Amethi-Raebareli models versus Gujarat model

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

The electorate of the country seems to have made a decision and there is little doubt left that Congress is on its way out and NDA almost ready to occupy the office space of Prime Minister at South Block along with the ministerial buildings in Lutyen’s Delhi.

As the Congress is headed for its worst ever defeat in the last 62 years, BJP is headed for its best ever in the 34 years of its formation after 1980. It must indeed be gratifying for those involved in the formation of BJP after the fiasco of the Janata Party that from two seats in 1984 versus 410 seats of the Congress, it is headed to form the next Government in the Centre.

Demoralised workers of the Congress versus enthusiastic workers of the BJP tell the story in various parts of the country, which are yet to go to polls. Despite 10 years of rule, the party workers and candidates of the ruling party do not know how to approach the electorate and with what. Despite a manifesto, they do not know what promises to make and to which section. They are putting up a brave face even though they know what is in store for them. 

Sometimes, I am amazed at the way Congress is brazenly mocking at the Gujarat model of development. Agreed that the Gujarat model is for the big Capital but at the end of the day, it has generated employment  opportunities, increased the GDP of the State, enhanced tax collection and general prosperity with several ancillary units coming up to supplement the bigger industries. Of course, Gujarat was always a developed State and Narendra Modi perhaps played no more a role than that of a catalyst. The Gujarat model may also have its limitations and cannot be implemented in States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal where local economy has to be factored in for any scheme. But to out rightly reject it, the way Congress is doing, is simply amusing to say the least.  

Now, compare it with the Amethi and Raebareli models of development, patented by the Congress. Here, I have travelled extensively and amazed at the backwardness of the region despite electing Congress Prime Ministers, Congress presidents and vice-presidents since decades. Remember, Indira Gandhi represented Raebareli while her son Sanjay Gandhi and later Rajiv Gandhi represented Amethi. The same is the situation now, with mother-son representing the two constituencies — Raebareli by Congress president and Amethi by its vice-president.

All you see here in vast rural landscape of the two constituencies are remnants of petrol pumps. The party and its Government only allotted petrol pumps, LPG dealership and kerosene depots to their followers over the years. The concentration is so dense that there are petrol pumps and LPG dealers every 2-km in the two constituencies — something unheard of anywhere in rural India. In the twin constituencies, primarily rural, the vehicle penetration is so low that a lot of these petrol pumps have either closed down or exist just for the sake of it as many cater to not more than 2-3 vehicles a day. So this is the model of development of Amethi and Raebareli.

Then in all these decades when the two constituencies of UP have been electing Prime Ministers, Congress presidents and de facto Prime Ministers, all they have got are a few showpiece like a flying academy here or a footwear institute there, a railway coach factory now and a hospital. Some private sector investment did come after Rajiv Gandhi won in 1984 and became Prime Minister but then the industrialists got land at a throwaway price and wanted other concessions from the then Congress Government. They set up temporary shades, started some manufacturing in huge gated and walled complexes and gradually abandoned them. All of them are now firmly closed even as some are being used as prime real estate. 

In short, that is Amethi and Raebareli models of development where power always plays truant, you have to walk a considerable distance to get to a cyber café or eat a hygienic meal in a hotel. You will be lucky to find a decent hotel with power back up and without mosquitoes for company. The roads remain bumpy and the situation worsens in the monsoons.

Whenever I visited the two constituencies in the past, I always wondered what have the Gandhis done for the area to command absolute loyalty of the voters. Except for the Sanjay Gandhi Hospital in Munshiganj (Amethi) where the health service is top class, there is nothing modern in the entire area. You do not have to be a statistician or a sociologist to map the backwardness of the area. It speaks loud and clear as soon as you enter the two constituencies. A local Congress worker once told me the secret behind Sanjay Gandhi Hospital. Rahul Gandhi stays in its guesthouse whenever he visits the constituency and that is the reason it gets some attention and patients are taken care off through a trust.

This makes me wonder, if you cannot even improve the lifestyle of the people who have been voting you for decades and are loyal followers, what will you do for the country? You have been taking the people of Amethi and Raebareli for granted, not for a year or two but for decades — four decades. Paternalism of the royal style is not going to help here. This is what you have been doing for decades, make a flash visit, appear in a wedding function, wave from your SUV, eat a lunch on the roadside for photo-op, sit on the ground for a while and then disappear to the comfort of your home in New Delhi. People of the country have seen through this façade.

