Amitabh Shukla | Chandigarh
For the first time in Haryana,
there would be two firsts — a serious three-cornered contest and the BJP
emerging as a contender for power without any alliance. Opinion Polls may
suggest a hung Assembly but the support extended by influential Dera Sacha
Sauda to the BJP at the last minute has helped it significantly. The 90-member
State Assembly could see a close contest between the BJP and the INLD with the
ruling Congress effectively pushed to the third slot.
Issues and Factors
Robert Vadra-DLF land deal:
This has become the bugbear of the Bhupinder Singh Hooda Government. Despite
Congress’ spirited defence, the issue is stuck with the electorate with the BJP
going hammer and tongs against it. The public perception that Vadra, the
son-in-law of Congress president Sonia Gandhi, benefited immensely and minted
money has gone too deep in the electorate to shake off whatever logic the
Congress invented to justify the deal.
Policy on Change in Land Use
(CLU): Anyone familiar with the State and who has been in the
hinterland would be aware how CLU was used to benefit the chosen ones. Hooda
himself was the Minister concerned of Town and Country Planning Department that
decides which land should be converted from agricultural to residential or
commercial, for over nine years. In urban Haryana CLU has become synonymous
with favouritism and corruption and the BJP has used it to good effect. The BJP
highlighted how brokers, property dealers and builders benefited during the two
terms of Hooda.
Reservation for Jats: The
dominant community of the State, comprising around one fourth of the
population, was declared OBC even as only a section demanded it. This ate into
the benefits of other OBCs in the State who have reacted rather strongly. While
Jats, now OBCs, are least bothered whether they are counted as OBCs or not, the
other genuinely backward communities have made it a poll issue.
Khaps: As always, they
are divided on political lines with some supporting the INLD, others the
Congress and now even the BJP has made inroads into them. Prime Minister
Narendra Modi had a word of praise for them, bringing smiles on the Khap
leaders, who have been wrongly maligned over the years for supporting honour
killings.
Dera Sacha Sauda: The
last minute announcement of the influential Sirsa-based Dera led by the
colourful Baba Gurmeet Ram Raheem to support BJP is expected to help in
achieving the “Mission 60 Plus” of the party. The Dera, hitherto known to have
a soft corner towards Congress, has a massive following in several parts of the
state, particularly in the belt touching Punjab and its
support base cuts across caste lines though the marginalised, poor and Dalits
are its mainstay.
Parties
BJP: A resurgent BJP led
in 52 Assembly segments in the May Lok Sabha elections as compared to four
segments in the outgoing Assembly, triggering a wave of optimism in the party.
With Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressing over a dozen meetings in the State,
the party hopes to form the Government on its own. In the GT
Road belt and the urban areas of the State, there
is a groundswell of support for the party. The party has also tried to forge a
non-Jat caste alliance for the first time after Bhajan Lal. “There is a massive
pro-BJP vote in the State and that is why we have given the slogan of Mission
60 plus,” said State party president Ram Bilas Sharma.
INLD: Riding a sympathy
wave due to incarceration of its chief Om Prakash Chautala, the main Opposition
party hopes to form the next Government with the support of smaller parties and
Independents. Chautala’s rallies, before being sent back to Tihar Jail, saw a
good response in the Jat belt of the State and elsewhere. In the rural areas
(Bangar belt) and Jat hinterland, the party is expected to do well.
Congress: Double
anti-incumbency in the State as well as the Centre has taken the sheen out of
the Congress and the Hooda Government. A series of high profile desertions in
the run-up to the polls, opposition within the Government by Ministers and
factionalism in the State unit of Congress has made the matters worse for the
ruling party. Except the Deswali belt (Rohtak, Jhajjar and surrounding areas)
from where Hooda has support base intact, the party’s base has eroded
significantly. “There is no anti-incumbency. We have performed and done
something for every section of society,” said Hooda, putting on a brave face.
HJC, HJCP and HLP: The
smaller regional parties like Haryana Janhit Congress led by Kuldeep Bishnoi,
Jan Chetna Party led by Venod Sharma and Haryana Lokhit Party led by Gopal
Kanda have tried to make it a three and a half way contest. They hope that in
case there is a hung Assembly, like that of 2009, they will be able to play the
kingmaker. “We will extend support to like minded parties if there is a hung
Assembly,” Bishnoi said.
Caste combination: The
Jats dominate the political landscape of the State with a population of 25 per
cent. Their support is divided but the INLD seems to be their favourite except
the Rohtak belt. Dalits comprise 20 per cent of the population and this time
their support is divided between the BJP, the INLD and the Congress. Sikhs
comprise around 7 per cent and despite the Congress bringing a Bill for
separate Gurdwara, they are supporting either the INLD or the BJP. Punjabis are
around 6 per cent and their support for the BJP is visible on the ground along
with that of the Vaishya community which has a five per cent population. Ahir
community (5 per cent) in south Haryana has shifted their allegiance to the BJP
after Rao Inderjeet joined the party along with the Gujjars who comprise 4 per
cent of the population. Others include Meo Muslims (3.5 per cent) who are
divided between the INLD and the Congress, Sainis, Rajputs, Rors, Kumhars and
others. (October 15, 2014 )
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