Aam Aadmi becomes a political football

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

Arvind Kejriwal has finally named his political outfit Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), inviting the wrath of the Congress which claims that an attempt was being made to take away the plank of the grand old party of Indian politics.

What surprises me the most is the fear of the Congress vis a vis the AAP and the strong reaction emanating from its camp. If a 127-year old party reacts the way it is doing against a party which has been just formed and never contested an election, then clearly there is some problem somewhere.

Congress has been ridiculing Anna Hazare, Kejriwal and Baba Ramdev from the very beginning, realising well that the rising and aspiring middle class could support them and this obviously would hurt it in electoral terms. Congress is not bothered about the entrenched elite who would never even think of extending support to Kejriwal and company as their interests are safe with the Congress and also with the BJP. The voters in the rural areas too would not have anything to with a new political party in the beginning simply because they will wait and watch for a while and not cast vote in a hurry. It is only the middle class in the cities which is impatient, wants to end corruption and could experiment with new political parties.

When Congress leader and Union Minister Manish Tewari claimed that the party has been with the Aam Aadmi ever since its formation in 1885, it was time for me to brush up my understanding of history. Founded by the elite of the country then, Congress remained entirely elitist till Mahatma Gandhi came in the picture. It was Gandhi who took the party to the Aam Aadmi when he came back from South Africa in 1915. He had to wait for a few years till the party truly became a mass movement of the Aam Aadmi who wanted to end British imperialism.

The moment the entrenched elite - lawyers, industrialists, big landholders and professionals realized that Gandhi was driving the imagination of the sub-continent, they came out in open support. The strength of Gandhi lay in his immense appeal to the main section of the aam aadmi then- farmers, both landless and with little landholding. There was only a small section of middle class then in the cities and it was not the Aam Aadmi we know now. In any case, the tiny middle class joined the national movement only when they became sure that British would leave the country.

In brief, this is my understanding of history and the association of the aam aadmi with the Congress. The party became a mass movement not through electoral politics but by taking up the issues of Aam Aadmi and that was to get rid of British imperialism. That perhaps was the reason why Gandhi wanted Congress to be disbanded after 1947-a suggestion scoffed at by the elite who were sniffing power. As there were hardly any political parties then and the memory of the people associating Congress with the freedom struggle was strong, it continued in power without interruption till 1977 at the Centre.

The problem arises now when an upstart, as Congress would like to believe, tries to take the plank assiduously built over decades. More so, when the Congress believes that  the AAP could hit it in places like Delhi which goes to polls next year and the electorate comprises of an overwhelming majority of the middle class.

Officially, Congress maintains that there are 1453 political parties registered with the Election Commission of India and another addition would hardly make a difference. “More the merrier…” says a Congress spokesperson. But it knows that AAP could be one of the 1453 political parties but is one untested opposition whose electoral strength it does not know. Anna, Baba Ramdev and Kejriwal have contributed immensely in making the Congress unpopular in the last two years and the party leaders know it well.

Reactions coming from the Congress on AAP clearly suggest that the party does not think that it is one of the 1453 odd parties in the country. The ruling party never reacts to what happens in the other smaller parties registered with the EC. The simple fact that Congress reacts on anything what Kejriwal says or does, indicates that the party thinks that AAP could indeed be a worthy opponent.

To be realistic, the AAP cannot be a political threat to any party to begin with.  It takes years and decades to actually become a threat and build trust with the people. Besides you need an issue which changes national discourse and strengthens a particular party. For instance, the Ram Janambhoomi movement brought the BJP as a force to reckon with while the Mandal politics gave rise to several political parties in the Hindi heartland.

Even though,  AAP would find it extremely difficult to win a Lok Sabha seat on the issues of corruption or Jan Lok Pal, it could damage Congress and help its opponents. As the Congress plank of Aaam Aadmi was built without a foundation, it knows that this can slip away in no time. This perhaps is the real fear of the 127-year old party.

