VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
No bye-election that too of an
assembly seat, can acquire such an important political space as the Moga by-
poll in Punjab has done.
While the down and out Congress sees it as a platform for its political
revival in the state in the run-up to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, for the
Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP combine, the seat is important as it has been losing
the grip in the state after returning to power in March last year.
The two-time sitting Congress
legislator Joginder Pal Jain resigned from the Congress and the Assembly,
necessitating a bye-election, scheduled for February 23. Now Jain would contest from his new party SAD
while the entire faction ridden Congress in the state has for the first time in
quite some time united to “teach a lesson” to the defector MLA.
The political aspirations of
several Congress legislators went topsy-turvy in March last year when the party
failed to return to power in a closely fought contest. Punjab
People’s Party led by Manpreet Badal walked away with some of the
anti-incumbency votes which otherwise would have gone to the Congress, proving
extremely costly to the Congress.
Given the bipolar nature of state
politics where every incumbent government was being voted out of power for over
four decades, the victory of the Akali Dal dashed the hopes of several Congress
MLAs who wanted their place in the sun after being in opposition for five
years. Now, almost a year after the assembly polls and when the next polls are
four years away, several Congress leaders are feeling restless. Clearly Jain
was amongst them and broke away from the party at the first opportunity when he
was promised “suitable reward”. Several leaders at the local level in all the
three regions – Malwa, Majha and Doaba—have already bid adieu to the Congress
in the months following the victory of the SAD-BJP combine.
For several leaders in Punjab ,
Akali Dal is not a pariah and they have effortlessly moved from one party to
the other. Even state Congress Chief Capt Amarinder Singh was in the Akali Dal
for quite some time and just before the assembly polls last year; his brother
Malwinder Singh too joined the party led by the Badals though he remained
disgruntled even in his new party. Jain too moved from Akali Dal to the
Congress and vice versa seamlessly over a period of time in his political
career.
Moga by-poll comes at a time when
the SAD-BJP is plagued with several issues and is battling internal
contradictions as well. The younger generation of the party led by Sukhbir
Singh Badal and his brother-in-law Bikram Majithia cannot have complete control
on the apparatus of the government and the party as the towering figure of the
senior Badal still overshadows them. A section of the youth leaders in Akali
Dal wanted the junior Badal in the top slot, something which happened in Uttar
Pradesh when Mulayam Singh Yadav brought a generational shift and got his son
Akhilesh as the Chief Minister. They
still nurse the ambitions. In the recent meeting of the NRI’s, the senior Badal
brought the issue in the limelight when he gave a dressing down to Majithia and
brought into sharp focus the generation gap and the difference in approach to
run the government and the party.
Then, there is a feeling that the
state government has lost the plot and some of the leaders have become arrogant
after being voted for the second time in a row. This led to a series of
incidents where the Akali leaders at the local level indulged in activities
which eroded the feel good factor. The killing of an ASI in Amritsar ,
the thrashing of a senior police officer in Ludhiana ,
the rape incident of Faridkot –all had the involvement of youth Akali Dal
office-bearers and those closely aligned with the ruling dispensation in Punjab .
Even as the Akali Dal is battling
its own internal dynamics, the Congress too faced a series of crises after the
defeat in assembly polls. There was a shrill campaign by several top leaders to
remove Capt Amarinder from the top job in the state Congress. Then the party
badly lost the municipal polls of almost all cities, exposing once again that
its base in the urban areas is not as strong as it used to be some time ago.
This was followed by several desertions; the last high-profile case was that of
its sitting legislator from Moga which has shaken the party.
PPP, which wants to end the
bipolarity of Punjab politics, is losing its relevance
at a fast rate so much so that now it has perhaps got reduced to a single
person party. Apart from Manpreet, there is hardly anyone with known
credentials left in PPP. Almost all of those who deserted the party joined the
parent Akali Dal. Manpreet himself flirted with the Congress for a while,
wanted an alliance and at least a programme to take on the Akali Dal. Congress
simply ignored the overtures.
Moga result would perhaps give a
roadmap to the two main parties till the Lok Sabha elections in April-May next
year. If the Congress wins Moga despite its legislator joining hands with the
rivals, the morale of the party cadres will get a boost. After the loss in
assembly polls and bitter infighting amongst the leaders, they have been
demoralized and lying low for quite a while now. Already, Congress has shown
intent by organizing a rally in Moga and for the first time in recent months,
projected a united face with al top leaders present. It is a question of the
very survival of the party. It knows that if it loses Moga, there could be more
desertions and some of its sitting legislators could take the risk of quitting
the party and contesting from the Akali Dal.
For the Akali Dal, a loss would
mean a serious introspection on the way governance has been carried out in the
months following their victory. It would also mean that the party needs to have
a better coordination amongst the younger generation of leaders and the seniors
who were part of numerous morchas in the past. The party would also get a message
that poaching would not pay political dividends in the long run.
A loss for the Congress would
have disastrous consequences for the party, confirming the steady erosion of
its support base before the Lok Sabha Polls. More desertions would follow and
it would be a weak party pitted against SAD-BJP in the home state of Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh.
An Akali Dal victory would ensure
that its target 2014 is on the right track, people have re-imposed their faith
again and the party would monopolise the political space of Punjab
for a significantly longer period. (January 14, 2013)
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