Punjab and UP to shape political roadmap

After elections in Punjab and Uttarakhand, the spotlight has shifted to Uttar Pradesh which is currently in the midst of its most important election in recent years. Like Punjab, the outcome in UP too has the potential to make or break a few careers and shape the political roadmap for the general elections of 2014.

Let us take Punjab first where at the moment there is a lull before the storm. The results would be out on March 6, exactly 37 days after polling on January 30. All the key political players are working on different set of possibilities and accompanying permutations and combinations which could emerge after the results.

While Congress is jubilant, leaders have been partying expecting a win and already MLAs and would be MLAs have started jostling for possible Cabinet berths; Akali Dal is behaving more like a seasoned political party which has gone through the exercise so many times. It is, nevertheless, equally hopeful of a victory and party leaders are discussing the agenda and roadmap for the next few months.

Punjab Congress President Captain Amarinder Singh has indicated that this could be his last election. A win here and the Captain could be counted as the mascot of the party but a defeat would lead to a silent exit from active political scene. I am not sure that he would like to become the Leader of Opposition if the party, which he led during the polls, emerges with the runners-up trophy in the poll battle.

Taking a break from Congress tradition where chief ministers are not announced before the polls, Amarinder was named as the party’s choice for the top job by none other than Rahul Gandhi. This has led to heartburn amongst the 3-4 contenders but they showed unity as the party was smelling power and expected to do well. Due to the bickering in the state unit for long time, the high command bought peace two years ago when it named Amarinder as the PCC chief and Rajinder Kaur Bhattal as the Leader of Opposition. For Congress, power is a great glue which keeps different leaders together but when out of power, it is a different ballgame altogether.

If the party wins, things would work out smoothly but if it is out of power again for next five years, I am sure there would be a clamour for Amarinder’s head and demand would be raised to fix accountability. Post defeat, there could well be a new seat of leaders emerging in Punjab.

For the Akali Dal, this is definitely the last election of the veteran Parkash Singh Badal, looking for the fifth term as chief minister of the state. He has already delegated a larger part of the responsibility which he shouldered over the years to his son Sukhbir Singh Badal, who calls the shots in the party as the President.

If SAD is voted back to power, which will be a unique feat in the sense that no party has been repeated in Punjab post its reorganization in 1966, the arrangement would continue- senior Badal as CM and Sukhbir as Deputy CM and the President of the Akali Dal. But if SAD loses, it would definitely be curtains for the political career of the chief minister. The senior Badal would not like to take the position of Leader of Opposition in the state assembly like arch rival Amarinder Singh. He is 84-year old and would definitely delegate it to Sukhbir and would assume the role of an elder statesman in the party. More so because the position of Leader of Opposition would help Sukhbir carve a separate niche in state politics.

At a national level, the victory of SAD-BJP would give a fillip to NDA’s preparation for the 2014 elections and it would be a feather in the cap where NDA can claim that the state governments run by it have always been voted on the basis of performance. It can cite Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh and Gujarat – states where NDA governments have been repeated.

In Uttar Pradesh, it is Rahul Gandhi whose popularity is at stake. The scion of the Gandhi family and the crown prince has already addressed almost 150 meetings so far and if the result is not commensurate with the hype he has created, his claim for the top job of prime minister post 2014 general elections would be under cloud. If Congress does not emerge as a kingmaker in the largest state of the country, the road to 2014 would not be easy with obstacles all around.

UP observers and analysts are already talking of a hung assembly and the possibility of Samajwadi Party and Congress coming close both in the state and the Centre. In such a scenario, while UPA in the Centre would get a stable ally in place of perpetual “troublemaker” Mamata Banerjee, SP too would lap up the opportunity of Cabinet berths in the Centre apart from power in Lucknow.

But if BSP does well then this entire arithmetic would go for a toss. Traditionally, the pollsters and analysts have failed to properly assess the chances of BSP as they hardly reach the core vote bank of the party. There was hardly anyone who had predicted that Mayawati would come to power on her own in the 2007 polls. Though BJP is not inclined to come to the rescue of BSP if the party gets short of the magic number but in the churning of political forces, nothing can be ruled out.

So March 6 could well determine the way political forces are moving and in which direction. The 2014 polls would be a little over 2 years from the day the results are announced and obviously all the parties would learn their lessons in the assembly polls.

There are some more state assembly elections scheduled in the run-up to the 2014 polls. Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh would go to polls later this year in December while Karnataka would go to polls in May 2013. This would be followed by elections in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhatisgarh in December 2013.

But the results of Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh would clearly set the ball rolling and point to the broader trend of what the people have in mind. A win for BJP in Uttarakhand and NDA in Punjab alongwith an improved performance in Uttar Pradesh would give it the due momentum for the bigger battle ahead and embolden the opposition to go for the kill. Congress too would be hoping that electoral victory helps it in mitigating the problems confronting it in recent times – 2G scandal, Commonwealth Games, adverse court judgments, policy paralysis and also Baba Ramdev and Anna Hazare.

(The writer is Senior Editor, The Pioneer, Chandigarh)

http://dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/41948-punjab-and-up-to-shape-political-roadmap.html

(February 12, 2012)