Amitabh Shukla / Chandigarh
Haryana has been a Congress
bastion for the last 10 years and both in 2004 and 2009 when the party formed
government at the Centre, the state proved to be the proverbial key to New
Delhi . While the party won all 10 seats in 2004, it
got an impressive nine seats in the 2009 polls.
Ten years of anti-incumbency,
both at the Centre as well as the state, has taken a heavy toll and Congress
looks weary and jaded in the state, finding it difficult to handle the
onslaught of the BJP driven by its Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi.
BJP has traditionally been weak in the land where Arya Samaj had a great
influence and still dominates the socio-religious consciousness of the people.
The party has always preferred to go into alliance with a regional player due
to its limited presence in the rural area. This time, it is in alliance with
the Kuldeep Bishnoi led Haryana Janhit Congress.
Main Opposition Indian National
Lok Dal is facing an identity crisis with two of its top leaders—the father-son
duo of Om Prakash Chautala and Ajay Chautala in jail for over a year after
being convicted in the teacher’s recruitment scam. Younger son Abhay Chautala
is steering the party but except for certain pockets, the party’s hold is on
wane. In the last two elections, INLD failed to win even a single Lok Sabha
seat and this time it is hopeful of a better performance and has high hopes
from Hisar. The fourth generation of Devi Lal’s family—Dushyant Chautala,
grandson of OP Chautala is pitted here against another dynast, Kuldeep Bishnoi,
son of the tallest non-Jat leader of the state, Bhajan Lal.
With election campaign coming to
an end in the state, all eyes are now on polling on April 10. We take a look on
the issues and the seats in the state.
ISSUES
Jat Reservation: No one in Haryana thought that Jats would be declared
backward as they are the dominant caste—socially, economically and politically.
They control the reins of power with the Chief Minister from the community and
also the Leader of Opposition. However,
the Bhupinder Singh Hooda government thought otherwise and took help from UPA
in the Centre to declare Jats as OBCs. Expecting to reap rich political
dividends, the move, however fizzled out within a few weeks. The Jats do not know how it will benefit
them, if at all. They are still not sure how it will be implemented and the
quantum of benefits under OBC quota. So, even though Congress has made it an
election issue and hammers the point through, Jat reservation has become a
non-issue in the Jat land of the country.
Khaps: Made infamous due to a series of honour killings, every
political party seeks their support, most of them covertly and some openly for
electoral success. There is no doubt that they influence the voting pattern in
the countryside in the well knit society where family and caste play an
important role in determining social identity of a person. But it is equally
true that the support of around a dozen and half Khaps is divided. While some
of them support Congress, others support INLD and there are some within the
khaps who are supporting BJP as well, particularly in 2014 elections. A lot of
khaps want to be on the winning side this time round and their leaders are
exploring options of getting closer to those who they think would be on the
winning side. The prominent khaps amongst the Jats keep claiming that they are
apolitical in nature but it is an open secret that their leaders openly
sympathise and support political parties. One of the most important demands of
most of the Khaps is banning of same gotra marriage by making amendments in the
Hindu Marriage Act. No party is opposing this. In fact, no leader would utter a
word against them and all praise their “social activism”.
Sympathy wave: INLD is trying to create a sympathy wave in favour
of their jailed leaders Om Prakash Chautala and Ajay Chautala. An emotional
letter purportedly written by the senior Chautala has been distributed by the
party all over the state to generate a sympathy wave. The party has been
blaming the Congress and its control on the CBI to highlight how its leaders
have been targeted. Younger son, Abhay Chautala is trying hard and is touring
the entire state to salvage something for the party. He has already declared
unconditional support for Narendra Modi and the party is expected to support
BJP if it managed to buck the trend of last two Lok Sabha polls and win a seat
in the state.
Anti incumbency: Bhupinder Singh Hooda has been in power for two
terms as Chief Minister and the state would go to assembly polls in October
this year, soon after the Lok Sabha polls. Hooda’s tenure coincided with that
of the Congress in the Centre and there is double anti-incumbency in the state.
In the 2009 Assembly polls, Congress did not get a majority and was struck at 40 in the 90 member assembly. Political
maneuvering and power deals saw the disintegration of HJC and merger of 5 of
its members in Congress and support of Independents. Questionable land deals of
Robert Vadra, the son-in-law of Congress President Sonia Gandhi and a series of
criminal cases against MLAs supporting Hooda, has severely dented the prospects
of the party affecting its chances in the polls.
CONSTITUENCIES
1. Ambala:
Dalits comprise over 7 lakh voters, Punjabi 2.25 lakh and Brahmin 1.38 lakh in
the constituency which borders Chandigarh
and Himachal Pradesh. After sitting MP Selja got a Rajya Sabha nomination and left
the battle before it began, Congress has fielded Raj Kumar Valmiki a political
novice. He is pitted against BJP veteran and former MP Rattan Lal Kataria.
Little known Kusum Sherwal has been fielded by INLD which many say is an
attempt to indirectly help the BJP. Combined with Modi wave, BJP has a clear
advantage here.
