VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
Assembly elections in Punjab
may be a little over two years away but the political manoeuvrings, with an eye
on possible permutations and combinations have already started. The game of
one-upmanship is expected to get all the more intense this year as BJP, the
alliance partner in the Government, is looking for a place under the sun on its
own, without the strong crutches of Shiromani Akali Dal.
The posturing for break-up from
BJP in Punjab is real. It has all the ingredients which
broke the quarter of a century old alliance with Shiv Sena in Maharashtra .
Almost every BJP leader whom you talk to in Punjab is
ready for the eventuality, motivated and hopeful as they are due to the
emergence of brand Modi all over the country. They hope and genuinely believe
that the Modi magic which worked so well in neighbouring Haryana, Jammu region
of J&K and in Rajasthan in both Lok Sabha and Assembly polls and in
Himachal Pradesh in the Lok Sabha elections, would work wonders in Punjab as
well. These are the States with which Punjab shares its
boundary.
No wonder Punjab
politics is going for a rapid tailspin. BJP is trying to occupy the Opposition
space despite being in the Government as it has been consistently questioning
several decisions of the Punjab Government for a while now. It is also looking to cash in on possible
anti-incumbency votes against the Government after a possible split with Akali
Dal, perhaps a year before the Assembly polls. Moreover, BJP is also looking
into the possibility of some senior Congress and Akali leaders joining the
party to give it a foothold in the rural and semi-urban areas of the State.
Congress does not know how to
react to the emerging ground situation due to the cold vibe between the
alliance partners SAD-BJP and also BJP eating into the urban vote base of the
party. Even though Congress in Punjab is split between
Capt Amarinder Singh and Partap Singh Bajwa, both have a genuine fear. They do
not want BJP to split from Akali Dal as this would divide the anti-incumbency
votes which Congress hopes to pocket alone. In fact, Punjab
remains the only hope for Congress high command in the near future for a
national comeback as this is one State where the vote base of the party has not
shrunk beyond a point. Perhaps, party Vice President Rahul Gandhi kept this in
mind while nominating his Giderbaha MLA, Amarinder Singh Raja Warring as the
President of the Indian Youth Congress.
But what has come as a surprise
to many is the acrimonious relationship between ruling partners Akali Dal and
BJP soon after Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister. While BJP got a booster
dose of confidence following the results, Akali Dal felt slighted soon after as
it felt it was not kept in loop in decision making on matters pertaining to Punjab .
When Manmohan Singh was the Prime
Minister, Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal had made it a habit of meeting him
once a month with a list of demands which he then tom-tommed in Punjab .
The situation has now changed as Modi preferred to meet Badal only in official
meetings with other Chief Ministers of the country rather than having one to
one with him and acceding to his list of demands. Badal might have hoped that with his alliance
partner at the helm in New Delhi ,
he will have easier access and more concessions for the cash strapped State.
Nothing of that sort has happened as some in the Akali Dal now say that
Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister was more receptive to the demands of the State
rather than Modi.
With drugs issue dominating
politics of the State, the relationship has only turned bitter. Top leaders of
Punjab BJP demanded the resignation of Bikram Majithia when he was summoned by
Enforcement Directorate for questioning, triggering protest from SAD which
retaliated by saying that the party was not following coalition dharma. The
relationship of mistrust started after verbal volleys of former Amritsar MP,
Navjot Singh Sidhu. The Akali Dal thought that despite Sidhu repeatedly
targeting the father son duo of Parkash Singh Badal and Sukhbir Singh Badal,
top BJP leadership never reprimanded Sidhu. The SAD leadership thinks that, he
was allowed to attack the chief minister and the Deputy Chief Minister along
with Revenue Minister and Majha strongman Bikram Majithia as part of some
hidden political strategy.
As Akali Dal too fears that it
may well have to go alone in the next polls, it has started hardening its stand
on the so called “panthic” agenda or the issues pertaining specifically to the
Sikh community, mostly religious issues. So far, the party under the moderate
Sukhbir Badal had desisted from such issues and had even tried to broad base
its support by fielding several Hindus. The Sant Samaj and Jathedars of the
Takhts are gradually raising issues which had been lying dormant for a while
and it’s no secret that they are influenced by Akali Dal.
One of the issues is the release
of Sikh prisoners in various jails of the country. Supporting the Sant Samaj,
Badal has written to Home Minister Rajnath Singh giving a list of all the
prisoners, accused of terror acts. He wants them released saying they have
completed their sentence. BJP does not agree to this and has never supported
Akali Dal on the issue.
Similarly, there is a black list
of around 65 Sikhs, maintained by the ‘Foreigners Division’ of the home
ministry which Akali Dal wants to be scrapped or reviewed. Sukhbir Badal has
already written to the Home Minister saying this was causing harassment to
Sikhs because it was full of discrepancies and inaccuracies. BJP is in no hurry
on the issue as it has been terming those in the list as terrorists. While the
Akali Dal wants this list to be done away with, Punjab BJP wants it to continue
as it is. BJP believes it has names of several terror accused and leaders
against whom there are cases in the country.
The third issue of conflict is
the demand of the organisations supported by the Akali Dal for an amendment in
Article 25(B) of the Constitution. This says that reference to Hindus shall be
construed as including a reference to persons professing the Sikh, Jain or
Buddhist religion, and the reference to Hindu religious institutions shall be
construed accordingly. BJP leaders in the state say that they won’t be
surprised if the SAD officially asks the Centre to bring a Constitutional
amendment in Article 25(B) demanding to separate identity to Sikhs.
Another possible conflict zone is
the attempt of RSS and its affiliates for what they call Ghar Wapsi
(conversion) programme in Punjab . A function has already
been held in Amritsar district
where Mazhabi (lower caste and dalit) Sikh families who had converted to
Christianity were converted back to Sikhism under the watchful eye of the RSS.
A similar function was scheduled for Bathinda but due to the Opposition of
local Akali leaders, no Christian family turned up. Such ghar wapasi programmes
have invited the ire of the chief minister who has openly voiced his concern
for conversions in the country. He says that the Sikh Gurus were against any
conversion and fought against it all their lives.
What is clear from the posturing
of Akali Dal and BJP in Punjab is that both are looking
to flourish without the support of each other. Both parties traditionally
complement each other in the state with BJP having support base in the urban
Hindus and the Akali Dal being primarily a rural party with the support of Jat
Sikhs and the landholders. This combination has served them well for a long
time now but now leaders say that the formula may no longer work as both the
parties have breached the support base of each other in recent months.
Interestingly BJP has been
electorally successful whenever long term alliance partners have left the
party. In Bihar when JDU left the 17-year old alliance,
BJP gained. In Maharashtra where Shiv Sena chartered an
independent path ahead of the assembly polls after leaving the 25-year old
alliance, BJP again made rapid strides. It hopes for a similar electoral gains
in Punjab and that perhaps explains the storm in the
relationship of the two parties. (January
5, 2015 )
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