Lessons of Himachal Pradesh for BJP

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat have given their verdict and members of both the main parties would argue that it is honours shared equally between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. Though the score-line reads 1-1, it is a setback to the BJP as its Mission 2014 has found an obstacle and hit a roadblock in the hill State of Himachal Pradesh.

BJP was widely expected to do well in Gujarat and Narendra Modi has once again proved his political mettle and understanding of the socio-politico-economic milieu of Gujarat. As the result was on expected lines, the euphoria within the BJP camp is somewhat subdued. Moreover, it was the victory of the personality of Modi against whom there was practically a vacuum in state Congress leadership. Gujarat has merely reiterated what the people already knew - that BJP would win and there were no surprises. The third victory of BJP under Modi might have given the party a prime ministerial candidate but it does not necessarily indicate the way political wind is blowing in the rest of the country.

It was in Himachal Pradesh which clearly proved to be a setback for the BJP in the run-up to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Whether the party leaders admit it or not, BJP’s dream to rule New Delhi after the next Lok Sabha elections has received a jolt and Himachal was a wake-up call for the party to redraw its national strategy. Rather than highlighting the local issues, the BJP had heavily banked on the anti-Congress sentiments prevailing at the national level which backfired.

Here was a state election and a classic case where everything was going against the Congress and there was nothing which could have practically helped it except anti-incumbency in the state.  There was country-wide anger against price rise. Increase in the price if diesel in a state where the entire economy is dependent on road transport had affected all sections. Putting a Cap on subsidised LPG cylinders had hit every household. Then, there were serial charges against Congress led central government on corruption - Commonwealth Games, 2G scam, Coalgate scam and others. If that were not enough, there were specific charges against Virbhadra Singh, the chief ministerial candidate of the party on several counts.

If Congress defied all that was going against it and still managed to win the polls, clearly, BJP central leadership will have to do introspection as to what went wrong with their strategy.  The momentum has been lost for the party and now it is almost certain that corruption per se is not going to be an issue in the next parliamentary polls. If it could not become an issue in a developed and literate State like Himachal Pradesh, it is indeed difficult to make an issue out of it in the next elections. At best, it could be one of the planks of the 2014 polls, not “The Issue” on which elections are found and won.

It is a fact that for almost a quarter of a century, no incumbent Government has been repeated in Himachal Pradesh. But this cannot be the excuse of the party for defeat in Himachal Pradesh. In neighbouring Punjab, no party had been repeated for over four decades. But the Akali Dal-BJP did it a few months ago. BJP has done it, not only in Gujarat on several occasions but also twice in both Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh. In Himachal, anti incumbency was a factor not the main factor which decided the results.

In Himachal, while the macro issues which were being raised in the country did not play much role, the micro and state specific issues did play a major role. In the BJP, it was a battle between the old school and the new school of the party which significantly contributed to the defeat. The old school is represented by national vice president Shanta Kumar while the new school is represented by chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal.

While the old school led by Kumar wanted tickets on the basis of emotional reasons, ideological factors, loyalty to an individual, an organisation and a cause, the new school wanted ticket distribution on the basis of winning ability, on the basis of grassroots level assessment, on the basis of the realities existing in each and every constituency. In 15 seats of Kangra, supposed to be the stronghold of Kumar, BJP won only three. All Kumar loyalists lost and the three who got tickets and won were not loyalists of the BJP veteran. They got tickets because it could not have been denied to them due to their own standing in the party. Rebels mushroomed here and practically led to the rout of the party. Had BJP done well in Kangra, it would have been tantalisingly close to the halfway mark.

In Himachal Congress, there is hardly any old school of politics, little or no ideology as the party is an election winning machinery. Virbhadra Singh spends most of his time in Himachal, knows every nook and corner of the State, is aware of every hill and hillock, knows the State like the back of his hand and in every village of the State, he knows somebody or the other personally. So the old principles of loyalty and the new ground realities in the state where elections were held for the first time after delimitation, found a meeting point.

While the macro issues are important, in local assembly polls, the micro issues are significant and contribute to victory or defeat. Wherever BJP focused at the micro level, it won. But it was Virbhadra Singh who is a master of the game at the age of 78 whose micro poll management was unbeatable. The BJP was simply no match to it, divided as it was between the tussle of the old school with the new, between Kumar and Dhumal factions.

Then there was the factor of the Government employees, who form almost 15 per cent of the State population along with their families. In Himachal, there is a popular saying that the employees want more and more from the government. While the Dhumal Government did all they could within the existing resources, they wanted more and this could have been done only by a new Government.

