VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
The first time Congress talked
about a “bigger role” for Rahul Gandhi was in July 2012. The test balloon was
successfully floated then and when the party saw that there is hardly any uncharitable
reaction in the six months following the announcement, he was formally
appointed as Vice President and crowned Number 2 in the Chintan Shivir at
Jaipur.
Obviously, the people of the
country and even the Congress supporters would have liked to have more of
Rahul’s views in the intervening period. But surprisingly, the scion of the
Nehru-Gandhi dynasty preferred to keep to himself all this while and no one for
sure knows his views on issues which plagued the country in 2012. Obviously, he
knew that his performance as a public speaker, his views on the problems facing
the country or his role as a Parliamentarian and also as AICC General Secretary
was not on scrutiny. Congress cannot do without a Gandhi and no one knows it
better that Rahul himself, the fifth generation leader of the party.
Everyone in his family, right
from Moti Lal Nehru, great grandfather Jawaharlal Nehru, Grandmother Indira
Gandhi, father Rajiv Gandhi and mother Sonia Gandhi have been Congress
Presidents and it is a matter of time that he too is elevated to the position.
In that case, Sonia Gandhi could become the patron of the party or the
nomenclature of a suitable post could be decided by the top echelons of the
party. I do not remember any such political family in any part of the world,
whose five successive generations led the party. This happened only in the time
when dynasties of kings, emperors and Nawabs ruled kingdoms and principalities
in the bygone era. It needs an empirical study to find out why Congress cannot
do without a Gandhi and why people of the country keep voting for one. I am not
an expert on that.
The Congress Working Committee,
the highest decision making body of the party, simply did what was expected of
it. The pitch was raised, ground prepared and it waited for an appropriate
moment to make the announcement. The Chintan Shivir at Jaipur was the best
possible opportunity as the General elections of 2014 are a little over a year
away and already there is a clamour within a section of the party that this should
be advanced to time it with the Assembly elections in November-December 2013 to
keep the momentum of the announcement going.
Interestingly, there are strong
views on Rahul Gandhi just like Narendra Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat .
On behalf of their parties, the two leaders are likely to be the Prime
Ministerial candidates and would challenge each other in the big political
bout. While Gandhi has benefitted from his surname, his family and dynastic
politics of Congress and leadership of the party was practically vested in him
without even working for it, Modi took the long and arduous route – from the
RSS to the organization in BJP and finally as the chief minister of a state,
winning it three consecutive times on his own strength. Rahul, on the other
hand, avoided those states where the chances of the party were bleak like Punjab
and Gujarat and placed money on losing cause like Uttar
Pradesh and earlier Bihar .
So the battle line has been drawn
even though the BJP could take some time to make a formal announcement. It
would be Rahul versus Modi for the top job of the country in 2014 or even by
the end of 2013 if polls are held six months before the schedule. While Modi
will come in the battlefield with three consecutive wins in Gujarat ,
the tag of a popular chief minister and the head of an administration who gave
a definite direction to the state, Gandhi will begin on a clean slate on this
front. Even the 2009 victory of the Congress is not credited to him though he
addressed a series of meetings all over the country and there is little to show
his credentials as an election winning mascot.
But as compared to his father
Rajiv Gandhi, what goes in favour of Rahul is the fact that he has worked in
the party in various capacities for the last nine years ever since he joined
politics and contested the Lok Sabha polls in 2004. His father was drafted into
politics after the death of Sanjay Gandhi and the assassination of Indira
Gandhi forced him to become the Prime Minister in 1984. This inexperience proved
expensive as despite having the largest ever mandate in the country (4/5th), a
feat which remains unsurpassed, Congress under Rajiv lost the battle in 1989.
Contrarily, Rahul is now a two-time MP, has a varied experience as AICC General
Secretary in-charge of NSUI and Youth Congress, brought democratization in
these organizations, worked NGO style in his constituency and seen politics at
close quarters, identifying foes and friends within the party and outside.
As an observer of Congress
politics for a while, I find the situation very interesting at this stage.
Congress does not have a tradition of announcing the prime ministerial
candidate before elections. Will it announce the name of Gandhi anytime now and
break the tradition? It will risk the course of its politics if it does so as
the expectations from Rahul would be too high and given his report card to
date, this may not inspire enough confidence to return to power for the third
time in a row.
Then, what would happen to Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh? The slot in Rashtrapati Bhavan has been filled for the
next four and a half years. Perhaps, he may “retire” from politics citing age
and health reasons. Then, there is a section which is promoting the name of P
Chidambaram for the top slot. Sonia Gandhi refused to be the Prime Minister of
the country and chose Manmohan Singh for the job. As Rahul has been reluctant
to accept a ministerial responsibility all this while, will Chidambaram, A K
Antony or Digvijay Singh be the Manmohan Singh of Rahul Gandhi so that he
continues to control both the party and the government which his mother does?
Also, in the corridors of power –
from Raisina Hills to 24 Akbar Road
– there is talk in a section of the party that Rahul should be the Prime
Minister straight away so that he gets at least one year of experience before
the main battle and announce a series of populist measures. To support their
theory, they say that future of the party lies in the youth and not an
octogenarian like the present Prime Minister. They point out what if the party
loses power in the next elections and Rahul languishes as the Leader of
Opposition till 2019.
The debate within the party and
outside will only get shriller as the elections approach. But what seems to be
clear is that fact that the next elections could be between two personalities –
Rahul and Modi – with their respective parties assuming a secondary role. (January 21, 2013)
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