After the formation of AAP, I really find it intriguing to see Congress leaders, big and small, claiming copyright over the word Aam Aadmi. Amongst the top leaders of the party, the last member of the Nehru-Gandhi family who practically worked for a living was Motilal Nehru, over 85 years ago. His son, Jawaharlal Nehru never worked for a living nor his daughter Indira Gandhi and her son Sanjay Gandhi. Rajiv Gandhi worked as a pilot for a while and Rahul Gandhi in some company in London for a couple of years, the details of which are difficult to find. Party President Sonia Gandhi remained a housewife all the years till the Congress discovered that she was the only leader to fill the slot left vacant by Rajiv Gandhi.  To call them common man or the Aam Aadmi would indeed be trivilalising the word.

Not only the Gandhi family, if one analyses the background of Congress MPs and ministers, one would find that most of them come from political families and there is hardly an Aam Aadmi, who has made it as an MP or a minister through sheer hard work without having a father, mother, uncle or grandfather in an influential position in the party in the past.

It is here that Congress should bolster its image of a party of the Aam Aadmi rather than fighting on the name of a new political party. People would be the arbiter and decide who has the copyright on Aam Aadmi, not the Congress or t he AAP. (November 26, 2012)

 http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/111299-aam-aadmi-becomes-a-political-football-.html

http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/111326-aam-aadmi-becomes-a-political-football.html

Battleground 2014: Regional parties flex muscles

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

With the announcement of candidates by Samajwadi Party for the Lok Sabha elections of 2014, the ball has been set rolling, triggering speculations that the polls could be advanced. Given the fact that the ruling Congress is on a weak footing and is still battling several charges hurled against it at regular intervals throughout its second innings at the Centre, it is extremely unlikely that the party would go for a snap poll.

But what has come as a surprise, 18 months before the polls, is the positioning of various regional parties in several states and their attempt to reinvent themselves in the run up to the elections. Regional parties have realised that they could perhaps be the kingmakers and are making appropriate strategy anticipating a fluid political situation after the general elections. For some of these regional parties, neither UPA is untouchable nor the NDA. In fact, a few have gone for a flexible ideological stand which could make them fit either in the NDA, UPA or the so called Third Front, a conglomeration of regional parties, if it indeed comes into existence before the polls.

Take for instance the ruling Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. It is practically in the UPA, extending outside support to the ruling coalition. The party is now aspiring to lead the Third Front with its chief Mulayam Singh Yadav looking at the chair presently occupied by Manmohan Singh. That perhaps explains the eagerness of the regional outfit to come out with its list of candidates so early. It wants to encash the victory in UP and wants to keep the winning momentum going.

Besides SP, the Bahujan Samaj Party too is extending support to the UPA but can easily absorb itself in Third Front, if at all it comes into existence. For the BSP, even Bharatiya Janata Party is not a pariah as it has shared power with it in UP in the past. So practically, BSP could sail in three boats – UPA, NDA and Third Front.

In neighbouring Bihar, Nitish Kumar led JD(U) is firmly in saddle. For the last almost eight years, it has consistently scotched speculations that it could switch to the UPA from NDA. Given the kind of caste arithmetic the JD(U)-BJP alliance has stitched in Bihar, it could be extremely difficult for Nitish to ditch the BJP and go for Congress and still enjoy the vote base which he has at this point of time. Being an expert in “social engineering”, Nitish realises this well. But for his arch rival, Lalu Prasad Yadav switching sides would be a breeze. The UPA had shunned him in the last polls and would still do so. Trying to remain relevant in state politics after losing two consecutive assembly polls, Yadav has embarked on a state-wide tour and knows that 2014 would be a make or break for him. If he gets the numbers, he could be welcomed back in UPA if he doesn’t, his political obituary can be written safely.

From Bihar, cross over to West Bengal and you find Mamata Banerjee who is presently neither with the UPA nor the NDA. She can never be with the Third Front as it will invariably have the Left which she hates from the core of her heart. I am surprised why the NDA has not tried to win her over after she left the UPA. Her Trinamool Congress could easily put its legs on two boats of UPA and NDA if the situation warrants after the 2014 results. Banerjee wants to keep up the suspense and is playing her cards deftly. The Left Front in the state has three options – either stay neutral the way it is right now, go with the confederation of the regional parties which could perhaps be led by Mulayam Singh or extend outside support to UPA on the plea of “keeping the communal forces away” if the BJP comes at a sniffing distance of the magic figure, essential to form the government.