The Amethi and Raebareli models glorify poverty, teach you how to live with minimum resources and also tell you not to aspire for anything — jobs, better education, modern life style, electricity, etc. I would take the risk of being termed cynical, but perhaps there is a vested interest is keeping the people in the trap of poverty to command their loyalty. It is like the royal families of the country who still command respect in the small areas which they ruled decades ago. Rooted in poverty and superstition, they still revere the descendants of the Rajas and Maharajas out of habit.

But gradually old habits are changing and this is discernible on the ground. For the first time, in 2014, the Gandhi family has perhaps become a liability for the Congress in many places. There are perhaps only two States where Congress is holding on its own against the onslaught of the NDA and the regional parties this time. These are Assam and Punjab. While in Assam, Tarun Gogoi is the name instead of the Gandhi family, in Punjab each Congress candidate is holding on to the battlefield without the baggage of the Gandhi family. In fact, the saying in Punjab is that you should avoid a rally of a member of the first family of the Congress in your constituency to improve your prospects.

The bigger question now is that will the Gandhi family take the blame if Congress is reduced to double digits in the Lok Sabha election?

As Rahul Gandhi has taken over the party, his stamp is visible everywhere and is the de facto prime ministerial candidate of his party, he will have to be brave and candid enough to take on the responsibility. If the Congress fares well despite the odds, Rahul has to be given credit and if the party fails badly and reduced in the double digits, you cannot merely blame Manmohan Singh for that and emerge unscathed.

After May 16, Rahul Gandhi needs to reinvent himself and the Congress. The old idioms and phrases of governance, with which he is rooted, is not working in this age and era. Despite being relatively young and two decades younger than Narendra Modi, he could not make a dent in the youth segment and first time voters. He will now have to think what will his role be as a Leader of Opposition and how to use that role to strengthen the party and himself for the next battle in 2019. (April 28, 2014)

 http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/amethi-raebareli-models-versus-gujarat-model.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/2014-04-27-49218.html

Reluctant Generals and eager soldiers in Punjab

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Punjab is headed for a photo finish. After facing successive defeat in every election in the last few years, the Congress has surprisingly sprung up and is back on its feet after a long time.

The voter in the State faces a peculiar problem. It is anti-incumbency of the SAD-BJP Government of seven years in the State versus that of 10 years of the Congress led UPA in the Centre. They have a tough choice in hand — to decide whose performance has been poorer — State Government or that of the Central Government. Though it is a Lok Sabha election, the voters in the State with 13 seats are closely scrutinising the performance of the ruling SAD-BJP combine besides that of the UPA in the centre.

Though the Congress fielded reluctant Generals in the battle who gave all excuses to be left out of the fray, they took on the battlefield after the party high command cracked the whip to make them fall in line. Top names contesting the polls rejuvenated the party cadre and they sank their internal differences against the common enemy. Unlike many other States where the Congress has been decimated once and for all by regional parties, Punjab has a solid anti-Akali Dal voter base which goes to the Congress and even in worst defeat, the vote percentage of the party does not go down below a point or two.

Capt Amarinder Singh from Amritsar, Partap Singh Bajwa from Gurdaspur and even Sunil Jakhar from Ferozepur never wanted to contest in the first place as they are more interested into State politics rather than that of the Centre. While both Capt Amarinder and Bajwa want to become the Chief Minister of the State after 2017 Assembly polls if the party manages a win, Jakhar was busy with his role as Leader of Opposition in the State Assembly. A local Congress leader put it brilliantly on the reluctance of State leaders to contest polls, “It is better to rule the roost on your home turf than get dictated in New Delhi as one amongst the dozens of MPs.”

But after the party leadership insisted, threatened, cajoled and finally fielded them, the moribund Congress workers got galvanised and saw an opportunity against the SAD-BJP regime. The workers realised that the party was serious in contesting the polls rather than just a mute spectator, the way it had been in local body, panchayat and civic elections. Talk to the workers of the Congress in Punjab and they will tell you that all bitterness and party infighting has been forgotten for the big battle this time. “For a month, there is no faction, there is no rivalry and there is no complaint against rivals within the party. Factionalism may come to the fore again after the polls but now the party is projecting a united face,” said a middle level Congress worker in the State headquarters in Chandigarh.

