CAPT LEADS CONG'S LANDSLIDE WIN IN PUNJAB

Amitabh Shukla | Chandigarh  

Riding on a massive two-term anti-incumbency against the ruling SAD-BJP regime, a resurgent Congress under Capt Amarinder Singh won a landslide in Punjab, decimating the Aam Aadmi Party in the process and its dream of emerging as a centrist national alternative to the Congress.

In what is a silver lining for the Congress in an otherwise gloomy scenario, the party won a massive 77 of the 117 seats, a remarkable feat for a winner in the last several decades.

While the loss of SAD-BJP was a foregone conclusion given its unpopularity due to a record 10 continuous years in power, the loss of AAP has dashed it national ambitions. The Arvind Kejriwal led party was hoping to win Punjab and spread nationally ahead of the 2019 elections-a dream, now badly shattered.

"This is a mandate for stability and progress as well as good governance," Capt Amarinder said in his first media interaction after victory, listing education and health as two areas of immediate concern for his Government. He will be formally elected as CLP leader and Chief Minister in a meeting of the newly elected MLAs in Chandigarh on Sunday. Many observers in Punjab see this as a victory of the Captain and his aggressive style of campaigning, bolstered by advice from Prashant Kishor rather than to the grand old party itself.

“It is like the emergence of a new regional party under Capt Amarinder,” said an old timer.

For the 89-year-old poll veteran and Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal, the dream of becoming the Chief Minister for sixth time was dashed. He, however, was humble in defeat, accepting the people's verdict and offering full cooperation to Amarinder Singh to work for the rights of Punjab. "We will discuss the reasons will threadbare at the core committee meeting of the party. I will also ask SAD President Sukhbir Singh Badal to set up a committee to look into the reason behind party's failure in the polls,” the patron of the party said.

Both Congress and AAP had marked the ruling combine well and from the beginning blamed it for the entire woes of the state, be it drug menace, unemployment, shift of industries, demonetisation, personality cult around the Badal family, nepotism, promoting dynastic rule and what not.

To make the matters worse for the Akali Dal, most of the charges stuck as the party was unable to ward off the attack on it. AAP's Gurpreet Ghuggi too accepted defeat and offered the cadres that it will introspect on the reasons. But what stumped the pollsters was the margin of defeat. A party which was supposed to be a contender for power, came a distant second.

"People wanted experience and did not want to experiment," said a Congress leader.  He said AAP was flirting with danger in the border State with Sikh radicals and other extremists, championing its cause.  "The minority community (read Hindus) deserted the AAP in a big way and contributed to its defeat, the Congress leader added.

AAP insiders said it was a combination of factors. They pointed out that the Dera Sacha Sauda supported Akali Dal at the last moment and it helped them in the Malwa belt, affected AAP's chances. "These were the votes going to AAP, but went to SAD," an AAP leader said.

In addition, a bomb blast in Bhatinda just before the polling, was seen by many as the return of the dark days of terrorism. They wanted stability and with SAD ruled out, Congress was the only viable alternative.   (March 12, 2017)

http://www.dailypioneer.com/state-editions/chandigarh/capt-leads-congs-landslide-win-in-punjab.html

PUNJAB ELECTION TOO CLOSE TO CALL

 

Amitabh Shukla | Chandigarh

The first ever triangular fight in Punjab in several decades has thrown open several political possibilities in the border State as the electorate go for their choice for the next five years on Saturday.

Battling an extremely strong two-term anti incumbency, the ruling Shiromani Akal Dal and the BJP have ceded considerable space to the rookie Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), particularly in the crucial Malwa belt having 69 of the 117 Assembly segments.

A late announcement of support by the Sirsa (Haryana) based Dera Sacha Sauda to the SAD-BJP combine is cutting both ways and is expected to neutralise the gains of the ruling combine. The hardline Sikhs are opposed to the Dera ever since its head, Gurmeet Ram Rahim, was allegedly seen in a dress similar to Guru Gobind Singh in 2007 and are strongly opposing the support extended by the Dera, saying the SAD is “shedding its panthic colours” by taking such support and now has little regard for Sikh sentiments.

