VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
I am not an astrologer nor do I
believe in predictions. But there is something which I can predict pretty
safely and chances are that I would never go wrong on this. You guessed it
right—Rahul Gandhi would be the Prime Minister of the country some day. If that
sentence looks vague then I would say that it looks a distinct possibility or
rather impossible in 2014, but could very well be possible in 2019, 2024, in 2029 or anytime in between
if the incumbent government is of Third Front variety.
Predicting the future Prime
Minister of the country in a democracy in any other country of the world five
or ten years from now is extremely difficult and risky. Ask someone in Britain
or Australia to
name the person who is certain to become the Prime Minister after the present
one and all you would get is blank faces. Ask someone who will be the President
of the United States
after Barrack Obama’s second tenure and again you would be greeted by blank
stares. No one, not even the best poll analyst or astrologer would stick his
neck out and predict that. But in the case of India
it is rather easy, not only for me but almost anyone who lives in the country
and follows politics even remotely can predict that Rahul would be the Prime
Minister one day.
In fact, the day Rahul was
elected as an MP from Amethi the entire country knew that one day he would
assume charge as the Prime Minister. As the de facto head of the Congress, a
party which has ruled the country for over half a century since Independence ,
he obviously has a realistic chance of becoming the PM one day.
The AICC session at Talkatora
Stadium in Delhi merely endorsed
what most people in the country already knew. You did not have to be a
political journalist with sources deep inside Congress to know that a Prime
Minister nominated by the Congress after Manmohan Singh, had to be Rahul
Gandhi. Whether you officially declare him to be your candidate or un-officially
declare it, or camouflage it with several words and phrases, the reality
remains the same. Dynasty is so well
entrenched in Congress that the psyche of an average Congress person is
completely dominated by the thought that only a Gandhi can be their leader and
no one else.
Remember when PV Narasimha Rao
was the Prime Minister and was not endorsed by the Gandhi family, he is not
even in the footnotes of Congress history. He has not only been forgotten but
even dumped by the in-house historians of the Congress. Of course, Manmohan
Singh would find a place in the Congress honor list, at least for sometime as
he was duly endorsed first by Sonia Gandhi and later by her son and heir
apparent Rahul Gandhi.
But already a campaign has begun
to disassociate the party from the Manmohan Singh regime and its acts of
omission and commission. Sooner or later you would find Manmohan Singh’s legacy
in the dustbin of Congress. Without demolishing the structure of the Manmohan
Singh regime, Rahul and his cheerleaders would not build their edifice. The
economist Prime Minister would be the fall guy after the summer of 2014 if the
party looses or wins. If Congress wins, all credit would go to Rahul and if the
party looses, and the chances are that it will, the blame would obviously go to
the Prime Minister. That is the way Congress party is structured, that is the
way an average Congress person and leader thinks, Rahul is no exception.
Not making Rahul the Prime
Ministerial candidate of the party was deliberate. The top ideologues of
Congress did not want to fall in the trap of BJP and make the 2014 battle Rahul
versus Narendra Modi like the Presidential elections of United
States .
If Rahul is battered in such a direct contest, the morale of an average
Congress person would become so low that their belief in the dynasty would be
shaken. This is what the party wanted to avoid and keep the flock together till
2019 or 2024 when Rahul would realistically have a go at the chair of Prime
Minister after a stint in Opposition. In any case, one’s leadership skills is
tested and honed more when in Opposition than in the ruling party.
Ask the Congressmen and they will
obviously tell you that Rahul delivered one of his finest speeches at the AICC
session. But the speech was delivered to a captive audience comprising entirely
of Congress leaders and workers. Ironically, the cheerleaders of Rahul clapped
whenever Rahul started shouting and increased his tone and tenor of speech. I
failed to understand why the supporters or the cheerleaders of Rahul treat it
like an IPL match when the cheerleaders of the team start waving and dancing
whenever a batsman hits a ball to the boundary or whenever a wicket of the opponent
falls. Come on, this was an in house function and the only neutral people on
the venue were journalists covering the event.
There was nothing in the speech
of Rahul which could throw some light in the direction in which the party was
heading under him. In any case, from the very beginning there has been a huge
gap in what the scion of the Gandhi dynasty says and what he practices.
“I am a loyal soldier of the
party…I will do what the party asks me…The opposition has good marketing
skills…They are selling combs to bald people…” was what he said and more. There
was no substance only rhetoric which the cheerleaders lapped up not only at the
venue but even in the television studios.
On Rahul, the AICC session
reminded me of an event of the Indian Youth Congress in Nainital district of
Uttarakhand in 2009. In
the function Rahul said that he abhors “dynasty, patronage and money” in
politics urging the youth to join politics through democratic process and
internal elections of NSUI and IYC. The same dynasty has made him the de facto
prime ministerial candidate of the party, patronage has made him what he is and
of course the role of money is there for all to see. I still fail to understand
why Rahul spoke the words he did in Nainital if he was the beneficiary of the
same ills he spoke of. I am yet to find
answer to this one and several other speeches and acts of Gandhi where there
was a day-light between what he said or preached and what he practiced. (January 20, 2014)
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