Manish Tewari, the sitting MP and face of the Congress on television may not have contested from Ludhiana citing health reasons but he was never considered a regional leader as he had built his profile as a national leader of the party. So, his absence from the battlefield is not even being noticed. Another political masterstroke of the Congress was fielding Ambika Soni, a close confidante of Congress chief Sonia Gandhi and the party cadre of the State were left with no doubt about the seriousness of the poll effort. Also being a Lok Sabha poll, there were few contenders for the 13 seats and except someone here or there, it is difficult to find a disgruntled Congress leader affecting the party’s prospects unlike the last Assembly polls when there were almost two dozen rebels in the fray.

On the other hand, SAD-BJP combine is facing the fatigue factor after a long time. Several schemes and announcements of the State Government are merely on paper and successive victory has made leaders of the ruling combine arrogant, particularly in rural areas. A slew of charges have been made against the ruling combine and its Ministers, a few of them have stuck with the voters.

In Amritsar, even the BJP supporters say that had the party fielded sitting MP Navjot Singh Sidhu, the margin of his loss could have been over a lakh given the resentment and anti-incumbency he was facing for being an absentee and permanently complaining MP. Now when party stalwart Arun Jaitley is the BJP-SAD candidate, some of the anti-incumbency and anger prevalent against Sidhu is directed against him as well. In urban areas of Amritsar, the Congress is expected to do well while Akali Dal votes in rural areas may help Jaitley. But there is no doubt that an extremely tough battle lies ahead of Jaitley in his first electoral outing.

In the holy city, Capt Amarinder, a veteran of many a political battle, has brought in his core team as this is a battle for his political survival and not merely a Lok Sabha poll. If he wins, he will be back as the top Congress leader in Punjab and could well be the chief ministerial candidate in the next elections. If he loses, all his muscle flexing and bravado would go for a six and his political career would practically be finished.

Punjab is the only State where both husband and wife are in fray. Capt Amarinder’s wife Preneet Kaur has a relatively easy outing in Patiala, a seat which has been a Congress stronghold for quite some time. In the last Lok Sabha polls, Capt Amarinder’s son Raninder contested from Bathinda parliamentary constituency and lost to Harsimrat Kaur Badal. So for the last two elections, two members of Amarinder’s family have been contesting the polls. So given the situation and tough fight, only the outcome of two seats can be predicted, one each for the Congress and SAD — Preneet Kaur from Patiala and Harsimrat Badal from Bathinda. Manpreet Badal, the estranged nephew of Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal may be the Congress’s choice but he is under attack and finding it difficult to fend questions.

The third candidate who could win again is Ambika Soni from Anandpur Sahib, a seat which was with the Congress even in the last election. Her opponent Ranjit Singh Brahmpura has been dubbed as a serial loser due to a losing streak in the last few elections he contested.

In the remaining 10 seats, it is touch and go like the 2009 parliamentary polls when the victory and loss margin was quite low. It was merely 8,300 votes in Gurdaspur, 6,800 in Amritsar and merely 366 in Hoshiarpur. The Modi factor may swing the votes a percentage point here or there but by and large, local issues are dominating the national polls in this State which goes to polls on April 30. (April 21, 2014)

 http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/reluctant-generals-and-eager-soldiers-in-punjab.html

 http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/2014-04-20-48358.html

Unholy power sharing arrangement exposed

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Recently, I wrote a column on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and how lackluster his tenure has been and how ineffective he has become over a period of time. I also wrote how he has lost his political relevance in the only state where he could have made a difference which is Punjab. Another column in a space of just a few weeks on a similar subject would not have been needed. But the new circumstances triggered it.

I do not think that even Manmohan Singh would argue nor would the PMO spokesperson say that he is from Assam and not from Punjab. No one would believe that he hails from the north-eastern State even though he has been a member of the Rajya Sabha for over a decade from there and has obtained a residence proof to get elected to the Upper House. No one in the country would also believe that he contributed to the success of his party in Assam where Tarun Gogoi has done what no Congress leader has managed in recent years — win three consecutive Assembly polls.

So now when his second tenure has practically ended, no one in the country would believe that he was ever in control of the Government, except perhaps for a few weeks when he ensured the passage of the now irrelevant Indo-US nuclear deal. As no one in the country would believe if Singh’s spokesperson says that he contributed to the victory of Congress in his adopted state of Assam, similarly they would not believe if told that he actually ran the show from 7 Race Course Road for a decade as per the division of powers enshrined in the Indian Constitution.