Interestingly, after the Dera support to SAD-BJP, the AAP has managed to get the support of the radical Sikhs who were still undecided whom to vote for. Already getting the support of the fringe radicals, extremists and others who were opposed to the moderate Akali style of politics, the latest development seems to have consolidated the panthic (religious) votes for AAP which hitherto went to SAD.

“The AAP is the new Akali Dal,” summed up a senior party leader in Chandigarh, adding that the aspirations of the Sikhs in the new millennium was consistently ignored by the Akali Dal. No wonder SAD, claiming to be the custodian of the Sikh heritage and religion ever since it fought against the Mahants to take control of the Gurdwaras in the early last century, is feeling threatened like never before. If AAP manages to encroach cadre votes of the Akalis, the party would be headed for its worst ever performance in decades. What is more, this would considerably damage its prospects in future elections.

What eroded the cadre vote bank of the Akalis was a series of desecration incidents of Guru Granth Sahib in the last two years and the perception of the common Sikhs that the Government did not do anything to arrest the culprits and prevent the incidents. The developmental plank of the SAD-BJP alliance did not work as it should have given the high expectations of the people in the second term.

The controversy of five high priests exonerating Gurmeet Ram Rahim of blasphemy in October 2015 (allegedly at the instance of the government) and the Panj Piyaras (five beloved) rising in revolt against the decision further eroded the credibility of the Akalis amongst the common Sikhs. The issue remains unresolved even as AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal tried to fish in troubled waters by meeting the Panj piyaras in the run up to the polls.

The Congress, on the other hand, had everything going for it in these polls after a long time. In recent years, the party is going to the polls on a common cause and projecting a united face. All factional and at times suicidal fights within the party came to an end as the larger cause was the defeat of the Akalis.

Political leaders in the State point out that the SAD-BJP Government had let lose a regime of persecution of their political opponents like the Congress through the “halqa in-charge” system. In this, the halqa in-charge was either a MLA or a defeated MLA or one appointed by SAD in an area co-terminus with the jurisdiction of a Sub-Divisional Police Officer (SDPO). He was the one who issued directions to police to file cases against opponents and their family members.

Due to this regressive system of halqa in-charge, which finds no parallel in any other State, except perhaps the CPI-M in West Bengal during their heydays, the anti-incumbency against the Akalis increased manifold in the rural areas and Congress found itself to be a natural beneficiary. 

What helped the Congress further was appointment of Capt Amarinder Singh first as State Congress president and in the run-up to the polls as chief ministerial candidate of the party.

Amarinder reached out to his opponents within like Partap Singh Bajwa and Rajinder Kaur Bhattar and had a complete control on ticket distribution. The entry of Navjot Singh Sidhu in the party, though a little late in the day, energised the Congress cadres. Sidhu may not be a grassroots politician or may not last in politics as he is more of an intellectual asset but his crowd connect is immense. What Bhagwant Mann has done to AAP due to his crowd connect, Sidhu did for the Congress. The Punjabis loved his one liners against the father and son duo of Parkash Singh Badal and Sukhbir Badal and he campaigned energetically throughout the State.

The BJP, a junior partner of the Akali Dal for a long time, lost the bus. Even though the party had little say in the alliance government and could never ever get the post of Deputy Chief Minister, the baggage of the big brother weighed heavy on it. Many in the party admit that In Punjab this time round, the party should have gone alone like it did in Maharashtra. “They could have projected Sidhu as a leader and parted ways with the Akalis six months ago,” said a senior party leader. He said Sidhu’s fight was against the Badals and not the BJP as such. 

Many in Punjab vouch that the main fight is between Congress and AAP in the state and SAD-BJP alliance is a distant third. Though support of Dera Sacha Sauda would help the ruling alliance in Malwa, but only partially. AAP could take a lead in Malwa belt on Congress. But it would be in Majha (Border districts) and Doaba (districts between Sutlej and Beas)  where the real battle would be fought. If AAP makes inroads into the dalit belt of Doaba and get a few seats in Majha, Punjab could go its way. Contrarily, if Congress takes control of Majha and manages its hold on the dalits of Doaba, besides a reasonable seats in Malwa, the State could go its way.

