spending a lot of time in the constituency rather than campaigning for other candidates. This had never happened in the past as it was Gurdas who held forte for his brother in the previous elections. The margin of victory of Badal senior over his Congress rival was around nine thousand in the 2007 elections. If PPP’s Gurdas manages a decent show and cuts into the votes of Akali Dal, an interesting scenario could emerge here.

As Left parties are a part of the Sanjha Morcha, the traditional left voters could vote for the party in several constituencies. The Left in recent years got considerably weakened in the state from where Harkishen Singh Surjit, the doyen of CPI(M) and master strategist hailed from. It used to have an alliance with Congress before the 2007 elections. So whatever votes the Left gets, would have otherwise gone to the Congress. With a close contest on every seat, even a few hundred votes count. Bolstered by an alliance with the PPP, even the weakened Left could fetch a few thousand votes in the 22 seats it is contesting.

In the 2007 polls, CPI got 3.31 per cent votes and the CPI(M) got 2.25 votes in the seats from where they contested. In the 2002 polls, CPI had contested 11 seats in alliance with Congress and won 2 seats with a vote share of 22.56 per cent in the seats contested. So the Left votes in the state could go to Sanjha Morcha, making it the most serious “spoiler” in at least three dozen seats of the state.

Long before the election dates were announced, in every political meeting, the Badal patriarch had something nasty or emotional to say about his nephew Manpreet. The implied meaning was clear. He could sense that a division in the family would have political fallout. He only had to contend with one political enemy in 2007 (Congress) but in 2012, he has to contend with two – Congress and PPP.

In the 2007 elections, which the SAD won, Badal was the undisputed leader of the party with no Gurcharan Singh Tohra or Surjit Singh Barnala to contend with. He is still the undisputed leader of the party but unlike Tohra or Barnala, who retired in oblivion; his nephew is ambitious and is set to have an impact like Raj Thakre did in Maharashtra.

PPP has come out with its 100-day programme which is not populist but touches all aspects of life of an average Punjabi. This includes, curbing VIP culture, legislations on education, NRI marriages, administrative and police reforms, war against corruption, comprehensive agricultural policy, cleansing drive of Punjab rivers, amongst others. There are no freebies involved like its rivals SAD and Congress.

“We have taken a pledge for the betterment of Punjab by launching a movement called PPP for the people,” says Manpreet, as he moves around the state in support of his candidates, hoping that someday the core vote bank of Akali Dal would shift to his party. (25.1.2012)

http://dailypioneer.com/home/online-channel/india-pollitick/37566-manpreet-holds-the-wild-card.html

Mission BSP: Punjab & Uttarakhand

Amitabh Shukla / Chandigarh

Bahujan Samaj Party may be a force to reckon with in the poll bound state of Uttar Pradesh and to some extent in Uttarakhand, but in Punjab - the state where it was founded and showed initial promise - the party has been pushed to the fringe as a marginal political player.

Party chief and UP chief minister Mayawati launched the campaign of the party in a whirlwind tour of the state for two days and reminded her core vote bank that Kanshi Ram, the “Manyavar” in BSP lexicon, hailed from the state and they had to ensure that the dreams of the party’s founder of forming government in the state was fulfilled in the 2012 polls.

Not even the hardcore BSP supporters would take the call seriously given the present strength of the party in the state, its dwindling support base and its lack of focus in reviving the party. Moreover, in her speeches in Punjab, party supremo Mayawati continued to highlight what her party had done in UP rather than on what it intends to do in the state and what was its agenda and policies.

But it was Mayawati who deliberately kept away from Punjab and concentrated in her home state of UP, instead of the home state Kanshi Ram despite the fact that Punjab had all the classic ingredients for the success of a dalit-centric party. With a dalit population of 30-31 per cent, unlike UP’s 17-18 per cent, BSP could have politically done much better in the state if normal sociological factors came into play. It was not to be as Punjab is historically and sociologically different from the Hindi heartland and there was no attempt ever for consolidation of the dalit vote base after Kanshi Ram gave the reins of the party to his disciple, Mayawati.

Thanks to the neglect of the central leadership, the party has not won any seat since the 1997 polls even though its vote share was 4.13 per cent in the 2007 polls and 5.69 per cent in the 2002 polls. Even in Doaba region, where the Scheduled Caste population is as high as 37 per cent, the party has failed to impress electorally. The last time, the party did well was in the 1992 polls which Akalis had boycotted amid militant activities in the state.

After a brief honeymoon with the BSP, Dalits in Punjab have expressed themselves politically through the two main parties – Congress and the Akali Dal. But it has been the Congress which has had an upper hand on the dalit votes. Akali Dal is seen by a section of the dalits as a party which has the dominance of Jat Sikhs, with whom this section has come into conflict in the rural areas occasionally.

