Advani creates ripples

BJP leader LK Advani’s Jan Chetna Yatra is taking place in the region at a time when Punjab stares at assembly elections, UT of Chandigarh is in the middle of civic elections and both Haryana and Himachal Pradesh have assembly by-polls to contend with.

Out of the four geographical boundaries, BJP is in power in the hill state of Himachal and shares power with the Akali Dal as a junior partner in Punjab. It has not been near power in Chandigarh (which only has an elected civic body) for almost a decade while in Haryana, a new alliance has been formed with the Kuldeep Bishnoi led HJC which shows promise as it announced its intent and seriousness in state politics by romping home in the Hisar by polls, considered a watershed in national politics.

It would be premature to analyse the impact of Advani’s Yatra in the region as various political permutations and combinations would be at play in the polls. Moreover, the Yatra was not to highlight regional and state level issues but those concerns which impact all citizens.

But the fact that the Yatra exposed the fissures which the party is having with the Akali Dal is now being admitted by the state BJP leaders in Punjab. Advani was not accorded the type of welcome he deserved as the top leader of NDA. Moreover, BJP leaders felt that SAD deliberately disassociated itself from the Yatra and the ruling party could have handled the protests of the radical Sikh organizations against Advani more deftly.

In addition, instead of a NDA show of strength, it was mainly a BJP show in Punjab with Akali supporters generally keeping away as they had not received directions to come out whole heartedly in support. Nevertheless, the veteran of many a Yatra, Advani was full of vigour and with single minded focus continued his tirade against the UPA and black money stashed in foreign banks.

The Yatra coincided with fierce “verbal war” being fought between the Akalis and its main challenger, Congress. The lung power being exhibited sometimes assumes comic proportions with rival camps spinning creative words and phrases to counter each other. Not a single statement by either chief minister Parkash Singh Badal, Deputy CM Sukhbir Badal or PCC chief Captain Amarinder Singh remains unchallenged in the surcharged political atmosphere.

In this backdrop, February could well turn out to be a watershed in Indian politics and would set the tone for the larger political battle for power in Delhi in the summer of 2014. If the Akali-BJP alliance overcomes the odds and manages to retain power, it would be a setback which Congress is never going to forget. More so, when Manmohan Singh, considered a “son of the soil” is the Prime Minister of the country and a Punjabi icon who has made it big, really big, outside the state, something which every Punjabi aspires for.

But if Congress romps home, it would indicate that issues like Jan Lokpal, Anna Hazare, black money stashed abroad, corruption in high places, runaway inflation etc only have a marginal impact on the people when they go out to exercise their franchise. Elections for Uttar Pradesh Assembly would also be held around the same time as that of Punjab, may be a month later. It too, along with Punjab, would be a crucial landmark for both the Congress and BJP as the largest state in political terms would send a message which is not going to be lost.

By polls of Ratia and Adampur in Haryana too are coming at a time when the Bhupinder Singh Hooda led Congress government is yet to emerge from the aftershocks of the Hisar defeat. The ruling party’s candidate had lost his security deposit, an embarrassment which no explanation from the party can justify. While the outcome at Adampur in the November 30 bye-election is a foregone conclusion, being a stronghold of the Bishnoi family, it would be at Ratia where both BJP and Congress would be tested. Being an INLD stronghold, performance of the BJP-HJC alliance and Congress would be keenly watched here. BJP is contesting Ratia for the first time after an alliance with HJC was stitched and party in-charge of the state Harsh Vardhan says that lost ground has been covered and they were looking for an impressive outing in the electoral arena.

In UT of Chandigarh, changes brought about in reservation of seats have upset the poll calculations of both ruling Congress and the main opposition BJP in the civic body. Ten years of anti-incumbency has forced Congress on the back foot but the challenge of BJP is seemingly not strong enough. The party is yet to find a leader of the stature of Union Minister Pawan Kumar Bansal who runs the Congress show here. As it would be primarily an urban milieu in which voting will take place, the outcome would surely be keenly watched as it would indicate which party has influence on the urban voters of the country, a segment which is growing rapidly.

Himachal’s assembly election will be held almost a year from now. So the by polls might not matter much. But it will surely point to the trend and whether the ruling BJP is able to hold on to its strength or not. So both Congress and BJP are set to put into place all their political might to give the right message to the electorate of the hill state.

As Advani continues with his Yatra, political parties of Punjab perhaps have learnt the most from his numerous yatras in the past. Be it the SAD, Congress or the PPP – all are trying various hues of the Yatra in the state in the run-up to the February battle. Only the result would indicate which Yatra has been able to convince the voters and which remained merely a travel on the dusty roads, lanes and bylanes of Punjab. (November 20, 2011)

(The writer is Senior Editor, The Pioneer, Chandigarh)

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