Do not expect dramatic changes in Congress under Rahul



VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA


The vanishing act of Rahul Gandhi has led to a lot of speculations and triggered a wave of expectations as to what would happen after his return. A case has been made out where old and new Congress leaders are apprehending a series of changes in the party after the heir apparent becomes Congress president sometime in April.

The more the 130-year-old party changes, the more it remains the same. Rahul Gandhi has been an MP for a long time now, also a general secretary for the party for over half a decade and a vice president for over two years. He is de facto the no. 1 in his party even though his mother is the Congress president.

Towards the close of the last term of UPA, the 44-year-old Rahul assumed almost total control of the party in its entire decision making. Sonia Gandhi merely has the veto power as of now. Everyone in the party and even outside it has seen how he functions, how he speaks in public meetings, what kind of role he plays as an MP in Lok Sabha, and what kind of leadership abilities he has shown over the last few years.

So it would be interesting to see what kind of change is brought in the party structure after Rahul assumes complete control and takes decisions independently without the influence of the old guard. Given the way Congress has been functioning over the years and decades and how Rahul has himself worked, I do not visualise any drastic changes and whatever steps are taken by the new dispensation in the party would merely be cosmetic.

For instance when Rahul becomes the president, his mother could be elevated as the patron of the party or another suitable designation could be found for her. It is extremely difficult to visualise Sonia Gandhi retiring from public life completely in favour of her son.

 This has never happened in Gandhi family, no one has ever retired. Jawaharlal Nehru died as a Prime Minister in 1964 and so did Indira Gandhi when she was assassinated two decades later in 1984. Her younger son Sanjay died in a plane crash in 1980 and the elder son Rajiv Gandhi assassinated while leading his party’s campaign to return to power in 1991.

In Congress like most of the parties, ‘Power’ is worship — a glue which binds the party and Sonia Gandhi must have realised this over the years as the longest-serving party president. Retiring from public life in such a situation would perhaps be the last option.

So the point is even if Rahul becomes party chief, Sonia would continue to hold considerable power in the power structure of the party with whatever designation she has. In such a scenario, Rahul will have to abide by the veto power of his mother. If that remains the case, she will continue to have her own set of loyalists in some position of power or the other.

At the most, Rahul would change or reshuffle a few general secretaries and make changes in the AICC Secretariat. Some old Sonia loyalists like Janardan Dwivedi, Motilal Vora and a couple more may find themselves in the cold. Like Narendra Modi’s Cabinet where the age limit is 75 years, he may bring in a retirement policy and fix an age ceiling for the leaders. Some could be forcibly retired by the young and impatient Rahul. But will that change the face of the Congress? Extremely unlikely.

In the last three years, Rahul has taken most of the important decisions of Congress and almost all of them have boomeranged on the party and proved to be non-starters. The first major decision was to single-handedly fight the Uttar Pradesh elections of February 2012.

 Rahul chose all the candidates, carpet bombed UP with a series of meetings and created a hype, something unheard of in the Congress. The disaster was there for all to see with the Congress barely getting over a dozen seats and all Rahul camp followers having egg on their face.   

Of course, the most recent disaster was the 2014 Lok Sabha polls where Rahul was the Prime Ministerial candidate of the party and Congress returned with the most disastrous performance in the history of Indian elections and failed even to get 10 per cent seats and the position of Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha.

There were many electoral reverses all the way where Rahul led from the front and except Karnataka in May 2013, the party failed to win even the State elections anywhere in the country. The situation has come to such a pass in the Congress now that it is finding it difficult to win even the municipal polls in States where it had complete control on all the levels of power not long ago. In fact, changes like making Sachin Pilot the President of Rajasthan Congress was entirely Rahul’s idea.

 It did not change the fortunes of the party where BJP got three-fourths of a majority. Making Ashok Tanwar, the President of Haryana Congress too was the brainchild of Rahul. It didn’t have any impact as BJP swept to power for the first time in the State. In Delhi, Ajay Maken, a hardcore Rahul loyalist, has two successive failures in his report card.

 He was first made the media face of the Congress ahead of the Lok Sabha polls by Rahul and the results were disastrous. Soon, the Congress vice president sent him to Delhi as the chief ministerial candidate of the party by Rahul and he not only lost his seat but the party failed to even open its account in the Assembly.

I am not sure if any decision taken by Rahul has proved to be electorally beneficial for his party in the recent months and years. There is no magic wand for Congress and Rahul. The crisis is deep and is there for all to see. Rahul will have to sweat it out in the dusty lanes and bylanes, villages and cities of the country to build a base for the party afresh.

Instead he chose a vacation for no one knows what. He will have to grind it the hard way, innovate new communication strategy and devise ways and means to connect to the youth.  He will have to lead from the front, counter the ruling party more effectively than he has done till now, be accessible to the party leaders and workers and provide answers to the questions which the people and Congress workers want. The million dollar question: Is Rahul willing to do that? Only he will be able to answer it in the next few months after taking over as the Congress president from his mother, if that indeed is the plan. (March 16, 2015)


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