VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
Assembly Bye-polls are normally
heavily loaded in favour of the ruling party anywhere in the country. More so
when the ruling party is fresh from its victory in the main elections, has not
taken unpopular decisions and is yet to turn weary and tired.
This is what happened in Dasuya
in Punjab and Sitarganj in Uttarakhand. In both the
cases, the ruling parties won convincingly, completely demolishing the
opposition. The honeymoon period with the voters which started after the
victory in the assembly polls continued in the by-polls with no semblance of a
fight by the opposition.
In most of the by-polls, sympathy
is considered to be a factor as the political parties tend to field the wives,
sons, daughter-in-law or daughters of the deceased leader if the by polls has
been necessitated by the death of a sitting legislator. But sympathy, obviously
cannot be the sole deciding factor as the by-polls in Renuka and Nalagarh in
Himachal Pradesh and Ratia in Haryana suggested over seven months ago.
In Dasuya, BJP fielded its
“natural choice”, Sukhjit Kaur Sahi, wife of sitting legislator Amarjit Singh
Sahi who had won the February 2012 polls. The result was a foregone conclusion
as the dejected Congress, licking its wound after the defeat in the Assembly
and municipal polls, was no match to the aggressive and unrelenting campaign of
SAD-BJP, built around the hype and promises of development. But what was
surprising was the margin of victory. A margin of over 47,000 votes in any
assembly polls is huge and baffled the contestants and their parties as well.
“Is it the beginning of what Sukhbir Badal says the 25-year rule of the Akali
Dal in Punjab?” wondered a BJP leader in Chandigarh, who was initially
skeptical of the tall claims of SAD President that the party will rule Punjab
for the next 25 years and this was the sixth year of such a rule.
Interestingly, the victory margin
of Sukhjit Kaur Sahi at 47, 431 votes was next only to Deputy chief minister
Sukhbir Badal who won from Jalalabad by a margin of 50,246 votes in the
February polls and Revenue Minister Bikramjit Singh Majithia who won by 47,581
votes. Alarm bells would definitely be ringing in the Congress and it should be
introspecting about the massive loss even though the party has accused the
ruling SAD-BJP of rigging the polls.
Similar was the case of
Uttarakhand Chief Minister Vijay Bahuguna who won the Sitarganj Assembly seat
by a record margin of 39,954 votes over his nearest BJP rival. Ironically, this
was a seat which was won by the BJP in the last polls and the MLA vacated it in
favour of Bahuguna. This became the highest margin in all the assembly
elections in Uttarakhand so far and one has to remember that the opponent was
not a political novice but former BJP minister, Prakash Pant. The swing in
favour of the Congress was massive as people were voting for a chief minister
rather than a MLA who could be in the opposition benches and could not have
contributed to the development of the area. Here, BJP accused the
Congress of rigging the polls, a charge which Congress made against the ruling
party in Punjab .
What helps the ruling parties
hold complete sway in by-polls is its control on the state administration.
During general elections, model code of conduct is in force in the entire state
and the Election Commission has an overriding role. That is not the case in a
bye-election as the code of conduct is localized to the constituency concerned
and the EC’s strict gaze is off the radar. While the voters do not see
any point in helping a losing cause, by voting for the party which they know
will be in the opposition, the administration too knows well that acts of
omission and commission by the ruling party needs to be overlooked as they will
be in control for the next few years.
Before Dasuya and Sitarganj
by-polls, elections were held for Renuka and Nalagarh assembly segments in
Himachal Pradesh in December last year, four years after the ruling BJP came to
power in the state. Here the results were in the real sense surprising as BJP
won the stronghold of Congress while the Congress won from a seat which was the
stronghold of the BJP. The sympathy factor went for a toss as people rejected
the kith and kin of the deceased MLAs.
BJP had wrested Renuka seat from
the Congress but suffered defeat in its hands in its stronghold Nalagarh. In
Renuka, Hridaya Ram of BJP defeated Vinay Kumar of Congress by a narrow margin
of 3,526 votes. In Nalagarh, Lakhvinder Singh Rana of Congress defeated BJP's
Gurnam Kaur by a slender 1598 votes.
Both the BJP and Congress were
banking on sympathy votes in the by-polls as Congress had fielded Vinay Kumar,
son of Prem Singh who had won the seats six times, from Renuka while BJP had
nominated Gurnam Kaur, widow MLA, Hari Narayan Singh from Nalagarh. Held four
years after the government has assumed power, political and developmental
issues clicked for the candidates and not sympathy. This is what will matter in
the Himachal forthcoming Himachal assembly polls where both the BJP and
Congress are equally matched and each seat will have a tough fight.
The same was the case in Haryana
where the voters did not sympathise with the widow of deceased MLA Gian Chand
Odh in Ratia assembly segment in Fatehabad and rejected her outrightly in the
November 2011 by-polls. Congress won Ratia seat after 30 years with its
candidate Jarnail Singh defeating Sarfi Devi of INDL. Gian Chand Odh of the
INLD represented the seat in the state Assembly and his death had necessitated
the by-polls.
But Adampur in Hisar did not
throw any surprising result. Renuka Bishnoi, wife of HJC President Kuldeep
Bishnoi, won from the family stronghold on a seat vacated by her husband who
won from Hisar earlier in a high voltage Lok Sabha by-election. Bishnoi had
humbled Congress and INLD in Hisar by-polls which gained national prominence
due to Team Anna’s call to vote against Congress and the ruling party going in
the polls with all guns blazing to get the elusive victory.
By-polls in the last one year in
the region have thrown results - most of them on the predicted lines but
also where the pollsters were completely off the mark. Local, national and
emotional factors coupled with the profile of the candidate and the party which
they represent have proved crucial. At least this was the case with Dasuya and
Sitarganj. (July 16, 2012)
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