In the hill State, it is practically a two-party system for the last almost four decades. I talked to a few experts in Shimla and they were in agreement that both the BJP and Congress are seen as occupying the centrist stage. The BJP is not seen as right of the Centre nor is the Congress here seen as slightly left of the Centre as is the position elsewhere in the country. They said that the ideological positions in the state have not hardened nor have the RSS or its affiliates been as active as in other northern States. This has ensured that BJP remains a centrist party by and large. So, the people tend to vote one way or the other and change the government every five years as there is nothing much for the people of the State to choose from between the Congress and BJP in terms of ideology. (December 24, 2012) 

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VBS likely to be next CM

Amitabh Shukla / Shimla

With AICC General Secretary Janardan Dwivedi and Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit appointed as central observers for the meeting of Congress Legislative Party (CLP) here on Saturday, it is now almost certain that Virbhadra Singh would be the next Chief Minister of the State.

Both Dwivedi, who is also the head of the Congress media department and Dikshit, the three- time Chief Minister of Delhi, share a good equation with Singh, who single handedly managed to win Himachal Pradesh for the Congress. In fact, Dikshit was the Chairperson of the Screening Committee of the party which selected candidates in Himachal Pradesh in which Singh was practically given a free hand. Sources in the party said that instead of keeping the suspense for a long time, the central leadership of the party has decided to take a decision at the earliest possible and the swearing in ceremony could be held either on the day of Christmas or even a day earlier depending on the new CLP leader.

“What goes in favour of Singh is the TINA (There is no alternative) factor. The victory is being credited to him as it took place at a time when issues were being raised by the Opposition against the Congress at the national level. Moreover, the victory is all the more sweet as it was not exactly expected and neutralized the poor performance in Gujarat to some extent,” said a senior Congress leader from New Delhi. While two dozen of the 36 Congress MLAs are loyal to Singh, his rivals in the party do not enjoy any such support base. A section of the Congress leaders pitched in the name of Union Minister Anand Sharma. However, what goes against Sharma is the fact that he was not involved in the process of Assembly Election at any stage and he could be seen as an imposition from above, something which won’t be acceptable to the majority of the Congress MLAs. Moreover, Sharma has never been in electoral politics of the State.

Another contender Vidya Stokes is 84-year old and has contested her last election. She is suave and keeps a low profile. Over a period of time, she has limited herself to her constituency Theog and is not conversant with the grassroots politics of the State, in which Singh is an expert. Given the fact that Congress has a simple majority, just crossing the halfway mark, it would require a “political manager” to keep any trouble at bay. Stokes might not be able to match that yardstick. Former PCC President Kaul Singh Thakur does not have the kind of stature required for the top job while GS Balli and Asha Kumari too is no match to Virbhadra Singh at this point of time. All these detractors of Singh owe their allegiance to Anand Sharma. Singh’s detractors point out to the charges framed against him in a local court here which led to his resignation from the Union Cabinet in June this year. “BJP conspired and framed me falsely. The witness is also not there,” Singh said, brushing aside the charges against him.

Singh was handed over the job of President of Himachal Congress, practically on the eve of the polls indicating that he was the main war horse of the party and it trusted him to win Himachal Pradesh. In addition, he was given a ticket to contest the Assembly Election from Shimla (Rural), something unheard of in Congress as no sitting MP is given party ticket to contest assembly polls. Singh is the sitting MP from Mandi. The indications are clear that he would be the next leader of the CLP and the chief minister for a record sixth time, a feat unparalleled in Congress politics.  (December 22, 2012) 

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Was it a self goal by the BJP in Himachal?

Amitabh Shukla / Shimla

A day after Bharatiya Janata Party lost the Himachal Pradesh Assembly election a serious introspection has begun in the party as to what went wrong in the state which the party could have won. Still to come out of the shock of the defeat, party leaders said that more than the Congress, it was the internal dynamics of BJP and poor poll management which led to the defeat.

The initial assessment of a section of the party suggests that giving free hand to veteran party president Shanta Kumar in Kangra led to a rout as the BJP managed to win only 3 of the 15 seats in the segment.  "Whoever wins Kangra, rules Shimla" goes the saying in the hill State and this time, it was practically a thorough defeat for the BJP in what is considered as a Shanta Kumar bastion. What came as a shocker to Kumar was the fact that nine candidates chosen by him lost the polls, some of them badly.