“It’s  a cliffhanger…very close,” that is the verdict of most of the political analysts in the State Capital Chandigarh.  (February 4, 2017)  

http://www.dailypioneer.com/nation/punjab-election-too-close-to-call.html

The road ahead for Sidhu and the BJP

Amitabh Shukla | in Oped

Navjot Singh Sidhu's exit may not hurt the BJP, but in case he joins the AAP, it will be a challenge for him to get used to the dictatorial-style of Arvind Kejriwal

The exit of Navjot Singh Sidhu from the BJP might not have much impact on the Punjab unit of the party, except on its psychological bearings to some extent, in the run-up to the Assembly poll early next year. Despite loud claims of the new patrons of Sidhu, he was practically out of politics for a pretty long time; he hardly campaigned for the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha election and had even boycotted the campaign for his political ‘guru', Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, in Amritsar Lok Sabha seat. To add to his political see-saw, now, he has ditched the man he often called his ‘role model' — Prime Minister Narendra Modi — despite being given a Rajya Sabha nomination, barely three months ago.

It is a different matter altogether that had Sidhu contested the Amritsar Lok Sabha seat, his defeat margin could have been much higher than that of Jaitley and he would have left politics. When I was in Amritsar, covering the campaign for the 2014 Lok Sabha poll, I felt that there was a discernible undercurrent against Sidhu and his two terms as an MP, and it proved to be costly for Jaitley. What made matters worse was an intransigent approach of Sidhu who refused to be seen on the same platform with Jaitley throughout the campaign, despite being the sitting MP from the place. No one in the BJP ever asked Sherry, as Sidhu is popularly known, if it was prudent and morally correct to ditch a ‘guru’ for one's ego and nothing else?

In fact, indications of growing unpopularity of the sitting MP became visible in the last few years. Sidhu's wife, Navjot Kaur Sidhu won from Amritsar East constituency in 2012 Assembly poll, a part of Sidhu's constituency then, narrowly only because of a rebel Congress candidate who was in the second position. Sidhu himself won the 2009 Lok Sabha poll by merely 7,000 votes, a far cry from the voter percentage of over 55 he got in the 2004 poll and over 50 in the 2007 by-election.

His victory margin in the three elections he fought from the holy city, including a by-election, consistently came down. The biggest fault for the BJP was that it could not see the writing on the wall as far as the role of Sidhu was concerned and continued to trust the former Indian cricketer despite his direct and indirect role in the defeat of Jaitley. It was fairly clear then that Sidhu could not be trusted for a bigger role in the party.

The reasons for Sidhu's disenchantment is not far to seek. He could not get big ticket projects for his constituency, he could not build a bridge with the cadres of the BJP as he never felt he was a part of them and was continuously in bickering mode with the ruling Shiromani Akali Dal which the BJP had allied with. Also, perhaps he nursed the idea of heading the SAD-BJP coalition one day which was not practical as SAD was the bigger part of the alliance.

Sidhu's desire that the BJP should severe its ties with the SAD lacked political imagination from the very beginning. Given the socio-religious dimensions of Punjab and it being a Sikh-dominated State, the BJP was not in a position to think about it. Also, the BJP is present largely in the cities and urban pockets of the State and cannot do without the massive rural and Jat peasantry support of the Akali Dal. Moreover, given the tumultuous past of the State and militancy, leaders like Parkash Singh Badal, may have other limitations and inadequacy, but have continuously worked for communal amity and a SAD-BJP alliance was crucial in this scheme of things.

In fact, his wife and MLA from Amritsar, Navjot Kaur Sidhu too simply ranted the political views of her husband. She was at loggerheads with almost everyone in Punjab BJP and the Akali Dal and was a “rebel without cause” as a BJP leader put it.

