Amitabh Shukla / Chandigarh
The battle lines have been firmly drawn. The Hisar Lok Sabha bye-election in Haryana would prove to be a litmus test for not only Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda but also the newly formed alliance between the Haryana Janhit Congress and the BJP.
Congress has gone in for a conventional politician by nominating Jai Prakash who has won three times and lost an equal number of times and not for Brijendra Singh, an IAS officer of the 1998 batch who was aspiring to contest from the party. Brijendra could well have fitted the slot, envisaged by party general secretary Rahul Gandhi of a well educated and young candidate interested in politics. But that was not to be.
Jai Prakash, who came third in the 2009 polls, is the choice of Hooda as he did not apparently want Brijendra, son of arch rival in state politics, Birender Singh, to get the prized ticket and get a further foothold in the state. The logic, rivals argue, is that there can only be one father-son duo – Hooda and his son Deepinder and not Birender and Brijendra, at least in the near future. Though there is a mother-daughter duo – Minister and MLA Kiran Chaudhary and her daughter Shruti Chaudhary, MP. But they do not pose any threat to Hooda in state politics.
If Jai Prakash wins, Hooda gets the bouquets and Congress another member to add to the wafer thin position UPA has in the Lok Sabha. If he loses, Hooda supporters would argue that the seat was in any case with the opposition and does not reflect the popularity of the Chief Minister. It is practically heads I win, tails you lose for Hooda, well entrenched in his second term in the state.
For the HJC-BJP combine, it is a battle of survival in the state politics. If the alliance loses its first election, it could well sow seeds of discontent between the two alliance partners and its future could become a popular debating point in the politically vibrant state. Moreover, the seat became vacant after the death of Bhajan Lal, a political stalwart and if his son and the President of HJC, Kuldeep Bishnoi loses, it could well mean that the legacy of the leader is lost.
On the other hand, if the HJC-BJP alliance, looking for the consolidation of non-Jat votes, wins, it would indicate which way the political wind is blowing in the state. As the two parties – one national and one state – have a long-term partnership, the morale of the workers would get a boost and would cement the third front in the bipolar politics of the state. Though Lok Sabha elections are scheduled in May 2014 and Assembly polls in November the same year, the two parties have already divided the seats amongst themselves. BJP would be the big brother in the Lok Sabha elections and would contest 8 of the 10 seats while for the Assembly polls, both are equal partners, contesting 45 seats each.
For the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) candidate Ajay Chautala, there is nothing to lose except the face. The INLD posed a serious threat to the Congress in the 2009 assembly polls, forcing Hooda to poach the MLAs of HJC and get support of independents to form the government. Even on this seat, its candidate Sampat Singh lost only by around 7000 votes to Bhajan Lal in the last elections. Singh is now in the Congress and an MLA. If Chautala, the grandson of Devi Lal and son of Om Prakash Chautala wins, the INLD would see a ray of hope for the next assembly polls. If not, it could well be a long time in the opposition for the Jat centred and dominated party.
The Bahujan Samaj Party which polled around 90,000 votes in the last Lok Sabha polls is likely to stay out of the bye-election on October 13. All the three parties would be vying for the dalit votes if the BSP does not field a candidate and it could well be the HJC candidate who will benefit given the distrust which a section of the community has shown towards the Congress in the aftermath of the Mirchipur incident.
Hisar could well be only one seat in the state which is going to polls, but given the political positioning of the parties and the importance they are attaching to it, the outcome could change the dynamics of state politics. The outcome has the potential to set the tone for the remaining term of Hooda. (Sept 19, 2011)
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