Outgoing Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal did not name Kumar but gave ample hints about the reasons for the debacle. "Faulty ticket distribution was a factor for the defeat," Dhumal said, after presiding over the last Cabinet meeting of his government. He said that tickets were allotted in two phases and in the first phase it was 45 tickets for all parts of the State. In the second list, 23 names were announced and most of them were from Kangra. Dhumal said that somehow the message spread that the party was not one on the issue of ticket distribution.

While Dhumal refrained from directly attacking Kumar, some other BJP leaders did so directly. "He is no longer in active politics. He has also lost touch with the ground realities. Blind faith of the party in his vote catching ability in Kangra was the main reason for the defeat," a senior leader said on the condition of anonymity. While both Congress and BJP were equally matched in rest of the state in this election, except perhaps Shimla which is a Congress bastion, in Kangra BJP was wiped out in the home turf of Kumar. On the other hand, in Hamirpur, the home-turf of Dhumal, the BJP did reasonably well. 

In the run up to the polls when factionalism was intense between the Dhumal and Kumar factions, Dhumal bought peace with Kumar. Sources said that broadly Dhumal agreed not to interfere in ticket distribution in Kangra and Kumar agreed not to do that in the rest of the state. "Both of them bought artificial peace and the result was disastrous," said a BJP leader here.  While BJP managed a respectable 26 seats, three of its rebels who were denied tickets too won. Moreover, Maheshwar Singh who floated thee Himachal Lokhit Party won from Kullu taking the figures of BJP rebels to four. In addition, there were five other constituencies where the votes of the BJP candidate and its rebel was more than the Congress candidate who won the polls. Party leaders said that this clearly suggests that the party could have formed its government in the state. "It was a self goal. Congress did not defeat us. The win ability of the candidates was ignored," said another party leader, who are now in the introspection mode and will submit a detailed report to the central leadership. BJP leaders here say that after the resounding defeat in Kangra, Kumar may well opt out of even recommending the names of loyalists for party tickets. He himself refused to comment on the issue.

"We will analyse the causes of the defeat in details later," said Dhumal. However, some party leaders have already trained their guns at Kumar and identified him as one of the causes. "Success has many claimants, defeat has none," said another BJP leader, sympathetic to Kumar, stressing that victory and defeat are part and parcel of electoral system. But the younger lots in the party are not ready to buy this argument. (December 22, 2012)

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‘Raja Saheb’ set to be crowned again

Amitabh Shukla / Shimla

Virbhadra Singh, popularly known as Raja Saheb in the State, is set to be Chief Minister of Himachal Pradesh for the sixth time — a feat which has few parallels in Indian politics.

The 78-year-old politician, who has been in the Congress for over five decades, is the architect of the Congress victory as his arrival as Pradesh Congress Committee president barely a few weeks before the polls, not only enthused the party workers but also made them believe that they can successfully challenge the BJP.

Singh did not hide his chief ministerial aspirations. “I was sent by our president Sonia Gandhi to the State with the message that Himachal Pradesh had to be won. I have done this with the help of the people of the State and the party workers. The desire of the people of the State is supreme. Our party president never overlooks aspirations of the people,” he said, clearly hinting that he should be made the Chief Minister.

The Raja of Bushar, a small principality, however, hastened to add, “I am a disciplined soldier of the Congress and bound by the discipline of the party. I will do what the high command says.” He has already listed his priorities as to what he would do once he becomes the Chief Minister.

Singh had to resign from the Union Cabinet in June-end, just a few months before the Assembly election for the State was announced due to framing of charges against him in a corruption case, the complainant of which was Major Vijay Singh Mankotia. “They (BJP) brought false cases against me. They conspired against me and brought the so-called CD case... They misused Government machinery and the police. People of the State have answered them,” an elated Singh said after his victory.

After Kaul Singh Thakur was removed as PCC president and Singh brought in, he drew a strategy in a short period at his disposal which included winning over his critics and rivals within the party. He brought in Major Mankotia and gave a ticket to him even though he was a complainant in the CD case which led to framing of charges against him. The message was loud and clear — victory was paramount not personal likes and dislikes. Vidya Stokes, another rival in the party, too came out in support of the Raja and so did GS Balli. All prominent Congress leaders won over, Singh got his act together and ensured that his loyalists, most of them winning candidates, got a lion's share in ticket distribution exercise.

“He knows the State like the back of his hand — every village, every hillock and every area where there is habitation,” one of his supporters said at the crowded Congress office here when asked about the way Singh motivated the party workers and the cadres. The micro-level poll management of the five-time Chief Minister, considering all equations at the ground level, helped the party surmount the obstacles, another party leader said.