That Singh has no control on Government and party was the worst kept secret of New Delhi. Every single MP of Congress, top bureaucrats and power brokers knew this and so did the journalists who frequent 24 Akbar Road and also sit on the pavements opposite 7 Race Course Road waiting for that elusive bite after every Congress Core Group meeting. All of them know that 10 Janpath cleared 2004 and 2009 cabinet formation, reshuffle of Ministers in between, key appointments, gubernatorial posts and even appointments in the PMO to keep a tab on the working of the Prime Minister.

The book of Sanjaya Baru, The Accidental Prime Minister: The Making and Unmaking of Manmohan Singh has only confirmed what everybody knew. Apart from stating the obvious, the book has for the first time come out with graphic details on how the office of the Prime Minister was devalued in the last 10 years, how the democratic principles enshrined in the Indian Constitution was flouted with impunity.

The Indian Constitution framed by the then Constituent Assembly may have comprised mostly Congressmen and women but it never made the provision that Congress President would be more powerful than the Prime Minister of the country. This is what happened — we all saw it and now an insider provides all the details to confirm what we suspected. 

The Constitution never provided that the Prime Minister sign on the dotted line, become a rubber stamp, stop thinking, abdicate all responsibility and semblance of authority  and act subservient to the head of a political party. If nothing, Dr Manmohan Singh is guilty of violating what has been enshrined in the Constitution.

Even the President of the country, though titular head, has the powers to refuse signing a Bill on the first instance and seek clarifications from the government. The Prime Minister did not even have this authority in his 10 years in the job. So was he worse than a rubber stamp? This is what I feel after going through the excerpts of Baru’s book. As Baru was Media Adviser to the Prime Minister, responsible for his image management, a key official in the PMO for four years, 2004-08, his words do carry weight even if the current PMO dismisses his book as fiction or driven by commercial considerations.

I am wondering what forced a man like Singh to get reduced to something worse than a rubber stamp. One has to coin a new phrase for that. After his first tenure, he could have easily moved on to the Motilal Nehru Marg residence and prevent his honour from getting sullied. He did not do so. Along with Congress President Sonia Gandhi, clearly Manmohan Singh too is guilty of not adhering to the principles laid down in the Indian Constitution. This is extremely troublesome and does not bode well about the checks and balances in the system.

In the 1970s, Indira Gandhi, the mother-in-law of Sonia Gandhi, misused her authority and imposed Emergency in the country. She did this when she saw a political tsunami hitting her Government in the form of JP movement and discontent due to rising prices, unemployment, a mismatch between expectations and the reality and the High Court verdict declaring her election as illegal.

But when Indira Gandhi curtailed the freedom of everyone, at least the provision of imposing Emergency was there in the Constitution. She may have been ethically and morally wrong to impose emergency but followed what had there been enshrined in the Constitution. But three decades later, what Sonia Gandhi and Congress headed by her did to Singh, is something which is not there in the Constitution. Clearly, both Sonia Gandhi and Singh stand guilty of devaluing the Constitution and making arrangement for sharing a power which was without any legal basis.

It now emerges that it wasn’t even a dual centre of power arrangement as was widely believed — the only centre it seems was the Congress President. She and her loyalists decided everything except perhaps the appointment of Section Officers in the Government. While Singh was a part of her Secretariat in having a role in the decisions in his first tenure, he was shunted out from the coterie in the second tenure.

Baru’s book makes it clear that Sonia Gandhi was the de facto Prime Minister even though Singh was sworn in for the job. This was the arrangement from the very beginning and I am sure before handing over the reins to Singh, he must have been told do’s and don’ts. He must also be aware of the fate of PV Narasimha Rao, how he initially started as a rubber stamp, how he gradually emerged from the shadows of 10 Janpath and stamped his authority.

Singh must also be aware that the defiance of Rao led to a reaction and he was dumped, a rebellion was engineered against him and his after his death, he was not given even a stoppage at the party headquarters and how in the annals of Congress history, he has been forgotten as if he never existed. (April 16, 2014) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/unholy-power-sharing-arrangement-exposed.html

Decoding Haryana: Can Cong defy anti-incumbency wave

Amitabh Shukla / Chandigarh

Haryana has been a Congress bastion for the last 10 years and both in 2004 and 2009 when the party formed government at the Centre, the state proved to be the proverbial key to New Delhi. While the party won all 10 seats in 2004, it got an impressive nine seats in the 2009 polls.