Moreover, political observers here say that dalits are a divided lot in Punjab unlike other states and it would be wrong to see them as a homogenous group with the same voting preferences of all. They are divided in as many as 37 various sub-castes and groups along with division on religions lines – Sikhs and Hindus. They are also divided in numerous deras, some of them influential, which came into conflict with the hardliners in the last two decades. Also dalits here did not face the kind of social milieu of discrimination which exists in Hindi heartland of UP and Bihar and are relatively prosperous with a fair say in economy and politics of the state.

In fact, the word “Chamar” may be termed derogatory elsewhere, but an organisation calling itself the “Chamar Mahasabha” exists with considerable influence amongst the dalits here. They have come out with a slogan which says “proud to be a chamar”. P. S. Kainth, President of the Mahasabha, said that his organization was weighing its options and its supporters would vote for the party which would work for the dalit issues.

BSP leaders now say that they are aiming to arrest the slide of the party in the 2012 polls and the back to back rallies of Mayawati has helped their cause. They point out that despite a busy schedule, the UP chief minister found time to come to Punjab and this will help consolidate the dalits. Mayawati last had a rally cum workshop in state Capital Chandigarh in May last year to prepare the ground for Punjab elections.

It may be a travesty but in the 2012 elections, the fortunes of BSP is closely linked with that of the performance of SAD-BJP alliance. If the BSP does even slightly well, it will be the SAD-BJP alliance which will benefit. Congress and BSP have a common vote bank in the state and if Mayawati’s party does well and improves upon 4.13 per cent which it got in the 2007 polls, there would be erosion in Congress vote share.

In the run up to the polls, BSP spurned offers from Sanjha Morcha led by Manpreet Badal of People’s Party of Punjab, deciding to go it alone – a policy which it has been following in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand as well. (24.1.2012)

http://dailypioneer.com/home/online-channel/india-pollitick/37319-mission-bsp-punjab-a-uttarakhand-2012.html

Punjab forgets Punjabi PM

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is no longer the trump card of the Congress in Punjab as he used to be earlier. His popularity is clearly on the wane in the state from where he hails from. So it wasn’t surprising to find that the Prime Minister hardly has much involvement in terms of election rallies and meetings in the state which goes to polls on January 30.

The Congress rally which was held in Amritsar on Saturday gave ample indications that the Prime Minister has lost out in the popularity ratings in a state which revered him not a long time back for being the “son of soil” and a Punjabi who has made it big nationally and internationally due to sheer hard work and not due to family connections.

Held at Ranjit Avenue in Amritsar, the rally attracted only a handful of people, all Congress workers from the city and nearby areas. One of my colleagues, Nishu Mahajan, who was covering the rally for the newspaper, told me that when the PM was speaking, chairs at the end of the venue were being removed by the workers of the tent house as it remained unoccupied throughout the rally. Perhaps the chairs had to be shifted to some other venue for which advance booking had been done. Only the first few rows were full and there could have been a headcount of the people present, while the last rows had empty chairs.

Singer and actor Gurdas Mann, who performed on the stage, managed to involve the small gathering for a while but that was before the PM spoke. Manmohan Singh was the last speaker and clearly the crowd had lost interest by then and had started leaving the venue. This does not augur well for Congress which is trying to overthrow the Akali-BJP regime and Punjab is a crucial election in the run-up to the 2014 polls and could well determine the contours of national politics in the days to come.

Not long time back, during the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, Singh was the face of Congress in not only Punjab but also the rest of the country. Candidates contesting the polls here, invariably had a big smiling picture of the PM in their publicity material even though they had kept the pictures of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi much smaller in size.

I remember covering a rally in Amritsar which Singh addressed with Rahul Gandhi in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. He had already been declared as the PM candidate by no other than Congress President Sonia Gandhi. There was enthusiastic response in the holy city and Congress did not have to use the gimmick of Gurdas Mann to get the interest of the crowd going. It is a different matter that despite the PM campaigning for Congress then, BJP’s Navjot Singh Sidhu won the polls, albeit with a reduced margin.

But not this time round. Captain Amarinder Singh seems to be the “star” campaigner of the party and his pictures have been splashed prominently in all publicity material of Congress rather than that of the Prime Minister. Singh is there as a matter of routine on top of the manifesto paper and some posters, but he does not find a place of pride in the publicity material now.

The PM came to Amritsar on January 1 this year to pay obeisance at the Golden Temple and Durgiana temple but desisted from addressing any political gathering and only met his brother and extended family members. Congress leaders say that there were no requests made to the PMO to have a political function on January 1. The PM, however, had to face a black flag demonstration in Amritsar, apparently from a few members of Team Anna.