A meeting of the Congress Legislature Party is expected to meet in a day or two which will take a call on the new leader. Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde will be the central observer. As Virbhadra Singh single handedly won the state for the Congress, it is expected that the party High Command will anoint him as the CLP leader and Chief Minister.

"It is a case where the victory can be safely attributed to one person - Virbhadra Singh. Whatever case he is facing is extremely weak and the main witness has retracted. There is no alternative to him in the state," a senior party leader said from New Delhi. Moreover, no claimant for the post has emerged in the Congress so far, indicating that even his rivals within the party admit that his contribution in the victory was immense and needs to be acknowledged. (December 21, 2012) 

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Rebels fell Dhumal in HP, anti-incumbency takes toll

Amitabh Shukla / Shimla

Himachal Pradesh lived up to its electoral tradition of voting out the incumbent Government as the Congress rode on anti-incumbency sentiments and wrested power from the Bharatiya Janata Party.

Inability to project its achievements and failure to make good governance an election issue, factionalism, faulty ticket selection and over a dozen rebels ensured that the ruling party was defeated.

Congress benefitted from the micro-level poll management of the five-time Chief Minister of the State, Virbhadra Singh, even though there was nothing in favour of the party at the macro level.

The party put up a united face, putting their factional fight behind and won 36 of the 68 seats in the hill State. While the BJP got only 26, six of the seats went to Independents and other parties.

The Opposition of BJP against FDI in retail did not go well with the voters in the apple belt of the State, many of whom felt that this would benefit the fruit growers. Not surprisingly, Horticulture Minister Narinder Bragta lost Jubbal Kotkhai, in the heart of the apple belt of the State, though he brought in several schemes for the horticulturists.

Even the increase in the prices of diesel, putting a cap on subsidised LPG cylinders and the promise of the BJP to provide induction heaters to the voters had few takers in the State.

The charges of corruption against Congress leaders at the Centre and against Virbhadra Singh in the State had few takers as Singh himself won by a huge margin. Mega scams like 2G, Coalgate, etc hardly had any impact in the State which has a high literacy rate.

Credited as the architect of the Congress victory, the 78-year-old Singh is expected to be the next Chief Minister of the State after a meeting of the Congress Legislature Party by the end of this week despite being chargesheeted in a corruption case which led to his resignation from the Union Cabinet six months ago. Of the 36 party MLAs, 28 are his supporters and this could settle the issue in his favour.

“Congress president Sonia Gandhi sent me to the State with a purpose to defeat the BJP. We have done that,” he said. Asked whether he would be the Chief Minister of the State, Singh indicated in the affirmative.

“Our party president never overlooks the wishes of the people,” he said, hinting that the wish of the people was to see him as the Chief Minister for the sixth time. For record, Singh said the victory of the Congress was a resounding endorsement of the flagship programmes of the Congress-led UPA Government at the Centre.

A dejected Prem Kumar Dhumal said the party would analyse the reasons for defeat. The party’s figure was down to 26 from 41 in the 2007 polls and even the margin of the Chief Minister’s win was reduced in the anti-incumbency sentiments.

“We will introspect where the party lacked in serving the people. The Government had tried to benefit all sections of the society besides accelerating the pace of development in the State,” he said. Party veteran Shanta Kumar refused to go into the reasons of defeat merely saying that in a democracy people’s mandate has to be respected.

BJP leaders said that the State Government failed to publicise the welfare schemes and instead focused on negative campaigning in which targeting Virbhadra Singh consistently boomeranged.

Moreover, instead of the organisation and collective decision making, half a dozen leaders took the decisions without involving the grassroots level workers. In addition, they said that the Government employees and their families, who constitute a large segment of the voters, ditched the ruling party.

Congress leaders and workers, however, said in the battle of personalities, the aggressive Virbhadra Singh with a royal lineage defeated the mild leader Prem Kumar Dhumal who hails from the middle class.

“The royalty has won, Virbhadra has won,” remarked a Congress leader at the State party headquarters. (December 21, 2012) 

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Independents may hold the key in Himachal Pradesh

Himachal Pradesh is waiting with bated breath for the Assembly results, widely expected to be a cliffhanger as the exit polls have indicated.

 Half a dozen Independents and some candidates of smaller parties, who are expected to do well, are having a time out in the sun, being wooed by both the Congress and the BJP.