Ten years of anti-incumbency, both at the Centre as well as the state, has taken a heavy toll and Congress looks weary and jaded in the state, finding it difficult to handle the onslaught of the BJP driven by its Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. BJP has traditionally been weak in the land where Arya Samaj had a great influence and still dominates the socio-religious consciousness of the people. The party has always preferred to go into alliance with a regional player due to its limited presence in the rural area. This time, it is in alliance with the Kuldeep Bishnoi led Haryana Janhit Congress.

Main Opposition Indian National Lok Dal is facing an identity crisis with two of its top leaders—the father-son duo of Om Prakash Chautala and Ajay Chautala in jail for over a year after being convicted in the teacher’s recruitment scam. Younger son Abhay Chautala is steering the party but except for certain pockets, the party’s hold is on wane. In the last two elections, INLD failed to win even a single Lok Sabha seat and this time it is hopeful of a better performance and has high hopes from Hisar. The fourth generation of Devi Lal’s family—Dushyant Chautala, grandson of OP Chautala is pitted here against another dynast, Kuldeep Bishnoi, son of the tallest non-Jat leader of the state, Bhajan Lal. 

With election campaign coming to an end in the state, all eyes are now on polling on April 10. We take a look on the issues and the seats in the state. 

ISSUES

Jat Reservation: No one in Haryana thought that Jats would be declared backward as they are the dominant caste—socially, economically and politically. They control the reins of power with the Chief Minister from the community and also the Leader of Opposition.  However, the Bhupinder Singh Hooda government thought otherwise and took help from UPA in the Centre to declare Jats as OBCs. Expecting to reap rich political dividends, the move, however fizzled out within a few weeks.  The Jats do not know how it will benefit them, if at all. They are still not sure how it will be implemented and the quantum of benefits under OBC quota. So, even though Congress has made it an election issue and hammers the point through, Jat reservation has become a non-issue in the Jat land of the country.

Khaps: Made infamous due to a series of honour killings, every political party seeks their support, most of them covertly and some openly for electoral success. There is no doubt that they influence the voting pattern in the countryside in the well knit society where family and caste play an important role in determining social identity of a person. But it is equally true that the support of around a dozen and half Khaps is divided. While some of them support Congress, others support INLD and there are some within the khaps who are supporting BJP as well, particularly in 2014 elections. A lot of khaps want to be on the winning side this time round and their leaders are exploring options of getting closer to those who they think would be on the winning side. The prominent khaps amongst the Jats keep claiming that they are apolitical in nature but it is an open secret that their leaders openly sympathise and support political parties. One of the most important demands of most of the Khaps is banning of same gotra marriage by making amendments in the Hindu Marriage Act. No party is opposing this. In fact, no leader would utter a word against them and all praise their “social activism”.

Sympathy wave: INLD is trying to create a sympathy wave in favour of their jailed leaders Om Prakash Chautala and Ajay Chautala. An emotional letter purportedly written by the senior Chautala has been distributed by the party all over the state to generate a sympathy wave. The party has been blaming the Congress and its control on the CBI to highlight how its leaders have been targeted. Younger son, Abhay Chautala is trying hard and is touring the entire state to salvage something for the party. He has already declared unconditional support for Narendra Modi and the party is expected to support BJP if it managed to buck the trend of last two Lok Sabha polls and win a seat in the state.

Anti incumbency: Bhupinder Singh Hooda has been in power for two terms as Chief Minister and the state would go to assembly polls in October this year, soon after the Lok Sabha polls. Hooda’s tenure coincided with that of the Congress in the Centre and there is double anti-incumbency in the state. In the 2009 Assembly polls, Congress did not get a majority and was struck at 40 in the 90 member assembly. Political maneuvering and power deals saw the disintegration of HJC and merger of 5 of its members in Congress and support of Independents. Questionable land deals of Robert Vadra, the son-in-law of Congress President Sonia Gandhi and a series of criminal cases against MLAs supporting Hooda, has severely dented the prospects of the party affecting its chances in the polls. 