Odisha is next in line where Naveen Patnaik has kept both the Congress and the BJP at arms length. In successive elections, Congress was completely decimated in the state but remains the only opposition party worth the name as BJP has little presence in most parts. Patnaik could switch between NDA and Third Front post 2014 if indeed he gets the numbers and they are vital for government formation.

Taking the Coromandel Coast, we now reach Andhra Pradesh where an interesting political battle is likely to take place. Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress is fledging its muscles even as TDP has become irrelevant over a period of time. The Telengana issue too is on the boil. Jagan’s party has the potential to cause severe damage to Congress as the bye-election results have shown. But I suspect that if the Congress and CBI decide to go soft on him (like they did to Mayawati and Mulayam Singh in UP) he would hardly have much grouse in extending outside support to UPA. For that matter, he could also support NDA or the Third Front in lieu of their help in a series of cases registered against him ever since he left Congress.

In Tamil Nadu, there is little to speculate. While one regional party goes with the UPA, the other goes with the NDA. There would be little surprise if AIADMK goes with NDA while the DMK remains with the UPA. But my suspicion is that both the parties would compete with each other to support whoever comes to power post May 2014.

Kerala, Maharashtra and Punjab have a well settled alliance system and it has been going on a similar pattern for the last almost two decades. It is unlikely to change. NCP-Congress alliance versus the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance in Maharashtra and the LDF versus UDF in Kerala are well established. In Punjab, the Akali Dal and BJP have been together for a long time now and after being voted for the second time in a row, would be looking to consolidate.

But the battleground of Haryana could be interesting. While BJP has allied with the Kuldeep Bishnoi led Haryana Janhit Congress to form a non-Jat alliance, a section of the BJP wants that the alliance with Om Prakash Chautala’s Indian National Lok Dal be revived. In the 2009 assembly polls, had BJP fought the elections with INLD, Congress could have been wiped out from the state. Striving for political relevance before elections, Chautala is looking to either become the fulcrum of the so called Third Front or get into the NDA fold. It would be interesting to see if both Bishnoi and Chautala can be adjusted in NDA ahead of 2014. It would be a political masterstroke of the BJP if it indeed manages to do that. (November 19, 2012)

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/109584-battleground-2014-regional-parties-flex-muscles.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/109709-battleground-2014-regional-parties-flex-muscles-.html

Congress’ bogey of economic reforms

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

After a Cabinet reshuffle and a brainstorming session called samvad baithak, Congress believes it is battle ready for 2014 even though the next agenda on card is the Assembly election of Gujarat, barely a month from now.

If Congress wins Gujarat then barring any serious political accident, no party can prevent UPA from coming to power at the Centre for the third consecutive term in 2014. The grand old party would be on a roll. On the other hand, even if the ruling BJP is returned to power in the Narendra Modi led State, it cannot be assured of leading a coalition Government of the NDA in New Delhi. BJP, in any case, takes the support of the voters in the State for granted.

The results of Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat would be announced at the same time, in the third week of December. Leave Gujarat, even in Himachal Pradesh, BJP has an edge given the fact that no one is ready to accept the logic of so called economic reforms —hike in the prices of diesel, putting a cap on subsidised LPG cylinders FDI in retail or whatever is there in store for the people. Even die-hard Congress supporters won’t support the Government on LPG cylinders as the entire move looks so illogical from the outset. It cannot bury the charges of corruption simply because it is too big an issue to be brushed under the carpet.

So it appears that the Congress wants the two elections of Himachal and Gujarat to become a referendum on the economic policies of the Centre, sort of laboratory experiment for the party for the future course of action. It wants the voters to forget scams of Commonwealth Games, 2G spectrum, Robert Vadra’s questionable land deals and diverting party funds for National Herald newspaper.  If Congress loses both the States, it can safely abandon the economic reforms, which primarily means removal of subsidies. Politically, both the states don’t matter to the Congress as of now for the simple reason that it hardly has any ambitions in Gujarat which is in the stranglehold of Modi and in Himachal, it can always camouflage its loss by inventing a series of reasons.

