VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
Forget opinion polls and study of
voter behaviour, the results of Assembly elections in four states—Rajasthan,
Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi — weeks before the Lok Sabha elections,
would be first and true indicator of the way political wind is blowing in the
country.
Together, these four States send
72 members to Lok Sabha and in the 2009 polls, Congress had a distinct edge,
getting 41 members elected from these States while the BJP had to be content
with only 29 seats. Clearly, percentage wise the size of Congress victory and
its margin over BJP in these four States was more or less similar to the one it
had at the national level where it formed the government. Congress got 204
seats while the BJP had to do with 117 which saw Manmohan Singh getting a
second term as Prime Minister.
Given the sample size of actual
voting in the four States headed for Assembly polls, which also includes the
metropolitan city of Delhi , the two
main parties must be closely watching the countdown to Assembly elections to
get a feel of the voter’s pulse and their heart beat. There is little doubt
that whoever wins the most Lok Sabha seats in these states will form the next
government in Delhi , the way it
happened in 2009.
Of course, voting mindset and
pattern differ from Assembly elections to Lok Sabha elections, but in these
four States, voting pattern in both Assembly polls in 2008 and Lok Sabha polls
in 2009 was more or less similar. This was perhaps due to the fact that there
was a difference of only six months in voting for Assembly polls and the Lok
Sabha polls in all these four states. In six months, the voter behaviour does
not change much.
Congress which was in power in
Rajasthan at the time of Lok Sabha election in 2009, got an impressive 21 of
the 25 Lok Sabha seats while the BJP performed poorly getting only 3 seats. In Delhi ,
where Sheila Dikshit has carved out a Congress bastion for almost 15 years, BJP
was completely wiped out, failing to open its account as Congress won all the
seven seats.
In the BJP bastion of
Chhattisgarh where Raman Singh was firmly in saddle, the saffron party won an
impressive 10 of the 11 seats with Congress getting the remaining one. In
Madhya Pradesh, Congress sought to make a comeback by getting 12 of the 29
seats. BJP got 16 even though it was ruling the State and even in Assembly
polls had performed impressively.
Given the current scenario, of
the four states going to Assembly polls in December this year, three could see
BJP forming the Government and with a little luck and effort even the fourth
could be in its grip. There is little to doubt that BJP will get back to power
for the third consecutive term in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh given the
fact that Congress has more or less washed its hands off the two states. Though
Congress has several towering leaders from Madhya Pradesh—Digvijay Singh,
Jyotiraditya Scindia, Kamal Nath amongst others, it does not have the State in
its radar of victory as of now. In Chhattisgarh, the setback by the Maoists
killing top Congress leaders is a factor but even before that the party had
done little to counter Raman Singh government. His model of Food Security and
efficient administration despite large Maoist presence, can clearly win him
another term without much of an electoral struggle.
In Rajasthan, anti incumbency is
set to take a toll on the Ashok Gehlot Government as the state has seen
incumbent governments being voted out in recent years. Even in the last
Assembly polls in December 2008, Congress just managed to scrape through despite
a bitter infighting in BJP and its victory was hardly impressive. Now when,
Vasundhara Raje is raring to go with BJP uniting behind her, Congress would
find it difficult to retain the State.
The most interesting battle would
perhaps be in Delhi Assembly elections. Three terms of anti-incumbency of the
State Government and two terms of the Central Government has had some impact
but not enough to ensure the defeat of Sheila Dikshit in the national
Capital. Though BJP won all the three
municipal corporations in the Municipal elections, infighting and inability to
find the winning formula has kept the party in the backseat. If it comes out
with a trump card in the remaining four months and the voters indeed want to
punish Dikshit for her acts of omission and commission pertaining to
Commonwealth Games, then BJP might have the final word. But even if BJP wins,
it will be more due to voter fatigue and the disappointment with 10 years of
UPA rule than anything else. In either case, Delhi
promises to be a photo finish and is being watched closely.
Given this scenario, it would not
be surprising to see BJP in 2014 Lok Sabha polls getting close to what Congress
got in 2009, something in the range of 38-42 seats with Congress getting in the
range of 26-30 seats in the four States of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh,
Chhattisgarh and Delhi. These four States would see a direct fight between the
two main claimants of power in 2014—Congress and BJP and there is practically
no presence of any other party. The Aam
Aadmi Party would make a political debut in Delhi
and remains an untested phenomenon though unlikely to affect the outcome.
Bahujan Samaj Party started well in Madhya Pradesh but has lost the script now.
In Chhatisgarh and Rajasthan, there is no party worth the name except Congress
and BJP.
If BJP did well in all the states
and manages to form Government in at least three, this would be an ominous sign
for the Congress in the Lok Sabha elections. If it wins all the four, the
writing would be on the wall. There is a section in the Congress which believes
that Lok Sabha elections could be advanced to be held simultaneously with the
Assembly polls in these four states so that there is no adverse fallout. They
also believe that Samajwadi Party could pull out at the earliest given an
opportunity and Congress should preempt that possibility and prevent SP getting
an edge in Uttar Pradesh by announcing early Lok Sabha polls. Whatever the case
may be, in the final analysis, the results of these four states would indeed
prove to be the true indicator as to who would rule from New
Delhi for the next five years starting May 2014. (August 12, 2013)
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