VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
The battlelines have been drawn
in the northern region with the major parties announcing their candidates on
most of the seats. The pre-1966 Punjab, which today comprises of Punjab,
Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Chandigarh have 28 seats and except in the hill
state of Himachal, the main contender for power in New Delhi — BJP — is banking
more on its allies rather than its own strength here.
In Punjab ,
BJP has played its trump card by bringing in Leader of Opposition in Rajya
Sabha, Arun Jaitley as the candidate to replace the ever sulking Navjot Singh
Sidhu. As a senior leader of the party, Jaitley would not only act as a binding
force for the faction ridden State BJP but is also expected to easily win the Amritsar
seat. The holy city is a safe seat for Jaitley given its past electoral
behavior, demographic composition and alliance with the Akali Dal.
Had Sidhu been the party
candidate, multiple anti-incumbency along with hostile State Government would
have ensured his defeat. Even in the 2009 polls, he won by a vastly reduced
margin and after the victory he hardly visited the city, favoring the
commentator’s box in a cricket stadium or TV studios of a comedy show. Even as
he refused to visit the city, he kept on criticising the Akali Dal-BJP State
Government, making enemies in not only the Amritsar
unit of the BJP but also Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal and powerful
leader of the Majha belt and Revenue Minister Bikram Singh Majithia.
The BJP has only three of the 13
seats in the alliance quota and in the 2009 polls; Sidhu was the only BJP MP
from the State. Given the trend in the State, there are three seats as of now
where outcome can be safely announced — Bathinda for Harsimrat Badal of SAD,
Patiala for Preneet Kaur of Congress and Amritsar for Jaitley of the BJP. In
the remaining 10 seats, the contest is expected to be close with the margin of
victory or loss expected to be within 2-3 per cent of the votes polled.
Given the historical arithmetic
in recent elections where margin of victory or loss has been rather thin and
respective strength of Congress and BJP-SAD in various pockets and in
communities, issues cropping up in campaigning would be crucial to determine
the outcome. In addition, presence of strong AAP candidates in three seats,
influence of BSP in certain pockets of the Doaba region, the diktat of Dera
Sacha Sauda in Malwa, role of an Independent in Ludhiana
and the untested Congress-PPP alliance could also marginally influence the
otherwise straight contest between Congress on one hand and SAD-BJP on the
other.
There was a section in Punjab
Congress which felt that even though Manmohan Singh has announced that he would
not become Prime Minister again (in any case, there was no chance of this), he
could have contested one last Lok Sabha election from any seat of the State to
buttress the chances of Congress not only in the State but also in the northern
region. But when the Prime Minister did not even campaign for his party in the
Assembly polls two years ago, this was clearly a wishful thinking.
It is 8-5 in favour of the Congress at present.
It could be 8-5 or 7-6 this time round in favour of the SAD-BJP coalition this
time round. The perception that Akali Dal, being a regional party, seems less
bothered about the Lok Sabha polls than the Congress for which it is a question
of survival in the State is growing. The choice of SAD candidates has been
rather uninspiring, suggesting that it was just going through the motions of an
election.
Himachal Pradesh is the only
State in the northern region where BJP and Congress have a straight fight on
hand. This has practically been a two-party state for the last four decades and
this time it is no different despite an insignificant regional party here and
an AAP candidate there. Of the four seats, there is little doubt that Mandi
would again send Pratibha Singh, wife of Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh to
Parliament. She was elected in a byelection around nine months ago by a huge
margin and there is no reason why she won’t get elected even this time, more so
when BJP found it difficult to even zero in on a candidate for a long time.
The other seat where the outcome
can be safely announced much before the polls is Hamirpur where the only curiosity
would perhaps be the margin of victory of BJP’s Anurag Thakur, son of former
Chief Minister Prem Kumar Dhumal. Though Congress has fielded Independent MLA
Rajendra Rana, a former supporter of Dhumal-turned-supporter of Virbhadra
Singh, Thakur is on a safe home turf.
At Kangra, the veteran of many a
battle, Shanta Kumar came out of retirement and is in the fray from BJP. This
adds weight to the party’s campaign but give the trend of the Assembly polls,
BJP would have to work hard and project a united face to defeat Chander Kumar
of Congress. The remaining set of Shimla could be a case of touch and go.
Though BJP has a sitting MP in Virendra Kashyap here, it is considered a
traditional Congress stronghold. Of course, if a Modi wave blows across the nation,
then nothing can be said otherwise both Congress and BJP are equally matched
here.
At present, it is 3-1 in favour of the BJP. This time it
could be honours shared equally, a draw at 2-2 each. The only seat of Chandigarh
offers an interesting tussle. Congress has again fielded the four-time MP Pawan
Kumar Bansal, fighting hard to dispel the public perception that he was
involved in the cash for job scam of the Railways. Had the scam not broken out,
Bansal could have won easily given his track record, accessibility and bringing
new trains to the city.
But now, it would be tough
tackling two candidates from the showbiz — Kirron Kher of BJP and Gul Panag of
AAP. While Panag brings more glamour to the contest and may grab more eyeballs
in campaign, given the structure of AAP in the city, withdrawal of Savita
Bhatti from the contest and internal division in the fledgling party, she faces
an uphill task and would help the task of Kirron by dividing the votes of
Congress supporters.
The most interesting political
battle in the region would obviously be in Haryana. This is one State which was
ripe for a party like AAP, riding an anti corruption bandwagon as the Bhupinder
Singh Hooda Government was mired in one controversy after the other while the
top leadership of the main Opposition INLD is in jail after being convicted on
corruption charges. But except Yogendra Yadav, AAP neither has a candidate nor
an organisation to cash in on the sentiments.
Ironically, even the BJP is not
in a position to pin down Congress and INLD as it neither has candidates nor
presence in the rural pockets of the State. Its tie-up with the Kuldeep
Bishnoi-led Haryana Janhit Congress is more cosmetic than real on the ground.
The HJC hardly has any presence outside Adampur and Hisar. What made matters
worse was Sushma Swaraj opposing strong Congress leader Venod Sharma’s joining
HJC.
Interestingly, BJP was so short
of candidates in Haryana that it had to borrow 3 from the Congress in its first
list of seven — Rao Inderjit from Gurgaon, Dharambir Singh from
Bhiwani-Mahendragarh and Ramesh Kaushik from Sonepat. Clearly, Haryana’s political scenario is a
quagmire of possibilities and a nightmare for the pollsters as of now. All the
parties be it Congress, INLD or BJP are in one crisis or the other at this
point of time even though polls would be held here in the first phase on April
10.
In a State where loyalties are
shifting at a fast rate, candidates are being selected at the last moment and
the political mood is still hazy, electioneering after withdrawal of
nominations would only decide which way the wind is blowing. As most of the
opinion polls have given 6-7 of the 10 seats to BJP, I am a little surprised as
to the basis of such a result given the ground realities. Again, unless there
is a strong Modi wave, BJP would be hard pressed to get so many seats. Of
course, the INLD here is ready to support Modi post polls with whatever figure
it has in the Lok Sabha.
At present Congress has a
staggering 9-1 result in its favor. It will remain a dream for the party this
time. (March 17, 2014)
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