I am surprised the way Congress is pushing for the so called economic agenda which in electoral terms are potential disasters. On November 4, it organised a rally in New Delhi not to counter the serial allegations of corruption, wrong doing and irregularities but to support FDI. I don’t think any person would understand the logic of reforms if he is asked to pay around `980 for a LPG cylinder, two and half times the existing rate. What were you doing in the last 8 and half years, people would ask. You could have increased the prices of LPG by `50 every year and this wouldn’t have pinched the pockets of the people the way it would now. But simply, you did not have the guts to do so. Similarly, you turned a blind eye to diesel all these years. You could have increased the prices by `2-3 every year if indeed the oil companies are not passing on their inefficiency to the consumers of LPG and petroleum products.

At the end of the day, all economic policies are aimed to benefit the people and the voters would ask how a particular decision would benefit them. No one would understand the jargons of fiscal deficit, growth rate, subsidies etc unless they see something concrete in front of them helping them get more employment, access to resources and bringing down the rate of inflation. Can you tell a hungry person that he should bear with his hunger as he will get cake and sweets to eat after five years?

Lackluster performance notwithstanding in the last over 8 years, Manmohan Singh is clearly dominating the policy making decision and is influencing the party as well as the Congress president. My suspicion is that the so-called economic reforms would have the same impact as the Indo-US nuclear deal in 2008. Singh staked his government for that deal, the Left withdrew support and we were told that once the deal gets through, there would be power all around for every village, every person. Four years down the line, no one even talks about the deal any more. It has ceased to become an issue at all. No Government or Congress spokesperson ever mentions the thousands of megawatt of power we were supposed to get through nuclear energy. I find both the Indo-US nuclear deal and the economic reforms in the same league — far removed from the issues at the grassroots level politics which helps the party consolidate its base.

Then what could be the reason of the nuclear deal in 2008 and the economic reforms in 2012. The answer perhaps could be diversionary politics, an art which the ruling party has mastered. In 2008, the nuclear deal was not important but getting rid of the Left was. Getting the support of Samajwadi Party and the BSP too was important then as the country was heading for the 2009 elections. The Congress Government at Centre was not bothered about the so-called benefits of the nuclear deal but was certainly interested in realignment of the political forces ahead of the general elections.

A similar situation prevails in 2012 when elections are a year and half away and the government is facing a crisis of credibility, rocked as it has been by a series of allegations, some of which were directed right at the doors of 10 Janpath. You need something to divert the attention of the people. And it was in such a situation that the bogey of economic reforms came handy for the Government and the Congress. The UPA will abandon it the moment the voters forget the mega scams. This is what history suggests. (November 12, 2012)

 http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/108365-congress-bogey-of-economic-reforms.html

http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/108284-congress-bogey-of-economic-reforms.html

Congress finds itself in a quagmire

VIEWPOINT

AMITABH SHUKLA

It’s a season of controversies and scams in which those on the top of the pyramid of politics have found themselves in unsavory situation, ruining their immediate political plans. While the Congress was at the receiving end in most of the scandals, BJP too did not get away as the party President himself had to bear the ignominy of a raging controversy involving the finances of his companies.

What has come as a surprise is that for the first time those involved in the scandals are not small time politicians and regional satraps against whom Disproportionate Assets case are registered at random to settle political scores and bully them to submission but those considered the “creamy layer” of Indian politics. Now the so called sacrosanct, who could never have been targeted in the old school of politics, are facing the brunt of the assault given the ease with which information is available in public domain.

The latest to face the music is none other than Congress President Sonia Gandhi and her son and AICC General Secretary Rahul Gandhi who have been accused of getting the finances of the Congress Party  for their company Young Indian. While Subramanian Swamy has for long been considered a loose cannon who could explode anywhere and was known to train guns at the Gandhi family at the slightest pretext without any proof, this time he has done his homework well and brought evidence which the party found difficult to refute.