Even though Sidhu's exit may not hurt the BJP to that extent as he was, in any case, a non-playing batsman, it would definitely bolster the chances of Aam Aadmi Party as and when he decides to join it. Playing the role of non-conformist throughout his political career would help him in his new avatar and give him fresh political life. However, he still will have to conform to the norms of the AAP and the one-man dictatorship that has emerged in the party of late. It will of course be a challenge to the new convert to AAP ideology given his past record. (July 21, 2016)

 http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/oped/the-road-ahead-for-sidhu-and-the-bjp.html

Sidhu’s pregnant pause feeds speculation about next move

 

 

Amitabh Shukla | Chandigarh

It was a strategic silence by cricketer-turned-politician-turned comedy show judge Navjot Singh Sidhu on Tuesday that triggered a political speculation as to which way the former Indian batsman is headed.

After quitting his Rajya Sabha seat on Monday, the 52-year-old Sidhu remained on what his wife with the same first name, Navjot Kaur Sidhu, called a “maun vrat” on the day of Buddha Purnima. Sidhu’s phone remained on the silent mode throughout the day even as his wife did the plain talk and threw several potential possibilities for Sidhu.

The three possibilities at this moment for the former Amritsar MP are — remain with the BJP, join the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and become its face in Punjab or to hang on to the lollypop thrown by Punjab Congress president Amarinder Singh and join the party, like his father did decades ago. However, like a seasoned cricket analyst, Navjot Kaur gave ample hints that her husband was on his way to bat for Arvind Kejriwal’s party in Punjab.

Like a good batsman, Sidhu played the waiting game on the turning track but his MLA wife said the nominated member of the BJP had simultaneously resigned from the Rajya Sabha seat and the party as well. But giving indications of a compromise, she said she was still a part of the SAD-BJP Government in Punjab and would continue as Chief Parliamentary Secretary (CPS). Punjab Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal too said he has not got any resignation so far though he said the exit of Sidhu from the BJP will not make any difference on the prospects of the alliance in the Punjab Assembly polls early next year.

As Sidhu kept the suspense, there was no official confirmation from the Punjab BJP of his resignation from the party. “Both Navjot Singh Sidhu and his wife Navjot Kaur Sidhu are still in the BJP,” said State BJP chief and Union Minister Vijay Sampla. He said that the party would react only when it gets an official statement from Sidhu.

But BJP sources indicated that this time no one from the BJP would reach out to Sidhu given his unpredictable political behaviour. “He was nominated to the Rajya Sabha by none other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He has clearly betrayed his trust by resigning without consulting anyone in the party. Earlier, he refused to campaign for Arun Jaitley from Amritsar. His days in the party are over,” said a senior BJP leader in Punjab.

Amritsar East MLA maintained that her husband had resigned from the BJP due to differences with the SAD which has “pushed him to the wall and he was left with no option”. She added that she was not aware that Sidhu was going to resign and waiting to listen from him about his future plans.

“It is our principal stand that if the BJP continues its alliance with the SAD, we would not contest the next elections on the BJP ticket. And he has taken the decision as per his conscience,” said Navjot Kaur.

Without confirming that her husband would join the AAP, Navjot Kaur said she was an “ardent fan of Arvind Kejriwal”.

“I liked him because he talks about giving good education, free health facilities and cheap power to people. He is ground-level worker like me,” she said.

AAP sources in Punjab said that Sidhu, a Jat Sikh, would solve the party’s problem of leadership in the State where the political momentum is with it. “He is a candidate without any baggage, a typical leader of the AAP variety,” said a source.

Fishing in troubled waters, Punjab Congress chief Amarinder Singh offered an olive branch to Sidhu, famous for his one liners and punch lines. He said Sidhu was welcome to join the Congress, if he desired to do so. “Congress party’s doors are open for everyone,” he remarked.

However, Amarinder clarified that there was no communication between him and Sidhu on the matter. The PCC president said, that Sidhu had a Congress background as his father late Bhagwant Singh Sidhu had remained an office-bearer of the District Congress Committee, Patiala.

Asked whether he had met Sidhu of late, Capt Amarinder said, “We are both from Patiala and we are both Sidhus”. He said he had seen him playing and practicing cricket when he was young. “I don’t remember having met him for a long time now,” he added.

The ball is in Sidhu’s court now. But it is almost certain that the doors of the BJP are close for him while that of the AAP has opened. (July 20, 2016)

http://www.dailypioneer.com/todays-newspaper/sidhus-pregnant-pause-feeds-speculation-about-next-move.html

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