Over to national Capital Delhi again


VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA


A lot of water, or rather sewage, has flown down the Yamuna in the last one year. Despite the constant of the Yamuna, rapid political changes have taken place in the national Capital and a new political dispensation is firmly in place.

The only constant perhaps is political uncertainty regarding the State Government as many pundits argue that the results of 2013 polls would be replicated again. Last year, the people of Delhi gave a hung House after throwing out the Sheila Dikshit Government. In a few weeks from now, they would be voting for a fresh government and the votaries of stability argue against a similar mandate and hope for a clear verdict this time round.

Delhi will be an interesting case study for pollsters this time again. Many find it difficult to explain the rise of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as a regional player in the national Capital, taking over the vote base of the Congress. The few remaining Congress loyalists, on the other hand, still can’t pin point the reasons for its political humiliation at the hands of AAP in Delhi and its decimation all over the country by Narendra Modi-led BJP.

Congress continues with its infighting, dynasty worship, lack of a big idea, sycophancy, defending the indefensible, and its refusal to introspect and accept the ground realities. There is little or no reason to believe that it will bounce back unless it reassesses and reinvents itself. It is difficult to imagine Congress doing that in the short run. So it is safe to write off the Congress from the political space of Delhi, at least in the Assembly polls, expected in another two months.

That makes the Assembly polls a straight contest between a resurgent BJP and a defensive Aam Aadmi Party for the 70 seats of Delhi. Bucking the trend of smaller states of giving unstable governments, Delhi always gave a clear mandate ever since the State Assembly came into being in 1993. The only exception, of course, was the 2013 polls which threw a hung House after Congress was decimated and AAP substituted it effectively. This was also the first time in two decades when the monopoly of two parties was effectively broken.

As the entire focus and energy of AAP is now limited to Delhi, it has tried to reinvent itself and move away from its corruption, Jan Lokpal, bijli and paani (power and water) issues. As the threat of BJP wiping away all the gains of AAP and reducing it to a fringe player is always there, Kejriwal and his team is trying to become more accommodative. It has now launched a five-point programme for students and youth of Delhi ahead of the ensuing Delhi Assembly polls. It may not be getting the media attention as it got last year but as a part of its Delhi vision, the party has announced education loan for every student in Delhi after Class XII for a period of six years, including one year for job start and setting up of 20 new Delhi Government colleges in outer Delhi in partnership with villages.

The Modi effect was also visible in the announcement of “Delhi Skill Mission” through which it hopes to create five-seven lakh jobs in five years. Whatever the motivation, AAP has tried to reinvent itself and has used the medium of youth. It knows that every family has a youth in Delhi and they influence the decision making of the family. This is clever politics ahead of the polls. So when AAP leader Yogendra Yadav challenges BJP and the Congress to spell out their agenda for the youth, he has struck the right notes.

Skill development and income generation is another focus area of the party that has chalked out a well-thought out roadmap for the same. To bridge the skill-gap in the national Capital, the party will not only promote vocational education and skill development in schools and colleges, but also create innovative and private start up accelerators to provide support to entrepreneurs.

Apart from spelling out its agenda, AAP is first off the blocks to declare its list of candidates, giving them enough time to prepare for the polls. The remaining names would be declared anytime now and if there are changes, it can be made in the run up to the polls.

Clearly, Congress and BJP are far behind as of now. For AAP, Delhi Assembly polls are a matter of life and death. If it does well, it survives politically; if it doesn’t the epitaph writers are ready.

Basking in the glory of Modi, BJP hopes to do well and form the Government on its own by crossing the magic figure of 35. However, unlike the last time when Dr Harsh Vardhan was the chief ministerial candidate, the party has refrained from announcing any names. A section of the party believes that after the ENT specialist from Krishna Nagar, Dr Harsh Vardhan was divested of the Health Ministry and given a lighter charge in Modi Cabinet, he could well be brought in as the chief ministerial candidate again.

This will obviously give a fillip to the party’s campaign as he is acceptable to all sections in the party. Besides, this, BJP will also have to come out with a specific agenda for Delhi and not limit itself to the vision of Modi alone as local factors do play a significant role in the final outcome. To give a leg up to the preparations, BJP’s different morchas and cells are organising workers’ meetings in different areas and ongoing membership campaign is being intensified. But obviously, the trump card remains Modi and BJP has decided that the work he has initiated after coming to power in May would be made into a poll issue.

Coming back to the Congress, clearly it is nursing its wound, inflicted everywhere. It will take time for the party to recoup and martial its resources. Even the staunchest Congress supporter admits this. Sheila Dikshit, who lost last year, was just a symptom of the disease plaguing the party. She obviously can’t be the face of the party for the assembly polls. Ajay Maken would also prefer to remain in the AICC as General Secretary rather than head for the Assembly polls where a defeat is certain.

I earnestly hope that Congress organises a brain storming session spanning over several days where free and frank opinion is exchanged within the party and it comes out with ideas and strategy to suit the changing times in all States and the country.

It is too early to predict the outcome of Delhi polls. A lot of water will flow down the Yamuna in the next few weeks when the campaign picks up; a lot of dirty linen will be washed publicly. Several strategies will be drawn and then redrawn. Many skeletons will come out of the cupboards. For BJP, Delhi is no longer as important as it was in 2013 and will only cement its base for forward march, for AAP it’s a question of political revival and survival; and for Congress it will show whether it still has the spirit to fight or has even lost that. (November 17, 2014)


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