VIEWPOINT
AMITABH SHUKLA
All opinion polls held so far
point to the decimation of the Congress in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The only
point on which these polls differ is about statistics — whether the ruling
party would be in double digits or will it manage to cross the 100 figure mark.
But these polls are unanimous that the party founded in 1885 is heading for its
worst performance ever since the first elections were held under a new
Constitution in 1952.
If the opinion polls prove to be
correct, the Congress mangers would indeed find it interesting to analyse and
dissect all the political events which took place between 2009 and 2014. Of
course, none of the analysis would come out in the open but they would be
discussed amongst the party circles. In fact, privately the senior Congress
leaders are already analysing what they could have done better and where they
went horribly wrong in the last five years.
One of the major reasons for the
poor polls prospects of the party is the demystification of the Gandhi family
and law of diminishing returns applying to the first family of the Congress. In
the last 10 years, people of the country perhaps realised that giving perks of
power to the Gandhi family without them taking any responsibility will not help
in a democratic set up. More so, when the youth dominate the electorate now and
the number of first time voters is huge. For them, there is no value attached
to a surname and this is becoming apparent now in places like Delhi
where a Kejriwal can upset a Dikshit or her boss, a Gandhi.
For the youth of 2014, a Gandhi would not be able to
get power without working his way up through the system. Till now, they have
seen Rahul Gandhi enjoying all the respect in the party, perks and position
simply due to his surname and not due to any big political idea, vision or
thought that would propel the country forward. The first time voters and the
youth saw in the last 10 years how Rahul Gandhi missed the chance not once but
repeatedly and refused to convert the massive Congress infrastructure into a winning
idea. Talk to the youths across the country, some even in the NSUI, and they
will tell you that the only qualification of Rahul becoming the de facto prime
ministerial candidate of the Congress was his surname and nothing else. This
section believes what Narendra Modi and Arvind Kejriwal are saying but not what
Rahul is saying or doing. The reason is simple. Rahul does not inspire
confidence for a new India
and his vision is too outdated, reminiscent of the 1950s, 60s and 1970s when
glorification of poverty made you victorious in elections.
Watching television commercials
of Bharat Nirman and listening to the promotions on FM radio about the changes
which took place in the last 10 years, I was left wondering how and why
falsehood was being peddled about progress and development.
I keep going to my hometown and
my native village in Bihar and hardly find anything
different in 2014 as compared to what it had been in 1994. Several stretches of
roads, particularly National Highways, seemed to be in far worse condition than
it had been in my childhood (NH-28A), nearest ATM was in the bank branch and it
too was non-functional, the nearest airport was in Patna, around 260 kms away,
there was no sign of any private investment or job creation.
Come on, why peddle falsehood
like this and who will vote for you in the rural areas of the country if you
continue to humiliate them through blatantly false advertisements. BJP was
defeated due to "India Shining" campaign in 2004. Instead of learning
from the mistakes, you are simply repeating them. In fact, in his entire 2009
campaign for the Congress, Rahul had severely castigated BJP for creating two India
- shining India
and non-shining India .
Now, he is himself promoting the same concept. Why bank on an idea which has
been defeated by the people?
Corruption and inflation have
always been poll issues and will again be relevant. But you do not win or lose
elections merely on these. Lack of a big idea definitely costs and it is here
where the Congress is down in its popularity ratings.
Not that the BJP has a great idea
and a vision but Modi is showing promise and remains an untested phenomenon at
the national level which the people are lapping up, at least this is what the
opinion polls suggest. The demystification of Modi is yet to happen and this is
helping the BJP to get perhaps the largest number of seats ever even as the
Congress is heading to get the lowest number of seats ever.
Congress could also ponder over
Manmohan Singh's ineffectiveness as Prime Minister and how it contributed to
the sliding of its popularity in five years. Singh, a Sikh, hails from Punjab
and members of his extended family still live here. I failed to understand all
these years why didn't he contest a Lok Sabha election from the State.
I bet, he could have easily won a
seat and even the Akali Dal could have decided not to field a candidate against
him as the Prime Minister was going to be from Punjab .
But he didn't do so and that perhaps is the reason why Sikhs in Punjab
do not identify with him. His poor communication skills could be a reason but
the bigger factor was that he failed to assert himself at any point in his
career in politics.
The bureaucratisation of the post of Prime
Minister was complete in his tenure like never before and this contributed to
the weakening of the party. Despite a Sikh Prime Minister, Congress lost the
Punjab Assembly polls in 2012, an election which it was widely expected to win,
triggering the downslide from which it is yet to recover. (February 3, 2014 )
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