 Both the parties have taken the exit polls and before that their own internal surveys rather seriously and have identified half a dozen candidates with the potential of winning the polls and trying to win them over. Even the top leaders of both the parties admit that the situation would be similar to the neighbouring Uttarakhand early this year where a seat or two would decide the winner”.

 Nothing went right for the Congress throughout the campaign due to a series of corruption charges against PCC President Virbhadra Singh and his resignation from the Union Cabinet. The party brought in Singh, popularly known as Raja in the hill state, a few weeks before the polls and that too after he was forced to quit the Manmohan Singh Cabinet as a local court here had framed charges against him. But the astute politician he is, Singh got his act together, managed to win over his arch enemies like Major Vijay Singh Mankotia, Vidya Stokes and to some extent H S Balli. To his credit, Singh brought the Congress in the race from practically a difficult situation by energizing the party cadres and making them believe that the party was in a position to challenge the ruling BJP.

 BJP had a relatively easy time during electioneering as there was nothing much against the party except perhaps anti-incumbency of five years and the baggage of a tradition where the ruling party in the state loses every five years. The internal contradictions of the Congress helped the campaign of the party as it effectively milked the issue of corruption - both at the national level and also the specific charges against Singh. Congress tried to target Dhumal and his son Anurag Thakur on some policies of the state government but it didn’t click with the voters. The increase in the prices of diesel and putting a cap on subsidized LPG cylinders further helped the cause of the BJP.

 Poll promise of providing induction heaters to the voters caught the attention as it was timely. Coming together of Dhumal and party veteran Shanta Kumar made the selection of candidates easier without much factionalism, making the prospects of “Mission Repeat” quite bright.

 At the macro level, BJP seems to be in a good position to come back to power as there is nothing much against it while Congress was burdened with the baggage of the central government as well as issues pertaining to the state unit. Nevertheless, at the micro level, a host of factors are involved and these could tilt the scale one way or the other.

 It was here that Virbhadra Singh has played his cards deftly. He was given almost complete say in the selection of the candidates and ensured that his loyalists made it to the list. Given the caste angle and regionalism in several constituencies, he ensured that the right balance was done. In some constituencies, Singh got his loyalists to contest the polls only to ensure the chances of defeat of the BJP candidate. As constituencies are small, two-three villages make a difference in the final outcome. Over half a decade in politics, helped Singh decipher the ground realities.

 “Poll management of the Congress was excellent. This was perhaps the USP of the party,” admitted a BJP leader here. He said that due to the poll management, Congress managed to get in the race which seemed extremely difficult at one point of time. 

 More than Gujarat, the results of Himachal Pradesh would indicate which way the political wind is blowing in the country. It will also point out whether corruption is a poll issue or not and would be a sort of referendum on the economic policies of the central government -FDI in retail, hike in diesel prices and putting a cap on subsidised LPG cylinders.

 If Congress wins, it could continue with its so called economic reforms, if the BJP wins, it would give momentum to the campaign of the party in the run-up to the 2014 polls. (December 19, 2012) 

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The never ending saga of Quota Politics

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Politics of quota has for long brought in social turmoil and unrest. The last century was witness to fissures within the Indian society and intense turmoil so much so that we thought that Other Backward Class politics would be over with a new millennium.

We thought that with the implementation of the Mandal Commission recommendations first in Government jobs by VP Singh and then in educational institutions by Arjun Singh, there would no longer be any politicking on the issue and it has been settled. As it turns out, this is not the case.

All of a sudden, the Congress Government in Haryana has pulled out a rabbit out of its hat and recommended reservation for the dominant community of the state — Jats.  I don’t know how many Jats in the State would feel happy if they are called backward in the State or elsewhere as they control agriculture, land holding and the politics of Haryana like no community does. They are the dominant caste of the State as per the definition of noted sociologist MN Srinivas and traditionally the rural society has revolved around the castes which control land holding and in Haryana Jats clearly occupy that position.

Whatever criteria you adopt, whichever agency you rope in for a survey and however hard you try, I simply can’t understand how Jats could be termed backward in Haryana. If you have already taken a decision this way or that way, you can always invent a convenient logic for that. This is what precisely happened with the Haryana Backward Classes Commission which recommended that Jats are indeed backward and need the benefits of reservation to come to par with other communities.

Leave apart the Commission, even the Haryana Cabinet showed a knee jerk reaction, quickly jumped at a conclusion and decided to accept the recommendations of the commission the very day it was submitted to the state government. The next day, the Chief Secretary of the State writes to the Central Government asking for reservations for Jats, Jat Sikhs, Rors, Bishnois and Tyagis. Everything was fast forwarded.