Earlier, Singh was invited by the Punjab government, headed by Shiromani Akali Dal, to inaugurate the Khalsa Heritage Centre at Anandpur Sahib, a few weeks before the model code of conduct was enforced in Punjab. Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal gleefully announced that the PM has “accepted” the invitation. Obviously the Akalis would have thought that getting the PM to inaugurate the function would help them in the elections.

But politics of the Congress variety soon took over with Captain Amarinder Singh meeting Sonia Gandhi and seeking her intervention on the issue. He also wrote a letter to the PM asking him not to inaugurate the Centre as it had already been inaugurated once. The PM did not attend the function and no reason was given either, clearly suggesting that he succumbed to the pressure of the local Congress leaders and could not take a stand on the issue on his own.

A senior Akali Dal leader told me that though they did not rake up the issue of PM’s absence, it sent an extremely wrong message ahead of the polls. “The PM was shy of associating with a function related to the panth,” he said, pointing out that the rural voters of Punjab are very sensitive about such issues. He said that Punjabis like “decisive and strong leaders” and after showing initial promise, they do not find such traits in the PM now when he is in his eighth year.

I am not an expert on the psyche of a Punjabi or a Sikh but sensing that Manmohan Singh could be attacked in Punjab, something which the Akalis have desisted from doing all these years, the BJP has now reiterated that he was a “weak” PM and his stature is unbecoming of the coveted post.

“Singh is a weak PM, therefore the Congress as well as its allies interfere in his decisions,” BJP leader Arun Jaitley said in Jalandhar on Friday while campaigning along with the senior Badal for SAD-BJP candidates. Issuing a statement, critical of Singh, was something which the opposition did not do in Punjab earlier. This is the kind of change the election has brought about.

The PM's position has been further deteriorated by the repeated interference of Congress and its allies in key decisions, Jaitley said, though he did not refer to the refusal of Singh to inaugurate the Anandpur Sahib function.

In Punjab, political circles are abuzz with the theory that the Prime Minister could not even get a ticket for Surinder Singla, former Finance Minister of the state. Singla is considered close to Singh and wanted to contest the polls desperately from any constituency which the party offered. He could not get party ticket and no one for sure knows why the ticket was denied to him.

I don’t know whether Singh asked for a ticket for Singla or not. But earlier, such perception itself was a good enough reason for somebody to get party ticket. It seems things are changing for Singh, in Punjab at least. (22.1.2012)

(The writer is Senior Editor, The Pioneer, Chandigarh)

http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/36984-punjab-forgets-punjabi-pm.html

Roads win elections

Amitabh Shukla / Chandigarh

A youth returns to Punjab from abroad after five years. His father offers to take him on a joy ride. The youth is surprised to see a profusion of four-lane roads and is extremely impressed.

He asks his father in anglicized Punjabi what is the reason for the turnaround and his father answers that this was due to “Badal sahib” who has made all the roads of the state as smooth as “butter”.

This is not a story but a promotional radio jingle in Punjabi which the Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP has been using to much effect in Punjab to portray the regime as pro-prosperity, pro-infrastructure and pro-development.

A few years ago, when Lalu Prasad Yadav was ruling Bihar by proxy through his wife Rabri Devi, he was asked about the poor condition of roads in the state then. He promised that he will make the roads of the state look like “Hema Malini’s cheeks”. The opposition was quick to respond that it resembled more like “Om Puri’s cheeks”. The turnaround came when Nitish Kumar became the chief minister and the first thing which he did was to focus on roads and make them the showpiece of development.

Excellent roads have become a poll plank of the ruling SAD-BJP combine which they are projecting in a big way for the Punjab elections. The party has realised that in the vehicle crazy state, where getting into the transport business is a fad, owning the latest cars the signature style of the upwardly mobile and aspiring to drive some day the aspiration of even the poor, good, congestion free roads could get them rich electoral dividend.

Impressed with the road building and pro-development stance of Nitish Kumar, SAD President Sukhbir Singh Badal is seeking votes citing the example of Bihar where the NDA government comprising of Janata Dal United and BJP was voted to power for the second time in a row.

“A repeat mandate was must to continue the pace of development of the state. If people of Bihar were wise enough to repeat the mandate for NDA government, same was expected from wise electorate of Punjab,” Sukhbir Badal said, reiterating that NDA in Punjab was seeking votes on the account of development initiatives of SAD-BJP government.

With Congress claiming lack of development and initiative, Sukhbir offered PCC President and Congress leaders a conducted tour of the state “by road” to show the pace of development. The party did not respond to the offer.

As traffic jams in the major cities of the state was a bugbear for the commuters, SAD-BJP claims that in the last five years, it has built 44 railway over-bridges, underpasses or flyovers while the previous Congress government built only 8 in its tenure from 2002 to 2007. Apart from these, the government claims to have spent Rs 6989 crore in the last five years to lay new roads, strengthen the existing ones and four-laning the roads connecting one district to the other, an expenditure which has now helped it portray a pro-development image.