The knee-jerk reaction – first by the office of Rahul Gandhi and later a battery of  Congress spokespersons, compounded the worst fears of even the Congress supporters. While the office of Rahul threatened to take all action possible under law and denied the allegations of Swamy, the party had a different take on it. It accepted that  money as alleged by Swamy had indeed been given to the company in which Rahul and Sonia have a majority stake and tried to defend the blatant violation of the existing laws governing the political parties of the country. Clearly, the charges of financial irregularities and evasion of taxes had reached the courtyard of 10 Janpath, the residence of the Congress President and 12 Tughlaq Lane, the residence of party General Secretary Rahul Gandhi.

I fail to understand the goof ups made by the oldest party of the country.  If indeed the loan to Young Indian was proper and as per the laws of the land, why didn’t the Congress itself inform about the decision through its mouthpiece “Congress Sandesh” or through one of its spokespersons in the regular party briefing. Why did the party, which claims to be the champion of Right to Information, doing it discreetly when finances of as much as Rs 90 crore was involved. It was not Rs nine or Rs ninety which you give to a beggar on a traffic junction. Don’t the people who trust the party and vote for it in elections, deserve to know what it is doing with the money entrusted to it through donations. 

Had Congress itself disclosed that it is going to revive the newspaper National Herald by giving interest free loans to Young Indian and wants to perpetuate the legacy of Jawahar Lal Nehru, no one would have objected to it. In fact, it would have been the first page news of most newspapers and the lead item in the news channels. The party would have got widespread appreciation for helping out the families of the erstwhile employees of National Herald as Janardan Dwivedi claims now.

But clearly, the party had something to hide. It knew for sure that what it was doing was not allowed as per the existing laws. It chose to be discreet and evasive and is now deliberately going on an overdrive. People expect much more transparency from a party which was founded 127 years ago. Why does the party still believe that in an era of IT revolution when every document can be scanned and brought out in public domain, such a gesture of loaning Rs 90 crore would remain a secret? This is not the 1950s.

Earlier, Robert Vadra, son-in-law of the Congress President found himself in the middle of questionable land deal and unsecured loans indicating quid pro quo. This was the beginning when the credentials of a family member and financial dealings came under scanner. Now when more and more information is reaching public domain, no one knows how much more muck, most of which is going to stick, will flow at the directions of the top bosses.

Assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh were held just at a time when Swamy was through with his allegations and the Congress found itself in a tight spot defending the charges. Many voters, the young ones in particular, would now be wondering when even the conduct of the top leaders is not beyond suspicion, why should they vote for them. Remember, BJP President Nitin Gadkari is also in the eye of storm for financial irregularities. So both the Presidents of the two main parties – Gandhi and Gadkari – face charges the answers of which are hardly convincing.

So whom do you vote for if you go the polling booth and make corruption as the yardstick? Well, the question is difficult to answer. May be the one who is less corrupt and this is extremely subjective.

There is one big difference between Congress and BJP here where the ruling party finds itself in a much weaker position. Gadkari may not be the face of the BJP and can easily be dumped to take care of his business empire if the heat continues and it finds itself at the receiving end. It won’t really affect the core vote bank of the party. But what about the Congress? The entire party owes its existence to the Gandhis and they symbolize the Congress and vice versa. The party cannot do without them. That is an existential dilemma. In the last 65 years since independence, the family members have been the trump cards for the party and continue to be so.

Then, there is another problem in store for the Congress and Rahul Gandhi in particular. He has been looking to play a bigger role in the party for long and refused to join the Manmohan Singh Cabinet. At a time, when he along with the Congress President, was trying to figure out what this bigger role could be, Swamy came out with the expose. Now, it seems that the bigger role of Gandhi would have to wait as the party would like the dust to settle down and bank on the memory of the people that “it is short”. (November 5, 2012) 

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/106704-congress-finds-itself-in-a-quagmire.html

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/dehradun/106719-congress-finds-itself-in-a-quagmire.html

LPG ceiling, not graft, main issue in HP poll

Amitabh Shukla / Shimla

As campaigning comes to an end on Friday, it is clear that elections in the hill State of Himachal Pradesh could test poll issues like big ticket corruption, rise in prices, FDI in retail and withdrawal of subsidies on LPG cylinders.