CONSTITUENCIES

1.     Ambala: Dalits comprise over 7 lakh voters, Punjabi 2.25 lakh and Brahmin 1.38 lakh in the constituency which borders Chandigarh and Himachal Pradesh. After sitting MP Selja got a Rajya Sabha nomination and left the battle before it began, Congress has fielded Raj Kumar Valmiki a political novice. He is pitted against BJP veteran and former MP Rattan Lal Kataria. Little known Kusum Sherwal has been fielded by INLD which many say is an attempt to indirectly help the BJP. Combined with Modi wave, BJP has a clear advantage here. 

2.     Karnal: No particular community has a sway here as Dalits comprise 2.5 lakh voters, Punjabi also 2.5 lakh and Jat 1.87. Two-time MP Arvind Sharma (2004 and 2009) would be contesting for the third time against Ashwini Chopra of BJP, Jaswinder Sandhu of INLD and Maratha Virendra Verma of BSP. Initially, Haryana Janhit Congress was allotted the seat under its poll pact with BJP and it wanted to field Venod Sharma. When his entry was blocked in the HJC by Sushma Swaraj, Kuldeep Bishnoi fielded his brother Chander Mohan. The candidature was withdrawn after a controversy broke out and the seat was then given to BJP as it fielded Chopra, the newspaper baron. Only a Modi wave could see Chopra through in a tough battle. 

 3.     Bhiwani-Mahendragarh:  This is a typical rural constituency with Jat voters around 3.75 lakh and Ahir voters around 2.90 lakhs alongwith 1.44 lakh Brahmins. Sitting MP Shruti Chaudhry, the grand daughter of architect of modern Haryana, Chaudhary Bansi Lal, faces Dharambir Singh of the BJP who switched sides just a day before he got the BJP ticket. Both are Jats. INLD candidate and sitting MLA Rao Bahadur Singh, an Ahir may get advantage in case Jat votes are divided.

4.     Kurukshetra: It was here that the Mahabharata took place but this time the battle is for Lok Sabha. Dalit voters are 3.10 lakh, Jat 2.46 lakh, Punjabi 2.40 and Brahmin 1.24. Two-time MP Naveen Jindal who won in 2004 and 2009 is facing Raj Kumar Saini of BJP and Balbir Saini of INLD. Coal Block allocation scam is an issue which the opponents of Jindal are using against him.

5.     Sonepat: Bordering Delhi, this is a typical Jat dominated seat with the community comprising almost 5 lakh voters. There are around 1.5 lakh Brahmins as well here. Sitting Congress MP Jitender Malik refused to contest fearing anti incumbency, forcing the party to choose sitting MLA from Gohana, Jagbir Malik. His opponents are Ramesh Kaushik of the BJP, a Brahmin, who was earlier two-term MLA of the Congress. Padam Singh Dahiya is the INLD candidate. Pradeep Sangwan, son of BJP veteran and three-term former MP, Kishan Sangwan has revolted after a Congress import was given BJP ticket and is expected to divide the saffron votes. AAP candidate Jai Singh Bawala is also a Jat. Wrong ticket selection may hurt BJP. 

6.     Faridabad: Another seat on the Delhi border, where Jats comprise 2.16 lakh voters, Gujjar 1.84, Brahmin 1.17 and Punjabi 1.10. Sitting MP Avtar Singh Bhadana of Congress, who has won three time faces sitting MLA Krishan Pal Gujjar of BJP and R K Anand of INLD. Anti-incumbency is staring at Bhadana even though he is a veteran and this could give the BJP candidate an outside chance. The INLD candidate is an outsider, a prominent Delhi lawyer, earlier in the Congress.  

7.     Sirsa: This is a Dalit dominated seat with 7.2 lakh voters from the community, followed by Punjabi 3.48 and Jat 3.37 lakh. Sitting MP and Haryana Congress President Ashok Tanwar, a close confidante of Rahul Gandhi, faces party hopper Sushil Indora, now in HJC and Charanjit Singh Rori of INLD. Gandhi addressed a meeting here in support of Tanwar, who also headed the NSUI and IYC earlier. Indora is giving a tough fight to Tanwar who wanted to shift to Ambala initially.  

8.     Rohtak: This is one constituency where the Jat community has a complete sway with 6.25 lakh voters and Congress is almost sure to win it again. Two-time MP Deepender Hooda, though recuperating in Delhi due to spinal injury, would be contesting for the third time from the family bastion. In 2009 he won by 4.45 lakh votes, the highest in the state, BJP has put Om Prakash Dhankar, President of its Kisan Morcha, INLD Shamsher Kharkada and AAP Naveen Jaihind. Deepender may not have much of a fight here.  