2. Karnal:
No particular community has a sway here as Dalits comprise 2.5 lakh voters,
Punjabi also 2.5 lakh and Jat 1.87. Two-time MP Arvind Sharma (2004 and 2009)
would be contesting for the third time against Ashwini Chopra of BJP, Jaswinder
Sandhu of INLD and Maratha Virendra Verma of BSP. Initially, Haryana Janhit
Congress was allotted the seat under its poll pact with BJP and it wanted to
field Venod Sharma. When his entry was blocked in the HJC by Sushma Swaraj,
Kuldeep Bishnoi fielded his brother Chander Mohan. The candidature was
withdrawn after a controversy broke out and the seat was then given to BJP as
it fielded Chopra, the newspaper baron. Only a Modi wave could see Chopra
through in a tough battle.
3. Bhiwani-Mahendragarh: This is a typical rural constituency with Jat
voters around 3.75 lakh and Ahir voters around 2.90 lakhs alongwith 1.44 lakh
Brahmins. Sitting MP Shruti Chaudhry, the grand daughter of architect of modern
Haryana, Chaudhary Bansi Lal, faces Dharambir Singh of the BJP who switched
sides just a day before he got the BJP ticket. Both are Jats. INLD candidate
and sitting MLA Rao Bahadur Singh, an Ahir may get advantage in case Jat votes
are divided.
4. Kurukshetra:
It was here that the Mahabharata took place but this time the battle is for Lok
Sabha. Dalit voters are 3.10 lakh, Jat 2.46 lakh, Punjabi 2.40 and Brahmin 1.24.
Two-time MP Naveen Jindal who won in 2004 and 2009 is facing Raj Kumar Saini of
BJP and Balbir Saini of INLD. Coal Block allocation scam is an issue which the
opponents of Jindal are using against him.
5. Sonepat:
Bordering Delhi , this is a
typical Jat dominated seat with the community comprising almost 5 lakh voters.
There are around 1.5 lakh Brahmins as well here. Sitting Congress MP Jitender
Malik refused to contest fearing anti incumbency, forcing the party to choose
sitting MLA from Gohana, Jagbir Malik. His opponents are Ramesh Kaushik of the
BJP, a Brahmin, who was earlier two-term MLA of the Congress. Padam Singh
Dahiya is the INLD candidate. Pradeep Sangwan, son of BJP veteran and three-term
former MP, Kishan Sangwan has revolted after a Congress import was given BJP
ticket and is expected to divide the saffron votes. AAP candidate Jai Singh
Bawala is also a Jat. Wrong ticket selection may hurt BJP.
6. Faridabad Delhi
border, where Jats comprise 2.16 lakh voters, Gujjar 1.84, Brahmin 1.17 and Punjabi
1.10. Sitting MP Avtar Singh Bhadana of Congress, who has won three time faces
sitting MLA Krishan Pal Gujjar of BJP and R K Anand of INLD. Anti-incumbency is
staring at Bhadana even though he is a veteran and this could give the BJP
candidate an outside chance. The INLD candidate is an outsider, a prominent Delhi
lawyer, earlier in the Congress.
7. Sirsa:
This is a Dalit dominated seat with 7.2 lakh voters from the community,
followed by Punjabi 3.48 and Jat 3.37 lakh. Sitting MP and Haryana Congress
President Ashok Tanwar, a close confidante of Rahul Gandhi, faces party hopper
Sushil Indora, now in HJC and Charanjit Singh Rori of INLD. Gandhi addressed a
meeting here in support of Tanwar, who also headed the NSUI and IYC earlier.
Indora is giving a tough fight to Tanwar who wanted to shift to Ambala
initially.
8. Rohtak:
This is one constituency where the Jat community has a complete sway with 6.25
lakh voters and Congress is almost sure to win it again. Two-time MP Deepender
Hooda, though recuperating in Delhi
due to spinal injury, would be contesting for the third time from the family
bastion. In 2009 he won by 4.45 lakh votes, the highest in the state, BJP has
put Om Prakash Dhankar, President of its Kisan Morcha, INLD Shamsher Kharkada
and AAP Naveen Jaihind. Deepender may not have much of a fight here.
9. Hisar:
The only seat where the sitting MP is not from Congress. Kuldeep Bishnoi of HJC
won the seat in a bye-election after his father died. It is a Jat dominated
constituency with around 5 lakh voters, followed by dalits 3.25 lakh. Bishnoi of HJC, a non-Jat, is pitted against
Dushyant Chautala of INLD, fourth generation of Devi Lal’s family and Sampat
Singh of Congress. Yudhvir Khyalia a former IAS officer is AAP candidate from
the home town of Kejriwal . Bishnoi
is banking on polarisation of non-Jat votes but here Chautala too is quite
strong. A tough battle ahead.
10. Gurgaon:
Dominated by Ahir and Meo Muslim voters, both around 2.75 lakh each, sitting MP
Rao Inderjit Singh of Congress changed sides on the eve of elections and is now
the BJP candidate. Rao Inderjit has won
three times from here and was a minister in UPA I. He faces Rao Dharampal,
sitting MLA of the Congress, Zakir Hussain of INLD and the intellectual face of
AAP Yogendra Yadav. Inderjeet enjoys a distinct edge. (April 9, 2014)
No comments:
Post a Comment