Rahul versus Modi: Battle line 2014




VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA



The first time Congress talked about a “bigger role” for Rahul Gandhi was in July 2012. The test balloon was successfully floated then and when the party saw that there is hardly any uncharitable reaction in the six months following the announcement, he was formally appointed as Vice President and crowned Number 2 in the Chintan Shivir at Jaipur. 

Obviously, the people of the country and even the Congress supporters would have liked to have more of Rahul’s views in the intervening period. But surprisingly, the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty preferred to keep to himself all this while and no one for sure knows his views on issues which plagued the country in 2012. Obviously, he knew that his performance as a public speaker, his views on the problems facing the country or his role as a Parliamentarian and also as AICC General Secretary was not on scrutiny. Congress cannot do without a Gandhi and no one knows it better that Rahul himself, the fifth generation leader of the party.

Everyone in his family, right from Moti Lal Nehru, great grandfather Jawaharlal Nehru, Grandmother Indira Gandhi, father Rajiv Gandhi and mother Sonia Gandhi have been Congress Presidents and it is a matter of time that he too is elevated to the position. In that case, Sonia Gandhi could become the patron of the party or the nomenclature of a suitable post could be decided by the top echelons of the party. I do not remember any such political family in any part of the world, whose five successive generations led the party. This happened only in the time when dynasties of kings, emperors and Nawabs ruled kingdoms and principalities in the bygone era. It needs an empirical study to find out why Congress cannot do without a Gandhi and why people of the country keep voting for one. I am not an expert on that.

The Congress Working Committee, the highest decision making body of the party, simply did what was expected of it. The pitch was raised, ground prepared and it waited for an appropriate moment to make the announcement. The Chintan Shivir at Jaipur was the best possible opportunity as the General elections of 2014 are a little over a year away and already there is a clamour within a section of the party that this should be advanced to time it with the Assembly elections in November-December 2013 to keep the momentum of the announcement going.

Interestingly, there are strong views on Rahul Gandhi just like Narendra Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat. On behalf of their parties, the two leaders are likely to be the Prime Ministerial candidates and would challenge each other in the big political bout. While Gandhi has benefitted from his surname, his family and dynastic politics of Congress and leadership of the party was practically vested in him without even working for it, Modi took the long and arduous route – from the RSS to the organization in BJP and finally as the chief minister of a state, winning it three consecutive times on his own strength. Rahul, on the other hand, avoided those states where the chances of the party were bleak like Punjab and Gujarat and placed money on losing cause like Uttar Pradesh and earlier Bihar.

So the battle line has been drawn even though the BJP could take some time to make a formal announcement. It would be Rahul versus Modi for the top job of the country in 2014 or even by the end of 2013 if polls are held six months before the schedule. While Modi will come in the battlefield with three consecutive wins in Gujarat, the tag of a popular chief minister and the head of an administration who gave a definite direction to the state, Gandhi will begin on a clean slate on this front. Even the 2009 victory of the Congress is not credited to him though he addressed a series of meetings all over the country and there is little to show his credentials as an election winning mascot.

But as compared to his father Rajiv Gandhi, what goes in favour of Rahul is the fact that he has worked in the party in various capacities for the last nine years ever since he joined politics and contested the Lok Sabha polls in 2004. His father was drafted into politics after the death of Sanjay Gandhi and the assassination of Indira Gandhi forced him to become the Prime Minister in 1984. This inexperience proved expensive as despite having the largest ever mandate in the country (4/5th), a feat which remains unsurpassed, Congress under Rajiv lost the battle in 1989. Contrarily, Rahul is now a two-time MP, has a varied experience as AICC General Secretary in-charge of NSUI and Youth Congress, brought democratization in these organizations, worked NGO style in his constituency and seen politics at close quarters, identifying foes and friends within the party and outside.

As an observer of Congress politics for a while, I find the situation very interesting at this stage. Congress does not have a tradition of announcing the prime ministerial candidate before elections. Will it announce the name of Gandhi anytime now and break the tradition? It will risk the course of its politics if it does so as the expectations from Rahul would be too high and given his report card to date, this may not inspire enough confidence to return to power for the third time in a row.

Then, what would happen to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh? The slot in Rashtrapati Bhavan has been filled for the next four and a half years. Perhaps, he may “retire” from politics citing age and health reasons. Then, there is a section which is promoting the name of P Chidambaram for the top slot. Sonia Gandhi refused to be the Prime Minister of the country and chose Manmohan Singh for the job. As Rahul has been reluctant to accept a ministerial responsibility all this while, will Chidambaram, A K Antony or Digvijay Singh be the Manmohan Singh of Rahul Gandhi so that he continues to control both the party and the government which his mother does?

Also, in the corridors of power – from Raisina Hills to 24 Akbar Road – there is talk in a section of the party that Rahul should be the Prime Minister straight away so that he gets at least one year of experience before the main battle and announce a series of populist measures. To support their theory, they say that future of the party lies in the youth and not an octogenarian like the present Prime Minister. They point out what if the party loses power in the next elections and Rahul languishes as the Leader of Opposition till 2019.

The debate within the party and outside will only get shriller as the elections approach. But what seems to be clear is that fact that the next elections could be between two personalities – Rahul and Modi – with their respective parties assuming a secondary role. (January 21, 2013) 

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