VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
The voter in the State faces a
peculiar problem. It is anti-incumbency of the SAD-BJP Government of seven
years in the State versus that of 10 years of the Congress led UPA in the
Centre. They have a tough choice in hand — to decide whose performance has been
poorer — State Government or that of the Central Government. Though it is a Lok
Sabha election, the voters in the State with 13 seats are closely scrutinising
the performance of the ruling SAD-BJP combine besides that of the UPA in the
centre.
Though the Congress fielded
reluctant Generals in the battle who gave all excuses to be left out of the
fray, they took on the battlefield after the party high command cracked the
whip to make them fall in line. Top names contesting the polls rejuvenated the
party cadre and they sank their internal differences against the common enemy.
Unlike many other States where the Congress has been decimated once and for all
by regional parties, Punjab has a solid anti-Akali Dal
voter base which goes to the Congress and even in worst defeat, the vote
percentage of the party does not go down below a point or two.
Capt Amarinder Singh from Amritsar ,
Partap Singh Bajwa from Gurdaspur and even Sunil Jakhar from Ferozepur never
wanted to contest in the first place as they are more interested into State
politics rather than that of the Centre. While both Capt Amarinder and Bajwa
want to become the Chief Minister of the State after 2017 Assembly polls if the
party manages a win, Jakhar was busy with his role as Leader of Opposition in
the State Assembly. A local Congress leader put it brilliantly on the
reluctance of State leaders to contest polls, “It is better to rule the roost
on your home turf than get dictated in New Delhi
as one amongst the dozens of MPs.”
But after the party leadership
insisted, threatened, cajoled and finally fielded them, the moribund Congress
workers got galvanised and saw an opportunity against the SAD-BJP regime. The
workers realised that the party was serious in contesting the polls rather than
just a mute spectator, the way it had been in local body, panchayat and civic
elections. Talk to the workers of the Congress in Punjab
and they will tell you that all bitterness and party infighting has been
forgotten for the big battle this time. “For a month, there is no faction,
there is no rivalry and there is no complaint against rivals within the party.
Factionalism may come to the fore again after the polls but now the party is
projecting a united face,” said a middle level Congress worker in the State
headquarters in Chandigarh .
Manish Tewari, the sitting MP and
face of the Congress on television may not have contested from Ludhiana
citing health reasons but he was never considered a regional leader as he had
built his profile as a national leader of the party. So, his absence from the
battlefield is not even being noticed. Another political masterstroke of the
Congress was fielding Ambika Soni, a close confidante of Congress chief Sonia
Gandhi and the party cadre of the State were left with no doubt about the
seriousness of the poll effort. Also being a Lok Sabha poll, there were few
contenders for the 13 seats and except someone here or there, it is difficult
to find a disgruntled Congress leader affecting the party’s prospects unlike the
last Assembly polls when there were almost two dozen rebels in the fray.
On the other hand, SAD-BJP
combine is facing the fatigue factor after a long time. Several schemes and
announcements of the State Government are merely on paper and successive victory
has made leaders of the ruling combine arrogant, particularly in rural areas. A
slew of charges have been made against the ruling combine and its Ministers, a
few of them have stuck with the voters.
In Amritsar ,
even the BJP supporters say that had the party fielded sitting MP Navjot Singh
Sidhu, the margin of his loss could have been over a lakh given the resentment
and anti-incumbency he was facing for being an absentee and permanently
complaining MP. Now when party stalwart Arun Jaitley is the BJP-SAD candidate,
some of the anti-incumbency and anger prevalent against Sidhu is directed
against him as well. In urban areas of Amritsar ,
the Congress is expected to do well while Akali Dal votes in rural areas may
help Jaitley. But there is no doubt that an extremely tough battle lies ahead
of Jaitley in his first electoral outing.
In the holy city, Capt Amarinder,
a veteran of many a political battle, has brought in his core team as this is a
battle for his political survival and not merely a Lok Sabha poll. If he wins,
he will be back as the top Congress leader in Punjab and
could well be the chief ministerial candidate in the next elections. If he
loses, all his muscle flexing and bravado would go for a six and his political
career would practically be finished.
The third candidate who could win
again is Ambika Soni from Anandpur Sahib, a seat which was with the Congress
even in the last election. Her opponent Ranjit Singh Brahmpura has been dubbed
as a serial loser due to a losing streak in the last few elections he
contested.
In the remaining 10 seats, it is
touch and go like the 2009 parliamentary polls when the victory and loss margin
was quite low. It was merely 8,300 votes in Gurdaspur, 6,800 in Amritsar
and merely 366 in
Hoshiarpur. The Modi factor may swing the votes a percentage point here or
there but by and large, local issues are dominating the national polls in this
State which goes to polls on April 30. (April 21, 2014)
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