My problem is not with reservation per se. You need affirmative action in a country like India where historically caste has always been crucial to the social identity of an individual and will continue to be so, at least in the rural areas. But in this age and era, more than reservations, you need expansion of educational institutions and empowerment. In any case, when Government jobs are shrinking and private sector expanding, reservation is of little use. In educational institutions, gradually the private ones are acquiring a prominent position and a few years down the line, top institutes would be in the private sector. So, reservation is not going to help any community in this era, more so in the next decade or so. You need other modes of affirmative action.

The problem lies in milking the emotional issue for political ends. This is what VP Singh did in 1989 when he removed the dust from the Mandal Commission report which was lying in some deserted shelves of South Block to pre-empt Devi Lal, also from Haryana, to challenge his position as the Prime Minister. VP Singh never believed in OBC empowerment, nor did he take any policy decision favouring the OBCs all his life in various positions he held like the Finance Minister or the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. He remembered the report only when his position was challenged after becoming the Prime Minister of the country.

Now when the Bhupinder Singh Hooda Government faces a challenge from the Khap leaders of the Jat community and also other community leaders, it has all of a sudden decided to go ahead with the recommendations of the Commission. Several Khap leaders have decided to march to Delhi and block the national Capital from four sides of the state demanding reservation. The decision of the Hooda Government is simply to placate this section and the reason is not far to seek — it is vote bank politics. If the essential supplies in Delhi get blocked even for a day or two, it would affect the standing of Hooda in the eyes of the Congress high command. Obviously, he would not like that to happen.

So, what do you come out with? You take a decision to increase quota to 57 per cent. As the State Government has no authority on the issue, you lob the ball in the court of the Centre. Everyone knows that the upper limit of quota has been set at 50 per cent by the Supreme Court and the decision cannot be implemented unless a Constitutional amendment is brought about. You can always argue that you have done all you could and there was nothing more to do as the issue is in the domain of the Centre.

Haryana Government has to realise that the issue is not as simple as it thinks it to be. It has let the genie out of the bag and no one for sure knows when it will go back. Already, the Jat community in the State has been vertically divided — pro Congress sections backing the Government while the anti-Congress section up in arms. What if the agitation turns violent again and threatens the law and order situation of the State.

Some important Khap leaders have demanded that they need reservation but it should be within the ambit of 27 per cent which is already in place in Government jobs and in educational institutions. They have brushed aside the recommendations of the Haryana Government which asks for an additional 10 per cent saying this was impossible given the limitations imposed by the Supreme Court and improbability of the Central Government moving a Constitutional amendment bill which could also be subject to judicial scrutiny.

Now, those castes which are already within the ambit of 27 per cent as per the recommendations of the Mandal Commission are feeling the pinch and could turn violent if more communities, particularly a dominant community like the Jats, are included in this. It is natural for them to feel offended if this was done as it would snatch away quotas from them.  So, Haryana practically sits on a caste tinder box just because of the hurry to recommend reservation for the Jats.

If a lollipop to the Jat community was not enough, the Haryana Backward Classes Commission wants to give additional reservation to Brahmins and others based on economic status. Well, there has to be some limit to populism. Can someone tell the Commission? You can’t go on and on providing reservations to everyone under the sun.

So a Pandora’s Box has been practically opened on an emotional issue. If you do not learn the lessons of history, you are condemned to repeat it. (December 17, 2012) 

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Prime Minister, Punjab and the Akali Dal

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Shiromani Akali Dal and the Congress have a hate-hate relationship. They have never ever been on the same page in the last several decades and both are known to “invent logic” to counter each other.  This verbal slugfest sometimes assumes the proportion of outright abuse and a blow below the belt.

You name Congress President Sonia Gandhi and party General Secretary Rahul Gandhi and some of the Akalis would start using a language, which at the outset is un-parliamentary. Talk to the Congress leaders of Punjab and bring the topic of Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal and his son and Deputy chief minister Sukhbir Badal, you will perhaps get a similar response. As Punjab practically has a two-party system with the battlelines clearly drawn between the Akalis and the Congress, expression of the hate-hate relationship perhaps makes sense to cement their existing vote-base and attract new ones.

But there is one Congressman whom the Akalis revere, publicly or in private. They will take his name with respect and always add adjectives to it. It is Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Ironically, while the Congress leaders of the state hardly use the name of Manmohan Singh either electorally, in election campaign or otherwise, the Akalis practically project him as “one of them,” and as the “son of soil” who has made it big. They see him as Sikh who has made the community proud by becoming the first Prime Minister from the community, someone who is a reference point in the state when the talk veers on Punjabis who have excelled in various fields worldwide.