9.     Hisar: The only seat where the sitting MP is not from Congress. Kuldeep Bishnoi of HJC won the seat in a bye-election after his father died. It is a Jat dominated constituency with around 5 lakh voters, followed by dalits 3.25 lakh.  Bishnoi of HJC, a non-Jat, is pitted against Dushyant Chautala of INLD, fourth generation of Devi Lal’s family and Sampat Singh of Congress. Yudhvir Khyalia a former IAS officer is AAP candidate from the home town of Kejriwal. Bishnoi is banking on polarisation of non-Jat votes but here Chautala too is quite strong. A tough battle ahead.

10.     Gurgaon: Dominated by Ahir and Meo Muslim voters, both around 2.75 lakh each, sitting MP Rao Inderjit Singh of Congress changed sides on the eve of elections and is now the BJP candidate.  Rao Inderjit has won three times from here and was a minister in UPA I. He faces Rao Dharampal, sitting MLA of the Congress, Zakir Hussain of INLD and the intellectual face of AAP Yogendra Yadav. Inderjeet enjoys a distinct edge. (April 9, 2014) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/decoding-haryana-can-cong-defy-anti-incumbency-wave.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/nation/decoding-haryana-can-cong-defy-anti-incumbency-wave.html

   

A tale of two cities within Chandigarh

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Chandigarh is an interesting case study for electoral politics. It is a typical urban seat, perhaps a rare constituency in the country where an overwhelming number of electorate is not interested in civic issues — bijli, sadak, paani or development. This is the Chandigarh divided into sectors where quality of urban life is good, there is hardly any expectation from the local MP and the voting preference is decided on who can do what for the country.

There is another Chandigarh — the city of overcrowded colonies, villages and a few slums where the inhabitants do have a lot of expectation from the elected representative. Though their numbers are less in the overall percentage of the city, they are very vocal and demanding. The late migrants want to move from the slums to the one-room accommodation which the Government provides under a housing scheme. Those in the slums want better living condition, jobs, more BPL cards etc. This is the Chandigarh where the service providers of the sectors live — maids, car cleaners, drivers, hawkers, rickshaw and auto-rickshaw drivers, carpenters, tea and cigarette sellers etc. 

The planners of the first planned city of the country made a cardinal sin. Though they divided the city into grids to carve out the sectors, they forgot to provide space and accommodation for the service providers for these affluent sectors. The subsequent Master Plans too not only failed to look at the problem of the service providers but also failed to recognise their existence. It is only now that some one-room houses are being provided to the old migrants, leaving the newer migrants to curse their representatives.

Again, the developed Chandigarh where civic issues are a non-issue is almost 3/4th of the total electorate while the demanding Chandigarh is only 1/4th of the electorate. However, as the poor Chandigarh lives in densely populated areas, the candidates find it easier to address rallies here and get a decent audience for their political rallies.

The voting preference of those living in the sectors is largely on national lines this time — who would be in power in New Delhi and whether Narendra Modi would shift to 7 Race Course Road or not, the official residence of the Prime Minister. In the slums and colonies on the outskirts of the city, Modi is too distant a figure, visible on the flex banners and publicity material of the BJP as they grapple to find pieces of their lives by working and slogging everyday in the sectors.

At the weekend evening, I decided to attend an election campaign meeting of BJP candidate Kirron Kher to decipher what prospects she had in the election when pitted against veteran Pawan Kumar Bansal and Gul Panag of AAP.

So there I was, in a fairly large housing society in the southern sector of the city where Kher was to address the last meeting of the day. Two hours before the scheduled public meeting, an announcement was made on a loudspeaker tied to an auto rickshaw. Pamphlets too had been distributed to the residents asking them to hear the BJP candidate and then take a call on whom to vote.

At the venue, it was a festive atmosphere with bottled water was being served to those who had gathered along with steaming tea by uniformed waiters. The children who had gathered in large numbers, got soft drinks and saffron caps with ‘Modi for PM’ written boldly on them and the BJP scarves. They wanted to see “Kirron aunty” who judges kids on TV and gives prizes. The housewives were yet to cook their evening meal but enjoying the hot pakoras being served by the waiters along with tea. For them, it was a festive get together of sorts and wanted to upload the event on their Facebook status and share the pictures on WhatsApp.