 Apart from the national issues, the polls would determine whether people of the State believe in the series of allegations against Congress’ Chief Ministerial aspirant Virbhadra Singh or the assertions of CM Prem Kumar Dhumal that the disastrous performance of the UPA at the Centre vis- a-vis the development in the last five years has led to a pro-incumbency wave in the State.

Macro issues apart, there are a series of micro issues which will determine the outcome in every constituency making it a close contest. Congress changed its chief weeks before the polls and brought in the disgraced Singh, the five-time Chief Minister, who was forced to resign from the Union Cabinet due to charges of corruption. Change of guard at the last moment and factionalism in the ticket distribution exercise triggered serious dissent within the Congress with around two dozen rebels contesting in 68 constituencies of the State.

BJP, on the other hand, sunk its internal differences ahead of ticket distribution and the two top leaders of the State — Dhumal and Shanta Kumar — joined hands to achieve “Mission Repeat”. This helped check rebellion and only around half a dozen rebels are in the fray, and most of them due to claims and counterclaims following delimitation.

Singh sought to play down the corruption charges against him, including a court case in Shimla saying that it would not have any impact on the polls. These moves were politically motivated, he claimed.

He has threatened the media organisations of defamation once the polls are over. “I have left my fate to the people of the state. They have full sympathy with me. These weird allegations against me are only building public sympathy for me,” the 78-year old leader, who wants to be the CM for the sixth time, says nonchalantly.

Dhumal, the lecturer-turned politician, who had a rather non-controversial tenure of five years, has realised that corruption charges against Singh and the Centre are potent poll issues. Wherever he campaigns, he strongly raises these issues and also blames the Centre for hampering the  developmental agenda of the state.

With restriction on the number of subsidized LPG  cylinders becoming a major issue, the soft-spoken Dhumal reminds the people that the withdrawal of subsidy on the cylinders would lead to environmental degradation as people would be forced to cut trees for fuel. He has already promised to provide induction heater to the people after victory in the power surplus state, an issue which has found wider acceptability.

 “There is no anti-incumbency in the state. Congress leaders have exposed themselves thoroughly. Even the Prime Minister and the Congress President misled the people here. The Centre is yet to give the dues of the state in the hydro-power projects. Special industrial status to the state was withdrawn. People will teach Congress a lesson,” says Dhumal, looking for a third term as chief minister. State BJP chief Satpal Singh Satti added that Singh’s conduct as Union Steel Minister has made every citizen of Himachal called ‘devbhoomi’ bow his head in shame.

The result of neighbouring Punjab where the SAD-BJP government got repeated early this year, a rare phenomenon ever since the division of the state in 1966, has come as a shot in arm for Dhumal as Himachal too has not returned an incumbent government in the last two decades. “Good governance pays”, added Dhumal.

Himachal Lokhit Party, a breakaway faction of the BJP, is contesting all the 68 seats in alliance with the Left parties - CPI(M) and CPI. But political observers in the state say that this formation could get the anti-incumbency votes which would have otherwise gone to the Congress and help the BJP. Bahujan Samaj Party and the Trinamool Congress too have fielded candidates in most of the constituencies but have so far failed to make an impact leaving the main fight between arch rivals Congress and the BJP.

A pre-poll survey of CNN-IBN has put the BJP slightly ahead of the Congress suggesting that a close contest is on the cards. BJP tried to build up a positive campaign convincing the floating voters that their interest lies in continuity. Congress campaign was largely negative as it was forced to continuously deny corruption charges in the month long electioneering and did not bring any developmental agenda to the forefront.

Voters would have the last laugh on November 4 in the battle between royalty (Raja Virbhadra Singh from the princely state of Bushahr) and the common man (Prem Kumar Dhumal, LIC official turned lecturer turned politician). (November 2, 2012)

http://www.dailypioneer.com/home/online-channel/360-todays-newspaper/105961-lpg-ceiling-not-graft-main-issue-in-hp-poll.html