When the Prime Minister was in Ludhiana for the Golden Jubilee convocation of Punjab Agricultural University last week, chief minister Badal described him as the “most distinguished economist of the world”. The remarks came soon after the same distinguished economist piloted the proposal of FDI in retail, first in the Cabinet and then got it passed in both Houses of Parliament, a move vehemently opposed by the Akalis along with their allies, BJP.

Badal glorifying the Prime Minister was not because he was a guest in Punjab and it is a custom to extol the virtues of a guest. It was simply because the Akalis know that it is politically correct to do so. The septuagenarian Badal went ahead and told the gathering how the Prime Minister has always solved the problems of Punjab and how the people of the state are indebted to him.

Even as Badal was praising the Prime Minister, the cadres of both the parties were practically fighting a pitched battle outside for taking credit for the ambulance service in the state. While the Congress cadres pasted the pictures of the PM on the ambulance to take credit of the scheme, the authorities retaliated by slapping cases under the Defacement Act against the Congress workers. The Akali government in Punjab had succeeded in taking credit for the scheme by using the picture of Badal on the ambulances and it paid rich electoral dividends in the last assembly polls when the ruling party returned to power for the second time in a row.

Ironically, Congress has practically disowned Manmohan Singh in Punjab and refused to accept him as a mascot who can win elections for them. In the February Assembly elections, Singh hardly campaigned in the state and in Amritsar, Congress had to take the services of noted singer Gurdas Mann to pull in the crowd for the rally of the Prime Minister as no one in the city knew that he was coming.

When an AICC Observer met me when campaigning for the polls was going, I told him that in a close contest, you project a mascot and get the Prime Minister to address at least a dozen rallies in the state. Tell the voters in Punjab how much the party cares about the Punjabis and there is no better person to do that than the Prime Minister himself. The Observer, at best, could have written a report and sent it to his boss. The party might not have given it any weightage nor had anyone the guts to ask the Prime Minister to get involved in party work. 

Perhaps Congress wants to use the services of Singh administratively as the Prime Minister and not politically. Perhaps Singh is reluctant to campaign in elections and fight them as he has assiduously built the image of an intellectual, an economist and a bureaucrat who is into politics by accident. In any case, Punjab is the only state where he actually matters to some extent and can get a few votes for the party provided he specifically asks for it. But even Punjab Congress was perhaps skeptic about it.

But Akali Dal is not. It invited Singh for the inauguration of the Khalsa Heritage Memorial at Anandpur Sahib just before the polls were announced. The Akalis even claimed that they have got in principle approval of the Prime Minister. It was then that Punjab Congress President Capt Amarinder Singh intervened and appealed to him not to visit the state as it would give mileage to the rivals. The Akalis know the importance of a Manmohan Singh for Punjab, Congerss perhaps doesn’t.

Badal writes letters to the Prime Minister on the drop of a hat, on every topic under the sun, the last one was a few days back when he wanted the intervention of the Prime Minister to take up the issue of a Hindu temple allegedly demolished in Karachi, Pakistan. The chief minister tries to meet Singh once every month if he gets an appointment on some issue concerning the state or with one demand or the other. Leaders of Punjab Congress never do that. They never sought to encash the fact that a Sikh is the Prime Minister and this could pay electoral dividends to them.

In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, Congress managed to win 8 of the 13 seats in Punjab, some of them were undoubtedly due to the fact that Manmohan Singh was the Prime Minister. Now, when 2014 polls are less than one and a half years away, Congress has practically nothing to do with him. The party would be living in a fool’s paradise if it hopes that it would manage to repeat the impressive performance of last time. Since then, the Akali-BJP alliance have consolidated their support base and returned to power again while the Congress has practically disowned Manmohan Singh as a vote-catcher in the state. (10.12.2012) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/114584-prime-minister-punjab-and-the-akali-dal.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/114569-prime-ministerpunjab-and-the-akali-dal.html

Battle royale in Gujarat: Stakes high for Congress and BJP

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

After Himachal Pradesh, the battlefield has now shifted to Gujarat, making it a do or die election for both Congress and the BJP. After practically giving a walkover to BJP for almost four years and ten months, Congress is striving hard in the last few meters of the marathon to touch the tape before its rival.