The local leader started speaking to warm up the audience. “You just used Chinese pichkari on Holi. Earlier it was Chinese diya and candles on Diwali. The Chinese are making even our gods and goddesses and selling them in India. Congress rule of last 10 years has killed enterprise and production in the country,” said the warm-up speaker, adding that “China would be the happiest country if Congress comes to power and would start crying if Modi becomes the Prime Minister”. Many shopkeepers and businessmen in the gathering started clapping.

Motivated, another warm-up speaker upped the ante. “See, only Modi can give a befitting reply to the Chinese and the Americans by promoting manufacturing and restoring the glory of the country which was known as the golden bird in ancient times.” The 500 odd people gathered there were primarily BJP supporters, middle and upper middle class with each household having on an average two cars. None of them had concerns like erratic power supply, overflowing sewers, broken roads or lack of schools or health facilities. The only problem raised from the podium which I could gather was an overcrowded PGI where the people from the city can’t get treatment due to long queues and Bansal failing to do anything.  Of course, Bansal and corruption has become synonymous in the city with BJP doing all it can to tarnish the sitting MP with the Railgate scam.

After a delay of an hour, an announcement was made that Kirron Kher had arrived. BJP supporters started bursting crackers (perhaps Chinese) and sending colourful rockets to the sky. It was like the arrival of a baraat. Kher was ushered in on the stage even as the women and the boys jostled to capture her on their smart phones so that they are the first with their status update on Facebook.   

“I am a daughter of Chandigarh. My father’s name is Colonel…My house no. is…in Sector…,” she started, quickly going on to say that the people would be electing Modi as the Prime Minister by voting for her. She quickly denounced the Aam Aadmi Party, “Kudi changi hai, party kharab hai” (The girl (Gul Panag) is good but the party is bad), she adds. Kher speaks in a language which is half Hindi and half Punjabi, asking people not to waste their votes and how Modi was the only hope in the country. She has the gathering by her side and they shot “Modi for PM” with her. After initial hiccups, BJP has picked up pace and garnered support for Modi and not for Kher in the sectors — the affluent Chandigarh. Now let us shift to Ram Darbar Colony near the industrial area of the city — a mix of a village, unauthorised colony and a slum. This is one of the underbellies of the City Beautiful where all those maids, cleaners, drivers, rickshaw pullers, workers in service stations, carpenters, electricians, plumbers, tea and cigarette sellers etc come to the sectors to make the life of the people comfortable, live.  One room is available on rent for Rs1,500 and three people easily share the room. So if you earn Rs4,000 a month, give Rs500 as shared rent, spend Rs1,000 on food and kitchen fuel, cycle to work and you can still save Rs2,500 if you do not drink alcohol, chew tobacco or gutka.

This is one place where all the four main contestants — Kher, Bansal, Panag and Jannat Jahan of the BSP — have visited at least twice each. They are promising the moon to the voters.  These include housing to those who migrated late, more BPL cards, more subsidies, concrete roads, fixing the sewers and improving water supply, admission to children under freeship in public schools, opening a bigger dispensary in the vicinity etc. In fact, they are promising whatever they can and whatever the voters ask.

Saffron caps of ‘Modi as PM’ have already been distributed and so has the trademark AAP cap. Though Congress does not have a cap to boast of, it has been the preferred choice of the people for a long time here as Bansal has local representatives who facilitated people getting voter ID cards, Aadhaar cards, BPL cards and most importantly, admission of their children in the public schools. Some of these representatives are always on the winning side and have shifted to BJP sensing that it has a better chance this time round. AAP and Arvind Kejriwal too have vocal supporters who think that if the party is in power, they would get all they want — free house, free consultation at private hospitals and free books and uniforms of public schools. For the first time, Ram Darbar is divided into three segments — one each supporting Congress, AAP and BJP. But despite all odds, Bansal still has an edge here.

So, there we are. Two separate cities within Chandigarh with different mood and voting preferences. If you go by sheer arithmetic, the prosperous Chandigarh’s choice has a distinct edge. But this section prefers to stay home and enjoy their holiday on polling day. If the other Chandigarh ventures out in large numbers on April 10, Bansal and Congress could still salvage something from the wreckage. But at the moment, the first Chandigarh has the momentum and so has the BJP. (April 7, 2014)

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/a-tale-of-two-cities-within-chandigarh.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/2014-04-06-46717.html