Hooda faces acid test again

Adampur & Ratia by-polls

Amitabh Shukla / Chandigarh

Two bye-elections in Haryana, the campaigning for which ended on Monday, is set to test the political prowess of Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Congress. Though the outcome on December 4 would not affect either of the three parties and formations (Congress, INLD, HJC-BJP combine) in the state assembly, the long-term implications could be significant.

Ratia and Adampur by-polls on November 30 come close on the heels of the defeat of Congress in the Hisar Lok Sabha by-polls which saw the ruling party in Haryana face the ignominy of losing its security deposit. Now, if Congress loses both Ratia and Adampur, it will be a hatrick of defeats, something which the central party leadership would find difficult to fathom. To make the matters worse, chances of Congress winning any of the two seats is extremely slim given that the party has marginal presence in the poll-bound segments.

Ironically, all three seats – first Hisar and now Ratia and Adampur - had been held by the opposition in the state and Congress was in any case on a sticky wicket here. Hisar fell vacant after the death of Bhajan Lal, the legend of Haryana politics and his son Kuldeep Bishnoi stepped into the shoes of his father successfully by crushing the Congress and edging past INLD.

Ratia, a traditional seat of the opposition – first the Bansi Lal led Haryana Vikas Congress and later Om Prakash Chautala led INLD, fell vacant due to the death of INLD MLA Gyan Chand Odh. Congress has never won from here in the last almost 30 years but if it doesn’t do so now when the focus is on this non-Jat constituency, then certainly questions would be raised regarding the popularity of Hooda and Congress.

Similarly, Adampur has been a family stronghold of Bhajan Lal and the seat fell vacant after Bishnoi got elected from Hisar in the parliamentary by-poll. No one, even the staunchest Congress supporter is enthusiastic about the result which they say is a foregone conclusion. Renuka Bishnoi, the wife of Kuldeep is set to make her debut in the state assembly from this seat, even her opponents admit that.

It is a strange quirk of fate that Hooda had to battle out Hisar and now two by-elections – all of which have been traditional weak links of the Congress. Politically, if he manages even a single win now, it would be an achievement but if he loses all two seats, knives would be out for him in the faction ridden state unit.

Already a section of powerful Haryana leaders like AICC General Secretary Birender Singh and Union Minister Selja are running a campaign against him and three consecutive defeats would only make the matters worse for Hooda who has been in power for seven years now. Hisar defeat sharpened the differences between Hooda and his detractors and two more defeats will take it to a point of no return, observers felt here.

For the fledging alliance of Haryana Janhit Congress and BJP, even a win in Adampur would further cement the ties between the two and prepare them for the next round of Lok Sabha polls in 2014. The allies who are set to share 45 seats each in the next assembly polls and 8 (BJP) and 2 (HJC) in the Lok Sabha polls have successfully polarised anti-Jat votes in the state. In Ratia, it is the BJP nominee who has been pitched against INLD and Congress. If the votes polled by BJP and HJC in the last assembly polls are combined, the tally still falls short of the victorious candidate. But even if the party does not win and is able to get second position, it would indicate that the alliance has gone well with the non-Jat voters of the state and has the potential to upset all poll calculations.

For the INLD a win in Ratia is a must to keep its flock together. It has been out of power for almost seven years now and cannot afford to lose another by-election after Hisar. It has fielded Sarfi Devi, widow of the deceased MLA to cash in on the sympathy factor and retain the seat.

Given the political fallout and long term implications of the two by-polls, all top leaders are campaigning intensively, holding rallies and using all their political guile, something not seen in the run-of-the-mill by-polls. Who is who of Haryana politics is there to campaign along with some national leaders signifying the importance of these by-polls in political realignment. (November 29, 2011)

http://dailypioneer.com/nation/23994-hooda-faces-acid-test-again.html