Roads could be there and driving from say state Capital Chandigarh to Amritsar could be a breeze but what has come as a dampener is steep toll tax. A trip from Chandigarh to Amritsar in a personal vehicle could cost upto Rs 150 one way, but people are not complaining as it saves travel time and fuel and allows them to drive at speed of upto 90 kmph on most stretches.

In fact, travelling by roads is such a fad in Punjab that from Chandigarh there are hardly any takers for the Amritsar bound Duronto express and the Railways decided to withdraw four coaches from the train due to poor response with only 25-30 per cent of the seats on offer getting bookings.

There may not be an established correlation between winning elections and excellent roads but miles of black bitumen in front of a person driving a vehicle with cleanly painted white road dividers on the four-lane expressways in almost all parts of Punjab has been a delight. It has brought the desired momentum in the campaign of the SAD-BJP government, something with which the people of the state can relate to.

Even Congress cannot complain about roads as this is something which a voter uses everyday and sees for himself unlike other developmental projects which could be over hyped by the ruling party and criticised by the opposition. (21.1.2012)

http://dailypioneer.com/home/online-channel/india-pollitick/36609-roads-win-elections.html

No anti-incumbency factor in Punjab, says BJP

Amitabh Shukla / Chandigarh

It is a contest between Parkash Singh Badal’s humility and the arrogance of Captain Amarinder Singh, a senior BJP leader summed up the pre poll scenario in poll bound Punjab.

He said the personality of the two leaders would make a difference in the state where SAD is looking for pro-incumbency votes while Congress is unsuccessfully trying to build an anti-incumbency environment.

The BJP believes that the strike rate of the Akalis would be better as the party has been able to hold on to its core vote bank which has remained with it through thick and thin. BJP, which won 19 of the 23 seats it contested in the 2007 polls, would get a few seats less but still it would not be much different from the last polls. “We cannot win by an innings all the time,” admitted the BJP leader, adding that the strike rate of the party would not go down significantly.

State BJP leadership and think tank within the party believe that “Amarinder has squandered the natural advantage of anti-incumbency” and at this point of time there is no visible anger against the SAD-BJP government which could translate into votes against the coalition.

“For anti-incumbency, you have to annoy and irritate the people. This has not happened,” a senior party leader said.

BJP, which sees Punjab as an important electoral landmark in the run-up to the 2014 general elections, has a lot of hope from the general electoral trend in the rest of the country where the state governments which have performed and have a clean image have been voted back to power.

This includes Raman Singh government in Chhatisgarh, Shivraj Singh Chauhan in Madhya Pradesh, NDA government headed by Nitish Kumar in Bihar, Sheila Dikshit winning three times in a row in Delhi, Narendra Modi performing a similar feat in Gujarat and to some extent Bhupinder Singh Hooda government in neighbouring Haryana.

In the recently held state assembly elections, changes took place only in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Rajasthan, giving the NDA in Punjab hope that people have by and large shown preference for continuity provided the “twin criteria” of performance and clean image is there.

BJP leaders, involved in the nitty-gritty of Punjab polls, believe that the Dera factor in the Malwa region would be crucial in determining the poll outcome and are hopeful amid indications that unlike in 2007, Dera Sacha Sauda, headed by Gurmeet Ram Rahim would not issue a fiat for or against any party. In the previous polls, the Dera asked its followers to vote for the Congress. Not surprisingly, Congress managed to get an impressive 37 seats out of 65 in the region which has been considered a traditional bastion of the Akalis.

Apart from the Deras, BJP is also closely looking at the performance of the Sanjha Morcha led by People’s Party of Punjab President Manpreet Badal, particularly the Left parties which a part of the alliance. Apart from PPP, the Sanjha morcha comprises the left parties which used to have quite a base in Punjab some time back. BJP is looking at how many votes the left parties get in the 20 odd seats they are contesting.

Party leaders reason that whatever votes the Left parties get, would be from the quota of Congress and not from BJP or SAD. “In a close contest, the votes which the left parties get would be crucial in determining the outcome,” a party leader said. He said in the 2007 polls, BJP lost 4 seats out of 23 and the Left did badly in all these seats. But the perception that Sanjha Morcha could do well, good performance of Left would adversely affect Congress.

BSP too would be a factor in the Punjab polls and if it is able to improve upon the 4.16 per cent votes it got last time, SAD-BJP alliance would benefit. Congress and BSP have a common vote base in Punjab and the good performance of one is linked to the bad performance of the other. Party chief Mayawati has planned four rallies in the state, beginning Sunday, to improve on the chances of the “elephant”. (21.1.2012)

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