VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
Narendra Modi was doing fine as
the Campaign Committee chief of the BJP though there were tremors of minor
magnitude all around. The sulking LK Advani created ripples for a while but it
subsided after a few headlines. As expected the Janata Dal United walked out of
the alliance but the impact may be marginal.
But one interview which he gave
to Reuters has been the subject of hundreds of interpretations. Almost everyone
is interpreting it with their respective ideological and political baggage. But
the damage seems to have been done. The Modi baiters clearly managed to interpret
the interview to their advantage and made the secular-communal debate shriller
ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.
Modi had so far managed to avoid
media and refused to give interviews something which the Congress trio of Sonia
Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Manmohan Singh has done throughout their respective
careers. The Prime Minister, however, has given “controlled” interviews where
the line of questions was obviously reverential. I do not remember Sonia Gandhi
and Rahul speaking their mind out in any interview so far though they have
addressed a few press conferences. Obviously, this is a political master
stroke. Though no one knows what they think on crucial national issues,
politics, economy or international relations, the mystery element keeps them
going.
Perhaps Modi wanted to
“demystify” himself in the run-up to the polls and gave an interview which is
now widely seen as a trigger of further polarisation on communal lines. No one
would be happier than the Congress which has been fighting a losing battle all
these four years on the back of a series of scams, misgovernance, badly run
economy and a crisis of credibility.
The interview of Modi has shifted
the goal post, at least for the time being. A politician like Modi would have
known how each and every word he speaks is open to varied interpretations and
clearly he did not choose his words carefully. He would also know that whatever
he says is scrutinised in terms of secular-communal idiom and here he should
have learnt lessons from the trio of Sonia-Rahul and Manmohan who never speak
on anything significant. However, hard you try; you cannot interpret anything
from what they speak.
By shifting the debate from
misgovernance and corruption to the secular-communal platform, Congress has
outsmarted BJP when time was running out for the ruling party in the Centre.
Given the dynamics of Indian politics and the reality existing on the ground,
only alliances would help either the BJP or the Congress to head the next
government at the Centre. It is here that the grand old party of the country
has sought to pin down the Modi led BJP. The more the
secular-communal debate gets
shriller in days to come, the more Congress would gain in terms of new allies
at the cost of the BJP.
A senior bureaucrat, well versed
in the nuances of Indian politics, has analysed the voting pattern and the
number of seats which the BJP got after the 1989 Lok Sabha elections in each of
the State, considered its stronghold. He chose the best performance of BJP in
every state since that election to arrive at the conclusion that even if the
saffron party manages to repeat its best performance in each state (like
winning over 50 seats in UP once, over 20 seats in Gujarat once and most of the
seats in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Chattisgarh), the tally would not
cross 250. Obviously, there is no such wave for the BJP at this juncture to
repeat its best performance in the last 24 years in each of these States.
So from where do the numbers
come? It has to come through the regional players and the post election give
and take could be crucial here. But when the agenda on which the election is
fought is converted into a debate on secularism and communalism, BJP would be
in a distinct disadvantage.
If one starts from the biggest
state of Uttar Pradesh which sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha, both the main
parties BSP and Samajwadi Party are allied with the Congress. SP would never
back the BJP given its ideological moorings and vote base. BSP has done
business with the BJP in the past but it seems unlikely at this juncture. So
will the BJP manage to cross 50 seats in the largest State of the country? Even
the most optimistic BJP supporter would rule it out. For the BJP, it has been
the law of diminishing returns in UP and Modi or Amit Shah may not help the
cause beyond a point.
In Bihar ,
which sends 40 members to the Lok Sabha, BJP may gain a seat here or there from
what it has right now. But the gains would be offset by the loss due to JDU
going away and likely to support Congress.
In West Bengal
while the Left Front is ruled out, Mamata Banerjee has been a part of previous
NDA Government. But even when she was a part of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee
Cabinet, she created one problem after the other, the way she did to the
present UPA government before walking out. BJP would need a lot of convincing
skill to persuade Banerjee and she will weigh her options carefully before
lending support as this would alienate a section of her minority vote bank in
the State.
Odisha’s Naveen Pattnaik did
support BJP but since then a lot of water has flown in the Ganges
and is happy ensconced as a freelancer of Indian politics. He is likely to
remain aloof — maintaining equidistance from both Congress and BJP.
In Andhra Pradesh, none of the
two main parties — headed by Chandra Babu Naidu and Jaganmohan Reddy would
support BJP. The third party TRS mat support it provided BJP comes out with an
open support for Telengana. In Maharashtra , the seats
have been traditionally divided by four parties — Shiv Sena, BJP, NCP and
Congress. There is little to indicate that this time it would be different.
There is a possibility of AIADMK
supporting Modi led BJP but that is perhaps the only silver lining in the
entire political dynamics being played out. In Karnataka, BJP has gone for a
six and even if Yeddyurappa joins it, the fortunes are not likely to change
much.
So BJP managers would be
wondering from where the allies would come to help Modi form the government
even if the party does exceptionally well and gets over 160 Lok Sabha seats.
They know it well that 180 seats of BJP under Modi is equivalent to 130 seats
by the Congress as the Sonia Gandhi led party could have allies ranging from
Left to SP, BSP, DMK, JDU and others just on the name of keeping the “communal
forces out of power”.
When Modi spoke at the Fergusson
College India
and the world, the power of positive thinking, how there are solutions to all
problems, nation building through human resource development, etc.
This could perhaps be the way
forward. If BJP wants to attract more allies in the run-up to the Lok Sabha
elections either as pre poll partners or post poll tie-ups, it has to guard
itself from falling in the trap of secular-communal laid down by the Congress
and refuse to bog down on Ayodhya Ram Temple issue (raised by Amit Shah) or the
post Godhra riots (Modi interview). Development, reforms, youth centric
policies, growth, modernization, empowerment and vision for the future has to
be the central point of the debate for the party. The moment it falls in the
Congress trap, its doomsday. (July 15, 2013)
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