Four municipal corporations of Amritsar ,
Jalandhar, Ludhiana and Patiala
will go to polls on June 10. Elections are also being held for three municipal
councils and 29 nagar panchayats on June seven.
As Congress lost the January 30 Assembly elections, making
the dubious record of not being able to defeat an incumbent Akali Dal-BJP
government since the state was created, this would perhaps be the last chance
to redeem itself before the 2014 polls. But redemption may not be that easy,
particularly for State Congress President Capt Amarinder Singh who has been
battling a score of dissidents ever since the party lost the Assembly polls, the
results of which were out on March 6.
It is clear that if Congress does well, Captain Amarinder
stays. If it doesn’t, he goes. The central leaders have already made it amply
clear that the party will take a call on the new PCC President after the polls
to the corporations and the local bodies in Punjab . Not
even the staunchest supporter of the Captain would have any doubt on that. I
don’t think any party would be able to digest two consecutive defeats, if it
indeed happens, and would definitely look for scapegoats. There are not many
who can replace Capt Amarinder and keep the entire state unit along, but that
is the way politics plays itself out. He will have to vacate the chair for
someone else in case of a comprehensive defeat.
For the Akali Dal-BJP, the stakes are seemingly not that
high even though it will like to be in complete control of every centre of
power in the state. More so, when the municipal corporations of the four cities
have a substantial budget and clout too. The alliance has already created a
history by coming back to power in Punjab and is
enjoying what is called the “honeymoon” period of politics in which as per the
public perception you cannot do any wrong. The ruling alliance has made all
preparations to ensure that its election winning habit does not come to an end.
A series of transfers have been effected with an eye on the polls, before the
imposition of the model code of conduct. Rejection of the nominations of some
Congress supporters has already led to an uproar with the party likely to
approach the courts for remedy.
After the assembly polls, there has been hardly any
political issue for the SAD-BJP government to tackle except the case of Balwant
Singh Rajoana, assassin of former Punjab chief minister Beant Singh, who was
supposed to hang in Patiala jail. The Akali Dal government dealt with the
emotional issue deftly and managed to get the hanging postponed for an
indefinite period, giving much needed respite to the state. After the
government was sworn in, there has been no unpopular decisions and no
indication that the support base of the party has been affected.
For the Punjab BJP, which is playing the big brother in
these polls, the million dollar question would be to see whether its urban base
is intact or not. If the assembly polls are taken as a barometer of popular
will, the urban base of the BJP has shrunk considerably as it won only 12 of
the 23 seats it contested. This was seven short of the 19 which the party had
won in the 2007 Assembly polls. Riding on popular support and carrying forward
the support base of the assembly polls in the municipal corporation and local
bodies polls of 2007, the BJP had an impressive show last time round which it
will be struggling to retain this time.
The third party or rather a coalition in the fray would be
the People’s Party of Punjab (PPP). It played the
spoilsport for the Congress by getting over five per cent of the
anti-incumbency votes in the assembly elections early this year. It is again
the fray this time and now the party President Manpreet Singh Badal is claiming
that his party was aiming for 15 to 20 per cent votes in the civic
elections. PPP has stitched an alliance in which BSP, CPI and CPI(M) have
been included and it is set to play a spoilsport again.
Though these elections are being fought on local issues –
sanitation, water supply, sewerage, parks or the lack of it, power supply,
civic amenities etc., the issue of petrol price hike has been brought by the
SAD-BJP to corner the Congress. They are also targeting the party on alleged
scams but that may not be working as local factors affecting a colony and a
street are the actual issues and not macro issues affecting the country.
But the underlying tone and tenor of the elections are
clear. The results have the potential to change the political discourse of the
state and set it for the next big battle which is the Lok Sabha elections of
May 2014. If the Congress halts the victory march of the SAD-BJP combine, it
could hope for a good show in the 2014 polls but if the juggernaut of the
ruling alliance continuous, it would be ominous signs for the grand old party.
Congress would at least be hoping to share the honours as that could prevent
its cadres from getting directionless and losing hope at a time when they are
still licking their wounds from the defeat in the assembly elections. (28.5.2012)
http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/68567-local-body-polls-to-be-litmus-test-for-parties.html
http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/68567-local-body-polls-to-be-litmus-test-for-parties.html