I will tell you why Gujarat is important for both the parties. If BJP loses the state, it practically loses any hope it has been nursing all these months and years to come to power at the Centre in the 2014 elections for the Lok Sabha. It is so crucial for BJP. Again, for the Congress, a victory would practically ensure third consecutive term for the UPA. If Congress manages to snatch Gujarat from the firm grip of the BJP, it would send a powerful political message to the entire country and the party would be assured that the momentum in indeed in its favour.

Congress can still wriggle out of the situation, even if it loses the polls insisting that the voters are polarized. It can always invent one or more reasons for its defeat. But for the BJP, there cannot be any excuse and there is no scope for any margin of error. It has to win the polls come what may or lose its relevance ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.

The pre poll surveys have predicted a comfortable victory for BJP without giving even a semblance of hope for the Congress. But we all know that a lot of pre poll surveys and even the exit polls have been off the mark in several elections and at best these could be broad indicators of the public opinion, something on which none of the parties can bank on.

If you ask anyone, when Congress was in power in Gujarat the last time, people will have to scratch their brains to find the answer. It was way back in the mid 1990s. As the country and obviously Gujarat saw dismantling of the Inspector Raj, license-quota regime and economic liberalization, BJP came to power in the state and ever since it has retained its hold. This period coincided with tremendous boost to Gujarat economy. The state reaped maximum benefits of economic liberalization and somehow the people of the state associate the BJP with the progress the state has made since 1995 when BJP first came to power. Remember, making money and being proud of it is a serious business in Gujarat. Those who are already in the big league and thousands and lakhs of others who are trying to be there, have developed a notion that BJP would help their efforts. 

Then came the cocktail of economic prosperity and rising aspiration in globalised economy with religious polarization post Godhra. BJP has been winning rather impressively all these years post the riots. In the 2007 elections, the maut ke saudagar statement of Congress President Sonia Gandhi polarized the voters once again and Narendra Modi won without even trying to polarize the voters. But this time, Congress has been extremely careful not to raise any issue or give statements which polarize the voters again on communal lines and benefit BJP. With two weeks to go for the polls, the issues are economic prosperity or the lack of it rather than sentimental ones. This is precisely the issue on which elections should be fought along with the agenda and plan of the respective contestants for the next five years.

For the Congress, the proposed move of direct cash transfer to the beneficiaries would be put to electoral test for the first time. Last time, Congress successfully sold NAREGA and loan waiver to the farmers in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. In 2014, its trump card could well be direct cash transfer. Though Gujarat is prosperous and the number of BPL families are quite less as compared to other parts of the country, but the voting pattern in the poorer areas and also the urban slums would definitely indicate whether the issue has clicked with the voters or not.

But nationally, there are too many things going against the Congress. Voter fatigue, born out of anti-incumbency of two terms, series of allegations dogging the UPA II, beginning from Commonwealth Games and continuing since then with the latest being the Coalgate and a lot of issues which could be enumerated later in details. These national issues too would have a bearing on Gujarat polls.

Narendra Modi too faces voter fatigue and anti-incumbency like the Congress faces in the Centre. But the problem is that the Congress has failed to project anyone as a counter to Modi’s larger than life persona.

So when Modi wanted Congress to declare its chief ministerial candidate and propped up the name of Ahmed Patel, the reclusive but all powerful Political Secretary to the Congress President, he played to his strength. In the battle of personalities, there is no one in front of Modi – the PCC chief of the state Arjun Modhwadia or the CLP leader Shaktisinh Govil do not have the kind of persona it requires to take him on in the battle of personalities. It is here that Ahmed Patel fits the bill.

He may not be in the limelight and avoids the media but everyone in Gujarat knows that Patel is practically the Number 4 in Congress after the Congress President, her son and General Secretary Rahul Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. If he is indeed projected as the chief ministerial candidate of the party against Modi, it would help the party’s cause as the people of the state would readily believe that Patel can get anything from the central government for the state.

He could be a match for Modi. But then, Patel has all the powers in the party hierarchy which a leader would aspire for and why would he risk all that for the post of chief minister which in any case is extremely difficult to come by. A section of the Congress believe that perhaps Modi wants to again polarize the voters by propping Patel’s name as he happens to be from the minority community and Congress won’t play ball.

But whatever the political maneuvering before the polls, what is certain is that a defeat for BJP would be curtains for it as far as immediate national ambitions are concerned while a defeat for the Congress wouldn’t really point to the things shaping up in the run-up to 2014. (December 3, 2012) 

http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/112926-stakes-high-for-cong-and-bjp.html
http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/112908-stakes-high-for-cong-and-bjp.html