DELHI elections: The potboiler of politics

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

The advantage or disadvantage, whichever way you look at it, of a standalone election is that everyone gets involved in it to the point of being obsessed. This is perhaps happening with Delhi with almost everyone in the country glued on to the latest potboiler of politics, discussing, dissecting and analyzing the possible outcome.

Recent polls have proved that personalities have their own strength in electoral battles and ability to connect to the people through effective communication skills and oratory add to the abilities of a political leader. Narendra Modi has shown it to the entire world what effective and impromptu communication can do. He has shown that it can win elections handsomely combined with strong issues.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi believes that what Modi is to the entire country, Arvind Kejriwal is to the national Capital. Modi ji aap desh sambhalo, Dilli hum par chhod do (Mr Modi, you take care of the country, leave Delhi for us) is the punch-line which is attracting the people combined with the slogan of Paanch saal Kejriwal (Five years for Kejriwal). The symbolism inherent in similar messages coined by the campaign managers of BJP was quite apparent and effective in the May 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Fast forward it a few months to February 2015 and you find the same is helping AAP gain new grounds now.

BJP knows the pulse of the people better that any other party at this point of time in electoral history. Modi magic is yet to wear off. Victories in assembly polls in states like Haryana and Maharashtra where it was never a serious player suggests so. In Jharkhand, BJP was always a strong player so the victory was not much of a surprise. Now in Delhi, BJP is playing on home turf—a state which has always been a stronghold of the party even since the Jan Sangh. But there is a difference this time round. The Opposition also has a personality which is attracting the people, at least at the local level. Kejriwal too is blessed with a good communication skill and knows how to connect with the people like Modi. He too is an excellent orator like Modi and knows how to involve the people in his speeches like the Prime Minister.

So there you have. An interesting contest is unfolding.  As AAP and Kejriwal had made the battle tough, BJP decided to bring in a general in Kiran Bedi to join the war of personalities. Clearly, it wanted to prevent a war of personalities between the Prime Minister and the former Delhi chief minister and divert it towards Bedi. But there are pitfalls of projecting someone as the chief ministerial candidate as it isolated other claimants for the top job.

Whatever they say in public, BJP aspirants for the job are a dejected lot and some of them see themselves becoming irrelevant in Delhi politics forever if she indeed wins and occupies the top job. Someone like say Dr Harsh Vardhan, Jagdish Mukhi, or a couple of more leaders, may not have excellent oratory or communication skills but they are well networked in the party, having worked for it for decades. It is this section which is disappointed, has serious reservations on Bedi and sees a dark future for it once she becomes the chief minister. If the BJP old guard is not enthusiastically participating in the electoral battle, it should be seen as a natural human tendency.

The old guard of BJP still has some hope. If BJP wins, Bedi would be the chief minister. But they also know that she would find it extremely difficult to survive in the world of politics as she is strong headed, non-compromising and self opinionated individual. Bedi had always been a very poor subordinate, known for her thumbs down approach toward her seniors in the IPS. She has never been stable in any of her postings in the past except perhaps as DG Tihar Jail and in the United Nations. In both the places, she was hardly expected to report to anyone. But in politics, you have to be answerable to every party worker, MLA and Minister. So some in the BJP say that even if the party wins and she becomes the Chief Minister, it will be extremely difficult for her to survive beyond six months.

And what if there is a hung assembly and BJP is precariously close to the majority. Obviously in such a situation you need a hard-nosed politician well heeled in the local party affairs to win support of Independents and others. Bedi does not fit the bill there too and that leaves a chance for those who have worked up their way in BJP for decades.

Looking beyond electioneering, what is surprising is BJP putting all it has in the polls for a state which is yet to get full statehood. Modi is addressing a series of rallies himself and so is party chief Amit Shah. Top Cabinet ministers of the government and chief ministers of BJP ruled states are out campaigning and seeking votes. Ministers are addressing press conferences every day and asking Kejriwal questions, effectively turning it into a battle of personalities rather than issues. Clearly, the party itself is to blame for making it a David versus Goliath election. In sporting events, people always tend to support the underdog and though politics may not play out as sports, the underdog nevertheless here is AAP.

Interestingly, AAP has no star campaigner except the party boss himself, little funds to match the bigger parties, has faced a series of desertions, comprises largely of amateurs with little experience of politics, but its fighting instinct is not only intact but also strong. Perhaps this is born out of agitation and the ability to charter a path which is not marked and lineated. Surveys before the polls suggest a battle of equals which indicates how AAP has managed to hold on to its support base despite Modi emerging as the hero of the middle class in all parts of north and west India.

Though Modi’s honeymoon with the voters of the country continues and people have little or no grudge against the central government as of now, people of Delhi have a chance to compare the performance of other BJP state governments which were formed in the recent months. There is a growing realization that there is little or no break from the past government models and governance in states like Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand where BJP won recently. Citing those states, AAP is promising a break from the past models of governance and change. This is perhaps attracting the people in Delhi and helping AAP retain its support base in the Capital. 

For Congress, whose entire vote base of the minorities, residents of unauthorized and Jhuggi-Jhopri colonies, urbanized villages and a section of the middle class, has shifted to AAP, it is indeed a tough time. There is nothing for the party to show that it is on the revival mode. The latest controversies surrounding leaders of the old guard—Janardan Dwivedi (praise of Modi) and now Jayanthi Natarajan (allegations against Rahul Gandhi) has once again shown how it has become a house divided. The party requires time, opportunity and new strategy to take Modi-Bedi combine in Delhi and Kejriwal. Of course this needs time, another five years before Congress becomes battle ready. Till then, it would remain in political hibernation. (February 2, 2015)

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