VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
Raja Saheb” Virbhadra Singh is
sulking. With assembly elections slated in the next four months in Himachal
Pradesh, he is behaving like a wife who wants a piece of jewellery in the
showroom at any cost. He is sure that he will have his way like the wife who
knows how much pressure to exert on the husband to get that elusive jewelry.
In the story books, you find how
the queens used to go into a secluded house (Kop Bhawan) to force the kings to
have their way. This is what Kaikeyi did to force King Dashrath to make her son
Bharat the king of Ayodhya. At the age of 78, Raja Saheb knows how to exert
pressure on the high command and how much. He has been the Chief Minister of
Himachal Pradesh five times and now wants it for the sixth time. That is plain
and simple.
Obviously, he cannot become the
Chief Minister unless he has a maximum number of his supporters elected as
MLAs. Also, the party has to win the elections. So the complaint of Singh is simple.
He cannot have his way and get party tickets for a maximum number of supporters
as a “neutral” Sheila Dikshit is the chairperson of the committee which has
been entrusted the task of selecting candidates for the assembly polls.
As the process of selection of
candidates is apparently with a group in which he hardly has any say, the Raja
Saheb wants that the high command declare him the chief ministerial candidate
of the party so that there are no obstacles in his way if the Congress wins and
is in a position to form the next Government. He has gone in the proverbial Kop
Bhawan to press for his demands.
What Harish Rawat did in
Uttarakhand after the Congress victory, Singh is doing a similar thing in the
neighbouring Himachal Pradesh. After the appointment of Vijay Bahuguna as the
Chief Minister, Rawat flexed his muscle for a while, went incommunicado and
even threatened revolt. But being the grand old party, Congress knows how to
deal with tantrums of its leaders. Rawat was mollified soon and no one knows
what was promised to him to remain silent and support Bahuguna.
Now, it is the turn of Virbhadra
Singh. He has learnt his lessons from the episode of Harish Rawat and wants to
ensure that this is not repeated in Himachal. The irony is not lost as there
are lot of similarities between Uttarakhand and Himachal - both are hill
states, share a common boundary, have practically a two-party system and even
the size of the assembly is almost similar.
But, there is many a slip between
the cup and the lip. A dichotomy is appearing between the demands of Singh and
the political game plan of his party. Both Virbhadra Singh and Congress high
command are playing like deft chess players. They are making one move at a time
and know the strengths and weaknesses of each other. Congress is facing a
dilemma as corruption has perhaps become the most important issue for the
polls, followed closely by development.
Singh had to resign from the
Union Cabinet as charges were framed against him by a court on corruption charges.
Congress would lose the first round to BJP straightaway if Singh is declared
the chief ministerial candidate. BJP would find a punching bag in Singh and
hammer the point across the state that Congress is patronizing corruption.
Though central leaders of
Congress are claiming that the party does not declare its chief ministerial
candidates, it is only partly true. Cap Amarinder Singh was declared the chief
ministerial candidate of the party by Rahul Gandhi himself before the Punjab
Assembly polls. It is a different matter that the party lost. Similarly,
Manmohan Singh was declared the prime ministerial candidate of the party by
Sonia Gandhi before the 2009 Lok Sabha elections.
Having observed Congress politics
closely, I am sure that interlocutors like Digvijay Singh must have promised
Raja Saheb that he will be the chief minister after Congress victory and
whatever the party is doing is only a posturing. But being an astute politician
who has been everything what a politician would ask for - MLA, MP, chief
minister, Union Cabinet Minister etc - the Raja knows that this time it will
indeed be difficult and the way to the crown is littered with thorns.
The Himachal crown is not easy
this time even in the unlikely scenario of a Congress win. Lok Sabha elections
would be held a year and half after the Himachal assembly polls and the
Congress cannot afford to install somebody against whom charges have been
framed in a court. The message would go all across the country and obviously
the party cannot afford such a negative publicity when heir apparent Rahul
Gandhi is set to play a “bigger role” in the organisation.
It is here in this dichotomous
situation that Congress is in for a big problem and faces the prospects of
losing the hill state like neighbouring Punjab where it
was taking victory for granted. Virbhadra Singh is clearly the only leader in
the state who enjoys mass support to some extent, knows the state like the back
of his hand and is the best bet of the party against the resurgent BJP which
has now put aside differences between chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal and
senior leader Shanta Kumar and put its house in order ahead of the polls.
“If Raja is in as the Chief
Ministerial candidate with charges of corruption, BJP would get enough
ammunition in the campaign to pin down the Congress. If he walks out and forms
a regional party, it would mean a walkover to the BJP,” a seasoned observed of
the state said. In both the eventualities, BJP gains and Congress loses ground.
There seems to be no middle path for the party in the State at this point.
Moreover, even if Congress does
not project Singh as the Chief Ministerial candidate, he keeps a low profile
till elections but is made the Chief Minister; the repercussions would be felt
at the central level. The damaging message that Congress is tolerant towards
corruption would be exploited by the opposition throughout 2013 and till the
Lok Sabha polls.
The ball is now in the court of
the central leaders. Congress managers will now be battling out to involve
Singh in the polls and use his vote catching ability but to dump him
eventually. Will the Raja Saheb take the bait? That will be the million rupee
question in the run-up to the Assembly polls. (July 30, 2012)
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