Amitabh
Shukla | Chandigarh
The
first ever triangular fight in Punjab in several decades has thrown open
several political possibilities in the border State as the electorate go for
their choice for the next five years on Saturday.
Battling
an extremely strong two-term anti incumbency, the ruling Shiromani Akal Dal and
the BJP have ceded considerable space to the rookie Aam Aadmi Party (AAP),
particularly in the crucial Malwa belt having 69 of the 117 Assembly segments.
A
late announcement of support by the Sirsa (Haryana) based Dera Sacha Sauda to
the SAD-BJP combine is cutting both ways and is expected to neutralise the
gains of the ruling combine. The hardline Sikhs are opposed to the Dera ever
since its head, Gurmeet Ram Rahim, was allegedly seen in a dress similar to
Guru Gobind Singh in 2007 and are strongly opposing the support extended by the
Dera, saying the SAD is “shedding its panthic colours” by taking such support
and now has little regard for Sikh sentiments.
Interestingly,
after the Dera support to SAD-BJP, the AAP has managed to get the support of
the radical Sikhs who were still undecided whom to vote for. Already getting
the support of the fringe radicals, extremists and others who were opposed to
the moderate Akali style of politics, the latest development seems to have
consolidated the panthic (religious) votes for AAP which hitherto went to SAD.
“The
AAP is the new Akali Dal,” summed up a senior party leader in Chandigarh,
adding that the aspirations of the Sikhs in the new millennium was consistently
ignored by the Akali Dal. No wonder SAD, claiming to be the custodian of the
Sikh heritage and religion ever since it fought against the Mahants to take
control of the Gurdwaras in the early last century, is feeling threatened like
never before. If AAP manages to encroach cadre votes of the Akalis, the party
would be headed for its worst ever performance in decades. What is more, this
would considerably damage its prospects in future elections.
What
eroded the cadre vote bank of the Akalis was a series of desecration incidents
of Guru Granth Sahib in the last two years and the perception of the common
Sikhs that the Government did not do anything to arrest the culprits and
prevent the incidents. The developmental plank of the SAD-BJP alliance did not
work as it should have given the high expectations of the people in the second
term.
The
controversy of five high priests exonerating Gurmeet Ram Rahim of blasphemy in
October 2015 (allegedly at the instance of the government) and the Panj Piyaras
(five beloved) rising in revolt against the decision further eroded the
credibility of the Akalis amongst the common Sikhs. The issue remains
unresolved even as AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal tried to fish in troubled waters
by meeting the Panj piyaras in the run up to the polls.
The
Congress, on the other hand, had everything going for it in these polls after a
long time. In recent years, the party is going to the polls on a common cause
and projecting a united face. All factional and at times suicidal fights within
the party came to an end as the larger cause was the defeat of the Akalis.
Political
leaders in the State point out that the SAD-BJP Government had let lose a
regime of persecution of their political opponents like the Congress through
the “halqa in-charge” system. In this, the halqa in-charge was either a MLA or
a defeated MLA or one appointed by SAD in an area co-terminus with the
jurisdiction of a Sub-Divisional Police Officer (SDPO). He was the one who
issued directions to police to file cases against opponents and their family
members.
Due
to this regressive system of halqa in-charge, which finds no parallel in any
other State, except perhaps the CPI-M in West Bengal during their heydays, the
anti-incumbency against the Akalis increased manifold in the rural areas and
Congress found itself to be a natural beneficiary.
What
helped the Congress further was appointment of Capt Amarinder Singh first as
State Congress president and in the run-up to the polls as chief ministerial
candidate of the party.
Amarinder
reached out to his opponents within like Partap Singh Bajwa and Rajinder Kaur
Bhattar and had a complete control on ticket distribution. The
entry of Navjot Singh Sidhu in the party, though a little late in the day,
energised the Congress cadres. Sidhu may not be a grassroots politician or may
not last in politics as he is more of an intellectual asset but his crowd
connect is immense. What Bhagwant Mann has done to AAP due to his crowd connect,
Sidhu did for the Congress. The Punjabis loved his one liners against the
father and son duo of Parkash Singh Badal and Sukhbir Badal and he campaigned
energetically throughout the State.
The
BJP, a junior partner of the Akali Dal for a long time, lost the bus. Even
though the party had little say in the alliance government and could never ever
get the post of Deputy Chief Minister, the baggage of the big brother weighed
heavy on it. Many in the party admit that In Punjab this time round, the party
should have gone alone like it did in Maharashtra. “They could have projected
Sidhu as a leader and parted ways with the Akalis six months ago,” said a
senior party leader. He said Sidhu’s fight was against the Badals and not the
BJP as such.
Many
in Punjab vouch that the main fight is between Congress and AAP in the state
and SAD-BJP alliance is a distant third. Though support of Dera Sacha Sauda
would help the ruling alliance in Malwa, but only partially. AAP could take a
lead in Malwa belt on Congress. But it would be in Majha (Border districts) and
Doaba (districts between Sutlej and Beas)
where the real battle would be fought. If AAP makes inroads into the
dalit belt of Doaba and get a few seats in Majha, Punjab could go its way.
Contrarily, if Congress takes control of Majha and manages its hold on the
dalits of Doaba, besides a reasonable seats in Malwa, the State could go its
way.
“It’s a cliffhanger…very close,” that is the
verdict of most of the political analysts in the State Capital Chandigarh. (February 4, 2017)
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