VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
A lot of water, or rather sewage,
has flown down the Yamuna in the last one year. Despite the constant of the
Yamuna, rapid political changes have taken place in the national Capital and a
new political dispensation is firmly in place.
The only constant perhaps is
political uncertainty regarding the State Government as many pundits argue that
the results of 2013 polls would be replicated again. Last year, the people of Delhi
gave a hung House after throwing out the Sheila Dikshit Government. In a few
weeks from now, they would be voting for a fresh government and the votaries of
stability argue against a similar mandate and hope for a clear verdict this
time round.
Congress continues with its
infighting, dynasty worship, lack of a big idea, sycophancy, defending the
indefensible, and its refusal to introspect and accept the ground realities.
There is little or no reason to believe that it will bounce back unless it
reassesses and reinvents itself. It is difficult to imagine Congress doing that
in the short run. So it is safe to write off the Congress from the political
space of Delhi , at least in the
Assembly polls, expected in another two months.
That makes the Assembly polls a
straight contest between a resurgent BJP and a defensive Aam Aadmi Party for
the 70 seats of Delhi . Bucking the
trend of smaller states of giving unstable governments, Delhi
always gave a clear mandate ever since the State Assembly came into being in
1993. The only exception, of course, was the 2013 polls which threw a hung
House after Congress was decimated and AAP substituted it effectively. This was
also the first time in two decades when the monopoly of two parties was
effectively broken.
As the entire focus and energy of
AAP is now limited to Delhi, it has tried to reinvent itself and move away from
its corruption, Jan Lokpal, bijli and paani (power and water) issues. As the
threat of BJP wiping away all the gains of AAP and reducing it to a fringe
player is always there, Kejriwal and his team is trying to become more
accommodative. It has now launched a five-point programme for students and
youth of Delhi ahead of the ensuing
Delhi Assembly polls. It may not be getting the media attention as it got last
year but as a part of its Delhi vision, the party has announced education loan
for every student in Delhi after Class XII for a period of six years, including
one year for job start and setting up of 20 new Delhi Government colleges in
outer Delhi in partnership with villages.
The Modi effect was also visible
in the announcement of “Delhi Skill Mission” through which it hopes to create
five-seven lakh jobs in five years. Whatever the motivation, AAP has tried to
reinvent itself and has used the medium of youth. It knows that every family
has a youth in Delhi and they
influence the decision making of the family. This is clever politics ahead of
the polls. So when AAP leader Yogendra Yadav challenges BJP and the Congress to
spell out their agenda for the youth, he has struck the right notes.
Skill development and income
generation is another focus area of the party that has chalked out a
well-thought out roadmap for the same. To bridge the skill-gap in the national
Capital, the party will not only promote vocational education and skill
development in schools and colleges, but also create innovative and private
start up accelerators to provide support to entrepreneurs.
Apart from spelling out its
agenda, AAP is first off the blocks to declare its list of candidates, giving
them enough time to prepare for the polls. The remaining names would be
declared anytime now and if there are changes, it can be made in the run up to
the polls.
Clearly, Congress and BJP are far
behind as of now. For AAP, Delhi Assembly polls are a matter of life and death.
If it does well, it survives politically; if it doesn’t the epitaph writers are
ready.
Basking in the glory of Modi, BJP
hopes to do well and form the Government on its own by crossing the magic
figure of 35. However, unlike the last time when Dr Harsh Vardhan was the chief
ministerial candidate, the party has refrained from announcing any names. A
section of the party believes that after the ENT specialist from Krishna Nagar,
Dr Harsh Vardhan was divested of the Health Ministry and given a lighter charge
in Modi Cabinet, he could well be brought in as the chief ministerial candidate
again.
This will obviously give a fillip
to the party’s campaign as he is acceptable to all sections in the party.
Besides, this, BJP will also have to come out with a specific agenda for Delhi
and not limit itself to the vision of Modi alone as local factors do play a
significant role in the final outcome. To give a leg up to the preparations,
BJP’s different morchas and cells are organising workers’ meetings in different
areas and ongoing membership campaign is being intensified. But obviously, the
trump card remains Modi and BJP has decided that the work he has initiated
after coming to power in May would be made into a poll issue.
Coming back to the Congress, clearly
it is nursing its wound, inflicted everywhere. It will take time for the party
to recoup and martial its resources. Even the staunchest Congress supporter
admits this. Sheila Dikshit, who lost last year, was just a symptom of the
disease plaguing the party. She obviously can’t be the face of the party for
the assembly polls. Ajay Maken would also prefer to remain in the AICC as
General Secretary rather than head for the Assembly polls where a defeat is
certain.
I earnestly hope that Congress
organises a brain storming session spanning over several days where free and
frank opinion is exchanged within the party and it comes out with ideas and
strategy to suit the changing times in all States and the country.
It is too early to predict the
outcome of Delhi polls. A lot of
water will flow down the Yamuna in the next few weeks when the campaign picks
up; a lot of dirty linen will be washed publicly. Several strategies will be
drawn and then redrawn. Many skeletons will come out of the cupboards. For BJP,
Delhi is no longer as important as
it was in 2013 and will only cement its base for forward march, for AAP it’s a
question of political revival and survival; and for Congress it will show
whether it still has the spirit to fight or has even lost that. (November 17, 2014 )
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